Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Solid at the back]

Very interesting looking back at your posts over the last few months on this thread.

You’ve kind of acted like Fiver in Watership Down with some frighteningly accurate predictions at a time when folk on here questioned your mental health, advised you to take time away from the board and accused you of scaremongering. Your only mistake throughout was to quote death rates of hundreds of millions (although this might occur if Covid-19 ever gets a proper grip in developing countries), you were calling the exact ‘Hammer’ measures at the right times (in my opinion) to stop this thing spreading out of control. Visionary stuff, well done.

If you were advising the government and they’d listened to your advice (Boris was on holiday at the time you wanted the government to really pull their finger out so perhaps not!), we’d be looking at no more than a double digit death toll in my opinion. We might even be out of lockdown now.

As you will know, being an Island nation offers huge advantages, as Farage knew only too well, you can easily control your borders compared to countries like France, Germany, Italy and Spain. New Zealand closed their borders weeks and weeks ago, at the equivalent time to when we had the super spreader alarm call in Brighton in terms of infections. They have tracked and traced and recorded just one death, that’s right, one death. I noticed you ‘called’ that border close here very very early.

Looking back at those posts brings back awful anxiety. The biggest reason I felt I was so anxious was because nobody was taking the potential (at that time) devastation this virus could cause remotely seriously. Currently, it's not too bad as I braced myself for this situation.

Maybe I got carried away calling for border closures on 26 Jan, at the time I felt we should of closed them sooner. But in reality we should of done so in early Feb, probably when we had the situation with the super spreader down here.

Also when I suggested that it would wipe out half the globe, that was a particularly bad night for me. But make no mistake, I think everyone is clear now that if measures wern't in place 100s of millions across the globe would succumb to this. Which is why it is so important we stick to the guidelines.

I still have to.work, I keep 2 metres from everyone, wash and sanitise my hands atleast every 20 minutes. Leave mail posted through the door for a couple of days, wear gloves when filling up at petrol station etc. But am told I go way over the top!

 

[CHAPPERS]

Seems in Sweden, we will start testing for antibodies next week (healthcare personel prioritized obviously). With 7000 tests a week I expect to be tested some time in 2028.

Does an antibody test that actually works exist?

 

[beorhthelm]

Does an antibody test that actually works exist?

ive been reading companies announce they have one and orders for millions since early March or before. yet none seems to be showing up, no numbers on test results one would expect.

going to be a problem for Hancock as they are major part of the 100k tests a day promised.

 

[oldboyroy]

ive been reading companies announce they have one and orders for millions since early March or before. yet none seems to be showing up, no numbers on test results one would expect.

going to be a problem for Hancock as they are major part of the 100k tests a day promised.

There is no chance of the 100000 daily tests being carried out by end of April. I would be surprised if it gets to around 50000

 

[Swansman]

Sweden made 773 random tests in Stockholm.. only 2,5% was carrying the virus... Small sample but I think the rate is worryingly low

 

[ManOfSussex]

81 in Scotland yesterday, higher than the day before.

 

[Bakero]

Sweden made 773 random tests in Stockholm.. only 2,5% was carrying the virus... Small sample but I think the rate is worryingly low

Strange that it's so different to similar studies in Italy.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Normally bad forecasts get shouted down on NSC, but here you go anyway.

Warning : Grim again.

https://sangeetabhatia03.github.io/covid19-short-term-forecasts/index.html

Summary : >5000 Covid-19 deaths next week in UK.

EDIT : Detailed figure in that report ( found by clicking through to relevant sub page ) is between 8,380 and 16,200 for UK next week.

 

[Swansman]

Strange that it's so different to similar studies in Italy.

Yes... and no. The cultural difference is massive, probably one of the bigger in Europe...

 

[darkwolf666]

Normally bad forecasts get shouted down on NSC, but here you go anyway.

Warning : Grim again.

https://sangeetabhatia03.github.io/covid19-short-term-forecasts/index.html

Summary : >5000 Covid-19 deaths next week in UK.

I think there should be a separate thread for all these models or predictions, then in a couple of weeks we can go back and say **** me they were right, or see told you they were talking shite...

For me, a lot of these forecasts deliberately go for the high numbers, so they can look like they know something that the other modellers don't - I doubt, if their figures are wrong anyone is going to go back and tell them they were shite... no one wants to read models where the numbers are low, or the same as everyone else's, we all just like the dramatic!

Catches the headlines, catches the eye...

And no, not shouting you down, just not sure we need yet another forecast of doom!

Especially not on the same day when people working for the passport office are being forced back to work!

 

[darkwolf666]

Yes... and no. The cultural difference is massive, probably one of the bigger in Europe...

View attachment 121953

Have they got very long buses so they can sit that far apart when they get on, or do they have a bus each

 

[The Wizard]

81 deaths in Scotland, 41 in wales, 765 in England.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

81 deaths in Scotland, 41 in wales, 765 in England.

Lower than yesterday. Although terrible, I was wondering if we would breach 1000 deaths a day and I am quite relieved considering everything.

It will be interesting to see the new case numbers.

 

[The Wizard]

Lower than yesterday. Although terrible, I was wondering if we would breach 1000 deaths a day and I am quite relieved considering everything.

It will be interesting to see the new case numbers.

Yeah, although Wales have decided to change how they record their daily cases so not sure how much will be garnered from it, normally comes out between 2-4PM. Hopefully we have reached our peak.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Lower than yesterday. Although terrible, I was wondering if we would breach 1000 deaths a day and I am quite relieved considering everything.

It will be interesting to see the new case numbers.

My thoughts entirely.

 

[jabba]

Does an antibody test that actually works exist?

I think there is a lab-based test that is reliable but low throughput being used at Porton Down.
It is the rapid "pregnancy" type test (although using blood not urine) that is proving difficult, not least because most of us have been infected with a coronavirus in the past and the test must be specific for this particular one.

 

[Mellotron]

Lower than yesterday. Although terrible, I was wondering if we would breach 1000 deaths a day and I am quite relieved considering everything.

It will be interesting to see the new case numbers.

Yeah, although Wales have decided to change how they record their daily cases so not sure how much will be garnered from it, normally comes out between 2-4PM. Hopefully we have reached our peak.

My thoughts entirely.

Worth mentioning also that it is likely yesterday's numbers were slightly artificially high as they confirmed some were figures from the previous weekend.

I suspect we will continue to see figures of 600-800 per day for about 7-10 days, very slowly reducing overall, but with the odd unexpected wobble upwards or downwards.

We are very much in the eye of the storm now.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

OK. This is bad...

https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1247551346095644678?s=21

Checking the sources, the poster of the tweet is a doctor and former member of the World Health Organisation. He is quoting research by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). I wasn’t familiar with the IHME so I looked it up. It was formed in 2007, largely via a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Wikipedia gives its purpose as “accelerating global health progress through sound measurement and accountable science”. As such, it wouldn’t seem to have a political agenda.

I wasn’t immediately able to find the research to bear out the poster’s claim that the UK could be heading for the highest per-capita death rate from Covid-19. It’s probably in there. I shall look again when I don’t have an early shift the following morning. What I did find was a projection that suggests our peak demand is 10 days away and that we could have just shy of 3,000 deaths on April 17th. The projection admits to a sizeable margin of error so we can only hope it will not be so bad. The bed shortage numbers are quite eye popping too.

I would post more but, as I said, I’m off to bed. I may revisit this tomorrow afternoon but if some of you are better placed to interrogate the data than I am right now, please do so.

I’m genuinely very scared now.

Thankfully as expected, this prediction seems way out several days down the line. Instead of today's 887 figure, we would be seeing 1616 deaths today.

 

[Mellotron]

In other news, the Grandmother of my sister-in-law's husband is in Hospital atm with confirmed COVID - she has been in for about 4-5 days and after being at a very bad point she has stabilised slightly, whilst still not exactly out of the woods yet.

They have offered for her to try one of the drugs being trialled (suspect hydroxychloroquine from what the husband said but not certain) and she has said yes.

 

[darkwolf666]

In other news, the Grandmother of my sister-in-law's husband is in Hospital atm with confirmed COVID - she has been in for about 4-5 days and after being at a very bad point she has stabilised slightly, whilst still not exactly out of the woods yet..

They have offered for her to try one of the drugs being trialled (suspect hydroxychloroquine from what the husband said but not certain) and she has said yes.

Good luck to her, fingers crossed...