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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread



jabba

Well-known member
Jul 15, 2009
1,341
York
I fear for the US. Their press conferences are notable for the questioners being more forceful (and being blanked) than ours, and their top people cow-tailing to the President, and showering him with praise. The new phrase is "Trump Time", meaning more than ASAP. They seem to be heading for a war-footing mentality but their State system doesn't seem to allow them to take a national response.
 




Mtoto

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2003
1,858
There are problems with a 'monolithic' structure such as the NHS, particularly given it's one of the (if not, the) largest employers in the world. But that is actually serving as its strength in the current situation. I'd be less concerned if the debate was solely between the NHS as currently configured, and the national insurance model adopted by Germany. But it's not, and the leading voices are calling for privatised healthcare.
They have that in the US, and check out the figures, they spend twice as much on healthcare as we do in the UK. Our spend is currently historically low because, while increasing spend, since 2010 the government have lowered this both vis-a-vis GDP (which is how healthcare spending is calculated) and demand (demand for healthcare increases because of an ageing population).

Do you know to what extent, if any, the much higher spending in the US as a pct of GDP is down to the hugely inflated prices they pay for drugs which the NHS gets for a fraction of the cost?
 


GT49er

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 1, 2009
49,139
Gloucester
All places that rent rooms to tourists told to close in Cornwall, any that are seen to be active like holiday cottages for example, there is an e mail address and the council will turf them out, close the property and tell the occupants to go home.
It's going to be interesting to see how many thickos actually come down to Devon and Cornwall (and other places) next weekend if the weather is good.
Good for Cornwall. Elsewhere, is AirB&B still running, or has that been closed for the duration? Anybody know? I know many hotels have closed their doors, but is that of their own volition, or government edict?
 


Wrong-Direction

Well-known member
Mar 10, 2013
13,621
I fear for the US. Their press conferences are notable for the questioners being more forceful (and being blanked) than ours, and their top people cow-tailing to the President, and showering him with praise. The new phrase is "Trump Time", meaning more than ASAP. They seem to be heading for a war-footing mentality but their State system doesn't seem to allow them to take a national response.
Hopefully the virus wipes out 50% of Trump supporters, and the other 50% shoot each other.

Sent from my SM-A600FN using Tapatalk
 






Machiavelli

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2013
17,752
Fiveways
Do you know to what extent, if any, the much higher spending in the US as a pct of GDP is down to the hugely inflated prices they pay for drugs which the NHS gets for a fraction of the cost?

Absolutely no idea, but I'd imagine it's a factor. What I can tell you is that, despite the claim that the NHS is bureaucratic, so much more of the incoming money gets spent on healthcare, because there aren't the layers of invoicing and related costs involved.
I'm not claiming that the public sector is more efficient than the private sector (I can see no argument for the public sector running restaurants for instance), but what gets my goat is the claim that private good/efficient, public bad/inefficient which has been the dominant narrative for decades.
 


Weststander

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
69,206
Withdean area
Do you know to what extent, if any, the much higher spending in the US as a pct of GDP is down to the hugely inflated prices they pay for drugs which the NHS gets for a fraction of the cost?

Yes. Healthcare for the monied is hugely expensive when treatment’s required, base costs for providers include huge insurance premiums in an ambulance chasing culture built on lawyers.

Whilst tens of millions get shite healthcare elsewhere.
 


Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,467
Brighton
I fear for the US. Their press conferences are notable for the questioners being more forceful (and being blanked) than ours, and their top people cow-tailing to the President, and showering him with praise. The new phrase is "Trump Time", meaning more than ASAP. They seem to be heading for a war-footing mentality but their State system doesn't seem to allow them to take a national response.

Absolutely. I think as Europe starts to get over the epidemic, all eyes will turn to the States.
 






Blue3

Well-known member
Jan 27, 2014
5,831
Lancing
Extract from the new science magazine nothing earth shatteringly new but Interesting all the same I did have to check that Francois Balloux who is quoted in the article was a real person it appears he is professor of computational systems biology at University College London. He earned a master's degree and doctorate at the University of Lausanne, then completed postdoctoral research at the University of Edinburgh. According to Wikipedia anyway the article says.

COVID-19, the illness caused by coronavirus, proves deadly in around 3.5 percent of confirmed cases.

While this is not the same as its mortality rate, given many people may be infected but not realise it, it is significantly higher than seasonal flu, which typically kills 0.1 percent of patients.

"There is still considerable uncertainty around the fatality rates of COVID-19 and it likely varies depending on the quality of local healthcare," said Francois Balloux, Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London.

"That said, it is around two percent on average, which is about 20 times higher than for the seasonal flu lineages currently in circulation."

Serious cases

But the true danger of coronavirus is unlikely to be the death toll. Experts say health systems could easily become overwhelmed by the number of cases requiring hospitalisation – and, often ventilation to support breathing.

An analysis of 45,000 confirmed cases in China, where the epidemic originated, show that the vast majority of deaths were among the elderly (14.8 percent mortality among over 80s).

But another Chinese study showed that 41 percent of serious cases occurred among under 50s, compared with 27 percent among over 65s.

"It's true that if you're older you're at greater risk, but serious cases can also happen in relatively young people with no prior conditions," said French deputy health minister Jerome Salomon.
 


Blue3

Well-known member
Jan 27, 2014
5,831
Lancing
Absolutely. I think as Europe starts to get over the epidemic, all eyes will turn to the States.

I agree and then closely by the African continent where sadly health care can in places be almost nonexistent the death toll will be horrendous unless warmer conditions do as some predict massively reduce the virus spreading
 




Eeyore

Colonel Hee-Haw of Queen's Park
NSC Patron
Apr 5, 2014
25,859
Roughly in line with Italy and Spain who have gone before? We also locked down 4 days earlier than Italy. Peak of infections will likely be earlier than 12th April, peak deaths possibly later but the evidence we have to go on would suggest it'll be about right?

Italy peak day for severe infections was March 21st - 6,557.
Their peak for deaths looks likely to have been March 27th, 6 days later - 919.

If we are hoping for a flatter curve than theirs, then our peak shouldn't be more than a couple of weeks away...IF EVERYONE STAYS AT HOME!

My concern is that we have no exit strategy. If it's still out there then ending the lockdown will only bring it back. Theoretically, a lockdown can only end when infections end. And even then we may have to keep borders closed.
 




pastafarian

Well-known member
Sep 4, 2011
11,902
Sussex
Hopefully the virus wipes out 50% of Trump supporters, and the other 50% shoot each other.

Sent from my SM-A600FN using Tapatalk

Dear lord
They are just people with families just like you and me. You might not agree with who they support or have voted for but wishing that is beyond nasty.
Seriously .....have a look at yourself in the mirror.
 
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pastafarian

Well-known member
Sep 4, 2011
11,902
Sussex
Getting some really batcrap mental videos from my brother in law in Uganda. The police and security forces are taking the enforcement business to crackers levels of abuse.
 


Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,467
Brighton
My concern is that we have no exit strategy. If it's still out there then ending the lockdown will only bring it back. Theoretically, a lockdown can only end when infections end. And even then we may have to keep borders closed.

Same for every country, no?
 


vegster

Sanity Clause
May 5, 2008
28,267
I fear for the US. Their press conferences are notable for the questioners being more forceful (and being blanked) than ours, and their top people cow-tailing to the President, and showering him with praise. The new phrase is "Trump Time", meaning more than ASAP. They seem to be heading for a war-footing mentality but their State system doesn't seem to allow them to take a national response.

I posted this link on another thread this morning, the US response is changing now, expect more selfishness in the next few days as the US numbers crank up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52161995
 


The Clamp

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jan 11, 2016
26,144
West is BEST
Got an email form my Brother in China. Streets filling up again, talk of schools opening next week. Lock down pretty much over. He’s off for a picnic with wife and daughter. First proper time out if the apartment in three months.
 




Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,467
Brighton
Got an email form my Brother in China. Streets filling up again, talk of schools opening next week. Lock down pretty much over. He’s off for a picnic with wife and daughter. First proper time out if the apartment in three months.

Here’s hoping they really have beaten it.
 


beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
36,002
Dr Neil Ferguson on radio this morning (the Imperial college chap):
- expects the peak mortality is this week to 10 days then plateaus
- next phase will be focus on contact testing (didnt give time for that to begin, May was mentioned by interviewer).
- distancing rules relax gradually not back to normal for while longer.
- asked why he had spoke against mass testing at HoC Committee in Feb, said there was not test kits or capacity to do so at time.
- made point mass testing is not feasible, the intended action is contact testing.

noted elsewhere there are shortages of chemical reagents (despite some journo's claim there's loads), some countries able to do more testing because they manufacture and soak up supply. 6 weeks seems to be the target for lockdown, to constrain the spread then you can apply contact testing to the few cases that pop up.
 


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