Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Hi Harry,
Who are the vulnerable minority and how should they be shielded and protected?
Is it just those with underlying probs and the ancients or does it include a 72 year old like me who is in average health for my age?
Just wondering!

The cut off, like all cut offs, is arbitrary. Looking at ONS data, I would set the cut off at 65 (in fact, make it 66 to tally with 'retirement age'. But risk assessments like this are based purely on probabilities, and the decision is based on what 'feels' acceptable. Any dcision made by government will additionally factor in political considerations (i.e., how any decision is likely to go down with voters).

In men there have been almost 5000 Covid related deaths in the 65-74 age group. However the 'Covid related' deaths are only half the number of excess deaths during the peak in April (which are clearly covide related by not recorded as such). So I'd say 10,000 males aged 64-75 died dirctly or indirectly from Covid. Jump to the 75-84 year band the number of deaths double. So we are looking at 20,000 (same calculation). By contrast the equivalent number for those age 14-44 is only 680. Then factor in actual numbers of people: Far more men are aged 14-44 (about 13 million) than 64-75 (3.3 million) or over 75 (about 2 million)!

So you can see the risk of death from Covid increases exponentially with age. That's without factoring in comorbidities (lung disease, hypertension in particular). From the numbers above, risk of Covid death in men jumps from 680 in 13 million for those aged 14 to 44, to 10,000 in 3.3 million (aged 64-75) and 20,000 in 2 million (aged over 75).

From these data, in relative terms, if you are age 64-75, you chance of dying from covid, based on real data, is 58 times higher than if you are aged 14-44. Likewise if you are 75 or over your chance of dying from Covid is 191 times higher than if you are aged 14-44. So the young might feel 191 times less cocky if they were old. Is that worth doubling the risk of infecting an elderly relative, one might ask? Apparently so, judging from the clamour in some wuarters to gt rid of all restrictions.

These numbers don't discriminate on the basis of health so clearly if you are not immunocompromised and have no lung issues your risk will be lower than that of others in your age group, but age seems to be critically important, judging by the very low numbrs of deaths in those under 44.

See https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...glandandwalesprovisional/weekending31july2020 and https://www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/

All the best.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Thats really encouraging, and some people have been saying that the virus is weakening for a month or two now.

I hope you are both right. As I noted months ago, there are dozens of strains of this virus, and all were very similar a couple of months ago. However a successful virus replicates and spreads. It is not advantageous to kill the host so natural selection will result in weaker strains prevailing. This is hlped where the mutation rate of the virus is high (as it seems to be - like the common cold). There is hope that if there is a massive second wave of infection the lethality may be greatly reduced.

That all said, this is all hope and speculation and we really must continue to protect the vulnerable and seek a vaccine until we can be sure that the strains are weakeened. Ironically the more quickly the virus mutates to weaker strains, the harder it will be to make a vaccine (see common cold) but also the less the need for one ('weak' means not lethal to almost all of us).

 

[The Wizard]

Obviously, we also have to factor in we now have much more significant treatment now which will reduce deaths BUT even though in the last few weeks there has been an increase in positive tests, the people in ICU and people in hospital is at a lower level than when we had 400 odd cases per day. Targeted testing certainly finding more mild cases, which is a good thing but I wish the media would make more of the numbers actually severely ill in hospital, rather than the number of cases found.

I guess the alarmist infection number gets more clicks, as has unfortunately been the case throughout.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Another 7000 jobs at marks and Spencer’s to go.

Going well.

 

[BLOCK F]

Another 7000 jobs at marks and Spencer’s to go.

Going well.

I am not surprised and come October/November, things could get really ugly.

 

[The Spanish]

Thought I’d post this here as well as the good news thread, as it’s very intriguing and quite reassuring to see deaths are not rising like they did with infections the first time, it’s very clear targeted testing in hotspots is probably finding many more mild cases now, this is the same in several countries.

Or, the virus has weakened?

View attachment 127232

Could it be that it’s already ripped through a vulnerable population rather than some genetic change in virulence?

 

[Rugrat]

Could it be that it’s already ripped through a vulnerable population rather than some genetic change in virulence?

From everything I read this is the case. The older are still shielding taking precautions the younger aren't.

My daughter of 24 due to come visit today for 3/4 days and can't because she went to a small gathering on Clapham Common Saturday and one lad shows up who knew he had it and didn't tell anyone. It was only when his g/f grilled him later that he owned up. According to my daughter she believes this sort of thing isn't unusual

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

 

[clapham_gull]

View attachment 127291

What I've read they have ignored the lockdown on mass. Most probably far more social then us Brits which led to draconian measures.....

.. which they ignored anyway.

 

[Springal]

I am baffled by the measures still in place and the impact on all this when hospitalisations are so low. How long is life meant to go on hold? I think we need to start getting back to normal, with the older and vulnerable taking precautions but I can't see how the measures in place are appropriate for how serious this thing is at the moment.

I've already heard through work or friends of friends of quite a few people that have taken their own lives through this - and is it really worth it?

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I am baffled by the measures still in place and the impact on all this when hospitalisations are so low. How long is life meant to go on hold? I think we need to start getting back to normal, with the older and vulnerable taking precautions but I can't see how the measures in place are appropriate for how serious this thing is at the moment.

I've already heard through work or friends of friends of quite a few people that have taken their own lives through this - and is it really worth it?

Four from my company have committed suicide.

 

[Birdie Boy]

There has been many reports about people scared to go to the doctors or go for treatment etc. My wife has a large lump on her arm and rang the doctors 9 weeks ago. Doctor immediately said you need an mri ASAP and told her she would arrange it. Finally got an appointment for last Friday, 8 weeks after calling the GP. Mri done and received a letter today saying she needs to make a routine GP appointment. Rang the GP and told earliest 10 minutes telephone appointment is in 2 weeks! Really! How the hell can they be that busy, when many patients aren't even allowed in the surgery, that a 10 minute phone call isn't possible for 2 weeks. BTW, there's approx 6-8 doctors in our local surgery.
Crazy.

 

[LamieRobertson]

I am baffled by the measures still in place and the impact on all this when hospitalisations are so low. How long is life meant to go on hold? I think we need to start getting back to normal, with the older and vulnerable taking precautions but I can't see how the measures in place are appropriate for how serious this thing is at the moment.

I've already heard through work or friends of friends of quite a few people that have taken their own lives through this - and is it really worth it?

I was struck by this tweet today

https://twitter.com/dr_ellie/status/1296091664210169856?s=21



Average daily death rate from #covid as below is 5.7. This is a tragedy.

Average daily death rate from lung cancer is 97. This is a tragedy.

If we are to respond to #COVID19 pragmatically and sensibly going forwards, comparing death rates may prove valuable.

 

[Saltydog]

Interesting to see countries in Europe are having large surges of positive cases reported being cited as a result of travellers returning from their holidays - maybe the rapid introduction of quarantine rules was not the over dramatic inconvenience that many travellers claim but a positive preventative action.

 

[Is it PotG?]

Oh Happy Days

 

[Rugrat]

Interesting to see countries in Europe are having large surges of positive cases reported being cited as a result of travellers returning from their holidays - maybe the rapid introduction of quarantine rules was not the over dramatic inconvenience that many travellers claim but a positive preventative action.

I would be surprised if any right minded person thought the quarantine rules were over dramatic (albeit very inconvenient).

The problem is how many will observe the rules? I fear we will be seeing our own 'spike' in the coming weeks

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Oh Happy Days

View attachment 127394

1700 cases in Germany.

It flagged that the average age of infection has been decreasing and that incidence in younger age groups has increased and is now "much higher" than in older age groups.



I see the left out the number/age which puts it in perspective

 

[Fungus]

I was struck by this tweet today

https://twitter.com/dr_ellie/status/1296091664210169856?s=21



Average daily death rate from #covid as below is 5.7. This is a tragedy.

Average daily death rate from lung cancer is 97. This is a tragedy.

If we are to respond to #COVID19 pragmatically and sensibly going forwards, comparing death rates may prove valuable.

It would give a much-needed perspective. I'm convinced some people think the virus is the only thing that might kill them.

Edit: I'm also convinced some people can't distinguish between "cases" and "deaths" .

 

[BLOCK F]

There has been many reports about people scared to go to the doctors or go for treatment etc. My wife has a large lump on her arm and rang the doctors 9 weeks ago. Doctor immediately said you need an mri ASAP and told her she would arrange it. Finally got an appointment for last Friday, 8 weeks after calling the GP. Mri done and received a letter today saying she needs to make a routine GP appointment. Rang the GP and told earliest 10 minutes telephone appointment is in 2 weeks! Really! How the hell can they be that busy, when many patients aren't even allowed in the surgery, that a 10 minute phone call isn't possible for 2 weeks. BTW, there's approx 6-8 doctors in our local surgery.
Crazy.

Absolutely dreadful.
I really do wonder what the GP's in some practices are doing at the moment.
My experience is that if you ring up the surgery they refer you to a paramedic, a nurse, the cleaner or the cleaner's dog rather than let you speak to a doctor. I exaggerate, but not much. I was misdiagnosed by a nurse that led to me being referred to a hospital specialist, (after I eventually spoke to GP) for a telephone consultation. Luckily my problem turned out to be not a serious one, but it might have been. Because of the misdiagnosis, I had to put up with weeks of quite nasty discomfort. I don't blame the nurse, but they aren't doctors. During the course of my conversation with the specialist whilst he was checking my symptoms, he asked what the G.P. had said and I laughed and said, it is difficult to speak to one'! He said, hmm,they seem to have disappeared; I hear this quite a lot from my patients.
Anyway, I'm sorry to hear of your wife's problems and I do hope you get success.......eventually!

 

[Albion Dan]

I see the left out the number/age which puts it in perspective

And daily number of deaths!