Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[RossyG]

[tweet]1267798340458160128[/tweet]

 

[AZ Gull]

It could be mutating to a weaker form. However we have been told that we are now doing more testing. So the number of new cases may also be falling, disguised by an increase in testing. That said I think the government has lied about testing (it has been and remains shit, as explained on the Johns Hopkins page).

So I think that all that figure shows that the numbers of deaths is falling. I still haven't given up hoping this is a seasonal virus.....

I'm not a scientist so perhaps you can shed some light - when we talk about a virus mutating, I presume that is essentially a random process? So, if you started off with exactly the same virus in two different (and completely separated) populations, the likelihood of them mutating in the same way would be extremely small? Or is there something in a virus that causes it to mutate in certain pre-defined ways?

With many nations having travel restrictions (and with travel between nations at a minimal level), would we have any reason to expect that "the virus" would actually mutate in the same manner across many different populations?

 

[Poojah]

I'm not a scientist so perhaps you can shed some light - when we talk about a virus mutating, I presume that is essentially a random process? So, if you started off with exactly the same virus in two different (and completely separated) populations, the likelihood of them mutating in the same way would be extremely small? Or is there something in a virus that causes it to mutate in certain pre-defined ways?

With many nations having travel restrictions (and with travel between nations at a minimal level), would we have any reason to expect that "the virus" would actually mutate in the same manner across many different populations?

I'm not a scientist either (never even liked the subject in school), but having at least done a bit of reading on the matter I think it's largely aligned to the basic theory of evolution. Random mutations happen in all biological entities over time, some of those mutations are beneficial and become more prevalent whilst others are unhelpful and result in such genetic sequences dying out.

Viruses, for whatever reason, appear to mutate quickly - quite simply errors are made when it attempts to replicate its own genetic code. A mutation into something relatively harmless or asymptomatic will have a better chance, under social distancing measures, of spreading around than something which causes severe symptoms and incapacitates people.

I think, in that sense, whilst you might find differences into the precise genetic makeup of the virus in different parts of the world, it may make sense as to why it is more likely to change into something less harmful than more so.

Anecdotally, I find it interesting that in all of the recent Premier League and EFL positive tests of late, players have reported themselves as being surprised and completely asymptomatic. Of course, fit, elite athletes in their twenties are likely to be the most impervious to Covid-19, however earlier on in the pandemic the very same demographic were reporting pretty aggressive symptoms, e.g.:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51961429

As I say, very anecdotal indeed however there does seem to be increasing signs that the virus is either disappearing or at least becoming 'invisible' due to an ever-increasing docility.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I'm not a scientist so perhaps you can shed some light - when we talk about a virus mutating, I presume that is essentially a random process? So, if you started off with exactly the same virus in two different (and completely separated) populations, the likelihood of them mutating in the same way would be extremely small? Or is there something in a virus that causes it to mutate in certain pre-defined ways?

With many nations having travel restrictions (and with travel between nations at a minimal level), would we have any reason to expect that "the virus" would actually mutate in the same manner across many different populations?

I agree with [MENTION=17745]Poojah[/MENTION]. Yes, mutation is entirely random, as it i in all species. If the mutation provides a survival advantage and a greater chance of reproduction then the mutation is preserved in the offspring (with a 50% chance of preservation if reproduction is sexual).

By the same token viruses and bacteria that mutate quickly can have a survival advantage in that the immune systems of the hosts will be caught out. This is why we need a new flu vaccine each year.

The common cold has multiple strains on the go at any one time, mutates extremely fast and is almost never lethal, making it an extremely successful beast.

 

[AZ Gull]

I agree with [MENTION=17745]Poojah[/MENTION]. Yes, mutation is entirely random, as it i in all species. If the mutation provides a survival advantage and a greater chance of reproduction then the mutation is preserved in the offspring (with a 50% chance of preservation if reproduction is sexual).

By the same token viruses and bacteria that mutate quickly can have a survival advantage in that the immune systems of the hosts will be caught out. This is why we need a new flu vaccine each year.

The common cold has multiple strains on the go at any one time, mutates extremely fast and is almost never lethal, making it an extremely successful beast.

Another question - with common colds (and flu), I assume these viruses simply live on almost ad infinitum, being transmitted successfully because under normal circumstances we don't have lockdowns/social distancing, and generally "migrating" on a seasonal basis?

So a cold (or flu) I might catch next winter will be a direct descendant of a virus that was infecting my great-great-grandfather 100 years ago?

Can common cold and flu viruses jump species, or have we been living with the same (multitude) of viruses for thousands of years?

 

[LamieRobertson]

Some were hoping for a new ‘greener’ Britain post Covid19....fair bit of work to do

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-52890608

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Another question - with common colds (and flu), I assume these viruses simply live on almost ad infinitum, being transmitted successfully because under normal circumstances we don't have lockdowns/social distancing, and generally "migrating" on a seasonal basis?

So a cold (or flu) I might catch next winter will be a direct descendant of a virus that was infecting my great-great-grandfather 100 years ago?

Can common cold and flu viruses jump species, or have we been living with the same (multitude) of viruses for thousands of years?

1. Yes

2. Yes.

3. Yes, but usually only reluctantly. Covid-19 allegedly originated in a bat.

Something else: genetic diversity offers scope for species survival since in a catastrophe some members of the population may be resistant. In parts of Africa a proportion of the population have sickle cell anaemia. This is itself moderately harmful, but it makes the person resistant to malaria. Swings and roundabouts.....Meanwhile genetic nondiversity is useful if the phenotype (profile of characteristics) is robust, but a catastrophe (a new infection) could wipe out the whole population, so there is risk.

In humans, which thrive by nurturing, looking after our kids and mates, a survival mechanism of high frequency mutation would lead to great sadness because most mutations are not beneficial (and some will be lethal). If we mutated readily then the individuals whose disposition would be most favoured are those who are not bovvered by child mortality but drawn to multiple partners dropping kids all over the shop. This is in fact a strategy favoured in poorer parts of the world. And by Boris.

Whether a species is a rapid turnover rapid mutation type, or slow, longer lived and nurturing, is a matter of chance; if it works the species survives and if it doesn't it dies out.

 

[herecomesaregular]

Some were hoping for a new ‘greener’ Britain post Covid19....fair bit of work to do

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-52890608

****s before lockdown return to be ****s after lockdown?

I remember the headlines after 9/11 "the world won't ever be the same again!" yes it was. After the financial crisis, yes it returned to how it was. Humans still keep starting and continuing wars, even after the Great Wars.

Basically, humans are selfish and stupid and never learn - seems to be evident from history?

 

[beorhthelm]

Can common cold and flu viruses jump species, or have we been living with the same (multitude) of viruses for thousands of years?

they all come from animals orginally, and genetics suggest far more recently than that.

 

[Machiavelli]

I find that hard to believe given that Brazil is pretty warm and they are roaring up the wrong kind of league table. There may be a combination of it disliking various weather combinations but the sun on its own cannot hold true.

I believe there is clear evidence that it doesn't spread as well outside, but I'm not going to search for that evidence.

 

[Machiavelli]

How can you claim anywhere has the worst fatality rate in the world when nobody knows just how many cases each country has? It’s amazing what people post and believe just to suit an agenda they might have.

Well, things are dreadful here, wouldn't you agree?
We've currently got the second highest total of deaths, according to Johns Hopkins.
The same source also puts us second highest in the case-fatality rankings:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

I am aware that none of this makes the UK to have the worst fatality rate in the world. I'm also aware that Brazil is looking dreadful, and they're at an earlier stage than we are, with inferior conditions that will encourage the spread, and that their right-wing populist leader is even more dreadful than ours. I'm also aware that, ultimately, the excess death rate will be the measure to compare national death counts. I'm also aware that second spikes might occur which disrupt the current figures. I'm not sure if I can think of anything else on this, but there's little other way of putting it: things really are dreadful here, and all this despite the heroic effort and sacrifice of too many frontline workers, and the broader public for how they've adapted.

 

[Machiavelli]

I'm not a scientist either (never even liked the subject in school), but having at least done a bit of reading on the matter I think it's largely aligned to the basic theory of evolution. Random mutations happen in all biological entities over time, some of those mutations are beneficial and become more prevalent whilst others are unhelpful and result in such genetic sequences dying out.

Viruses, for whatever reason, appear to mutate quickly - quite simply errors are made when it attempts to replicate its own genetic code. A mutation into something relatively harmless or asymptomatic will have a better chance, under social distancing measures, of spreading around than something which causes severe symptoms and incapacitates people.

I think, in that sense, whilst you might find differences into the precise genetic makeup of the virus in different parts of the world, it may make sense as to why it is more likely to change into something less harmful than more so.

Anecdotally, I find it interesting that in all of the recent Premier League and EFL positive tests of late, players have reported themselves as being surprised and completely asymptomatic. Of course, fit, elite athletes in their twenties are likely to be the most impervious to Covid-19, however earlier on in the pandemic the very same demographic were reporting pretty aggressive symptoms, e.g.:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51961429

As I say, very anecdotal indeed however there does seem to be increasing signs that the virus is either disappearing or at least becoming 'invisible' due to an ever-increasing docility.

Great response, thank you, very clear and -- according to my more limited understanding than yours -- an accurate, succinct summary

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

****s before lockdown return to be ****s after lockdown?

I remember the headlines after 9/11 "the world won't ever be the same again!" yes it was. After the financial crisis, yes it returned to how it was. Humans still keep starting and continuing wars, even after the Great Wars.

Basically, humans are selfish and stupid and never learn - seems to be evident from history?

Alternatively, adaptable, resilient, conservative

 

[clapham_gull]

Something new came of the Neil Ferguson appearance at the select committee. They think now that the virus mostly entered the UK via Spain.

“One thing the genetic data is showing us now is most chains of transmission still existing in the UK originated from Spain, to some extent Italy,” Ferguson said. “It is clear that before we were even in a position to measure it, before surveillance systems were even set up, there were many hundreds, if not thousands, of individuals coming into the country in late February and early March from that area. And that meant that the epidemic was further ahead than we had anticipated.”

 

[BN41Albion]

Some were hoping for a new ‘greener’ Britain post Covid19....fair bit of work to do

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-52890608

Its such a shame, but inevitable. We're selfish, greedy ******** on the whole, us humans. In the rush to get back to 'normal', few give a shit about the environment again. We've just had the biggest opportunity we'll ever had to truly stop and take stock of how we can really change our ways, and it seems we've missed it. Doesn't bode well for the future, does it.

 

[A1X]

Governments and WHO changed Covid-19 policy based on suspect data from tiny US company

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-world-health-organization-hydroxychloroquine

Quite an extraordinary tale

 

[The Wizard]

Vallance clearly has beef with Boris, no ‘thank you prime minister’ and a very blunt and negative showing of the slides.

 

[Is it PotG?]

Valance not afraid to skirt around the edges.

 

[Napper]

numbers still falling good good

Get those pubs open !!

 

[A1X]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...y-alok-sharma-coronavirus-test-speech-commons

I'm sure bringing all those MPs back to Westminster is going to work out fine...