Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Guinness Boy]

You are going to keep digging aren’t you?

We really do know **** all of the big picture...imo, it’s all guesswork.

ARGH. Again THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT I WAS F***ING SAYING TO TRIG.

If we do not know the total number of cases we cannot possibly know the mortality rate. We are therefore preparing on a worst case scenario basis by applying margins of error at both ends to the known WHO figures. But every unreported case or un-sympotomatic case makes this LESS lethal.

 

[Bevendean Hillbilly]

ARGH. Again THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT I WAS F***ING SAYING TO TRIG.

If we do not know the total number of cases we cannot possibly know the mortality rate. We are therefore preparing on a worst case scenario basis by applying margins of error at both ends to the known WHO figures. But every unreported case or un-sympotomatic case makes this LESS lethal.

Would you want to swap places with me in Accident and Emergency? I doubt it.

The fact is that mortality rates are not the issue it’s the KNOWN fact that 14% of those infected require hospitalisation and another 5% need ITU. The NHS cannot cope with that as it means a potential extra million patients in the U.K. needing hospital beds.

There isn’t the capacity. That’s a fact.

Obviously true rates of infection are not known but I’m just working with the numbers of confirmed cases that the WHO is using and the Australian assessment published in February.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Urghhh, you post and post but really it is mostly such shite..... Thank you Bozza for the Ignore option.

Ah, FFS, this div is a mod! Can't Ignore...nooooooooo

Ignore this then....https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463

 

[peterward]

A very healthy 99% likely to live if you do actually catch it.

So far in the UK, even when it gets to 1000 confirmed infected that's only a 1/65000 chance of catching and a 1/99 chance of surviving if you do. It's all fine just now, it's just how big could it become?

 

[Guinness Boy]

Would you want to swap places with me in Accident and Emergency? I doubt it.

The fact is that mortality rates are not the issue it’s the KNOWN fact that 14% of those infected require hospitalisation and another 5% need ITU. The NHS cannot cope with that as it means a potential extra million patients in the U.K. needing hospital beds.

There isn’t the capacity. That’s a fact.

Obviously true rates of infection are not known but I’m just working with the numbers of confirmed cases that the WHO is using and the Australian assessment published in February.

I'm not sure why you're picking on my posts (though you've ignored one, which I will come back to). I broadly agree.

It looks like we're preparing for the worst case scenario - I said that in my post. It's likely the NHS won't cope. I'm not surprised, given who's been running it since 2010. You have my sympathy and admiration for your work but you're right, sticking a non-medically trained person into the mix would only make it worse.

But - to go back to the post I made that you did ignore - I've heard actual medically qualified people say that they think the virus has been "out there" in the UK for some time and the number of cases is MUCH higher. My wife's friend's immunologist and an ambulance paramedic who treated our daughter. As a medical person what's your take on that?

 

[Nobby]

What's the feeling in the medical world about how far reached the spread already is? I've heard an immunologist and ambulance paramedic both say they reckon loads of people here have already had it. What's that based on?

Just stop.

Stop

Trying to justify your original trite posts about it being a cold

 

[Nobby]

Shovel?

If it turns out there is indeed a milder strain out there that is highly infectious it will bare out everything I've been saying - lots of cases, vast numbers of them extremely mild.

Blah blah blah blah

 

[paulfuzz]

https://www.corbettreport.com/lies-...n=Feed:+CorbettReportRSS+(The+Corbett+Report)

 

[Bevendean Hillbilly]

I'm not sure why you're picking on my posts (though you've ignored one, which I will come back to). I broadly agree.

It looks like we're preparing for the worst case scenario - I said that in my post. It's likely the NHS won't cope. I'm not surprised, given who's been running it since 2010. You have my sympathy and admiration for your work but you're right, sticking a non-medically trained person into the mix would only make it worse.

But - to go back to the post I made that you did ignore - I've heard actual medically qualified people say that they think the virus has been "out there" in the UK for some time and the number of cases is MUCH higher. My wife's friend's immunologist and an ambulance paramedic who treated our daughter. As a medical person what's your take on that?

I agree that it’s likely already in the thousands if we’ve found 169 from the 16,000 test performed here to date. The issue is that a disease that takes 2 weeks to show symptoms is going to impact over the next month or two in terms of sickness requiring treatment.

I don’t think we are well prepared. I’m not.

 

[Bozza]

What wealth of information? My current post was based on the up to date FACTS that there are two different strains and that people seem to react very differently to the virus. That's not information that's been out there too long. But when "national and international health bodies" include the Chinese government, the Iranian government and WHO experts who have to justify a salary I will take them with a pinch of salt. .

This is going to be my last post here for a while as I've been spending too much time reading about, and posting about this thing, and I'm not enjoying the way this particular debate is going with someone I like and respect. With that, I'll try to explain where I'm coming from...

A week or so ago when we were exchanging about this and our respective outlooks seemed far apart. From what I could tell...

- This virus was very contagious
- This virus would not harm most people it came into contact with, however
- Some of those it did come into contact with would require specialist hospital treatment
- ...and a fair few of those would die
- The number of cases in the UK, and many other countries was not "good news" because the thing was only just getting started. It still very much is.
- The spread would be such that already-stretched health services could easily be overwhelmed, putting into the peril the lives of some that may otherwise survive, as well as those who are unfortunate enough to have other illnesses or calls on the health service at the same time.

My concern has never been about my own personal health as I'm not in a high-risk group as far as I'm aware.

My outlook on all those points remains the same, whether there is a single variant, two variants or a zillion variants.

A week or so ago, you seemed somewhat more bullish about things - "it's all a bit of a fuss over nothing" would be words I would use to summarise your take. That impression I had may have been wrong, but that's how it came across, and likely the reason why a few others have picked up on your posts this afternoon, which seem to express a different opinion.

For the avoidance of doubt, I've never advocated closing borders and shutting events down. I just don't know enough to know how effective these things may be, although around this time last week I did muse that Palace may be the last game at the Amex we'd be seeing live for a while. My current view is that we may well see the Arsenal game, but that might be it.

My belief is that steps are going to be taken to try and slow down the inevitable spread as much as possible in order to give the NHS the best chance possible of dealing with things, and smoothing off the tidal wave coming its way right now.

I'm not sure I have much more to say - we're going about our daily lives in a complete normal fashion and will continue to do so until we're told otherwise. The only change we've made is that I've put on hold booking a summer holiday - it all feels too uncertain. I feel guilty about this as airlines and hotels need support, and I hope I can feel confident enough to book something in the near future.

 

[Nobby]

This is going to be my last post here for a while as I've been spending too much time reading about, and posting about this thing, and I'm not enjoying the way this particular debate is going with someone I like and respect. With that, I'll try to explain where I'm coming from...

A week or so ago when we were exchanging about this and our respective outlooks seemed far apart. From what I could tell...

- This virus was very contagious
- This virus would not harm most people it came into contact with, however
- Some of those it did come into contact with would require specialist hospital treatment
- ...and a fair few of those would die
- The number of cases in the UK, and many other countries was not "good news" because the thing was only just getting started. It still very much is.
- The spread would be such that already-stretched health services could easily be overwhelmed, putting into the peril the lives of some that may otherwise survive, as well as those who are unfortunate enough to have other illnesses or calls on the health service at the same time.

My concern has never been about my own personal health as I'm not in a high-risk group as far as I'm aware.

My outlook on all those points remains the same, whether there is a single variant, two variants or a zillion variants.

A week or so ago, you seemed somewhat more bullish about things - "it's all a bit of a fuss over nothing" would be words I would use to summarise your take. That impression I had may have been wrong, but that's how it came across, and likely the reason why a few others have picked up on your posts this afternoon, which seem to express a different opinion.

For the avoidance of doubt, I've never advocated closing borders and shutting events down. I just don't know enough to know how effective these things may be, although around this time last week I did muse that Palace may be the last game at the Amex we'd be seeing live for a while. My current view is that we may well see the Arsenal game, but that might be it.

My belief is that steps are going to be taken to try and slow down the inevitable spread as much as possible in order to give the NHS the best chance possible of dealing with things, and smoothing off the tidal wave coming its way right now.

I'm not sure I have much more to say - we're going about our daily lives in a complete normal fashion and will continue to do so until we're told otherwise. The only change we've made is that I've put on hold booking a summer holiday - it all feels too uncertain. I feel guilty about this as airlines and hotels need support, and I hope I can feel confident enough to book something in the near future.

Absolutely THIS Bozza

 

[herecomesaregular]

Ignore this then....https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463

Apologies for my rudeness, previously. I don't disagree with that particularly opinion you're referencing re two . But your u-turn is amusing and erm you do go on a bit....

 

[Is it PotG?]

http://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-sports-bosses-and-broadcasters-summoned-to-discuss-contingency-plans-11951225

 

[Lyndhurst 14]

up to the individual states now to ignore him and take their own precautions.

That's pretty much what the mayor and governor of New York are doing - if they left it up to Pence it would be candle lit prayer vigils

 

[Guinness Boy]

This is going to be my last post here for a while as I've been spending too much time reading about, and posting about this thing, and I'm not enjoying the way this particular debate is going with someone I like and respect. With that, I'll try to explain where I'm coming from...

A week or so ago when we were exchanging about this and our respective outlooks seemed far apart. From what I could tell...

- This virus was very contagious
- This virus would not harm most people it came into contact with, however
- Some of those it did come into contact with would require specialist hospital treatment
- ...and a fair few of those would die
- The number of cases in the UK, and many other countries was not "good news" because the thing was only just getting started. It still very much is.
- The spread would be such that already-stretched health services could easily be overwhelmed, putting into the peril the lives of some that may otherwise survive, as well as those who are unfortunate enough to have other illnesses or calls on the health service at the same time.

My concern has never been about my own personal health as I'm not in a high-risk group as far as I'm aware.

My outlook on all those points remains the same, whether there is a single variant, two variants or a zillion variants.

A week or so ago, you seemed somewhat more bullish about things - "it's all a bit of a fuss over nothing" would be words I would use to summarise your take. That impression I had may have been wrong, but that's how it came across, and likely the reason why a few others have picked up on your posts this afternoon, which seem to express a different opinion.

For the avoidance of doubt, I've never advocated closing borders and shutting events down. I just don't know enough to know how effective these things may be, although around this time last week I did muse that Palace may be the last game at the Amex we'd be seeing live for a while. My current view is that we may well see the Arsenal game, but that might be it.

My belief is that steps are going to be taken to try and slow down the inevitable spread as much as possible in order to give the NHS the best chance possible of dealing with things, and smoothing off the tidal wave coming its way right now.

I'm not sure I have much more to say - we're going about our daily lives in a complete normal fashion and will continue to do so until we're told otherwise. The only change we've made is that I've put on hold booking a summer holiday - it all feels too uncertain. I feel guilty about this as airlines and hotels need support, and I hope I can feel confident enough to book something in the near future.

To be fair this will probably be my last post on here for a while too for similar reasons.

I'm still bullish. This is not going to wipe the planet out. I'm not worried about getting it and I'm fatalistic about what will happen if I do. Wothout reigniting another debate there are lots of other things that are statistically likely to kill you. I don't believe that cancelling big events and playing football behind closed doors will help at all in any way. If it's massively contagious that's shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted. if not, it's pointless.

BUT

There have been two side debates I've been in with specific people. One about the mortality rate of the disease. My position has been from the start, and still is, that you cannot tell what it is because I do not believe for a minute that the actual confirmed cases represent every single case out there. Very likely this is under reported. It was, from my POV anyway, an argument about statistics and projections, things I know a fair amount about.

Secondly about the danger posed to your average Joe or Joanna. This is a big debate but it's being conducted on a best guess basis. You don't know any better than me or Nobby or whoever and neither do I. We're just taking our attitudes to the disease and risk and projecting.

However, if that research, only published today, about the virus mutating is correct, then it does change things. I'd be foolish to ignore it and so would everyone else. But the evidence in that report is that it has mutated to be less serious. However, two strains would explain a lot, particularly about how different people deal with the virus and the attitudes of others to it. I reserve the right to change my mind without needing "a shovel". It will be interesting to revisit this thread in the summer.

None of this is discounting BH's stories from the frontline. I have total admiration for our NHS staff anyway. It's a key resource and criminally underfunded. I've defended it to death on General Election threads, for example. It is also only right that the NHS is preparing for the very worst case and taking the percentage of hospitalisations against the number of declared cases in completely different countries, because there's nothing else the planners can do. But, again, what will actually happen is known to none of us and I prefer to remain both optimistic and a touch fatalistic because that's how I live my life. What will be, will be and when your number's up, it's up and there's eff all you can do about it.

 

[Solid at the back]

The UK has exported a case to Nebraska. 36 year old woman who is "very seriously ill"

Id like to know where she has been travelling around the UK. Would suggest that what we already suspect is happening and that thousands are already infected. Would like to see a similar response to SK

 

[peterward]

This is going to be my last post here for a while as I've been spending too much time reading about, and posting about this thing, and I'm not enjoying the way this particular debate is going with someone I like and respect. With that, I'll try to explain where I'm coming from...

A week or so ago when we were exchanging about this and our respective outlooks seemed far apart. From what I could tell...

- This virus was very contagious
- This virus would not harm most people it came into contact with, however
- Some of those it did come into contact with would require specialist hospital treatment
- ...and a fair few of those would die
- The number of cases in the UK, and many other countries was not "good news" because the thing was only just getting started. It still very much is.
- The spread would be such that already-stretched health services could easily be overwhelmed, putting into the peril the lives of some that may otherwise survive, as well as those who are unfortunate enough to have other illnesses or calls on the health service at the same time.

My concern has never been about my own personal health as I'm not in a high-risk group as far as I'm aware.

My outlook on all those points remains the same, whether there is a single variant, two variants or a zillion variants.

A week or so ago, you seemed somewhat more bullish about things - "it's all a bit of a fuss over nothing" would be words I would use to summarise your take. That impression I had may have been wrong, but that's how it came across, and likely the reason why a few others have picked up on your posts this afternoon, which seem to express a different opinion.

For the avoidance of doubt, I've never advocated closing borders and shutting events down. I just don't know enough to know how effective these things may be, although around this time last week I did muse that Palace may be the last game at the Amex we'd be seeing live for a while. My current view is that we may well see the Arsenal game, but that might be it.

My belief is that steps are going to be taken to try and slow down the inevitable spread as much as possible in order to give the NHS the best chance possible of dealing with things, and smoothing off the tidal wave coming its way right now.

I'm not sure I have much more to say - we're going about our daily lives in a complete normal fashion and will continue to do so until we're told otherwise. The only change we've made is that I've put on hold booking a summer holiday - it all feels too uncertain. I feel guilty about this as airlines and hotels need support, and I hope I can feel confident enough to book something in the near future.

Be missed from this debate.

 

[peterward]

To be fair this will probably be my last post on here for a while too for similar reasons.

I'm still bullish. This is not going to wipe the planet out. I'm not worried about getting it and I'm fatalistic about what will happen if I do. Wothout reigniting another debate there are lots of other things that are statistically likely to kill you. I don't believe that cancelling big events and playing football behind closed doors will help at all in any way. If it's massively contagious that's shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted. if not, it's pointless.

BUT

There have been two side debates I've been in with specific people. One about the mortality rate of the disease. My position has been from the start, and still is, that you cannot tell what it is because I do not believe for a minute that the actual confirmed cases represent every single case out there. Very likely this is under reported. It was, from my POV anyway, an argument about statistics and projections, things I know a fair amount about.

Secondly about the danger posed to your average Joe or Joanna. This is a big debate but it's being conducted on a best guess basis. You don't know any better than me or Nobby or whoever and neither do I. We're just taking our attitudes to the disease and risk and projecting.

However, if that research, only published today, about the virus mutating is correct, then it does change things. I'd be foolish to ignore it and so would everyone else. But the evidence in that report is that it has mutated to be less serious. However, two strains would explain a lot, particularly about how different people deal with the virus and the attitudes of others to it. I reserve the right to change my mind without needing "a shovel". It will be interesting to revisit this thread in the summer.

None of this is discounting BH's stories from the frontline. I have total admiration for our NHS staff anyway. It's a key resource and criminally underfunded. I've defended it to death on General Election threads, for example. It is also only right that the NHS is preparing for the very worst case and taking the percentage of hospitalisations against the number of declared cases in completely different countries, because there's nothing else the planners can do. But, again, what will actually happen is known to none of us and I prefer to remain both optimistic and a touch fatalistic because that's how I live my life. What will be, will be and when your number's up, it's up and there's eff all you can do about it.

You'll be missed to. If you get the chance, watch this from tonight's C4 news. Enlightening, all the debates on this thread, put into clear perspective in 19 mins. it may just change your outlook?



Dr Richard Tachett leading US virologist, advised George Dubya and Clinton... And is tasked with finding vaccine and pandemic preparedness....... Seems to confer about the potential of what this actually may become, these are all his words/statements.... not mine........

"I've been working on epidemic preparedness for about 20 years and completely dispassionately without elevating the temperature or speaking hyperbolically.

'This is the most frightening disease I've ever encountered in my career, and that includes Ebola, it includes MERS and it includes SARS.

'I think the most concerning thing about this virus is the combination of infectiousness and the ability to cause severe disease or death.......We have seen very lethal viruses, we have seen certainly Ebola or Nipah or any of the other diseases that CEPI, the organisation that I run, works on.......

'These viruses have high mortality rates, I mean, Ebola's mortality rate in some places is greater than 80%. But they don't have the infectiousness that this virus has. They don't have the potential to explode and spread globally.'

We have not seen a virus like it since the 1918 Spanish flu which is estimated to have killed between 50 million and 100 million people......

I do think the virus has demonstrated that it has a lethality that is likely many fold higher than normal flu.'"

 

[Rodney Thomas]

Aren't you all basically saying the same thing? The only difference appears to be your risk appetite.