Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Hugo Rune]

The masks question was interesting at the daily press conference. Despite the US and almost every SE Asian country and some European Countries recommending their use, the government’s scientific advisors are still gathering data and won’t confirm if masks are effective or not.

There will be profound world shortages of these by the time the scientists come back with the irrefutable evidence that they work.

We’re going to be last in the queue again. This is why as a Politician, you should not hold every decision to scientific scrutiny that can take months as the rest of the world mop up all the ventilators, PPE and now face masks.

 

[Mellotron]

The masks question was interesting at the daily press conference. Despite the US and almost every SE Asian country and some European Countries recommending their use, the government’s scientific advisors are still gathering data and won’t confirm if masks are effective or not.

There will be profound world shortages of these by the time the scientists come back with the irrefutable evidence that they work.

We’re going to be last in the queue again. This is why as a Politician, you should not hold every decision to scientific scrutiny that can take months as the rest of the world mop up all the ventilators, PPE and now face masks.

I suspect they aren't recommending it because they know we simply don't have enough for everyone.

 

[Mellotron]

Suggestion in today's update that the Rate of Transmission (R number) will be below 1 in communities, but still possibly not overall under 1 in the UK, at this stage.

 

[Notters]

Given UK's death toll I think we'll be seeing a fair bit of herd immunity also. In a funny way, countries like Germany who have quashed the initial wave far better might struggle to fully open up as easily. Initial tests in Bergamo suggesting as many as 60% may have been infected.

exactly! And as intended by the government.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

The masks question was interesting at the daily press conference. Despite the US and almost every SE Asian country and some European Countries recommending their use, the government’s scientific advisors are still gathering data and won’t confirm if masks are effective or not.

There will be profound world shortages of these by the time the scientists come back with the irrefutable evidence that they work.

We’re going to be last in the queue again. This is why as a Politician, you should not hold every decision to scientific scrutiny that can take months as the rest of the world mop up all the ventilators, PPE and now face masks.

So presumably you agree with the government decision to pay for the antibody tests? The ones which didn't work.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

It's been mentioned that masks have a limited lifetime, so you can't stock millions and millions of them just in case a pandemic comes along.

Sent from my WAS-LX1A using Tapatalk

Really? I have just looked up the N95 3M 8000 mask on an FDA paper and this has a shelf of at least 10 years if stored in the correct conditions. Maybe stockpile these? And hopefully there is a need to replace them every 10 years.

 

[Triggaaar]

This is potentially very telling from Chris Whitty in the update today;



i.e. If you think you've had it in the past month or so, you probably have had it. I hope so. That makes me think they are looking at very different numbers to us in terms of how many have been infected in the UK.

Specifically what do you mean? ie, what numbers are they looking at, and what numbers are we looking at?

 

[Swansman]

I suspect they aren't recommending it because they know we simply don't have enough for everyone.

Agree with this. Most of the scepticism about masks seem to come from countries having a rough time even supplying enough masks to their healthcare systems. But obviously very few politicians would say "yeah masks are wonderful but there is no ****ing chance in hell we'll be able to provide for everyone".

 

[Triggaaar]

Given UK's death toll I think we'll be seeing a fair bit of herd immunity also. In a funny way, countries like Germany who have quashed the initial wave far better might struggle to fully open up as easily. Initial tests in Bergamo suggesting as many as 60% may have been infected.

But a higher percentage of the population in Bergamo have been infected than the rest of Italy, and much higher than here in the UK. And they had a high fatality rate, which would see over 1 million in the UK die if we matched it.

I don't get the impression that we'll be able to open up more easily than Germany, because it's still likely to be a low percentage of our population who have had the virus.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Really? I have just looked up the N95 3M 8000 mask on an FDA paper and this has a shelf of at least 10 years if stored in the correct conditions. Maybe stockpile these? And hopefully there is a need to replace them every 10 years.

Indeed. South Korea stockpiled then after SARS (not sure what spec). They’ve been dishing out 2-per-day-per-person since January.

 

[beorhthelm]

The masks question was interesting at the daily press conference. Despite the US and almost every SE Asian country and some European Countries recommending their use, the government’s scientific advisors are still gathering data and won’t confirm if masks are effective or not.

There will be profound world shortages of these by the time the scientists come back with the irrefutable evidence that they work.

We’re going to be last in the queue again. This is why as a Politician, you should not hold every decision to scientific scrutiny that can take months as the rest of the world mop up all the ventilators, PPE and now face masks.

we should not play the political football on this face mask issue. originally everyone and their dog said face masks are not effective unless they are the correct grade, fitted correctly, put on and disposed of correctly. medical masks (your basic mask not up to N95 spec) are most suited for those with a diesese to prevent spreading to others. now some are saying, on the basis of the second point, that maybe we should wear masks after all, just in case.

now, think about what will happen to the supply of masks for hospital and care worker if the entire population follows this lead and wears unsuitable masks for little to no benefit?

lets stick to the original guidance an not knee jerk change.

WHO guidance

When to use a mask
- If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection.
- Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing.
- Masks are effective only when used in combination with frequent hand-cleaning with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.
- If you wear a mask, then you must know how to use it and dispose of it properly.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

we should not play the political football on this face mask issue. originally everyone and their dog said face masks are not effective unless they are the correct grade, fitted correctly, put on and disposed of correctly. medical masks (your basic mask not up to N95 spec) are most suited for those with a diesese to prevent spreading to others. now some are saying, on the basis of the second point, that maybe we should wear masks after all, just in case.

Maybe ensure they are the correct grade, fitted correctly, put on and disposed of correctly then?

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

It's been mentioned that masks have a limited lifetime, so you can't stock millions and millions of them just in case a pandemic comes along.

Sent from my WAS-LX1A using Tapatalk

I mentioned that here after watching a TV report or reading an article that clearly stated the reason PPE equipment wasn't generally stockpiled, was due to it having a very short shelf life. From HT's post, I would now treat that comment with scepticism.

 

[beorhthelm]

Maybe ensure they are the correct grade, fitted correctly, put on and disposed of correctly then?

yeah, if you think that could work. just need to put in an order to 3M for a few hundred billion units.

 

[Mellotron]

But a higher percentage of the population in Bergamo have been infected than the rest of Italy, and much higher than here in the UK. And they had a high fatality rate, which would see over 1 million in the UK die if we matched it.

I don't get the impression that we'll be able to open up more easily than Germany, because it's still likely to be a low percentage of our population who have had the virus.

But certainly higher than Germany’s, given the respective death tolls, thus easier to open up.

 

[Triggaaar]

But certainly higher than Germany’s, given the respective death tolls, thus easier to open up.

Say we've had 4 times as many cases as Germany, and let's say 2% of their population has had it, and 8% of ours has. 8% is not in the realms of herd immunity, so I don't see how it's easier for us to open up. Also bear in mind that if we try to open up, more of our citizens have it, so it'll spread more.

 

[Bozza]

The masks question was interesting at the daily press conference. Despite the US and almost every SE Asian country and some European Countries recommending their use, the government’s scientific advisors are still gathering data and won’t confirm if masks are effective or not.

There will be profound world shortages of these by the time the scientists come back with the irrefutable evidence that they work.

We’re going to be last in the queue again. This is why as a Politician, you should not hold every decision to scientific scrutiny that can take months as the rest of the world mop up all the ventilators, PPE and now face masks.

Non-medical masks, of the kind the general public wear, can be easily made at home. Many Americans I know have fashioned their own since being instructed to wear them.

3M can only make a small fraction of the N95 masks that the US need themselves, and Trump has invoked the Defense Production Act on 3M, so I’m not sure supply to the rest of the world will amount to a great deal, and it was already poor.


https://www.whitehouse.gov/presiden...-defense-production-act-regarding-3m-company/

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

yeah, if you think that could work. just need to put in an order to 3M for a few hundred billion units.

I’m not sure that many would be needed. But yeah, going back to that pandemic study the government did, and the risk mitigation analysis, work out how many are needed, buy them and pop them in storage. Put a reminder in the calendar for 10 year’s time. Job done and move onto gowns.

 

[The Wizard]

Surely our population density will lead to more people having been infected than Germany, England has a 55m population & 150k km2, Germany has 83M with 357km2

Take Brighton as an example, we had our first confirmed case and 3rd confirmed case in the U.K. on the 6th February(suspected the whole family were infected) and given how infectious this is maybe more people in Brighton have had this? The death toll and infection rate in Brighton seems much much lower than it ‘should be, maybe here would be a good place to get antibodies testing started when they get a reliable one.

 

[SK1NT]

i haven't seen it mentioned on the thread... sorry if it has but i just watched the film Contagion... wow how very similar to what we are currently going through... a film from 2011. Starting with the virus coming from China originating from bats, to the symptoms being a fever and a dry cough. Worth a watch