Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Swansman]

Has Sweden got it right do you think? My step son lives in Stockholm and definitely has a far more relaxed attitude ... but the numbers don't appear to suggest that what's going on there is any more effective than here. Indeed, as mentioned elsewhere there's an argument to say it's worse (but I won't get involved in that)

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Yes. As you can see on the chart you posted we have the rougly the same number of new cases / new intensive care cases / new deaths now as three weels ago despite no lockdown which means our curve is more or less fla. Since our approach is not to reach zero cases, but a steady curve until immunity/seasonal aspects start doing the job "naturally", it seems to be working.

I dont get how it is worse when deaths per capita are lower (despitecounting care home deaths every day) while also keeping society almost entirely open.

You were very critical of Sweden's approach until recently. What's changed out of interest?!

I believed in the Imperial College report about what happens with no measures, and had expected about 20 000 deaths by now and our intensive care units filled around April 10, and the exponential curve of cases/serious cases/deaths to keep rising for longer than it did. But its now turning out that despite not doing much at all, our curve is flat and our plateu managable.

Our approach was that we start with soft measures and if it gets too bad we take stronger measures. A gradual tightening of measures rather than a gradual loosening, but we never reached what we consider "lockdown levels of bad" (knock on wood) and if this shit comes in a second wave next fall/winter (very likely), we will likely be in a fantastic spot.

I don't think it's working.. Seems to me the numbers are getting worse in Sweden at the moment.

Alright, but it seems to the numbers that the numbers of intensive care patients and deaths are steady with perhaps a tiny decrease.

 

[Mellotron]

I think a few are looking at the situation a little too black and white.

It’s not “lockdown” or “no lockdown”. It will be somewhere in the middle, as it has to be. And it will only work if people believe in it, so I hope the Government get their messaging right in the coming weeks.

 

[Rugrat]

They could be other key workers?

Just out of interest.

Does she tell you how many people are in the hospital atm with covid?

They could well be but I assume that would be common knowledge amongst staff.

I don't know that number .. she is my mates's wife in Oxford and no idea what it's like up there

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

They could well be but I assume that would be common knowledge amongst staff.

I don't know that number .. she is my mates's wife in Oxford and no idea what it's like up there

Supermarket workers etc would they know

 

[LamieRobertson]

Those looking for positive news stories at the daily briefing in the middle of a deadly pandemic might want to stick to the good news thread on this website and stop watching them.

Are people (on this forum) really looking for good news stories in the way you suggest ...I’d say accurate info ..relevant questions ..answers to those and balance!

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Erm, don't most of the attendees come from London/Surrey, not Cheltenham?

I thought half were Irish?

 

[Napper]

They could well be but I assume that would be common knowledge amongst staff.

I don't know that number .. she is my mates's wife in Oxford and no idea what it's like up there

hospitals down here in a pretty healthy position all things considered.

hoping when things relaxed they will take a more regional approach as it is not too bad down here at all

 

[LamieRobertson]

and therein lies the problem. Many (of all ages) aren't bothered (and I can see a microcosm of that in activity near me) but the bit they don't seem to get (they say they do) is that a decent number will need to be hospitalised, they may well recover but front line staff are dying. I know one nurse who's now getting really frustrated to the point she wants to know what the people being admitted now were doing that caused them to get it. I'm sure many/most did all they could to avoid it ... not everyone maybe?

Track and trace

 

[Machiavelli]

I think a few are looking at the situation a little too black and white.

It’s not “lockdown” or “no lockdown”. It will be somewhere in the middle, as it has to be. And it will only work if people believe in it, so I hope the Government get their messaging right in the coming weeks.

Exactly. And here's the first bit of concrete information I've stumbled across about plans -- or, what some are calling, "plans about plans" -- for easing out of lockdown. It comes from Scotland and (I know I'll get flamed by some for having the temerity to say this) is just another illustration of how much better a leader Scotland has than the whole of the UK.

Scotland publishes framework for leaving lockdown and adjusting to 'new normal'

Scotland must adjust to “new normal” of living with Covid-19, which may include cycling in and out of strict lockdown at short notice, according to a document just published by the Scottish government, which sets out its framework for progressing beyond the current lockdown restrictions.

The 26-page document summarises the Scottish government’s approach as follows:

Suppress the virus through compliance with physical distancing and hygiene measures, ensuring that the reproduction number remains below 1 and that the NHS remains within capacity.

Care for those who need it, whether infected by the virus or not.

Support people, business and organisations affected by the crisis.

Recover to a new normal, carefully easing restrictions when safe to do so while maintaining necessary measures and ensuring that transmission remains controlled, supported by developments in medicine and technology.

Protect against this and future pandemics, including through effective testing, contact tracing and isolation.

Renew the country, building a fairer and more sustainable economy and society.

It warns the public to expect a cycle of lifting and re-imposing restrictions, with the possibility of restrictions being re-imposed quickly if transmission suddenly escalates; talks about the urgent need to redesign workplaces and education settings to allow for proper social distancing; the need for “unprecedented levels of support and compliance from the whole population”.

It also concludes that now is not the right time to relax restrictions, but that over the next few weeks, based on the evidence and expert advice, options will be considered that include the easing of restrictions in a phased manner, for example easing restrictions on some outdoor activity before those on indoor activities, as well as tailoring options to specific geographies and sectors, or parts of the rural economy, or those able to work outdoors.

 

[Rugrat]

Yes. As you can see on the chart you posted we have the rougly the same number of new cases / new intensive care cases / new deaths now as three weels ago despite no lockdown which means our curve is more or less fla. Since our approach is not to reach zero cases, but a steady curve until immunity/seasonal aspects start doing the job "naturally", it seems to be working.

I dont get how it is worse when deaths per capita are lower (despitecounting care home deaths every day) while also keeping society almost entirely open.

Well having flat daily numbers of 600-700 new cases and 200 deaths going out ad infinitum isn't a good prospect and I'm not at all sure there's evidence that seasonal aspects play much of a role. Herd immunity is fine but there's (likely to be) a long way to go yet.

Deaths per capita are lower but I believe we royally screwed up in the week or two before lockdown and that we are just a far more transient population and our huge urban areas might be the difference.

I don't know any more than the next man but on the face of it I don't think either of the UK or Sweden are doing the right thing.

 

[Rugrat]

Track and trace

I don't disagree but doesn't that get all the 'big brother' nimby's up in arms?

 

[LamieRobertson]

I don't disagree but doesn't that get all the 'big brother' nimby's up in arms?

Lol ...yeah possibly .i know which I’d prefer

 

[RossyG]

This is how Covid triage works. The higher the number, the more likely you’ll be left to die. Oh and men are automatically given a one point handicap because...?

 

[The Wizard]

514 England
17 Wales
58 Scotland
NI - updated later

Probably just under 600 new deaths, I guess about where we expect. RIP.

 

[Machiavelli]

This is how Covid triage works. The higher the number, the more likely you’ll be left to die. Oh and men are automatically given a one point handicap because...?

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Is it because experts are feminists?

 

[Birdie Boy]

I have just heard of somebody that has just died of Covid - 19. I don't know him. He was early fifties with no underlying conditions and not over weight. Been ill for 3.5 weeks and been on a ventilator for at least a week. Lived in the Midlands.

I'm early fifties, no underlying conditions except mildly high bp and slightly over weight. It's bringing this shit home.

 

[Napper]

I have just heard of somebody that has just died of Covid - 19. I don't know him. He was early fifties with no underlying conditions and not over weight. Been ill for 3.5 weeks and been on a ventilator for at least a week. Lived in the Midlands.

I'm early fifties, no underlying conditions except mildly high bp and slightly over weight. It's bringing this shit home.

try not to worry , majority of people absolutely fine with it

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

I think the briefing today will attempt to put a more positive spin on what we are all doing as after Whitty yesterday there must be millions of people thinking, what's the f ing point ?

 

[Albion Dan]

I think many people are more compassionate and caring about others than might be believed.

People are only currently looking at the small picture. When it becomes obvious that the effect of the restrictions is going to lead to many many many more deaths and social struggle long term than if the disease was allowed to run its course opinion will change.

This message is already becoming blatantly obvious and people are waking up fast.

 

[Albion Dan]

Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Dicsussion Thread

This is a useful graph, one [MENTION=38333]Swansman[/MENTION] in particular might find interesting.

View attachment 122674

Great chart. Goes to show the models are full of nonsense and our economy and way of life are being destroyed for no good reason.