Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Green Cross Code Man]

UK: 1 fully recovered in Brighton and 2 deaths.
Case mortality rate of 66.6%. No use to no ****.

Dunno the figures, but there are loads of recovered coronavirus cases in the UK, not just the Brighton one.

edit: As of yesterday 18 recovered cases in UK.

 

[Giraffe]

A calm, realistic take on the virus and the reaction to it;

Abdu Sharkawy - Doctor and infectious diseases specialist.


I'm a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I've been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria...there is little I haven't been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared.
I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil. I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.

What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don't have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know..." and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.
I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games...that could be kyboshed too. Can you even
imagine?
I'm scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession.

But mostly, I'm scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.
Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it. Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and "fight for yourself above all else" attitude could prove disastrous.

I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let's meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.
Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.
Our children will thank us for it.

Great post this. Worth a re-post.

 

[knocky1]

Great post this. Worth a re-post.

How is your Covid19 Tracker getting on?

 

[Deleted member 22389]

+64 today.

 

[beorhthelm]

I guess because resolution hasn't yet happened.

You don’t know the outcome; that’s why.

mortality rate is measure of death in the population, in relation to a condition thats the population with the infection. count the number with infection for the denominator, count the number dead for the numerator, have mortality rate. outcome is death or not death, everything in between is ignored or unknown.

or you can count only those hospitalied by infection (as denominator) to get a biased rate if you wish.

 

[Nobby]

Very well, thank you. Yourself?

So far....

I thought you were going out to shake everyone’s hand

 

[The Clamp]

So far....

I thought you were going out to shake everyone’s hand

It’s called a mobile phone for a reason ;-)

 

[Sorrel]

Part of the trouble with determining risk from the virus is that it seems to be quite slow to cause harm to people who get it.

With something like the flu people often have a a day or so of unknowingly infecting people before they feel terrible. For this disease it seems to be around 6 or 7 days. And then the effects can continue and increase for 2 to 8 more weeks, with the result that it is quite a slow event.

If the Italians put Chinese style restrictions in place (as they are starting to do) then, like China, things might start turning round in around 5 or 6 weeks there. If they don't, then it will get worse.

What it is like in Italy now will probably be what it is like in the UK, Germany and the Netherlands in around 3 or 4 weeks from now. By that point we will see what has happened in Italy and know what kind of restrictions will need to be put in place.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

mortality rate is measure of death in the population, in relation to a condition thats the population with the infection. count the number with infection for the denominator, count the number dead for the numerator, have mortality rate. outcome is death or not death, everything in between is ignored or unknown.

or you can count only those hospitalied by infection (as denominator) to get a biased rate if you wish.

I was referring to case fatality rate, not mortality rate....and there can be bias if the data is incomplete. I’m not suggesting you only count hospitalised cases, I’m stating you include only those for whom you know an outcome.

 

[Guinness Boy]

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[Icy Gull]

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They won’t be starving as they also have a shit load of pasta, they may die of boredom from eating such shit bland food though.

 

[Notters]

Just been to Morrisons. Plenty of loo roll, no pasta.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Just been to Morrisons. Plenty of loo roll, no pasta.

No loo roll in Tesco earlier in Eastbourne. May prove to be a problem for our family in a few days lol.

 

[The Clamp]

No loo roll in the supermarket I just went to. But plenty in my local convenience store.
I think we’ll get through this.
Panic buying bog roll! Heavens to Betsy, what a stupid country we have allowed ourselves to become.
If you get quarantined you can clean your arse with the shower. Just order some takeaway and get into a good box set.
The wallys really have taken over .

 

[ManOfSussex]

No toilet roll or soap and very little pasta in Morrisons in Hastings when I was in there an hour ago. Utter idiocy.

 

[beorhthelm]

I was referring to case fatality rate, not mortality rate....and there can be bias if the data is incomplete. I’m not suggesting you only count hospitalised cases, I’m stating you include only those for whom you know an outcome.

yes, we count the outcomes as the numerator.

 

[Gazwag]

No loo roll in Tesco earlier in Eastbourne. May prove to be a problem for our family in a few days lol.

Tesco Bexhill had a number of packs of loo roll and some pasta, very little though. Was noticeable though how many people were purchasing tinned goods such as soup, veg, baked beans etc.

 

[Solid at the back]

133 additional death in Italy today. Gobsmacked.
Lock the country down, NOW, before its too late

 

[clapham_gull]

I've got 4 supermarkets in walking distance, so often do all three.

Sainsburys has toilet paper back but oddly has ran out of flour. Well not all flour, there is ample BREAD FLOUR available and also loads of bread.

( and you can FREEZE cut bread )

Is everyone preparing to bake cakes ?



idiots

 

[bluenitsuj]

133 additional death in Italy today. Gobsmacked.
Lock the country down, NOW, before its too late

About time we stopped all flights to and from Italy also.