clapham_gull
Legacy Fan
- Aug 20, 2003
- 25,860
How rude.
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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GingerBeerMan
- Start date
How rude.
Might get 2 minutes of Seann Walsh talking about it on a “We Loved the 20’s” compilation show in a few years. Just after Rhona Cameron talking about the time Donald Trump executed the White House Staff live on a Hollyoaks Later :-0
I know. But I thought the point was about including cases in the denom for which you don’t know the outcome.
A chavvy reality star of the day and someone off The Voice screaming "and there was no BOGROLL. People were literally hording TOILET ROLL". *cut to embarrassed grin*
Nobby
Well-known member
- Sep 29, 2007
- 2,891
If the average man on the Clapham omnibus is over 60 with underlying health problems he might not remember it....
dingodan
New member
- Feb 16, 2011
- 10,080
Bird flu does not spread easily from person to person.
cheshunt seagull
Well-known member
- Jul 5, 2003
- 2,593
I agree that panic buying in the UK is insane but Italy presents a picture of how bad this could get and just dismissing it as media hysteria is slightly delusional. We need to get to the bottom of why it is so bad in Italy, Iran and China and then maybe we can rationally assess what the possibilities are and what the remedies should be. Stay calm, stay kind but be prepared for something that could be unprecedented in our lifetime and already is in some parts of the world.
Sorrel
Well-known member
The reason is that we aren't certain yet where the current virus would fit on the pandemic chart (if it were an influenza virus): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic_severity_index
The 2009 flu killed an estimated 500,000 people, but wasn't that serve in terms of a pandemic. The problem with this disease is that we don't yet know where it would fit on that scale.
Those who think it is not a problem believe that the number of reported cases of this outbreak is far exceeded by the number of unreported mild cases and therefore the severity index is low and there is nothing particularly to worry about. Those who are worrying are concerned that it will be higher up the scale than that and is more of a concern - this is what the numbers reported suggest (but are those numbers right?). It also may be more infectious than flu and therefore will affect more of the population.
We should have a better idea about its status in a few weeks, but the precautionary principle (or panicking, depending on your viewpoint) is being used by the public in order to prepare, in case its severity is more worrying.
- Aug 7, 2003
- 8,074
Why is coronavirus so bad in Italy?
In Italy, coronavirus spread undetected at first when one person who was infected returned in an asymptomatic phase - meaning they showed no symptoms but could still spread the virus.
Professor Massimo Galli, who specialises in infectious diseases at the University of Milan told RTE: "Italy should be a warning to everybody, everywhere.
"We have an epidemic because of one person who returned with an infection in an asymptomatic phase and it spread underground in the 'red zone’.”
The red zone refers to the Lombardy region in the north of Italy
In Italy, coronavirus spread undetected at first when one person who was infected returned in an asymptomatic phase - meaning they showed no symptoms but could still spread the virus.
Professor Massimo Galli, who specialises in infectious diseases at the University of Milan told RTE: "Italy should be a warning to everybody, everywhere.
"We have an epidemic because of one person who returned with an infection in an asymptomatic phase and it spread underground in the 'red zone’.”
The red zone refers to the Lombardy region in the north of Italy
dingodan
New member
- Feb 16, 2011
- 10,080
Unfortunately it might be that the only difference between us and Italy is time.
Aren't we going to be in that same boat, many times over? There must by now be a good number people walking around with the virus who are aystmptomatic. Is the received wisdom that we will get to the stage that Italy is currently at, sooner or later?
Disconcerting stuff.
I think Italians are more social than most European people, live a bit more intimate etc and I think they have the oldest (please correct me) population in Europe. This virus dont seem to good on older people so I suppose that could be a factor.
Solid at the back
Well-known member
Spoke to my sister who works on the infectious diseases unit at the Royal Sussex. She said at this minute currently, we only have capacity for 5 confirmed cases of C19. By that she means only 5 could be segregated from other patients, currently.
That is an absolute disgrace and a monument F up from the people who run the country.
Obviously they have contingency plans, but they will not be able to cope with many more cases, and nowhere near the amount Italy has. And the number of cases is only going in one direction.
I reckon we will be at around 2000 confirmed cases this time next week, although I imagine in reality we're up to 10x higher then this already. Which would explain why other countries are reporting UK exporting cases (7 to Vietnam today) We're also not doing anywhere near enough tests that we should, I think we're on around 23k tests. Italy on around 50k.
Govt have buried their head in the sand and are expecting this to just disappear, baffling.
That is an absolute disgrace and a monument F up from the people who run the country.
Obviously they have contingency plans, but they will not be able to cope with many more cases, and nowhere near the amount Italy has. And the number of cases is only going in one direction.
I reckon we will be at around 2000 confirmed cases this time next week, although I imagine in reality we're up to 10x higher then this already. Which would explain why other countries are reporting UK exporting cases (7 to Vietnam today) We're also not doing anywhere near enough tests that we should, I think we're on around 23k tests. Italy on around 50k.
Govt have buried their head in the sand and are expecting this to just disappear, baffling.
The tactic looks like to delay in order to spread out.
That is just my 'headline' on this :
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1235865328074153986?s=19
That is just my 'headline' on this :
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1235865328074153986?s=19
Solid at the back
Well-known member
Also this is why we should of shut borders 6 weeks ago:
https://twitter.com/federicogatti/status/1236676012982894594?s=19
Coronavirus / Covid-19
I believe that living in extended family units is commonplace in Italy. Large households with the older generation just waiting to be infected by all the comings and goings of younger generation carriers is going to yield high death rates sadly.
I believe that living in extended family units is commonplace in Italy. Large households with the older generation just waiting to be infected by all the comings and goings of younger generation carriers is going to yield high death rates sadly.
There seems to be hope (as opposed to expectation) that delaying the spread until Spring will see transmission levels fall as temperatures rise, as you typically find with traditional winter illnesses. However, isn't it already relatively warm in Iran, for instance, where the virus is already relatively widespread?
Forecast for 15 degrees tomorrow. Hardly summer temperatures.
It's currently mid-to-high twenties in the UAE right now, where the case count is rising. I don't know however whethere those cases have been transmitted within the country itself or contracted abroad; Dubai and Abu Dhabi are both massive travel hubs.