Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Bozza]

Going back to the "it's weakening and dying out" v "infections, hospitalisations and deaths are only low because of the stuff we are (not) doing" discussion from yesterday, the signs aren't great from the US where relaxation of restrictions continues apace in many states...

"I think right now, most Americans are not ready to lock back down, and I completely understand that. Here's the bottom line, though, which is that -- I understand people are willing to live alongside this virus," Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute told CNN's Kate Bolduan on Wednesday.

"It means that between 800 and 1,000 Americans are going to die every single day. We're going to get another 100,000 deaths by September. So, that's a catastrophic cost," Jha said​

Since Memorial Day, the traditional start of summer, more than a dozen states, including Alaska, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Kentucky, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas and Utah have recorded spikes in hospitalizations, according to data from CNN aggregated from the Covid Tracking Project. Infections are rising in 18 states, according to CNN data. The virus is steady in nine states and down in 21. Two states, Michigan and Massachusetts, are not included in the count for temporary technical reasons to do with how they are processing data.

Aggressive openers Texas and Florida have both seen recent increases in infections. Arizona just told its hospitals to activate emergency plans amid an increase of cases.]​

Full article here (you can whizz by the Trump stuff if it doesn't interest you) >>> https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/11/...rus-economy-politics-election-2020/index.html

 

[WATFORD zero]

Worthless model maker better?

You seem to struggle to understand the role of experts in this pandemic, so from 0.43, there is a very good explanation of how a Government should use experts.

The whole interview, from 12th March (11 days before lockdown), is quite interesting. Just a shame that he was yet another who refused to serve under Johnson.

[Tweet]1238085538957139968[/Tweet]

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Your problem is that you really don't know what you're talking about but, for some strange reason, think that you do.
What qualifications do you have? Are you a scientist? Even more apt, an epidemiologist? Or how about statistics?
If the answer is no to all these questions, which I suspect it is, might it not be an idea if you reined back a bit?

Not as many qualifications as the other people who call it’s a mess of a modelling that’s for sure.

He was completely wrong in his predictions again

Just like he was with Bird Flu (200 million) foot and mouth disease and CJD

 

[Wardy's twin]

I was ill with "flu" 3 times from December to January. I usually get something in the winter, but not three times. This had me off work three times. To be clear I'm 100% now.

Before the virus struck I went to the Doctors who told me there was something up with my immune system.. Then (after I was a bit lazy going back) it struck. Never went back, round here was one of the early hot spots and the GPs were inundated.

I've never even thought I *may* have had it, just that I was potentially more likely to suffer badly on what the Doctors told me, so I've been the model "lock downer".

I've subsequently taken one of the anti-body tests and it came back negative, although those early ones are inaccurate is has to be said on negative results.

So I read with interest that they now are pretty certain the majority of cases entered this country via Spain from 28 Feb and 29 March

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52993734.

I don't think I had it, although three neighbours did. I'm just glad I shut myself down.

Sensible approach to what is a very difficult subject.

My wife is in the very high risk category and potentially so am i, so we self isolated. As part of her post lymphoma treatment she had a petscan that indicated an issue on her lungs. She then developed temperatures a month later. She had 4 COVID tests and only the last one was positive and she was in ICU by that point. Note the doctors suspected COVID at very beginning but tests were negative and symptoms did not come out.

We don't know where she got it, though i think it was probably from a hospital visit. The fact that it took at least a month to come out is worrying.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

You seem to struggle to understand the role of experts in this pandemic, so from 0.43, there is a very good explanation of how a Government should use experts.

The whole interview, from 12th March (11 days before lockdown), is quite interesting. Just a shame that he was yet another who refused to serve under Johnson.

[Tweet]1238085538957139968[/Tweet]

I agree on RS - but I don’t blame him.

Sage recommend against the lockdown a week earlier, so being told now thousands of lives would be have been saved if they locked down a week earlier by someone on sage is buck passing.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

I agree on RS - but I don’t blame him.

Sage recommend against the lockdown a week earlier, so being told now thousands of lives would be have been saved if they locked down a week earlier by someone on sage is buck passing.

Not really buck passing as Sage has 50 experts. Not all will agree.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Not really buck passing as Sage has 50 experts. Not all will agree.

You can add various sub groups to that list who’ll have a say

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...f-participants-of-sage-and-related-sub-groups

 

[keaton]

Not as many qualifications as the other people who call it’s a mess of a modelling that’s for sure.

He was completely wrong in his predictions again

Just like he was with Bird Flu (200 million) foot and mouth disease and CJD

How do you know his predictions were wrong?

 

[beorhthelm]

Not really buck passing as Sage has 50 experts. Not all will agree.

right. and the point missed is that the consensus of that group advised one policy, then a week later advised another. the government followed. what some seem to be suggesting is the government should have ignored the experts at one point, then change and follow them at another, because thats their personal non-expert view of what should have been done. yes the government are using following advice as cover, and so are the critics. there were (are) many different expert opinions on strategy and policy, with hindsigh people are picking favorites. example, lockdown a week earlier may not have had meaningful change as other policies continued.

 

[pb21]

Just shy of 200,000 tests in a day.
Great achievement.

It's meaningless without knowing how many people have actually been tested. What would be more interesting is how many people have received a result.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

It's meaningless without knowing how many people have actually been tested. What would be more interesting is how many people have received a result.

Agreed, but there has been over 6 million gone out now, I am sure some will not bother to send them back as that is human nature.

But it's all good news, wouldn't you agree?

 

[pb21]

Agreed, but there has been over 6 million gone out now, I am sure some will not bother to send them back as that is human nature.

But it's all good news, wouldn't you agree?

More testing is obviously good news.

I'm not sure I would qualify the current state of the UK's testing regime as a 'great achievement' though unless I was being incredibly sarcastic!

 

[dazzer6666]

This really is interesting..............

'The results convincingly suggest that "infections were in decline before UK lockdown, and that infections in Sweden started to decline only a short time later." The paper is carefully worded and does not pursue an obvious political agenda'

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/...530178049?s=20

 

[Deleted member 2719]

More testing is obviously good news.

I'm not sure I would qualify the current state of the UK's testing regime as a 'great achievement' though unless I was being incredibly sarcastic!

Fair enough, this is a week out of date chart and we have done another million since.

I think most would say it's a great achievement.

All good news for this thread in my opinion.

 

[CheeseRolls]

This really is interesting..............

'The results convincingly suggest that "infections were in decline before UK lockdown, and that infections in Sweden started to decline only a short time later." The paper is carefully worded and does not pursue an obvious political agenda'

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/...530178049?s=20

Balloux helpfully adds, "transmission declining before lockdown does not imply an earlier UK lockdown may not have saved lives. It also does not shed light over whether the decline was driven solely by voluntary, spontaneous 'social distancing' or if there were other factors at play."

What he omits to factor in is a higher awareness of the benefits of regular hand washing and hygiene in general. Anyone for a game of beer pong?

 

[Jim in the West]

It's meaningless without knowing how many people have actually been tested. What would be more interesting is how many people have received a result.

Most of the trends are pretty positive - but it is somewhat bizarre that the government won't tell us how many people are actually being tested. And they haven't published that figure for over two weeks now. Back in the days when they were reporting around 100k tests/day, the numbers of people being tested was around 60k. Assuming the same ratio still applies, logically around 120k people are now being tested every day. The further caveat is that (from what I understand) up to about 20% of these tests are antibody tests (ie, they're not useful in telling whether someone is actually infectious NOW), and another big chunk are hospital and care home staff who are being routinely tested very regularly. So, the numbers of people "in the community" who are having antigen tests is almost certainly well below 100k. I'm not seeking to detract from what is obviously very good news regarding the number of cases - but the government needs to come clean with us about the real test data.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Interesting points Jim...maybe one to debate to a greater depth on the main Covid thread

 

[wehatepalace]

Most of the trends are pretty positive - but it is somewhat bizarre that the government won't tell us how many people are actually being tested. And they haven't published that figure for over two weeks now. Back in the days when they were reporting around 100k tests/day, the numbers of people being tested was around 60k. Assuming the same ratio still applies, logically around 120k people are now being tested every day. The further caveat is that (from what I understand) up to about 20% of these tests are antibody tests (ie, they're not useful in telling whether someone is actually infectious NOW), and another big chunk are hospital and care home staff who are being routinely tested very regularly. So, the numbers of people "in the community" who are having antigen tests is almost certainly well below 100k. I'm not seeking to detract from what is obviously very good news regarding the number of cases - but the government needs to come clean with us about the real test data.

But surely ........if the level of infection is dropping, then there will be far less people with symptoms and thus less people requiring testing.

 

[The Wizard]

Breakdown of testing by testing strategy ‘pillars’
Pillar 1: swab testing in Public Health England (PHE) labs and NHS hospitals for those with a clinical need, and health and care workers
Pillar 2: swab testing for the wider population, as set out in government guidance
Pillar 3: serology testing to show if people have antibodies from having had COVID-19
Pillar 4: serology and swab testing for national surveillance supported by PHE, ONS, Biobank, universities and other partners to learn more about the prevalence and spread of the virus and for other testing research purposes, for example on the accuracy and ease of use of home testing




Hope that helps, any other information you might need is on here. As said above, probably not the best discussion for this thread though.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

 

[Jim in the West]

Interesting points Jim...maybe one to debate to a greater depth on the main Covid thread

Yes - apologies again!!