Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[BadFish]

I am going to be mightily pissed off if I come all the way from Oz only to find the doors locked!!!


My irk is clearly the most important thing here.

Sent from my Redmi Note 7 using Tapatalk

 

[soistes]

I just don’t see how it’s possible for 2 people in West Sussex to have it, 1 in Derbyshire, 2 in Devon, 1 in Dundee etc.

If it’s not very infectious it wouldn’t have reached all those places so quickly. If it is infectious, many, many more people must have it without realising.

Although science has always been my weak point so I could be talking rubbish.

Er, people travel. All of those people you mention could have caught it in the same place, or indeed from the same person

 

[Bozza]

only a small percentage of cases are being identified

Yes, I think that's certain, but there's no obvious way of quantifying it.

Also, for those that are identified, there is a lag between when they get it and when they will be identified as having it - something like 5-7 days for symptoms to emerge. So new cases today will have had it for a week already, give or take.

 

[Icy Gull]

Nice of the Americans to publish the results, via the media, of the results of the coronavirus tests on the pax on the cruise ship off San Francisco without letting the captain inform the passengers first.

Very poor form and a pretty unsympathetic thing to do imo, heartless even.

 

[jackanada]

The wave is coming and what we're doing as a country is gently walking up the beach.
Now even if we start running it's still going to hit it's just a question of it being a bit lower and a bit more spread out.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

But it’s such an even spread across the country. Every single region has a few cases, none more than 20 or so.

I understand people travel, but if this was a slow moving virus originating in one place or person you’d expect there to be an epicentre, not a handful of cases in every county. It looks to me more like the entire country is covered in it but only a small percentage of cases are being identified, hence the spread.

This is what I don't understand. A doctor was identified in Brighton over three weeks ago. His surgery was closed down for over two weeks, and contacts in Hangleton etc self isolated.

A student at Sussex University was also tested positive, yet Brighton isn't a hot spot, nor is there any information about numbers in Brighton as opposed to Sussex.

 

[atomised]

This is what I don't understand. A doctor was identified in Brighton over three weeks ago. His surgery was closed down for over two weeks, and contacts in Hangleton etc self isolated.

A student at Sussex University was also tested positive, yet Brighton isn't a hot spot, nor is there any information about numbers in Brighton as opposed to Sussex.

If that's the student at sussex the argus headlined with the other day it was someone associated with the university who hasnt been to campus since before they travelled. Whilst theres a link to the university the headline was very much clickbait and fairly irresponsible at that

 

[goldstone]

Wow in Italy now 107 deaths ..28 in the last 24 hours

Italy closing schools and public buildings until mid March

Perhaps they need [MENTION=144]goldstone[/MENTION] to go over there and tell them they are over reacting.

Haven't seen the figures, but most are probably old folks who would have died of flu anyway. And I'm not frigging [MENTION=144]goldstone[/MENTION]. Just goldstone will do nicely thank you.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Haven't seen the figures, but most are probably old folks who would have died of flu anyway. And I'm not frigging [MENTION=144]goldstone[/MENTION]. Just goldstone will do nicely thank you.

Italy has the second oldest population on the planet. Average age of mortality through Coronavirus is 81 currently over there.

 

[Your Mum]

I'm not frigging

your mum

nicely.

 

[Triggaaar]

Er, no.

Yeah it is.

My standpoint from the get-go has been to let it play out, develop a level of herd immunity, let it die naturally in the warmer weather and work on a vaccine for next year.

We can't develop a level of heard immunity this year, we need a vaccine. But that's not what people are criticising you for. The criticism is because you've said it's no worse than flu - just a cold. It isn't. You're mistaken.

One of the big contradictions on here has been a group of people who want the country locked down to prevent something unpreventable.

And most of us agree that locking the country down isn't the solution. Yes there are some people who are overly worried, thinking half the world will die etc. You are at the opposite end of the scale, assuming it's nothing at all.

My challenges with regards to the number of cases have always been to do with people's tendency to overstate the mortality rate. If it is highly infectious then it's almost certain not every case has been reported and therefore the lower end of the range that you told me was too low in itself would be accurate.

If the fatality rate is at the lower end of the scale that you posted (0.5%) then it's still 5 times more deadly than flu, and on top of that, we don't have a vaccine for it (whereas my whole family had a flu vaccine).

 

[Triggaaar]

I'm just saying that as a positive optimist with a healthy sense of my own mortality I focussed in on the less virulent strain. Something I said early on, funnlity enough - that viruses can mutate if they are too strong (citing black death)- has happened. I was shut down on that one - turns out I was right.

No, you weren't. The black death was around for years and wiped out over half of Europe's population. It was strong enough to kill most people who had it, but still not so strong that it couldn't spread. How on earth can you try and argue against that? No doubt more strains of the black death existed, because viruses always mutate. We're just a few months into this Coronavirus, and you're trying to argue that it has mutated because it was too strong. You're wrong GB, just plain wrong.

There are two strains, the second one being very mild. It's on this very thread. Again, you just haven't bothered reading everything before wading in.

There's not universal agreement on how many strains there are (the virus mutates all the time), or whether each one is different enough to be called a separate strain. The main two 'strains' that have been identified so far are believed to have started at about the same time, when the virus was first past to a human. So it's not the case that we had a strong strain, that was killing too many people, so the virus changed to become milder. Your claim that the 'second strain' is very mild also appears to be wrong. Can you post some evidence for that? Reports I'm reading state it's not clear whether one strain is more deadly than the other, so it certainly seems unlikely that one is 'very mild'.

 

[DumLum]

http://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-sports-bosses-and-broadcasters-summoned-to-discuss-contingency-plans-11951225

Will the clubs block all over 70 year olds season tickets working at the turnstiles? Or will there be cases of but I'm 69!!

 

[Hugo Rune]

The wave is coming and what we're doing as a country is gently walking up the beach.
Now even if we start running it's still going to hit it's just a question of it being a bit lower and a bit more spread out.

 

[Triggaaar]

But it’s such an even spread across the country. Every single region has a few cases, none more than 20 or so.

I understand people travel, but if this was a slow moving virus originating in one place or person you’d expect there to be an epicentre, not a handful of cases in every county. It looks to me more like the entire country is covered in it but only a small percentage of cases are being identified, hence the spread.

I think that's an interesting point, but sadly only anecdotally. What I mean by that, is that in other countries (China, Iran, Italy) there are epicentres, and we'll probably get some here soon, we just haven't had them yet. Going on reported cases only, it hasn't spread here much yet.

 

[Triggaaar]

I posted earlier on this thread and (unlike the majority on here)can speak from experience as I’m a nurse practitioner working in a very busy district general hospital A&E.

We see around 800 new patients per week with the vast majority being elderly with complex needs often respiratory. We are up against it already with 4 hour waits in the back of ambulances in the car park not uncommon. We have corridors full of sick old people, a full Resuscitation area almost 24/7 and a minors area rammed with people far too sick to be in there but nowhere else to put them. We also have a lot of “worried well”verdoses, nut cases and drunks/addicts.

The police are in the department all the time with those assaulted or under arrest and, frankly, worn out, overloaded and knackered staff.

We have been advised by our trust board to expect imminently a huge upswell in numbers as, whilst most infected with C19, there will be between 14 and 20% will need a bed and another 5% needing ITU beds. That means that our hospital will see hundreds more very ill people needing urgent care which we simply cannot offer.

The information we have from the senior management is laughable, we have a pod for C19 testing big enough for one patient and two clinicians. We also have 2...yes 2...hazmat suits to share among our doctors, nurses, HCAs and cleaning staff.

We are told to get on with it basically. But I know- and you should too- that if any of you get ill or need hospital care, even for a minor injury you will be waiting for a VERY long time to get it if the trajectory of this virus goes the way it’s predicted to.

Another point is that the Chinese reported that their frontline staff were decimated by Covid when it hit their hospitals with deaths among Young fit clinicians occurring far more frequently than they cared to report. The likely cause? Viral load. Massive exposure to the virus from multiple patients.

I have small kids. I am not worried for myself but them. I will be there tonight and whenever I’m needed because I love the NHS and believe that I’m obligated to help in this crisis.

But stop treating it like a joke or an inconvenience think of your doctors and nurses.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

No, you weren't. The black death was around for years and wiped out over half of Europe's population. It was strong enough to kill most people who had it, but still not so strong that it couldn't spread. How on earth can you try and argue against that? No doubt more strains of the black death existed, because viruses always mutate. We're just a few months into this Coronavirus, and you're trying to argue that it has mutated because it was too strong. You're wrong GB, just plain wrong.

There's not universal agreement on how many strains there are (the virus mutates all the time), or whether each one is different enough to be called a separate strain. The main two 'strains' that have been identified so far are believed to have started at about the same time, when the virus was first past to a human. So it's not the case that we had a strong strain, that was killing too many people, so the virus changed to become milder. Your claim that the 'second strain' is very mild also appears to be wrong. Can you post some evidence for that? Reports I'm reading state it's not clear whether one strain is more deadly than the other, so it certainly seems unlikely that one is 'very mild'.

Haven't got the reports to hand but there are several articles detailing exactly what [MENTION=616]Guinness Boy[/MENTION] said regarding the 2 strains. An argument was put forth that the more deadly version which was the prevalent strain in the early days in China, was diminishing due to the fact that it tended to kill more people and was therefore less likely to be transmitted. If that is indeed the case and it remains that way, then that would be good news.

 

[DumLum]

I've just seen a post on Facebook suggesting the uk govenment is causing panic over the Corana Virus to distract us from Brexit and climate change. Many people are agreeing.

 

[Triggaaar]

Haven't got the reports to hand but there are several articles detailing exactly what [MENTION=616]Guinness Boy[/MENTION] said regarding the 2 strains. An argument was put forth that the more deadly version which was the prevalent strain in the early days in China, was diminishing due to the fact that it tended to kill more people and was therefore less likely to be transmitted. If that is indeed the case and it remains that way, then that would be good news.

It would be great news, but I can't see any evidence of that. I've read up about the different 'strains'. I put that in inverted commas because it's not agreed that there are different strains, as the mutations examined so far are so similar that they are still considered by some experts to be the same 'strain'.

If a virus is too deadly to spread, it needs to kill off it's host before that host spreads it. That does not appear to be the case for those who die. They don't catch the virus, and drop dead. They catch it, and possibly start spreading it before even showing symptoms. They then get it and spread it further, before becoming ill enough to require a high level of care.

There's also the fact that the virus has spread to places like Italy and Iran where it's spread quite a lot, and also killed quite a number of people, which together suggests that a deadly strain is spreading.

And the black death: would you like to argue:
a) that it wasn't that deadly, so it spread a lot?
or
b) that is was deadly, so it didn't spread much?

Because it's pretty clear that it spread a lot, and was seriously deadly. It killed over half the people in Europe!