Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Putting aside the 1 in 5 argument ....

Exactly what are the government (Matt hancock) asking the over 70's to do then? As I must be misinterpreting the news?

I know the self isolation is not in force yet but it will be 'soon'

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OK, that's better.

That is a good question. Hancock is busking. I listened to him earlier (Andrew Marr interview, I think it was). I would not take anything they are saying seriously at the moment because they don't know what they are talking about. Yet. That will change but it isn't clear when. He pretty much admitted that.

I am very confident that the government will not force people who are well to self isolate just because they are old, at least not withot massive contingency (see below). They will probably not even advise it. As I said, you can't stay indoors for a year (which is the swiftest it will be for a vaccine). There is no point staying in doors for 2 weeks (even assuming you can find someone to do your shopping for you, someone who can guarantee they won't pick up the virus and pass it on to you without realising). The epidemic will still be with us at the end of April, many weeks away (a mate of mine is a computer modeller and his prediction was repeated later by others). You can't expect the old who are well right now to self isolate till the end of May. Not without the government setting up an infrastructure so the poor buggers don't survive the virus only to die of starvation.

 

[Kosh]

That's a very interesting way of representing things - especially when you consider the death rate of early period plagues, which accounted for so many deaths (in % terms) in populated parts of the world... Especially those around AD150ish... They're part of our history and our future, but even looking at Spanish flu, this is (as it stands) not comparable. It's early days but given the rise in population I have my doubts this will be responsible for anywhere near the level of carnage the earlier plagues wrought. That said, any deaths are obviously tragic - sadly as history teaches us they are somewhat inevitable, with this kind of outbreak. I think things could have been managed better, closing down airports and unnecessary travel much earlier and supporting the airlines etc. through it... too little too late has left us wide open to draconian measures and some very tough times indeed.

That said, we have to remain together and do our best to restrict the spread. God willing things will peak in a just about manageable way, although it is very doubtful we'll ever forget 2020 or indeed 21...

 

[Guinness Boy]

Certainly was. Worried about my Croatia trip now at the end of April

You won't be going. Had Cyprus booked for a similar time and they are now saying no UK entries, reviewed on a 15 day rolling basis. Brother's GF is an air stewardess and is "at risk". Anywhere that doesn't have the virus will be shut to the UK and anywhere that does will be shut full stop.

 

[Bakero]

Must be tough going. Hopefully it has the desired effect and stems the flow.

Fingers crossed. The reality of being stuck in your house is rather depressing. Could be worse though- At least I've got a terrace with a sea view. Actually looking forward to working online tomorrow as it'll break the monotony. God knows how I'll be feeling after a few weeks of this.

 

[LamieRobertson]

OK, that's better.

That is a good question. Hancock is busking. I listened to him earlier (Andrew Marr interview, I think it was). I would not take anything they are saying seriously at the moment because they don't know what they are talking about. Yet. That will change but it isn't clear when. He pretty much admitted that.

I am very confident that the government will not force people who are well to self isolate just because they are old, at least not withot massive contingency (see below). They will probably not even advise it. As I said, you can't stay indoors for a year (which is the swiftest it will be for a vaccine). There is no point staying in doors for 2 weeks (even assuming you can find someone to do your shopping for you, someone who can guarantee they won't pick up the virus and pass it on to you without realising). The epidemic will still be with us at the end of April, many weeks away (a mate of mine is a computer modeller and his prediction was repeated later by others). You can't expect the old who are well right now to self isolate till the end of May. Not without the government setting up an infrastructure so the poor buggers don't survive the virus only to die of starvation.

The earlier quote of four months seems to have been replaced by “extended time” and then there is this

The Scottish government has set out its interpretation of the strategy, saying it had no plans to isolate the elderly, but would instead "ask them to reduce social contact".
Jeane Freeman, Mr Hancock's counterpart in Scotland, said: "We don't want people who are elderly to be stuck in their homes alone not contacting anyone, with their families not able to be in touch with them and to help them.
"What we're saying to them is, reduce your contact."

 

[atomised]

Fingers crossed. The reality of being stuck in your house is rather depressing. Could be worse though- At least I've got a terrace with a sea view. Actually looking forward to working online tomorrow as it'll break the monotony. God knows how I'll be feeling after a few weeks of this.

I'm sure that will be our reality here for a while before long. I chatted to my mum who lived through the second world war and she is pretty philosophical talking to peers though we've never lived through a situation like this and with so much taken for granted it's a real challenge.
I wonder if for some of the flu brigade it's a bit of denial and deep down they're scared

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The earlier quote of four months seems to have been replaced by “extended time” and then there is this

The Scottish government has set out its interpretation of the strategy, saying it had no plans to isolate the elderly, but would instead "ask them to reduce social contact".
Jeane Freeman, Mr Hancock's counterpart in Scotland, said: "We don't want people who are elderly to be stuck in their homes alone not contacting anyone, with their families not able to be in touch with them and to help them.
"What we're saying to them is, reduce your contact."

The more I see of this, the more my long held suspicion that we need to replace parliamentary democracy with some sort of benign dictatorship of the cerebrally well-endowed is growing from a musing to an emergent certainty.

All these political edicts have one eye on best guess and the other on what the electorate might think, later, come the next election.

The medical spokespeople, too, are clueless with, as I have noted elsewhere, Patrick Vallance as a typical example of someone who does not have his job because he is the smartest medic in the land,but because he is the most politically astute (in terms of transforming his modest abilities into a series of eye-catching and eye-wateringly well-paid jobs).

I'm going down the beach now with the family for some fresh air.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

presumpably you believe that other strategies will have no impact on the population?

No. But using the fact you need 70% people to be infected, with all the associated deaths including 250000 in seemingly previously healthy people, doesn’t strike me as a very responsible starting point.

 

[cloud]

I know the self isolation is not in force yet but it will be 'soon'

That seems to have been the strategy all along - stating what is likely to happen next, so people can mentally prepare for it, and start early if they are worried.

Rather than imposing something at short notice, which is likely to cause more disruption as everyone is taking the same action at the same time.

 

[Bakero]

I'm sure that will be our reality here for a while before long. I chatted to my mum who lived through the second world war and she is pretty philosophical talking to peers though we've never lived through a situation like this and with so much taken for granted it's a real challenge.
I wonder if for some of the flu brigade it's a bit of denial and deep down they're scared

Quite possibly. Though some of them are just thick/arrogant.

 

[Stat Brother]

For our American posters and those of us with an American slant.



The Week COVID-19 Changed Everything With Malcolm Gladwell

https://www.theringer.com/the-bill-...d-19-changed-everything-with-malcolm-gladwell

HBO and The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by best-selling author and podcaster Malcolm Gladwell to discuss worst-case coronavirus scenarios, why America waited too long to react and didn’t listen to experts soon enough, what people can do to keep things from getting worse, and how long our favorite distractions (sports, movies, etc.) might be on hold until life starts to feel safe again.

An interesting listen, from the personal through to global.
Unsurprisingly somewhat scathing about Trump.

 

[The_Viper]

"Let's stay in the house, have a nice cold pint, and wait for this all to blow over."

 

[Wrong-Direction]

https://youtu.be/aox7CeOdmOY

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[Triggaaar]

France now debating whether to adopt the UK model approach rather than outright containment...

Hugh Schofield
BBC News, Paris
Debate is raging in France about what is the better model for tackling Covid-19: the Chinese with their radical system of confinement for limiting the spread; or the UK with their “herd immunity” approach

But our government have stated that 'herd immunity' is not our approach.

 

[Wozza]

Still a large part of me that thinks this is a global government/media feeding frenzy, amplifying this thing out of all proportion. Tho I'm sure our resident twin doom-mongers [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] & [MENTION=189]Wozza[/MENTION] will soon slap me down and accuse me of trolling...

The thing with supposed Covid-19 'doom-mongering' (in my case: mainly correctly predicting the postponement of football matches and other events) is that reality soon overtakes predictions.

I mean, no-one on here last week was predicting over-70s might be told/advised to self-isolate for four months in the UK.

On a personal level, given all the unknowns and potential of this thing, I don't think there's any harm in preparing for worst-case scenarios - except, of course, if you're being selfish towards others (eg stockpiling).

That's better than being dismissive or under-prepared, in my opinion.

But, of course, people can make their own decisions. Again, ideally not f**king people over or endangering others.

 

[Ernest]

Pubs to close in Ireland from tonight

 

[Wozza]

https://twitter.com/ceribooth/status/1239174797063569408?s=20

[tweet]1239174797063569408[/tweet]

 

[Creaky]

I’m still struggling to see how isolating those over 70 is going to either protect them or the rest of the population.

IF everyone over 70, (approximately a sixth of the population), does isolate themselves and manage not to contract the virus then there will be no “safe” time to end that isolation unless a vaccine has been manufactured. Reports suggest that one won’t be available for at least twelve months!

The Coronavirus will still be at large in four, six, eight months time. Seventy or eighty percent of the general population may well no longer be at risk, having been infected and since recovered, but if suddenly there are an additional ten million plus older people “released” into that population then surely there will be another spike in the numbers infected and this time they will all be in the high risk group.

If the aim is not to overwhelm the health service then I don’t really see this strategy as working. Surely better to take measures to keep the rate of infection as low as possible across the whole population and not try to prevent certain sections of society from being infected.

 

[Bold Seagull]

But our government have stated that 'herd immunity' is not our approach.

Herd immunity is effectively taking place whatever your strategy because it is a natural thing. So it isn’t anyone’s approach but it will have an effect one way or another depending on the approach i.e. some approaches may mean immunity is reached further down the line that enables a quicker return to normality. If you go full Wuhan lock down, you face the situation of a month of severe restrictions, then what...only 50k of 11m are now immune and if you lift restrictions likely the epidemic will grow again.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

My strategy

No sir; it's the government's strategy.

....but as you know better......

As for trolling. Hardly. The stats as we know it suggest you have a 1 in 5 chance of living if you get it over 70. Sorry if this sounds insensitive.

1 in 5 chance of living ? You got that totally wrong. You are saying anyone that is 70 and over who get it has an 80% chance of dying ? Nonsense