Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[worthingseagull123]

Close all schools and unis, mandatory mask wearing inside and out, limits on exercise, implant "intestinators" like in that film Fortress https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fortress_(1992_film)

Facemasks inside the home?

 

[Blue3]

The PM speaking on the BBC's Andrew Marr programme this morning ,said ministers

"could not have reasonably predicted that the new, more transmissible variant of the virus that has emerged over the autumn"

Which part of that sentence is true we have we have constantly been told that viruses mutate all the time so are successful while others are not for example if the virus mutated into one that killed more of its hosts it would probably end its own chances of survival, equally a mutation that made it less transmissible would also be less successful indeed the virus sa raison d'exister reason for existence is to reproduce and flourish, therefore predicting that this mutation was going to happen was an inevitability, therefore the only truth in the sentence is when he said "this Autumn"

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

The PM speaking on the BBC's Andrew Marr programme this morning ,said ministers

"could not have reasonably predicted that the new, more transmissible variant of the virus that has emerged over the autumn"

Which part of that sentence is true we have we have constantly been told that viruses mutate all the time so are successful while others are not for example if the virus mutated into one that killed more of its hosts it would probably end its own chances of survival, equally a mutation that made it less transmissible would also be less successful indeed the virus sa raison d'exister reason for existence is to reproduce and flourish, therefore predicting that this mutation was going to happen was an inevitability, therefore the only truth in the sentence is when he said "this Autumn"

It was found earlier than Autumn, so even that isnt true.

 

[Poojah]

The PM speaking on the BBC's Andrew Marr programme this morning ,said ministers

"could not have reasonably predicted that the new, more transmissible variant of the virus that has emerged over the autumn"

Which part of that sentence is true we have we have constantly been told that viruses mutate all the time so are successful while others are not for example if the virus mutated into one that killed more of its hosts it would probably end its own chances of survival, equally a mutation that made it less transmissible would also be less successful indeed the virus sa raison d'exister reason for existence is to reproduce and flourish, therefore predicting that this mutation was going to happen was an inevitability, therefore the only truth in the sentence is when he said "this Autumn"

I don’t know much about the evolution of viruses, but I assume they follow the same trend that nature in general does, i.e. random accidents which become more prevalent as and when mutations have traits that are advantageous for the species.

Assuming I’m vaguely correct, it does seem logical to expect an occurrence such as this to happen at some point. More to the point, such is the rate of transmission and therefore replication, it seems sensible to expect further mutations to take place which favour the virus - for instance a mutation which caused a meaningful increase in the asymptomatic incubation period could be absolutely catastrophic.

The more it replicates, the more likely such an eventuality. And yet again, we appear to be crossing our fingers and hoping for the best rather than preparing for the worst and taking practical action to mitigate such an eventuality. Sadly, as a result yet more tragic consequences seem likely.

 

[beorhthelm]

The PM speaking on the BBC's Andrew Marr programme this morning ,said ministers

"could not have reasonably predicted that the new, more transmissible variant of the virus that has emerged over the autumn"

Which part of that sentence is true we have we have constantly been told that viruses mutate all the time so are successful while others are not for example if the virus mutated into one that killed more of its hosts it would probably end its own chances of survival, equally a mutation that made it less transmissible would also be less successful indeed the virus sa raison d'exister reason for existence is to reproduce and flourish, therefore predicting that this mutation was going to happen was an inevitability, therefore the only truth in the sentence is when he said "this Autumn"

are you asking if its reasonable for a minister to know there would be a variant or know one would be more infectious? there are hundred of variants, dozens in the UK. of these several may have been more infectious, may be less. an expert in virology wouldn't be able to tell you, in advance, which would be more transmissible or by what degree. nor can they say there will be a more transmissible variant, only a probability, based on observations, which in a new strain of virus is vague. it possible that the source strain is as near infectious as it can be and all variants are less to. so how on earth would we expect a minister knowing sweet FA, to predict anything?

what government and government departments should be doing is making contingency plans and having some sort of response to what happens. this is the main failing, with departments and agenies apparently bereft of ideas of how to respond to a pandemic, and gormless politicans without the wit to kick their arse.

 

[Blue3]

are you asking if its reasonable for a minister to know there would be a variant or know one would be more infectious? there are hundred of variants, dozens in the UK. of these several may have been more infectious, may be less. an expert in virology wouldn't be able to tell you, in advance, which would be more transmissible or by what degree. nor can they say there will be a more transmissible variant, only a probability, based on observations, which in a new strain of virus is vague. it possible that the source strain is as near infectious as it can be and all variants are less to. so how on earth would we expect a minister knowing sweet FA, to predict anything?

what government and government departments should be doing is making contingency plans and having some sort of response to what happens. this is the main failing, with departments and agenies apparently bereft of ideas of how to respond to a pandemic, and gormless politicans without the wit to kick their arse.

Yes I do think it's reasonable that Ministers should have known that a variant of the virus that was similar to the one that has appeared and it is obvious to all of us further mutations will happen most will be unsuccessful as they will not allow the virus to flourish such as killing everyone while those mutations that are successful are ones that keep the host alive and for the virus to reproduce and flourish, was this variant or one like it predictable yes and to suggest as the PM did that Ministers were not aware is rediculous

 

[Bakero]

Facemasks inside the home?

That was genuinely considered by the Spanish government at one point last year.

 

[beorhthelm]

...was this variant or one like it predictable yes and to suggest as the PM did that Ministers were not aware is rediculous

you're saying the ministers should predict that which the experts in virology and epidemiology cant and didnt predict. or saying they should take a worse case scenario approach, which some would like (lock down for months or years). see how many other countries predicted and prepared for this. none did, hence a knee-jerk close the border from France and two days to decide on a response.

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

I thought the government had possibly started to sort themselves out and indeed were doing fairly well on the vaccine front but the lack of foresight and unwillingness to make big decisions is starting to shine through again.

There have been warning signs for weeks but the government are doing nothing. They’re just following the same incremental strategy that has led us here. Where’s the communication with the public? We’re getting no messages about the full symptoms, no press conferences, no real explanations of vaccine changes, no reference to short, medium or long term plans. Nothing.

 

[worthingseagull123]

That was genuinely considered by the Spanish government at one point last year.

Bizarre

 

[Rugrat]

I thought the government had possibly started to sort themselves out and indeed were doing fairly well on the vaccine front but the lack of foresight and unwillingness to make big decisions is starting to shine through again.

There have been warning signs for weeks but the government are doing nothing. They’re just following the same incremental strategy that has led us here. Where’s the communication with the public? We’re getting no messages about the full symptoms, no press conferences, no real explanations of vaccine changes, no reference to short, medium or long term plans. Nothing.

In my view it's a feck up of immense proportions already. For weeks they have known the vaccine was imminent yet there's been no visible preparation. Sites kitted out, volunteers recruited, army and others at the ready.

I can see no valid reason why, when Oxford was approved, that we weren't in a mass programme within 48 hours and operating on a 24x7 basis. Indeed the only sense I get is we're still pissing around with stuff that could and should have been sorted weeks ago.

'Fiddle while Rome burns' doesn't even come close imo

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

In my view it's a feck up of immense proportions already. For weeks they have known the vaccine was imminent yet there's been no visible preparation. Sites kitted out, volunteers recruited, army and others at the ready.

I can see no valid reason why, when Oxford was approved, that we weren't in a mass programme within 48 hours and operating on a 24x7 basis. Indeed the only sense I get is we're still pissing around with stuff that could and should have been sorted weeks ago.

'Fiddle while Rome burns' doesn't even come close imo

It seems that they are hiding something.

Perhaps not enough vaccine was ordered that arrives before April ?

So they are deliberately delaying to stop the bungle becoming apparent ?

 

[Bakero]

Bizarre

Fortunately, it wasn't considered for long. People here have been pretty compliant but that would've been a bridge too far, I reckon.

 

[worthingseagull123]

Fortunately, it wasn't considered for long. People here have been pretty compliant but that would've been a bridge too far, I reckon.

Completely unenforcable and generally pointless.

 

[macbeth]

The r rate of this new strain is as much as 0.7 higher than the old one (s). So we would need to do the equivalent of getting the old R down to 0.3 just to maintain the level of cases (which we didn't get close to in the March lockdown). We need urgent measures, aassive national stay at home order. Only the very essential should be leaving their homes. It will cost money and as soon as we get back to some sort of normal in the next 2-3 years we will need tax rises for all to start paying this debt back, but that's a long way in the future, the immediate concern is protecting the NHS and saving lives.

As much as I support the lockdowns, a 2-3 year period of them is totally unfeasible and won't happen.

 

[Bakero]

Completely unenforcable.

Definitely.

And generally pointless.

Perhaps not. I'm in no way advocating it but you're less likely to transmit it to your family and friends if your masked up.

 

[worthingseagull123]

Definitely.



Perhaps not. I'm in no way advocating it but you're less likely to transmit it to your family and friends if your masked up.

I live alone. People don’t come round.

Pointless for me. Sorry I should have been clearer.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

As much as I support the lockdowns, a 2-3 year period of them is totally unfeasible and won't happen.

3 weeks to flatten the curve to almost a year means a few months to a year isnt that much of unrealistic leap which would make 2 years.

 

[vegster]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eqzb7CBW8AAXY5q?format=jpg&name=900x900



This certainly makes some sense now.

 

[Motogull]

3 weeks to flatten the curve to almost a year means a few months to a year isnt that much of unrealistic leap which would make 2 years.

I remember it as three weeks to 'turn the tide'. More random words falling out of the messy haired bungle****'s mouth.