Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Mtoto]

I said this a couple of weeks ago, but the sheer number of ‘celebrities’ who seem to be getting this suggests that it is already far more rife in the general population than we imagined. Hopefully that gives some hope of there being a degree of truth in the FT article the other day that suggested many of us now may be immune, which would surely allow us to return to some kind of normality sooner than we had hoped.

Fingers crossed, anyway.

It might also show how many people qualify as "celebrities" these days - if you count all professional athletes , tv, film, theatre, other media, bloggers, politicians, musicians, reality show contestants etc etc it must run to several thousand in the UK alone. There's 500 Premier League footballers for a start.
But it's natural to only notice the ones that test positive (or have symptoms without having been tested, many of whom will have something else) without thinking about the much larger number that haven't.

 

[Mellotron]

Have you got a link? Thanks.

Sorry to be annoying but what I was originally sent was a screenshot of their paper, which I haven’t been able to source.

However, if you google “imperial college 5700 UK deaths” the first 4/5 hits are all articles that link to this IC paper.

 

[beorhthelm]

Imperial College suggesting at current infection trajectory (similar to China’s) UK could top out at 5,700 deaths, with the peak being 260 deaths on 5th April. This isn’t a prediction, more a suggestion from what we know so far as to how it could pan out.

We certainly appear to be on a lower trajectory than Italy or Spain, which can only be good news.

concern is how they model beyond the initial wave and isolation period. if we go back to work, and return to normal with travel in May, does it stay away or come back (on or before St Swithun's day)?

 

[Mellotron]

concern is how they model beyond the initial wave and isolation period. if we go back to work, and return to normal with travel in May, does it stay away or come back (on or before St Swithun's day)?

There are so many future mitigating factors as to make it very difficult to predict further on, however I would say most possible future variable factors are good ones - i.e. higher level of "herd" immunity, a quicker readiness (than prior to any of this happening) for many to move back to remote working/social distancing for shorter periods if needed, the discovery and availability of drugs that could massively mitigate severity of virus, availability and number of respirators, etc, etc.

I assume that the "return to normal" will have to be very carefully controlled and paced, as it has been in China. I'm guessing it won't be suddenly one day "right everyone back to work!" but different things being slowly opened back up over a period of weeks and months, again this appears to be the case in China, who are just starting to reopen cinemas this week.

 

[doogie004]

Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Dicsussion Thread

As of 5pm last night UK death toll 766


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[AmexRuislip]

....

 

[The Clamp]

How’s everyone doing today?

 

[The Wizard]

Expected an increase but that’s a rather large jump

 

[Mellotron]

Expected an increase but that’s a rather large jump

Got to expect numbers to get a little scary for the next week or so, sadly. Just hope to see them start levelling off after that, along with infection rate.

 

[pasty]

As of 5pm last night UK death toll 766


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Lots of misinformation out there then.

BBC Breaking News: UK coronavirus deaths rise to 759

 

[loz]

The patients were aged between 29 and 98 years old and all but four - aged between 82 and 91 - had underlying health conditions. Their families have been informed.

Very very sad but I do wonder how many might have died anyway...I don't mean to be callous so sorry if it comes across that way.

 

[Mellotron]

From Guardian article:

Spain’s coronavirus death toll has overtaken China’s, climbing to 3,434, while a slowdown in the rate of new infections in Italy has raised hopes that the peak of its outbreak could be within sight.

After more than a week in lockdown in Spain, another 738 people died over 24 hours, but officials expressed hope that the daily rise in deaths might be stabilising. “If we are not already at the peak, we are very close,” said Fernando Simón, the head of Spain’s health emergency centre.

Among the country’s newest confirmed cases is the deputy prime minister, Carmen Calvo, who was taken to hospital on Sunday with a respiratory infection. The latest to die include two doctors who had been on the frontlines of the pandemic.

Italy remains the centre of the crisis with a total of 7,503 deaths – more than double the number documented in China. The death toll in Italy rose by 683 on Wednesday, a decline in the daily rate following a spike the day before. The rate of new infections slowed for a fourth consecutive day, rising by 3,491 compared with 3,612 on Tuesday.

“This is an extremely positive factor,” said Ranieri Guerra, from the World Health Organization, of the slowing infection rate. “In some regions we are close to the falling point of the curve and therefore probably the peak could be reached this week and then fall,” he told Radio Capital. “I believe that this week and the first days of the next will be crucial.”

Crumbs of comfort, I know.

 

[nicko31]

Lots of misinformation out there then.

BBC Breaking News: UK coronavirus deaths rise to 759

Almost 3000 new cases, only 6 days ago we were below 1000 per day

 

[nicko31]

Interesting the Swedes are going largely with Herd Immunity, will it work?

https://theconversation.com/sweden-...s-approach-heres-the-science-behind-it-134926

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Expected an increase but that’s a rather large jump

Your sit down watch television for a few hours, and your mind gets taken away from Corona Virus. You then see the new numbers come in and it's a massive wake up call once again. It will be like this for the next 10-12 days or longer. Remember we are on day 5 of lockdown.

 

[atomised]

Almost 3000 new cases, only 6 days ago we were below 1000 per day

Is it that more are being tested. I've not really been following those figures

 

[ManOfSussex]

How’s everyone doing today?

I'm good, thanks.

I needed to, so I did some shopping earlier and it was encouraging to see that social distancing has largely come into fashion, stockpiling is going out of it, I know that if all else fails M&S wont fail me and I even managed to get a single bottle of Carex anti-bacterial soap in Poundland.

I've also just come off the phone to work and I'll be picking up my equipment on Monday morning to WFH.

How are you doing today?

 

[Hugo Rune]

Got to expect numbers to get a little scary for the next week or so, sadly. Just hope to see them start levelling off after that, along with infection rate.

Italy had a week of 100-200 deaths per day then 6 days of 200-500 before death rates shot to 500+ per day (where they are at now).

Sadly, I’ve seen nothing to suggest that we won’t get a simile curve. Very difficult times ahead.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Italy had a week of 100-200 deaths per day then 6 days of 200-500 before death rates shot to 500+ per day (where they are at now).

Sadly, I’ve seen nothing to suggest that we won’t get a simile curve. Very difficult times ahead.

Yes, it all got very real today with the new numbers.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

181 !