Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[pb21]

This is interesting:

The prime minister’s spokesman said “surveillance” of the population to determine the spread of coronavirus was ongoing, with 3,500 antibody tests carried out per week.

“This is a population surveillance programme which we have been carrying out since February,” said the spokesman.

“It is being done by Public Health England at their campus which is at Porton Down.

“We currently have capacity for 3,500 of these surveillance tests to be carried out this week which is enough for small-scale population sampling.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...08532a0e6675e1#block-5e872e568f08532a0e6675e1

 

[The Wizard]

680 new deaths. RIP

 

[Solid at the back]

Tragic. So desperately sad.

 

[Mellotron]

Latest Gov planning estimates UK peak (deaths or infections?) on 12th April. Aim is still for under 20,000, with 50,000 being posited as a "worst case scenario".

 

[Bakero]

Latest Gov planning estimates UK peak (deaths or infections?) on 12th April. Aim is still for under 20,000, with 50,000 being posited as a "worst case scenario".

12th of April seems ambitious.

 

[Mellotron]

12th of April seems ambitious.

Roughly in line with Italy and Spain who have gone before? We also locked down 4 days earlier than Italy. Peak of infections will likely be earlier than 12th April, peak deaths possibly later but the evidence we have to go on would suggest it'll be about right?

Italy peak day for severe infections was March 21st - 6,557.
Their peak for deaths looks likely to have been March 27th, 6 days later - 919.

If we are hoping for a flatter curve than theirs, then our peak shouldn't be more than a couple of weeks away...IF EVERYONE STAYS AT HOME!

 

[The Wizard]

Infections still at around the mid 4000 mark for the last 3 days, but difficult to tell much from this figure with 10000 tests being done really.

 

[A1X]

IF EVERYONE STAYS AT HOME!

A cold, wet Easter would be absolutely ideal at this point IMHO. That's the real danger on the horizon, especially if it's a nice weekend.

 

[nicko31]

Infections still at around the mid 4000 mark for the last 3 days, but difficult to tell much from this figure with 10000 tests being done really.

Think we need to take infections with a pinch of salt, its the death trend which is really worrying

 

[Mellotron]

Think we need to take infections with a pinch of salt, its the death trend which is really worrying

Severe infection rates help inform what the death rate will be in a week or so - there is correlation in Spain and Italy that backs this up.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Think we need to take infections with a pinch of salt, its the death trend which is really worrying

I don't think that is quite right. Tracking the infections, whether by mass monitoring, or as we are doing, is a very useful way of telling when the epidemic is going to peak and measuring whether there is an upward or downward trend. If we only test those who are sick enough to come to hospital, then it matters not that we aren't testing other sufferers who do not display such serious symptoms. If the number of infections lowers, then logically, the number of deaths will also (with lag) lower.

 

[Mellotron]

The government of Jersey has announced a plan to test every citizen for Covid-19 in a programme to be rolled out over the coming weeks.

The British crown dependency says it has ordered up to 150,000 antibody test kits which are due to arrive in batches. Known as serology tests, they measure the presence of antibodies in the blood which are known to be produced by those who have already contracted the virus.

As politely as possible - how the **** can Jersey be lightyears ahead of the UK on this? Seems a little greedy to keep 50,000 spares as well, which we could desperately do with on the mainland. Jersey's population is less than 100,000.

 

[Mellotron]

Think we need to take infections with a pinch of salt, its the death trend which is really worrying

Not necessarily true - Italy and Spain have both shown infection rates can help plot what the death rate is likely to be about a week in advance.

 

[Springal]

https://www.kentonline.co.uk/thanet/news/heartache-as-nurse-loses-coronavirus-battle-225077/

39 year old , mother of 3 passes away after contracting COVID-19. Very sad. RIP

 

[Wrong-Direction]

I recommend watching ITV Trump and the virus, words cannot describe how deluded that man is. How is it through history complete an utter ****wits get millions of followers!?

Sent from my SM-A600FN using Tapatalk

 

[Notters]

As politely as possible - how the **** can Jersey be lightyears ahead of the UK on this? Seems a little greedy to keep 50,000 spares as well, which we could desperately do with on the mainland. Jersey's population is less than 100,000.

££££££££££

 

[beorhthelm]

As politely as possible - how the **** can Jersey be lightyears ahead of the UK on this? Seems a little greedy to keep 50,000 spares as well, which we could desperately do with on the mainland. Jersey's population is less than 100,000.

we've (reportedly) orderd millions too, they are stuck in regulatory process.

 

[pb21]

we've (reportedly) orderd millions too, they are stuck in regulatory process.

Got to make sure they are sound and we don't do a Spain and buy a load of dud testing kits.

 

[Raleigh Chopper]

A cold, wet Easter would be absolutely ideal at this point IMHO. That's the real danger on the horizon, especially if it's a nice weekend.

All places that rent rooms to tourists told to close in Cornwall, any that are seen to be active like holiday cottages for example, there is an e mail address and the council will turf them out, close the property and tell the occupants to go home.
It's going to be interesting to see how many thickos actually come down to Devon and Cornwall (and other places) next weekend if the weather is good.

 

[Machiavelli]

I am grateful for the link. I watched the piece from Newsnight. As the canary fairly stated, he is entitled to his opinion, maybe he did want the NHS to be privatised, maybe not, he certainly wanted to change the way we pay for healthcare in the UK. This crisis may or may not change that. My family in Germany are a case in point regarding the wait times for treatment over there compared to here. They cannot believe how long seeing a consultant or receiving treatment can take. I think the professor is correct that we need to look at different ways of funding or at least to pay a LOT more in tax towards the NHS. I wouldn't disregard his views about a pandemic based upon his favoured business model though.

There are problems with a 'monolithic' structure such as the NHS, particularly given it's one of the (if not, the) largest employers in the world. But that is actually serving as its strength in the current situation. I'd be less concerned if the debate was solely between the NHS as currently configured, and the national insurance model adopted by Germany. But it's not, and the leading voices are calling for privatised healthcare.
They have that in the US, and check out the figures, they spend twice as much on healthcare as we do in the UK. Our spend is currently historically low because, while increasing spend, since 2010 the government have lowered this both vis-a-vis GDP (which is how healthcare spending is calculated) and demand (demand for healthcare increases because of an ageing population).