Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[studio150]

A 3rd UK death just being reported a man in his 60s but no other details yet.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Spoke to my sister who works on the infectious diseases unit at the Royal Sussex. She said at this minute currently, we only have capacity for 5 confirmed cases of C19. By that she means only 5 could be segregated from other patients, currently.
That is an absolute disgrace and a monument F up from the people who run the country.

Obviously they have contingency plans, but they will not be able to cope with many more cases, and nowhere near the amount Italy has. And the number of cases is only going in one direction.

I reckon we will be at around 2000 confirmed cases this time next week, although I imagine in reality we're up to 10x higher then this already. Which would explain why other countries are reporting UK exporting cases (7 to Vietnam today) We're also not doing anywhere near enough tests that we should, I think we're on around 23k tests. Italy on around 50k.

Govt have buried their head in the sand and are expecting this to just disappear, baffling.

I also spoke with a medic today and his view was that Italy, iran and China had one thing in common. They ignored the problem and refused to do anything about it. The problem Italy has is that they are very sociable, especially the old. They congregate in large groups on daily basis, they attend church for mass and also tend to live with extended family. That is a time bomb. We on the other hand are about as opposite as you can get.

How people live is a very big factor on how this will spread and ultimately how many will sadly die.

The issue isn’t so much how many people get it but who gets it. Many people will get it but not be aware apart from feeling a bit shit. If you are at risk then taking precautions such as not using public transport or going to large gatherings will make a massive difference. WASHING YOUR HANDS is the main weapon against this.

Shutting boarders is all well and good but we rely on imports for many of our basic foods and medicines. Where do you draw the line?

The World Health Organisation produces an almost daily situation report which list existing cases, new cases , new deaths, etc. It’s worth a read and does paint a slightly different picture to what the media puts out.

Just be thankful that this isn’t SARS or MERS because they are very bad news.

Apparently the more aggressive the flu the less easily it is spread.


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[dangull]

A 3rd UK death just being reported a man in his 60s but no other details yet.

He had underlying health problems like the other two apparently.

 

[dingodan]

I think Italians are more social than most European people, live a bit more intimate etc and I think they have the oldest (please correct me) population in Europe. This virus dont seem to good on older people so I suppose that could be a factor.

The age of the population would explain the high death rate, but it doesn't explain the high transmission rate, although the european greeting of kisses may also be a factor. This thing still seems to spread very easily by the look of things.

I'm hoping we aren't currently in the midst of the (relative) calm before the storm.

 

[dazzer6666]

Massive scaremongering and inflaming of the issue by the media - things like panic buying are self perpetuating (ANOTHER Briton dies.......positive cases JUMP in numbers.....Sainsbury’s SELLS OUT of arsewipe........etc)
Very, very low risk of fit & healthy people becoming seriously ill if they do catch it (statistics prove this)
Very small numbers of of those tested being confirmed positive
Even smaller numbers dying (statistically tiny number). Three in the UK so far, from 30,000 tested ?

Rather than stopping everyone doing everything, a more logical approach would be to advise the vulnerable, and those close to the vulnerable, to take reasonable precautions, and (as now) encourage everyone else to practice good hygiene etc.

 

[Poojah]

The issue isn’t so much how many people get it but who gets it. Many people will get it but not be aware apart from feeling a bit shit.

I see this line bandied about a lot, but is that genuinely the view expressed by the majority of medical experts? That's a genuine question by the way, purely because I haven't seen a direct quote from a medical professional to that effect.

I struggle to get my head around the idea of a virus which causes severe respiratory illness and ultimately death in some, but then barely a sniffle in others. It's an exciting lottery I guess.

 

[cloud]

The latest figures I can see are for Italy are.

Known deaths: 233
Known recoveries: 589
Total population with known outcome:822
Known current case mortality rate is 233/822 x 100 = 28.3%

For those quoting 4% I believe that figure includes people with no known outcome. They may die or they may survive.

I can understand why governments don't want to highlight the 28% figure.

Yes, but this only includes those people who have been tested and/or been ill enough to go to hospital. If you add in all those with moderate or no symptoms the % is much lower.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

The age of the population would explain the high death rate, but it doesn't explain the high transmission rate, although the european greeting of kisses may also be a factor. This thing still seems to spread very easily by the look of things.

I'm hoping we aren't currently in the midst of the (relative) calm before the storm.

Holy communion doesn’t help. It’s very un hygienic and popular with the old. Interestingly it’s in the Vatican now which is Rome. Most likely Brought in by a priest from the north.

The first case in the uk was in York. They’ve not had a case since.



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[Insel affe]

I struggle to get my head around the idea of a virus which causes severe respiratory illness and ultimately death in some, but then barely a sniffle in others. It's an exciting lottery I guess.

And knowing my friggin luck the only one I win.....

 

[cloud]

Holy communion doesn’t help. It’s very un hygienic and popular with the old.

Also bar snacks are very common, not just nuts and olives but canapes and mini sandwiches, free for anyone to pick and choose

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Coronavirus / Covid-19

Yes, but this only includes those people who have been tested and/or been ill enough to go to hospital. If you add in all those with moderate or no symptoms the % is much lower.

I think (obviously it’s only an opinion so not FACT) that they are significantly more undiagnosed cases here. It’s just that they are mild and fortunately not affecting the at risk group.

A 1000 healthy people getting it would most likely lead to zero fatalities. 1000 in the at risk group getting it would be very much worse.



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[afcb]

Well its just hit sunny sunny Bournemouth and Poole..

First cases in Dorset.

A member of our local gym has it. The oldies here will strip the shelves tomorrow.

 

[GingerBeerMan]

Because we live in a silly, triggered world where doom and disaster is mere moments away.

This time next year the average man on the Clapham omnibus will no more remember Coronavirus than they will who won Britain’s got talent in 2008.

So why are multiple governments plus the WHO saying we need to be prepared and why are millions of people in lockdown across the world? We didn't see this with bird flu. So I'll ask my question again, why is this virus so different?

 

[Mellotron]

My family actually need loo roll, having run out. Tried 3 places this evening, all sold out.

What a country of ****ing stupid, selfish morons. Oh well.

 

[GingerBeerMan]

The reason is that we aren't certain yet where the current virus would fit on the pandemic chart (if it were an influenza virus): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic_severity_index

The 2009 flu killed an estimated 500,000 people, but wasn't that serve in terms of a pandemic. The problem with this disease is that we don't yet know where it would fit on that scale.

Those who think it is not a problem believe that the number of reported cases of this outbreak is far exceeded by the number of unreported mild cases and therefore the severity index is low and there is nothing particularly to worry about. Those who are worrying are concerned that it will be higher up the scale than that and is more of a concern - this is what the numbers reported suggest (but are those numbers right?). It also may be more infectious than flu and therefore will affect more of the population.

We should have a better idea about its status in a few weeks, but the precautionary principle (or panicking, depending on your viewpoint) is being used by the public in order to prepare, in case its severity is more worrying.

Missed this reply, thanks for the informative and well reasoned answer

 

[Bry Nylon]

An informative piece on the 10 o'clock news a few moments ago.

To illustrate just how 'locked down' northern Italy is, the correspondent drove round northern Italy with his film crew.

No idea how this virus can be spreading

 

[Notters]

An informative piece on the 10 o'clock news a few moments ago.

To illustrate just how 'locked down' northern Italy is, the correspondent drove round northern Italy with his film crew.

No idea how this virus can be spreading

Didn't they only lock it down today?!

 

[Giraffe]

An informative piece on the 10 o'clock news a few moments ago.

To illustrate just how 'locked down' northern Italy is, the correspondent drove round northern Italy with his film crew.

No idea how this virus can be spreading

Yep I thought that. That said, they were in a car, and didn’t appear to get out.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

We need to get to the bottom of why it is so bad in Italy, Iran and China and then maybe we can rationally assess what the possibilities are and what the remedies should be. .

My personal theory is that these three places are quite similar in terms of climate and these conditions are perfect for the virus to stay active for a longer time outside of the human host. All three (northern Italy, northern Iran, Wuhan) at this time of year are dry, cold at night and cool to mild in the day, a classic Mediterranean winter climate. Places that are hot and humid, or cold and wet - or indeed very cold - are not seeing the same level of spread. Its quite obviously not spreading in tropical regions, like Thailand, Vietnam and Singapore that still have a low number of cases despite being there a long time. It also hasn't taken off in Canada, Russia or Scandanavia. In Europe, outside of Italy, it is spreading quickest in Spain and France, and there will be parts of the US that have very similar climates. Thats where I think it will be most difficult to stop

Just my own little hypothesis

 

[Poojah]

Didn't they only lock it down today?!

It will be interesting to see how the lockdown affects the spread. Conventional logic would suggest it stops, but if not, well that’s a pretty concerning state of affairs.