Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Green Cross Code Man]

In many hot countries people spend far more time indoors, air conditioned, where viruses thrive. You can’t really conclude that because a country has a high infection rate and it’s hot and sunny, that it spreads out in the open in the sunshine.

It seems the science is this thing, like other viruses doesn’t survive long outside in sunshine (uv), and the spread outside is much less than inside. I’d be far more worried about car showrooms, work places, schools etc. than I would seeing pictures of a busy beach.

Hmm. At no point did I ever say that it is because it is hot and sunny that the virus spreads. I am saying that in isolation, the statement that I keep reading, is wrong. I.e. that the virus doesn't spread in hot and sunny climates.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Hmm. At no point did I ever say that it is because it is hot and sunny that the virus spreads. I am saying that in isolation, the statement that I keep reading, is wrong. I.e. that the virus doesn't spread in hot and sunny climates.

That isn’t really the statement or the science. The virus doesn’t survive long in sunlight and doesn’t spread easily outside. Doesn’t mean it doesn’t spread by other means in countries with warm climates.

 

[oldboyroy]

In many hot countries people spend far more time indoors, air conditioned, where viruses thrive. You can’t really conclude that because a country has a high infection rate and it’s hot and sunny, that it spreads out in the open in the sunshine.

It seems the science is this thing, like other viruses doesn’t survive long outside in sunshine (uv), and the spread outside is much less than inside. I’d be far more worried about car showrooms, work places, schools etc. than I would seeing pictures of a busy beach.

Exactly. My point was as said the virus doesn't live long in sunlight if I remember correctly it takes about 10 mins in direct sunlight for the virus to die could of been less than that. Whether it thrives in say humid cloudy hot conditions is probably a different matter. My point above was its safer outside in the sun than being cooped up indoors and come autumn/winter in this country it's possible to spike up again and we could be back to square one(lockdown) unless of course a vaccine works.

 

[The Wizard]

I find this chart very telling, virus weakening?

 

[blue-shifted]

Re the heat, sunlight. It will be interesting / scary to see what happens when we get into Autumn and winter if we haven't got properly on top of this.

I think it is very likely that this is seasonal. We want it gone or very nearly gone by September. If not then a winter lockdown is going to be properly miserable.

 

[blue-shifted]

I find this chart very telling, virus weakening?

View attachment 124398

Is that worldwide?

 

[The Wizard]

Is that worldwide?

Yeah this is worldwide, available here.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

[Napper]

Estimated 8000 new cases a day, track and trace system still in early stages of implementation (should be been done 2 months ago) and still no APP, R rate steady but not really falling, falling trust in the government, government now listening to science not following it

And we're easing the lock down too early, just like we locked down too late. I hope I'm wrong but 2nd spike seems inevitable...

all figures heading the right way.

No spike from the VE day parties which everyone was going mad about.

Evidence is pointing towards the fact that there wont be one.

The media sensationalism isnt good for people

 

[dazzer6666]

I find that hard to believe given that Brazil is pretty warm and they are roaring up the wrong kind of league table. There may be a combination of it disliking various weather combinations but the sun on its own cannot hold true.

You can't consider single factors though in isolation - much of Brazil has enormous population density (Sao Paulo over 7,000 people per square km compared with London at more like 1,500 for example), poor sanitation etc which would potentially negate the effect of the virus having a limited lifespan in direct sunlight

 

[Billy the Fish]

I find this chart very telling, virus weakening?

View attachment 124398

Very interesting. There's lots of anecdotal evidence coming out that this is happening for some reason.

I know the WHO woman said there's no proof but their burden of proof needs to be much higher before they can make a statement - it probably needs a study, another study, peer review etc.

Looking at the trends and listening to what people on the ground are seeing you don't need to be a doctor or statistician to see that some factor is cause it to be less severe to more people than before.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Very interesting. There's lots of anecdotal evidence coming out that this is happening for some reason.

I know the WHO woman said there's no proof but their burden of proof needs to be much higher before they can make a statement - it probably needs a study, another study, peer review etc.

Looking at the trends and listening to what people on the ground are seeing you don't need to be a doctor or statistician to see that some factor is cause it to be less severe to more people than before.

It could be mutating to a weaker form. However we have been told that we are now doing more testing. So the number of new cases may also be falling, disguised by an increase in testing. That said I think the government has lied about testing (it has been and remains shit, as explained on the Johns Hopkins page).

So I think that all that figure shows that the numbers of deaths is falling. I still haven't given up hoping this is a seasonal virus.....

 

[nicko31]

You sound like the hysteric women that post on the pictures of Brighton Beach that The Argus keep posting, is your name Karen By any chance, she posts saying there will definitely be a second spike, even though there’s no evidence anywhere in the world of one !

Who knows if there will be a second spike. The here and now in England has the highest mortality rate in the world

https://mobile.twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1266332047448117251

And there is still no clear strategy from government, paying the pricing for populist leader surrounded by a pack of inexperienced sycophants

They've got 4 years and large majority, if we lose 100,000 TBH I don't think they care, hopefully it will all be forgotten. If all fails blame the public for not using their common sense

 

[The Wizard]

How can you claim anywhere has the worst fatality rate in the world when nobody knows just how many cases each country has? It’s amazing what people post and believe just to suit an agenda they might have.

 

[wehatepalace]

Who knows if there will be a second spike. The here and now in England has the highest mortality rate in the world

https://mobile.twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1266332047448117251

And there is still no clear strategy from government, paying the pricing for populist leader surrounded by a pack of inexperienced sycophants

They've got 4 years and large majority, if we lose 100,000 TBH I don't think they care, hopefully it will all be forgotten. If all fails blame the public for not using their common sense

I don’t think anyone is questioning the mortality rate, or questioning the governments way of handling it, although I’m not convinced a labour government would have done things much differently.

What I do have issue with is the sensationalist claims of a 2nd wave, there is zero evidence of such and at the moment the way figures are declining it looks highly unlikely.

Yes there must be an element of caution as no one knows what will happen, but the constant claims of another wave and the hysteria it causes is far more damaging to the nation than the actual virus, both mentally and economically.

 

[oldboyroy]

all figures heading the right way.

No spike from the VE day parties which everyone was going mad about.

Evidence is pointing towards the fact that there wont be one.

The media sensationalism isnt good for people

Agree most ve day parties were outdoors in the sun and most kept distance. I myself don't think we'll have a 2nd wave deadlier than the 1st as many seem to think. Come winter time there will be localised spikes if the virus is still around, again, no one really knows whether it will be or won't be. I could be totally wrong(hope not) and it does return with a vengeance, only way out eventually is with a proven vaccine.

 

[nicko31]

How can you claim anywhere has the worst fatality rate in the world when nobody knows just how many cases each country has? It’s amazing what people post and believe just to suit an agenda they might have.

UK 2nd highest amongst countries using comparable data, if you take just England we're the highest

https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4-9a82-648ffde71bf0

Think the UK will overtake Spain in the next week or so. Its a good job we're an island outside the European common travel area isn't it?

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

3 weeks gov reviews moved to 4 weeks

That’s not good news for pubs etc

 

[wehatepalace]

3 weeks gov reviews moved to 4 weeks

That’s not good news for pubs etc

I kind of expected that to be honest, seeing that they said at the last review the next landmark date would be 4th July which was well over a month away, I’m not sure they would have changed anything until then anyway.
It will still give hospitality plenty of notice as to when they can reopen a month on from the last review date.

 

[Worried Man Blues]

Is there a way of knowing where the latest infections are happening in the uk?

 

[Yoda]

Is there a way of knowing where the latest infections are happening in the uk?

Yes: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#category=ltlas&map=rate&area=e07000065

Underneath the map, Download the latest cases data as CSV

Will give a list based on date the sample was taken for testing.

I'm using the data to make my own charts for each Region, Upper & Lower tier Local Authorities. Taking a bit of time though as I only started yesterday.