Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Nixonator]

OK. This is bad...

https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1247551346095644678?s=21

Checking the sources, the poster of the tweet is a doctor and former member of the World Health Organisation. He is quoting research by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). I wasn’t familiar with the IHME so I looked it up. It was formed in 2007, largely via a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Wikipedia gives its purpose as “accelerating global health progress through sound measurement and accountable science”. As such, it wouldn’t seem to have a political agenda.

I wasn’t immediately able to find the research to bear out the poster’s claim that the UK could be heading for the highest per-capita death rate from Covid-19. It’s probably in there. I shall look again when I don’t have an early shift the following morning. What I did find was a projection that suggests our peak demand is 10 days away and that we could have just shy of 3,000 deaths on April 17th. The projection admits to a sizeable margin of error so we can only hope it will not be so bad. The bed shortage numbers are quite eye popping too.

I would post more but, as I said, I’m off to bed. I may revisit this tomorrow afternoon but if some of you are better placed to interrogate the data than I am right now, please do so.

I’m genuinely very scared now.

It's rubbish. See Number of Deaths thread.

 

[The Wizard]

Regardless of whether input data and such is correct, these charts should not be made public it’s totally irresponsible to release death predictions to the public in my opinion, it is REAL people’s lives they are turning into meaningless numbers and I’ve seen dozens of people being really upset by these computer generated predictions.

In a situation so uncertain, it’s not right and these predictions have been wildly off already.

 

[Napper]

Spain still smashing the numbers. Is that what peak looks like ? In which case , I guess we are at peak now and it lasts weeks

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Spain still smashing the numbers. Is that what peak looks like ? In which case , I guess we are at peak now and it lasts weeks

Yesterdays figures for Spain, much like the UK's, are heavily weighed by the weekend and irregular reporting of mortality. It will be interesting to see if the number continues its recent trend and adjusts accordingly.

 

[The grove]

Does anyone think corona could have been spread through the government/officials so easily as they aren't sticking to the 2m social distancing rules themselves? This is from the press conference yesterday.

 

[Bakero]

Regardless of whether input data and such is correct, these charts should not be made public it’s totally irresponsible to release death predictions to the public in my opinion, it is REAL people’s lives they are turning into meaningless numbers and I’ve seen dozens of people being really upset by these computer generated predictions.

In a situation so uncertain, it’s not right and these predictions have been wildly off already.

How do you suggest they keep it secret? They're not doing it just for fun.

I guess the media don't need to splash it all over the front pages though.

 

[Pinkie Brown]

Oh Geez. Conspiracy theorists & extreme religious wingnuts can be relied upon to display their naivety and/or idiocy. Lopestri is a Tory MP. So responsible.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Oh Geez. Conspiracy theorists & extreme religious wingnuts can be relied upon to display their naivety and/or idiocy. Lopestri is a Tory MP. So responsible.

Silly man. Our church is doing brilliantly with online broadcasts on a Sunday from the minister's home, and smaller Zoom meetings during the week.

 

[Bakero]

Oh Geez. Conspiracy theorists & extreme religious wingnuts can be relied upon to display their naivety and/or idiocy. Lopestri is a Tory MP. So responsible.

View attachment 121908

Unbelievable.

 

[sydney]

View attachment 121907
Does anyone think corona could have been spread through the government/officials so easily as they aren't sticking to the 2m social distancing rules themselves? This is from the press conference yesterday.

not really no....but if you look at event 201 and listen to Gatses speeches he does drop a number of fops , one of the major ones being " we can control the population through vaccination programs" ...i'm buggered if i know whats going on but it isn't what it says on the box.

 

[Mellotron]

Spain still smashing the numbers. Is that what peak looks like ? In which case , I guess we are at peak now and it lasts weeks

I’m confused - worldometers saying that Spain reported 510 new deaths today - perhaps the others on top were from previous days and is the weekend catch up of reporting?

 

[WATFORD zero]

https://twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1247458186300456960?s=21

This is an interesting Twitter thread re: reporting of death numbers

These statistics are some of the most worrying I have seen lately.

If this is correct (and it seems to be based on the same ONS data that is used by the Government for the daily totals), then the current rate of increase in deaths seems to be significantly understated. This is obviously down to the delay in reporting deaths, and there could be many perfectly valid reasons for this, but if this understatement is correct, it is not good at all.





I'd appreciate if anyone can point out something I've misinterpreted, or whether these figures are incorrect.

 

[Bakero]

I’m confused - worldometers saying that Spain reported 510 new deaths today - perhaps the others on top were from previous days and is the weekend catch up of reporting?

757 according to El Pais today.

 

[Mellotron]

757 according to El Pais today.

I know - I’m suggesting that it may be 247 of those are from previous days, as part of weekend catch up, as we do in the UK?

I believe someone from PHE was saying UK weekend figures get added “by the middle of the following week”.

 

[Bakero]

I know - I’m suggesting that it may be 247 of those are from previous days, as part of weekend catch up, as we do in the UK?

I believe someone from PHE was saying UK weekend figures get added “by the middle of the following week”.

Ah, I see. A government spokesperson said today that there was a discrepancy in figures from the ministry of health and the judiciary "due to the strict definition of death by coronavirus" set by the government.

Could be related to that.

 

[RossyG]

Oh Geez. Conspiracy theorists & extreme religious wingnuts can be relied upon to display their naivety and/or idiocy. Lopestri is a Tory MP. So responsible.

He’s a divorced catholic so I wouldn’t put him down as being particularly religious. He’s playing games but I’m not sure what or why.

And here in Rustington we are doing just fine with the new vicar streaming services and the like from her front room. I’m hoping we can start gently lifting the lockdown by the very end of this month, but by Friday? No...

 

[Bakero]

The Spanish gov are forecasting that end of this lockdown period, 26th April, normal life will gradually start to return.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Reuters report.

An interesting read.

https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN21P1X8


There will be plenty for the Public Inquiry to explore.

 

[Hugo Rune]

These statistics are some of the most worrying I have seen lately.

If this is correct (and it seems to be based on the same ONS data that is used by the Government for the daily totals), then the current rate of increase in deaths seems to be significantly understated.

To be clear, ONS data has a two week lag and is based on death certificates of Covid-19+ corpses, wherever those people died.

The government’s daily figures are from the NHS/PHE and do not include ‘died at home’ but are also vulnerable to reporting lag which can be on the order of 3 or 4 days.

In essence, the ONS data is the accurate set but you’ve got to wait that two weeks for it.

And yes, very very worrying indeed and exactly what I was afraid of as a Libertarian PM delayed and dithered with the lockdown because the message was going to be so unpopular.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

These statistics are some of the most worrying I have seen lately.

If this is correct (and it seems to be based on the same ONS data that is used by the Government for the daily totals), then the current rate of increase in deaths seems to be significantly understated. This is obviously down to the delay in reporting deaths, and there could be many perfectly valid reasons for this, but if this understatement is correct, it is not good at all.

View attachment 121913

View attachment 121914

I'd appreciate if anyone can point out something I've misinterpreted, or whether these figures are incorrect.

Very bad news.

We'll be lucky to be out of this soon.