Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Solid at the back]

They ignored it? News to me.

Yeah, are you not able to see that through the lack of preparation and introduction of late measures?

 

[beorhthelm]

Top rate tax throughout the 50s and 60s about 90%, wasn't it? I can see that going down well with the Tory donors and their media pals.

however tax revenue in 50s and 60s was lower % of GDP, so what help was it?

a sensible approach would be to decide upon a recovery strategy and policy, then look at how to delivery that including funding. not look where to find funds from without strategy.

 

[ManOfSussex]

I suspect and fear that you are right on this. But the question then becomes, what do you expect the fiscal policy framework will be for the aftermath?

Goodness only knows.

I was messaging someone last night about this. I'm not saying it will happen and the end result and final score will be changed and awarded to the opposition instead, but I suspect there's some rye smiles forming in quite a few graves, tombs and mausoleums in the Kremlin Wall Necropolis, Red Square and elsewhere in that part of the world at present at the thought of the economic aftermath and what may need to be done globally.

 

[Mtoto]

Do what most of Europe did in the immediate aftermath of WW2: introduce a series of progressive wealth and income taxes

Most of Europe, though, has electoral systems where that can happen if 51pc of people vote for parties that support it.

Under FPTP, it only takes 38pc to vote against and it's a non-starter.

 

[Swansman]

There were originally thoughts that this virus would ease during the Summer, as flu does, is this now pie in the sky or still a hope?

No one knows for certain but I think its likely that heat (or actually rather sunlight + humidity) could decrease transmission significantly. Especially if its airborne since high humidity make viruses "drop to the ground" quicker. Viruses also dont like UV. And if these coronaviruses - obviously thriving in bat caves and co-evolving with bats for possibly millions of years - also thrive in the sunlight, its pretty weird.

We'll see. Obviously it wont "go away" completely but I defo think there is a good chance of a huge decrease in numbers over the summer.

Hopefully I'm wrong though since if you dont slowly achieve some level of immunity in the population the fall/winter could be a disaster even compared to what we're seeing now.

"Another, published in mid-March by researchers from Spain and Finland, found that 95% of infections globally have so far occurred at temperatures between about 28° and 50° F, and in dry climates."

 

[Machiavelli]

Most of Europe, though, has electoral systems where that can happen if 51pc of people vote for parties that support it.

Under FPTP, it only takes 38pc to vote against and it's a non-starter.

True, but to add a bit of nuance to your response, the UK did this in the post-war period despite FPTP, and it held for both Labour and Conservative governments, 1945-1979. Regarding the UK's current party political situation, there is some serious thinking that needs doing, especially from the Labour Party. It's highly unlikely to win back its Scottish vote, and this means that its ability to win a UK election will remain extremely low.
That said, it seems far more likely that there will be a range of policy and fiscal responses in the aftermath of this, and it may well transpire that with this experimentation whichever one works best or is deemed most fair increasingly become adopted by other national polities.

 

[Bob'n'weave]

No one knows for certain but I think its likely that heat (or actually rather sunlight + humidity) could decrease transmission significantly. Especially if its airborne since high humidity make viruses "drop to the ground" quicker. Viruses also dont like UV. And if these coronaviruses - obviously thriving in bat caves and co-evolving with bats for possibly millions of years - also thrive in the sunlight, its pretty weird.

We'll see. Obviously it wont "go away" completely but I defo think there is a good chance of a huge decrease in numbers over the summer.

Hopefully I'm wrong though since if you dont slowly achieve some level of immunity in the population the fall/winter could be a disaster even compared to what we're seeing now.

"Another, published in mid-March by researchers from Spain and Finland, found that 95% of infections globally have so far occurred at temperatures between about 28° and 50° F, and in dry climates."

Not sure about this. Iv'e read in other studies/reports that there is no evidence to suggest that the virus is susceptible to heat - and it is thriving in countries with hot climates. Also, i've read that humidity and airflow (wind) could assist airborne transmission making safe social distancing more like 6-8 metres instead of two. Difficult to sort the wheat from the chaff on this one.

 

[beorhthelm]

Not sure about this. Iv'e read in other studies/reports that there is no evidence to suggest that the virus is susceptible to heat - and it is thriving in countries with hot climates. Also, i've read that humidity and airflow (wind) could assist airborne transmission making safe social distancing more like 6-8 metres instead of two. Difficult to sort the wheat from the chaff on this one.

its pretty well studied by now, and determined that coronavirus is spread by droplets, either in air momenatily or settled on surfaces. it is not airborne, floating around in the air for extended time.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Not sure about this. Iv'e read in other studies/reports that there is no evidence to suggest that the virus is susceptible to heat - and it is thriving in countries with hot climates. Also, i've read that humidity and airflow (wind) could assist airborne transmission making safe social distancing more like 6-8 metres instead of two. Difficult to sort the wheat from the chaff on this one.

Sunlight will kill viruses on surfaces, but not if it goes through glass.

In hot countries it may be that more people shelter indoors together away from the midday sun.

Also, aircon systems must have a big question mark over their Covid safety.

 

[Swansman]

More and more countries, Sweden today ie, are now starting to talk about the potential threat to food & water supply. (or rather things like production of water purification chemicals). And I know that in Singapore they last week decided to invest in food production on roof tops etc.

Scary. Definitely going to stash up some water, got about 200 PET bottles anyhow..

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

More and more countries, Sweden today ie, are now starting to talk about the potential threat to food & water supply. (or rather things like production of water purification chemicals). And I know that in Singapore they last week decided to invest in food production on roof tops etc.

Scary. Definitely going to stash up some water, got about 200 PET bottles anyhow..

I knew the 500 water purification tablets I bought for *no deal brexit* would come in handy lol.

 

[beorhthelm]

More and more countries, Sweden today ie, are now starting to talk about the potential threat to food & water supply. (or rather things like production of water purification chemicals). And I know that in Singapore they last week decided to invest in food production on roof tops etc.

Scary. Definitely going to stash up some water, got about 200 PET bottles anyhow..

sounds like good old fashion scaremongering. why wouldnt water and related chemicals be priority, protected industry like elsewhere?

 

[Swansman]

sounds like good old fashion scaremongering. why wouldnt water and related chemicals be priority, protected industry like elsewhere?

If you look through the history of this thread you'll find:
1. The virus is just a flu, saying else is "scaremongering"
2. Projections of "many thousand deaths is just scaremongering, the Italian healthcare is bad and their population old and jadda jadda".
3. Lockdown in London.. scaremongering

That something is a priority or "protected" doesnt mean its magically going to go unaffected by this. The people working with and producing these chemicals are human and this virus infects humans. In the optimal world I guess someone could say "you guys can have the coronavirus, but you guys cant" and the virus would just agree and do what its told, but disaster could strike any human and any industry - regardless of importance.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

If you look through the history of this thread you'll find:
1. The virus is just a flu, saying else is "scaremongering"
2. Projections of "many thousand deaths is just scaremongering, the Italian healthcare is bad and their population old and jadda jadda".
3. Lockdown in London.. scaremongering

That something is a priority or "protected" doesnt mean its magically going to go unaffected by this. The people working with and producing these chemicals are human and this virus infects humans. In the optimal world I guess someone could say "you guys can have the coronavirus, but you guys cant" and the virus would just agree and do what its told, but disaster could strike any human and any industry - regardless of importance.

Even though Sweden looks like it'll be hit very hard, there should be a payoff with a very small 2nd wave... seems like a place to go on holiday later in the year when the 2nd wave hits elsewhere... could be boom time for your tourism in fact... visit the country immune to the virus...

 

[The Wizard]

697 total U.K. deaths announced initially. Take with a pinch of salt however due to weekend recording issues.

 

[Mellotron]

697 total U.K. deaths announced initially. Take with a pinch of salt however due to weekend recording issues.

Sky News is reporting 667?

Suspect we will know in the next 2-3 days whether 980 was our peak.

 

[RossyG]

Even though Sweden looks like it'll be hit very hard, there should be a payoff with a very small 2nd wave... seems like a place to go on holiday later in the year when the 2nd wave hits elsewhere... could be boom time for your tourism in fact... visit the country immune to the virus...

The deaths per million in Sweden seem to be flattening according to this graph. Not sure if this is a long Easter weekend effect, though, with deaths not being reported.

 

[Swansman]

Even though Sweden looks like it'll be hit very hard, there should be a payoff with a very small 2nd wave... seems like a place to go on holiday later in the year when the 2nd wave hits elsewhere... could be boom time for your tourism in fact... visit the country immune to the virus...

Yeah I hope that payoff will come, both in number of cases/deaths and level of freedom. There is a chance our society will be quite normal in the fall/winter while the rest of you are locked up for six months or so... making tourism unlikely.

 

[Mellotron]

Yeah I hope that payoff will come, both in number of cases/deaths and level of freedom. There is a chance our society will be quite normal in the fall/winter while the rest of you are locked up for six months or so... making tourism unlikely.

Given UK's death toll I think we'll be seeing a fair bit of herd immunity also. In a funny way, countries like Germany who have quashed the initial wave far better might struggle to fully open up as easily. Initial tests in Bergamo suggesting as many as 60% may have been infected.

 

[Swansman]

The deaths per million in Sweden seem to be flattening according to this graph. Not sure if this is a long Easter weekend effect, though, with deaths not being reported.

View attachment 122160

It is the Easter weekend effect. Those numbers will change tomorrow or Wednesday.