Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Bozza]

And I'm sorry to say, that for a very smart likeable chap, I find you utterly naïve at times.

Unless, of course, it was Whitty and Valance who decided to do that today and then got the Government to agree

Well, of course it's part of a broader plan that will have heavy governmental influence - I'd not suggest otherwise.

But they simply can't win with you.

If they had stood in front of the cameras today - you'd be ridiculing.

They kept on the sidelines and you're ridiculing.

If this approach means, across the country, more people sit up, take notice and try to act responsibly then it don't see how that can be a bad thing.

 

[Mellotron]

antibody testing isnt outdated, its standard medical practice. T-cells are not normally used for direct identification of infection, it can be done but more complex procedure as i understand it.

Suggesting antibodies are the only way people are protected simply is not true though.

We know that now, and have known it for 4 months. I appreciate it's not easy to explain but I don't think simply lying to the public is the answer.

 

[pb21]

It's doing my ****ing head in that they're still only talking about antibodies and not T cells. This is science that was outdated 4 months ago!

What's the T-cell immunity in the population though, is it 1, 5, 10, 20, 50%?

It could be significant or it could be negligible.

 

[Fitzcarraldo]

Touched in briefly above but Oxford Uni scientists believe a third of Covid ‘deaths’ in July and Aug were actually because of something else. How many people actually are dying of this thing? If you then took the care home scandal away from the numbers what are we actually left with? Is it enough to justify the society we are being forced to become?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...covid-19-victims-July-August-died-causes.html

Whilst it might suit your view, that is a callous counterfactual argument to make. When you check a member of your family into a care home they aren't being removed from our society.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Well, of course it's part of a broader plan that will have heavy governmental influence - I'd not suggest otherwise.

But they simply can't win with you.

If they had stood in front of the cameras today - you'd be ridiculing.

They kept on the sidelines and you're ridiculing.

If this approach means, across the country, more people sit up, take notice and try to act responsibly then it don't see how that can be a bad thing.

You believe that there was no Minister so it was non-political. I believe there was no Minister because then there would have been no excuse for not answering questions (I'm sure you know the rules governing civil servants).

I agree completely that anything which helps control this thing is good. Today's broadcast, lockdowns, masks, distancing, you will never hear me say anything against any measure that will help. I believe this thing is very real, very deadly and that the most conservative approach is always the right way to deal with something like this, where there are so many unknowns.

However, a whole lot of things which are known and would really make an impact and lessen the need for these measures have been known for a long time now. Months and billions have been spent, and time and time again there has been a failure to deliver. This directly impacts the measures that have to be taken to control the virus and the number of deaths. Whilst supporting all the measures we are taking, I am going to highlight every failure as one directly effects the other and, more importantly, causes more people to die.

It would be irresponsible of me to simply ignore these continual failures

 

[beorhthelm]

Suggesting antibodies are the only way people are protected simply is not true though.

We know that now, and have known it for 4 months. I appreciate it's not easy to explain but I don't think simply lying to the public is the answer.

they didnt say antibodies are the only protection. they talk about antibodies because its simpler and sounder science. t-cell response is less well undefined area, so leave it out for public consumption.

 

[Mellotron]

they didnt say antibodies are the only protection. they talk about antibodies because its simpler and sounder science. t-cell response is less well undefined area, so leave it out for public consumption.

They absolutely made out like antibodies are the only thing that matters/stops someone being susceptible. It's bad science.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

I thought the broadcast gained considerably by not having a politician present. The message was of a clear and present danger, and the midday news broadcasts, and presumably for the next 24 hours and beyond will be forced to focus on the words of the top medical and scientific experts rather than have a politician possibly muddy the waters and the clarity of message

 

[Pretty Plnk Fairy]

Dont beleive a word of what was said on the tv this morning by the egg heads as it was on the BbC


Regrads

DF

 

[Bozza]

You believe that there was no Minister so it was non-political. I believe there was no Minister because then there would have been no excuse for not answering questions (I'm sure you know the rules governing civil servants).

I agree completely that anything which helps control this thing is good. Today's broadcast, lockdowns, masks, distancing, you will never hear me say anything against any measure that will help. I believe this thing is very real, very deadly and that the most conservative approach is always the right way to deal with something like this, where there are so many unknowns.

However, a whole lot of things which are known and would really make an impact and lessen the need for these measures have been known for a long time now. Months and billions have been spent, and time and time again there has been a failure to deliver. This directly impacts the measures that have to be taken to control the virus and the number of deaths. Whilst supporting all the measures we are taking, I am going to highlight every failure as one directly effects the other and, more importantly, causes more people to die.

It would be irresponsible of me to simply ignore these continual failures

All valid and worthy of discussion. But it wasn't the discussion I was entering into. I was responding to your (possibly rhetorical) question:

I wonder why it was left to the civil servants for this broadcast?​

Despite my disdain for Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings, and despite knowing today will have been highly choreographed, I'm able to see today's briefing as a positive in our national fight against Covid-19. I hope it worked. Your posts have me doubting that.

 

[Bozza]

They absolutely made out like antibodies are the only thing that matters/stops someone being susceptible. It's bad science.

Do you think there's a few T-cell papers on their desks that Whitty and Vallance haven't got round to reading yet or something?

Or, perhaps, in a briefing designed to leave it in no uncertain terms that we need to be very careful about our collective actions, it probably wasn't the place to dangle a T-cell immunity get-out-of-jail card for those who seek to ignore the guidance?

I reckon both Whitty and Vallance knows far more about T-cells than I and you do. For a start, I suspect they didn't just learn the term over the last few months.

 

[Mellotron]

Do you think there's a few T-cell papers on their desks that Whitty and Vallance haven't got round to reading yet or something?

Or, perhaps, in a briefing designed to leave it in no uncertain terms that we need to be very careful about our collective actions, it probably wasn't the place to dangle a T-cell immunity get-out-of-jail card for those who seek to ignore the guidance?

I reckon both Whitty and Vallance knows far more about T-cells than I and you do. For a start, I suspect they didn't just learn the term over the last few months.

So lying and misrepresenting data is all fine and dandy? A lot of people who know far more about T-Cells than you or I do are very, very unhappy about the way "the science is being followed" at the moment. i.e. other scientists and professors who know just as much as Whitty and Vallance - some might even *shock horror* know more than them.

I'm not suggesting for a second you "dangle" it as a get-out-of-jail-free card. But some hint of treating the UK public as people who have a reading age of above 6 would be a start.

 

[Mellotron]

Do you think there's a few T-cell papers on their desks that Whitty and Vallance haven't got round to reading yet or something?

Or, perhaps, in a briefing designed to leave it in no uncertain terms that we need to be very careful about our collective actions, it probably wasn't the place to dangle a T-cell immunity get-out-of-jail card for those who seek to ignore the guidance?

I reckon both Whitty and Vallance knows far more about T-cells than I and you do. For a start, I suspect they didn't just learn the term over the last few months.

[TWEET]1308005483672985600[/TWEET]

Even a cursory study shows the graphs were absolutely all over the place, and full of inconsistencies, poor pre-suppositions, "bad" science if you will.

As David says, if one of his students presented evidence like this, he "would take a very dim view". But it passes muster for some of the most important announcements in our lifetimes, arguably?!

It may be that they want to scare the idiots into taking it all a little more seriously. But something seems amiss. Previously, the noise from the scientists is that the general population has actually been far more compliant than their modelling of lockdown had predicted...

Hmm.

 

[Bozza]

[TWEET]1308005483672985600[/TWEET]

Even a cursory study shows the graphs were absolutely all over the place, and full of inconsistencies, poor pre-suppositions, "bad" science if you will.

As David says, if one of his students presented evidence like this, he "would take a very dim view". But it passes muster for some of the most important announcements in our lifetimes, arguably?!

It may be that they want to scare the idiots into taking it all a little more seriously. But something seems amiss. Previously, the noise from the scientists is that the general population has actually been far more compliant than their modelling of lockdown had predicted...

Hmm.

Have we moved on from T-cells now?

 

[pb21]

[TWEET]1308005483672985600[/TWEET]

Even a cursory study shows the graphs were absolutely all over the place, and full of inconsistencies, poor pre-suppositions, "bad" science if you will.

They did say it wasn't a prediction, just what would happen if it did double every 7 days. TBH that is a bit of a cop out if that isn't what they think will happen.

That must be a political decision though.

 

[Albion Dan]

Anyone get the impression things are being said just to terrify everybody? What is Whittys case rise prediction based on? Certainly not France or Spain!

 

[loz]

A further 10 people who tested positive for coronavirus have died, bringing the total number of confirmed reported deaths in hospitals in England to 29,757.

Patients were aged between 44 and 95 years old. All had known underlying health conditions.

Date of death ranges from 17 to 20 September 2020.

There were four deaths in the North East & Yorkshire, the worst-affected region, followed by the North West, which had three. There was one death recorded in the East of England, London and the Midlands while no deaths were reported in the South East and South West.

 

[pb21]

Anyone get the impression things are being said just to terrify everybody? What is Whittys case rise prediction based on? Certainly not France or Spain!

View attachment 128593

It wasn't a case prediction, they stated this quite clearly.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

It wasn't a case prediction, they stated this quite clearly.

It just comes across as them covering their backs

I was listening on the radio - so I’m happy to have this taken apart -

They said that we could be at 49,000 cases per day by mid Oct ? At peak the first time we had 7,500 per day , their figures suggest 1.4 million cases per month ? We have only had a total of 394,257 cases.

So how many more cases did we have in peak ?

 

[pb21]

It just comes across as them covering their backs

I was listening on the radio - so I’m happy to have this taken apart -

They said that we could be at 49,000 cases per day by mid Oct ? At peak the first time we had 7,500 per day , their figures suggest 1.4 million cases per month ? We have only had a total of 394,257 cases.

So how many more cases did we have in peak ?

I have heard that if we were testing at a similar rate as we are now at the end of March, then it would have been ~80,000 a day.