Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Diablo]

Sorry, but where are you getting the figure of 854 from?

The UK's coronavirus death toll has risen by 854. England reported 758 new deaths, Scotland 74, Wales 19 and Northern Ireland three. BBC

 

[The Wookiee]

The UK's coronavirus death toll has risen by 854. England reported 758 new deaths, Scotland 74, Wales 19 and Northern Ireland three. BBC

That’s how I saw it earlier, but now looks like it’s gone down to 786, how does that work ?

 

[KZNSeagull]

We need some new journalists on the daily briefing. This current crop are crap.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

That’s how I saw it earlier, but now looks like it’s gone down to 786, how does that work ?

I think some of them have been assigned to previous days

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Are they still only reporting deaths in hospitals?

 

[Machiavelli]

Whilst this is true, it's a broadly gausian pattern so will fall at a similar rate to which it has risen.

Gausian: that's a bell curve innit?

 

[Machiavelli]

That’s how I saw it earlier, but now looks like it’s gone down to 786, how does that work ?

786 is the UK hospitalised deaths; 854 total UK deaths (you'd imagine that's care homes kicking in)

 

[The Wizard]

No massive spikes yet, which is a good thing? 14000 tests done as well.

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

From today’s conference it seemed as though we are not reporting care home deaths.

 

[Mellotron]

View attachment 121868View attachment 121869

No massive spikes yet, which is a good thing? 14000 tests done as well.

Some suggestions we are hitting our infection peak now/already have, logically you would hope to see death peak fairly soon also.

 

[The Wookiee]

786 is the UK hospitalised deaths; 854 total UK deaths (you'd imagine that's care homes kicking in)

This says patient 854 patient deaths, if you add England, Scotland, Wales and NI together

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-patient-deaths-rise-by-758-in-england-11969899

 

[The Wizard]

Some suggestions we are hitting our infection peak now/already have, logically you would hope to see death peak fairly soon also.

Yeah, given we are 15 days since the lockdown officially begun you would think infections would have reached a peak or near to peak, although real infections must be many times what’s reported considering we’ve only just in the last few days got consistently over 10k tests done, and have only been testing hospital cases.

That’s actually my biggest worry, Boris for example had mild symptoms for 10 days+ or so, what about all the people who are currently at home with symptoms but untested, who could also deteriorate?

 

[drew]

786 is the UK hospitalised deaths; 854 total UK deaths (you'd imagine that's care homes kicking in)

Is there a link verifying this, ie where is it shown about the 68 deaths away from hospital (which to me sounds very low).

 

[Mellotron]

Yeah, given we are 15 days since the lockdown officially begun you would think infections would have reached a peak or near to peak, although real infections must be many times what’s reported considering we’ve only just in the last few days got consistently over 10k tests done, and have only been testing hospital cases.

That’s actually my biggest worry, Boris for example had mild symptoms for 10 days+ or so, what about all the people who are currently at home with symptoms but untested, who could also deteriorate?

I understand that, however we might find some solace in that fact that new cases aren’t rising much despite testing rising.

 

[drew]

This says patient 854 patient deaths, if you add England, Scotland, Wales and NI together

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-patient-deaths-rise-by-758-in-england-11969899

Trouble is that Sky don't link it to any official figures and they've reported the wrong ones before!

They should just take the figures from each 24 hour period that the countries are reporting, doesn't matter if England do 2pm to 2pm and Scotland do 9am to 9am as long as it is consistent.

 

[Machiavelli]

Is there a link verifying this, ie where is it shown about the 68 deaths away from hospital (which to me sounds very low).

For quick reference, see the sidebar of this live thread:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...mp-america-us-praying-recovery-latest-updates

Note, there isn't a link verifying where the 68 non-hospitalised deaths came from. I speculated that it might be care homes, and it was clear that it was speculation in that post

 

[Wrong-Direction]

More NHS staff crammed into tiny offices, apparently its safer than the wards..

Sent from my SM-A600FN using Tapatalk

 

[jimhigham]

OK. This is bad...

https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1247551346095644678?s=21

Checking the sources, the poster of the tweet is a doctor and former member of the World Health Organisation. He is quoting research by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). I wasn’t familiar with the IHME so I looked it up. It was formed in 2007, largely via a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Wikipedia gives its purpose as “accelerating global health progress through sound measurement and accountable science”. As such, it wouldn’t seem to have a political agenda.

I wasn’t immediately able to find the research to bear out the poster’s claim that the UK could be heading for the highest per-capita death rate from Covid-19. It’s probably in there. I shall look again when I don’t have an early shift the following morning. What I did find was a projection that suggests our peak demand is 10 days away and that we could have just shy of 3,000 deaths on April 17th. The projection admits to a sizeable margin of error so we can only hope it will not be so bad. The bed shortage numbers are quite eye popping too.

I would post more but, as I said, I’m off to bed. I may revisit this tomorrow afternoon but if some of you are better placed to interrogate the data than I am right now, please do so.

I’m genuinely very scared now.

 

[The Wizard]

OK. This is bad...

https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1247551346095644678?s=21

Checking the sources, the poster of the tweet is a doctor and former member of the World Health Organisation. He is quoting research by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). I wasn’t familiar with the IHME so I looked it up. It was formed in 2007, largely via a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Wikipedia gives its purpose as “accelerating global health progress through sound measurement and accountable science”. As such, it wouldn’t seem to have a political agenda.

I wasn’t immediately able to find the research to bear out the poster’s claim that the UK could be heading for the highest per-capita death rate from Covid-19. It’s probably in there. I shall look again when I don’t have an early shift the following morning. What I did find was a projection that suggests our peak demand is 10 days away and that we could have just shy of 3,000 deaths on April 17th. The projection admits to a sizeable margin of error so we can only hope it will not be so bad. The bed shortage numbers are quite eye popping too.

I would post more but, as I said, I’m off to bed. I may revisit this tomorrow afternoon but if some of you are better placed to interrogate the data than I am right now, please do so.

I’m genuinely very scared now.

Totally and utterly false, nonsense numbers. Genuinely how anyone or any program can ‘predict’ anything about this with regards to numbers is utterly ridiculous and should not be allowed. Terrible.

 

[atomised]

I've seen that posted in several places today, 2 or 3 references to it on here but the calculations they.are using still make no sense. Maybe it's because I'm terrified they could be right but I think it's more likely that I'm not convinced our trajectory is quite as bad as they suggest nor that the likes of spain and italy will get off so lightly across the next few months from their current point