Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Again I put your side of the argument down to an inability to see the much more disastrous impact of all aspects of health and destroyed standards of living from the recession that's coming and will get worse the longer lockdown prevails. What do you actually suggest if we still dont have a vaccine in a years time btw?

I don't think we can stay locked down forever. Of course not. But I think people are jumping the gun. We ought to follow the Germans, albeit I doubt that the English have the discipline. The Kiwis have almost eradicated Covid. We haven't. Weakening restrictions now could easily reverse the gains we have made.

Of course the restriction will be removed, and like everyone I hope this will be soon. When new case numbers fall sufficiently. But I deplore the way some are apparently gagging at the bit. Someone posted the trash press headlines just before the last long weekend, and they were all appalling. We have a government with one eye on its own fortune and the other on the media, signaling change before it happens, and behaving irresponsibly, in my view.

It has been bad enough down my way with entitled pricks ignoring social distancing in shops. A little bit of restraint for a bit longer won't kill them, but, no.

So it doesn't help when people can wave the likes of Sumption about as justification for their position.

Anyway, enough already. I can understand your frustration. I hope you can understand my horror of getting ill.

 

[Mellotron]

The Kiwis have almost eradicated Covid. We haven't.

Their good early moves may backfire though - they are left with a hugely susceptible population that may not be willing to take tourism from a lot of countries for a long time - and New Zealand is a country that relies on tourism.

If no vaccine arrives, New Zealand is potentially completely ****ed economically.

 

[Albion Dan]

I don't think we can stay locked down forever. Of course not. But I think people are jumping the gun. We ought to follow the Germans, albeit I doubt that the English have the discipline. The Kiwis have almost eradicated Covid. We haven't. Weakening restrictions now could easily reverse the gains we have made.

Of course the restriction will be removed, and like everyone I hope this will be soon. When new case numbers fall sufficiently. But I deplore the way some are apparently gagging at the bit. Someone posted the trash press headlines just before the last long weekend, and they were all appalling. We have a government with one eye on its own fortune and the other on the media, signaling change before it happens, and behaving irresponsibly, in my view.

It has been bad enough down my way with entitled pricks ignoring social distancing in shops. A little bit of restraint for a bit longer won't kill them, but, no.

So it doesn't help when people can wave the likes of Sumption about as justification for their position.

Anyway, enough already. I can understand your frustration. I hope you can understand my horror of getting ill.

Fair enough, and I'm not advocating complete return to normal straight away either, but the risk of catching the virus is now much reduced and the ability of the NHS to care for those that do is much stronger. It's time to move forward.

 

[Machiavelli]

The tricky (and important) thing is judging the point at which the lockdown causes more problems than it solves.

There will come a time when the effects of the lockdown - missed cancer referrals, poverty, suicides etc - claims more lives than a continued lockdown saves. The question is when that moment is, and acting appropriately - it's not the economy vs lives, its lives vs lives.

Evidently we are all at differing points on the scale - the two extremes being A> End the lockdown now/shouldn't have been a lockdown, to B> No end to lockdown until we have a vaccine (if we get one).

I don't know where I am, myself. Probably somewhere in the middle.

It is tricky, but my view is ending the lockdown is unlikely to go well without a test, track, trace, isolate policy (and capacity) in place. Yet again, we're being failed on that one too.

 

[Notters]

Again I put your side of the argument down to an inability to see the much more disastrous impact of all aspects of health and destroyed standards of living from the recession that's coming and will get worse the longer lockdown prevails. What do you actually suggest if we still dont have a vaccine in a years time btw?

Another very good point. There are clear societal advantages to ending lockdown. Not to drink driving.

 

[Mellotron]

I don't think we can stay locked down forever. Of course not. But I think people are jumping the gun. We ought to follow the Germans, albeit I doubt that the English have the discipline. The Kiwis have almost eradicated Covid. We haven't. Weakening restrictions now could easily reverse the gains we have made.

Of course the restriction will be removed, and like everyone I hope this will be soon. When new case numbers fall sufficiently. But I deplore the way some are apparently gagging at the bit. Someone posted the trash press headlines just before the last long weekend, and they were all appalling. We have a government with one eye on its own fortune and the other on the media, signaling change before it happens, and behaving irresponsibly, in my view.

It has been bad enough down my way with entitled pricks ignoring social distancing in shops. A little bit of restraint for a bit longer won't kill them, but, no.

So it doesn't help when people can wave the likes of Sumption about as justification for their position.

Anyway, enough already. I can understand your frustration. I hope you can understand my horror of getting ill.

You're right, in that some are just selfish entitled pricks who are just bored. I have no sympathy with those.

However, you seem to be ignoring/slightly sidetracking the genuinely sensible and growing theory (from those who know what they are talking about - i.e. cancer specialists) that the shockingly low level of referrals in the last couple of months mean we may currently be laying the groundwork for a cancer epidemic that could see many thousands of excess deaths.

Ignore the entitled pricks, let's focus on the stats.

 

[Mellotron]

It is tricky, but my view is ending the lockdown is unlikely to go well without a test, track, trace, isolate policy (and capacity) in place. Yet again, we're being failed on that one too.

It is tricky, but if we dawdled for too long (I'm not saying we are, I really am not sure) we'd end up losing more lives than we save, even if the TTT policy isn't great - they have said one will be in place June 1st, how good it'll be? Well, jury's out.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

You're right, in that some are just selfish entitled pricks who are just bored. I have no sympathy with those.

However, you seem to be ignoring/slightly sidetracking the genuinely sensible and growing theory (from those who know what they are talking about - i.e. cancer specialists) that the shockingly low level of referrals in the last couple of months mean we may currently be laying the groundwork for a cancer epidemic that could see many thousands of excess deaths.

Ignore the entitled pricks, let's focus on the stats.

Fair point.

Coincidentally I was looking at UK excess deaths stats earlier today, and they have risen and fallen with a peak in mid April. Only a little more than half have been attributed to Covid. One expanation for that is the existence of an excess of cancer and other deaths. However the non Covid deaths have recently fallen week on week along with the Covid deaths, so my guess is they are all Covid deaths (I see no explanation for cancer lethality, for example, to rise and fall in parallel with Covid lethality). In other words for now at least the death spike looks like it is entirely due to Covid. That may change, of course, if this carries on and we don't get back to work, and an untreated cancer death spike may yet emerge even if we do get back to work soon.

 

[Notters]

Fair point.

Coincidentally I was looking at UK excess deaths stats earlier today, and they have risen and fallen with a peak in mid April. Only a little more than half have been attributed to Covid. One expanation for that is the existence of an excess of cancer and other deaths. However the non Covid deaths have recently fallen week on week along with the Covid deaths, so my guess is they are all Covid deaths (I see no explanation for cancer lethality, for example, to rise and fall in parallel with Covid lethality). In other words for now at least the death spike looks like it is entirely due to Covid. That may change, of course, if this carries on and we don't get back to work, and an untreated cancer death spike may yet emerge even if we do get back to work soon.

The cancer deaths won't (mostly occur now), but some time in the future. The explanation for other deaths rising and falling in parallel with Covid is surely from people with minor strokes / early signs of heart disease / traumas not seeking medical attention.

 

[Mellotron]

Fair point.

Coincidentally I was looking at UK excess deaths stats earlier today, and they have risen and fallen with a peak in mid April. Only a little more than half have been attributed to Covid. One expanation for that is the existence of an excess of cancer and other deaths. However the non Covid deaths have recently fallen week on week along with the Covid deaths, so my guess is they are all Covid deaths (I see no explanation for cancer lethality, for example, to rise and fall in parallel with Covid lethality). In other words for now at least the death spike looks like it is entirely due to Covid. That may change, of course, if this carries on and we don't get back to work, and an untreated cancer death spike may yet emerge even if we do get back to work soon.

Sorry, I think you've misunderstood me. The point is that the chances of surviving cancer are massively improved if symptoms are spotted as early as possible.

Referrals for potentially cancerous symptoms (i.e. people who don't know they even have cancer yet, but would normally get it checked out pre-pandemic) have been down to something like 20% of usual levels in the past couple of months - that's really quite scary. We are missing cancer diagnoses in what is likely to be tens of thousands of people - obviously these are pie-in-the-sky figures but some cancer specialists are suggesting the lack of referrals could cause 40-60,000 excess cancer deaths in coming years.

Any cancer epidemic due to missed referrals would be in the coming number of years, not across March-April-May of this year.

Hence why it is vital that the NHS is able to resume "normal" service asap, and that people feel safe enough to come forward if they have symptoms.

This is why I'm saying it's lives vs. lives. At some point deaths due to missed cancer referrals will outnumber new COVID-19 deaths (ie COVID deaths from now on, not from the start) - therefore a certain level of lockdown becomes counter productive, if the most important reason for the lockdown is to save lives. We may even be past that point now - it is so hard to judge.

 

[CheeseRolls]

The cancer deaths won't (mostly occur now), but some time in the future. The explanation for other deaths rising and falling in parallel with Covid is surely from people with minor strokes / early signs of heart disease / traumas not seeking medical attention.

We will never get to a satisfactory answer. Many Covid patients are developing blood clot related conditions causing strokes, heart problems and impacting other organs. There is also 30-60k people dying every year from respiratory diseases related to pollution, which has been significantly lower due to the lock down.

 

[loz]

We will never get to a satisfactory answer. Many Covid patients are developing blood clot related conditions causing strokes, heart problems and impacting other organs. There is also 30-60k people dying every year from respiratory diseases related to pollution, which has been significantly lower due to the lock down.

Blood clots or DVTs can be caused by long periods of being inactive, Many many care homes have kept the old locked up in bedrooms without doing the exercises that they would usually do everyday. That may or may not be part of it ?

 

[Rugrat]

Their good early moves may backfire though - they are left with a hugely susceptible population that may not be willing to take tourism from a lot of countries for a long time - and New Zealand is a country that relies on tourism.

If no vaccine arrives, New Zealand is potentially completely ****ed economically.

You said it before and I corrected you. NZ does not rely on tourism .. indeed a lower proportion of it's GDP comes from tourism than ours so they will not be 'completely ******* economically'

Nor do I buy into the fact that they are any more susceptible than us ...and obviously their leadership think the same thing

 

[Mellotron]

You said it before and I corrected you. NZ does not rely on tourism .. indeed a lower proportion of it's GDP comes from tourism than ours so they will not be 'completely ******* economically'

Nor do I buy into the fact that they are any more susceptible than us ...and obviously their leadership think the same thing

You don't believe any form of immunity from COVID-19 exists? A country with barely any deaths from COVID-19 is going to struggle much more to open up without upsetting the R value than a country which has had many deaths. i.e. we can likely open up for widespread tourism much sooner than they can.

Re: Tourism-

Tourism comprises an important sector of the New Zealand economy, directly contributing NZ$12.9 billion (or 5.6%) of the country's GDP in 2016, as well as supporting 188,000 full-time-equivalent jobs (nearly 7.5% of New Zealand's workforce).

Slightly less than ours, but still pretty important, it's fair to say.

 

[Rugrat]

You don't believe any form of immunity from COVID-19 exists?

Re: Tourism-

Tourism comprises an important sector of the New Zealand economy, directly contributing NZ$12.9 billion (or 5.6%) of the country's GDP in 2016, as well as supporting 188,000 full-time-equivalent jobs (nearly 7.5% of New Zealand's workforce).

Slightly less than ours, but still pretty important, it's fair to say.

Yes of course I do but I don't know that that they need to close their doors to tourism, just be 'selective' and employ (as best they can) the proper checks. I would hope that we do the same ... regardless of some of the assumptions thrown around I haven't seen any where suggesting that we have (or will have) wholesale immunity.

As far as their tourism is concerned I'd suggest that they would be better off economically putting a lid on it than suffering the economic impact of extended and multiple lock downs as some will most certainly experience

 

[Mellotron]

Yes of course I do but I don't know that that they need to close their doors to tourism, just be 'selective' and employ (as best they can) the proper checks. I would hope that we do the same ... regardless of some of the assumptions thrown around I haven't seen any where suggesting that we have (or will have) wholesale immunity.

As far as their tourism is concerned I'd suggest that they would be better off economically putting a lid on it than suffering the economic impact of extended and multiple lock downs as some will most certainly experience

I'm not suggesting we have "wholesale" immunity yet, although the case drop in London is startling and certainly lends itself towards there being a pretty high level of immunity there.

Even if NZ employ the proper checks, we know this thing is properly contagious so they will struggle to open up for some time without dealing with numerous clusters at the very least, you'd think?

To confirm, I am not advocating the herd immunity strategy. Merely that it seems logical to me that countries who have had it worse will have a higher level of immunity and therefore find it easier in future to open up more fully without upsetting the R value as much, is all.

 

[darkwolf666]

So you are proposing everyone hides for a year or maybe forever if no vaccine is found whilst the society we know burns in flames pushing us all into never ending poverty because a very very small amount of the population might die of a virus? Absurd. Again like Sumption said leaders need to make decisions of Statesmen and not bow to public opinion which has been fueled by media fear porn.

2.5 million currently shielding, all at HIGH risk of death from Covid 19, yep a small number ..

 

[CheeseRolls]

Blood clots or DVTs can be caused by long periods of being inactive, Many many care homes have kept the old locked up in bedrooms without doing the exercises that they would usually do everyday. That may or may not be part of it ?

Doctors have been reporting 30% of Covid patients with blood clots, strokes in patients in their 30's and heart related issues.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The drug itself is relatively harmless. My wife takes it already for Arthritis as do millions of others. Could even explain why she had zero symptoms when I had a serious case of Covid.

Interesting. Would you mind telling me what daily dose? I have seen 200 and 400 mg tried for Covid.

Thanks.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Sorry, I think you've misunderstood me. The point is that the chances of surviving cancer are massively improved if symptoms are spotted as early as possible.

Referrals for potentially cancerous symptoms (i.e. people who don't know they even have cancer yet, but would normally get it checked out pre-pandemic) have been down to something like 20% of usual levels in the past couple of months - that's really quite scary. We are missing cancer diagnoses in what is likely to be tens of thousands of people - obviously these are pie-in-the-sky figures but some cancer specialists are suggesting the lack of referrals could cause 40-60,000 excess cancer deaths in coming years.

Any cancer epidemic due to missed referrals would be in the coming number of years, not across March-April-May of this year.

Hence why it is vital that the NHS is able to resume "normal" service asap, and that people feel safe enough to come forward if they have symptoms.

This is why I'm saying it's lives vs. lives. At some point deaths due to missed cancer referrals will outnumber new COVID-19 deaths (ie COVID deaths from now on, not from the start) - therefore a certain level of lockdown becomes counter productive, if the most important reason for the lockdown is to save lives. We may even be past that point now - it is so hard to judge.

Sorry, yes, that makes sense.