This is the one that will make the big difference https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-19/uk-very-close-coronavirus-test-to-reveal-who-has-had-covid-19-with-no-symptoms/
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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GingerBeerMan
- Start date
This is the one that will make the big difference https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-19/uk-very-close-coronavirus-test-to-reveal-who-has-had-covid-19-with-no-symptoms/
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,026
neither testing nor high number of suitable bed are an explaination, Germany reports very low serious cases (2 currently) . the number of current serious cases is what puts pressure on health services, as crude as that sounds.
Coronavirus: Government using mobile location data to tackle outbreak
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ile-location-data-to-tackle-outbreak-11960050
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ile-location-data-to-tackle-outbreak-11960050
Mr Banana
Tedious chump
Most of the German cases are in younger people (85% under 60) and most are recent. Their number of deaths is likely to surge.
We quickly need to get the situation in a London under control. It’s hardly surprising, given the density of its population and transport systems, not to mention the sheer volume of foreign visitors, that it would become the epicentre in this country.
However, 12% of the UK’s population resides in London, and yet it has accounted for 36% of cases. Given it’s landmass is only 3% of the UK’s, that’s a worrying level of concentration. On the basis of assumed extrapolation that we are probably at a 10-20 x multiple in terms of actual cases (many asymptomstic), I can see the capital being in serious trouble within days.
The number of deaths probably will, the mortality rate won’t. It appears that it takes longer to recover from the illness than it does to die, meaning deaths are always some way ahead of recoveries. If we look only at known outcomes in the UK to date, we have a death rate of 61%.
That would be terrifying if it were an accurate reflection of mortality. But it isn’t, because the vast majority of cases are recent and haven’t had the opportunity yet to become free of the virus.
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
Does he know much behind the statistics? Like the ageing Italian population ...the general health of that demographic ..etc....perhaps you should remind them that we know people have died
Justice
Dangerous Idiot
Living in London I can confirm the streets are busy most places are still open bars restaurants etc. The mentality seems to be the virus is something that happens to other people despite being the hot bed of the country.
I thought my work load would dry up quite the opposite, with people forced to work from home they are getting all the jobs done they previously kept putting off.
Lyndhurst 14
Well-known member
- Jan 16, 2008
- 5,243
I'm amazed the pubs and restaurants are still open in London. The pubs and restaurants here - together with gyms, museums, music venues etc. - have been shut for some time - same as most other major cities in the US and Europe. Seems a very high risk strategy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says
Little bit of more perspective around Italy death rate currently sitting at 0.8 for healthy people . Note also the cases that are analysed are again diagnosed and real number more like 100k
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says
Little bit of more perspective around Italy death rate currently sitting at 0.8 for healthy people . Note also the cases that are analysed are again diagnosed and real number more like 100k
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says
Coronavirus / Covid-19
Our rate of infection and death count seem higher than Italy’s was at about the same stage.
It’s does seem like a populalist strategy designed to appease folk like the PM’s father. The government are very carefully telling us it’ll be our fault if the pandemic hits the Country hard because we are not following their self-isolation advice instead of just locking the Country down properly. They seem to believe that we, in this Country, just won’t be able to obey government curfews like we did in WW2.
It also seems like a terrifying strategy.
The early actions by our government (purposely leaving airports open to travellers from hot spots like Italy & Spain in order to spread the virus nationally to stifle an epicentre in UK and pursue herd immunity) could horrifyingly result in the largest short term death rate in the world but they’ll argue that the longer term benefits will outweigh the short term deaths I’d imagine, they could be right of course.
Our rate of infection and death count seem higher than Italy’s was at about the same stage.
It’s does seem like a populalist strategy designed to appease folk like the PM’s father. The government are very carefully telling us it’ll be our fault if the pandemic hits the Country hard because we are not following their self-isolation advice instead of just locking the Country down properly. They seem to believe that we, in this Country, just won’t be able to obey government curfews like we did in WW2.
It also seems like a terrifying strategy.
The early actions by our government (purposely leaving airports open to travellers from hot spots like Italy & Spain in order to spread the virus nationally to stifle an epicentre in UK and pursue herd immunity) could horrifyingly result in the largest short term death rate in the world but they’ll argue that the longer term benefits will outweigh the short term deaths I’d imagine, they could be right of course.
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Justice
Dangerous Idiot
Unfortunately Boris can’t make a decision possibly proving to be one of the worst PM’s in history. The public have made decisions for him ie. parents already keeping the children out of schools. No wonder the pound is getting smashed every time the fool speaks the market moves against him.
Has done the usual Tory move and backed businesses and home owners with two fingers up at the less fortunate. They never learn 2008 they propped the banks and not a penny to the people who needed some help. I’m amazed the nation voted Tory especially the north of England.
Coronavirus / Covid-19
I’m guessing that we weren’t properly prepared and that there was little or no strategy and planning in place.
We also seem to have an inward looking government who, rather than copy best practice from the Countries around the World who have much more expertise in planning for and fighting pandemics, have looked to our own scientists instead. SARS was the game changer in SE Asia, (China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong) their strategies on lockdown and testing seem very advanced, the models they are using seem to be much more up to date compared to ours. Perhaps, in Europe, it’s only Germany that noticed the advancement in this field in SE Asia and adjusted their plans and strategy.
This BBC article covers the government’s changing strategy, u-turns and new 20,000 death count target quite well:
“So what is the UK doing about coronavirus?
The government's strategy has been changing quickly over recent weeks.
It started off trying to contain the outbreaks by isolating people who tested positive and asking anyone who had close contact with them to self-isolate too.
In early March, ministers accepted that was no longer viable so instead introduced policies to delay and reduce the peak.
The idea was that by pushing the peak back to the summer it would allow the NHS to cope.
But new modelling released by Imperial College London then prompted a change in approach.
It warned the policy of a managed spread could still lead to more than 250,000 deaths with hospital intensive care units getting overwhelmed.
Ministers are now seeking to suppress the spread completely - hoping in the process to keep deaths below 20,000.”
The two scientists that flank our PM admitted they’d have done it differently yesterday if this happened again.
I’m guessing that we weren’t properly prepared and that there was little or no strategy and planning in place.
We also seem to have an inward looking government who, rather than copy best practice from the Countries around the World who have much more expertise in planning for and fighting pandemics, have looked to our own scientists instead. SARS was the game changer in SE Asia, (China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong) their strategies on lockdown and testing seem very advanced, the models they are using seem to be much more up to date compared to ours. Perhaps, in Europe, it’s only Germany that noticed the advancement in this field in SE Asia and adjusted their plans and strategy.
This BBC article covers the government’s changing strategy, u-turns and new 20,000 death count target quite well:
“So what is the UK doing about coronavirus?
The government's strategy has been changing quickly over recent weeks.
It started off trying to contain the outbreaks by isolating people who tested positive and asking anyone who had close contact with them to self-isolate too.
In early March, ministers accepted that was no longer viable so instead introduced policies to delay and reduce the peak.
The idea was that by pushing the peak back to the summer it would allow the NHS to cope.
But new modelling released by Imperial College London then prompted a change in approach.
It warned the policy of a managed spread could still lead to more than 250,000 deaths with hospital intensive care units getting overwhelmed.
Ministers are now seeking to suppress the spread completely - hoping in the process to keep deaths below 20,000.”
The two scientists that flank our PM admitted they’d have done it differently yesterday if this happened again.
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Rodney Thomas
Well-known member
I live in Catalunya and the health service here (which I have been extremely impressed with) faces total collapse within 2 weeks:
https://www.catalannews.com/news/it...onfinement-health-service-at-risk-of-collapse
https://www.catalannews.com/news/it...onfinement-health-service-at-risk-of-collapse
kevo
Well-known member
- Mar 8, 2008
- 9,810
He's a she and she can't believe we've not taken more action, that pubs and restaurants are still open, nowhere is being locked down. True what you say about the Italuan demographic but I think their health system was better equipped to cope than ours. There's nothing to suggest it won't be as bad or even worse here.
Garry Nelson's teacher
Well-known member
Watch again. 12 weeks was discussed behind closed doors and wasn't part of the press release.
Somebody from the press picked up on it immediately, asked the question, and Johnson looked left and right before he answered. They looked intently at their notes.
I've been stitched up enough times behind a lectern to recognise that look of panic
Spot on. BJ's rhetorical style is perfect for
a) working a crowd of devoted supporters (where he is brilliant)
b) the combative cauldron of Parliament (where he is great at working up his back-benchers into a lather)
He is lost when it comes to cool, analytical, detailed stuff. To fill the vacuum he resorts to his usual style of bluster, exhortations of how wonderful things are (eg the British public - perhaps he hasn't visited Tesco's lately.) He makes up figures (250,000 tests) and produces over-optimistic targets (12 weeks). He loves the three word slogan - turning the tide/ send it packing (get Brexit done). You could almost hear the two scientists squirm.
He reminded me of an under-prepared lecturer who thinks he's funny but who is playing to the wrong audience and thinks he can get away with it (I've been there). This is not a crowd of adoring Tory supporters but a room full of cynical journos. You could see him looking more and more uncomfortable - 'beam me up Scottie'.
This wouldn't matter if the stakes were not so high and the need for leadership (and credibility) so vital.
Meanwhile we had Spoon's finest on the radio this morning. Really, I thought we'd had quite enough of him, but he was defending Johnson's reluctance to close down pubs. Now there's a shock! He dribbled on about the need for balance (quite important for the average Spoons customer) and the observance of social distancing. My observation of Worthing's Spoons showed that few take a blind bit of notice. Indeed, the Spoons contribution to public health seems to the only of keeping its doors open to circulate fresh air.
I can't for the life of me see why the PM isn't closing the pubs. How can you tell people not to go there and in the same breath keep them open? It's either some sort of populist opportunism or a principle of freedom of the individual (a bit of both in my view). What I cannot see is how this is driven by 'the science'.
Rant over.
Mo Gosfield
Well-known member
- Aug 11, 2010
- 6,362
As well as certain members of the indigenous population who are not prepared to compromise their social lives, I also have a concern about whether certain ethnic groups in this country will be able to fully adapt to the practise of social distancing. By their very nature and background, the sub-continentals have much larger and extended family groupings. They live together in larger numbers and they shop locally and daily, cooking fresh as much as possible. They regularly attend places of worship, temples and mosques, sometimes multiple times a day. My evidence is that all these places of worship are still open and being attended. Some Sikh temples have stopped serving food but remain open to visitors. An Indian friend of mine was attending a funeral yesterday, with no restriction on numbers.
I assume other places of worship are all still open, churches, chapels, synagogues etc and I wonder about numbers attending. They are, after all, confined spaces and are as vulnerable to infection, as any other building.
I assume other places of worship are all still open, churches, chapels, synagogues etc and I wonder about numbers attending. They are, after all, confined spaces and are as vulnerable to infection, as any other building.
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
I don't know why but that almost seems to me like it needs to be on the good news thread. I suppose that is due to the idea that a disease is truly terrifying if it hits healthy people in high numbers.
These crowds at the shops are surely going to make the situation much much worse. They looked crazy this morning. Surely something has to be done?
Perhaps have it so surnames A-D can shop on a Monday, E-H on a Tuesday and so on? Seems a shame people can't just be sensible.
Perhaps have it so surnames A-D can shop on a Monday, E-H on a Tuesday and so on? Seems a shame people can't just be sensible.