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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread



SeagullSarge

Active member
Jul 8, 2012
230
01D87548-969F-4AF2-A4A9-2B30707E59D5.jpeg

Current state of West Hove Sainso’s toilet roll aisle, apparently it was fully stocked this morning!
 




peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,267
It's absolutely this that I cannot get my head around.

If we're saying it's really contagious then how come there are so few cases worldwide? The disease has been known about since December and travel restrictions outside of China are minimal and were't imposed there till after Western New Year.

On the other hand, if there are a lot more cases than that and people are mistaking it or not reporting it, then isn't the mortality rate per case FAR lower?

It cannot be both highly contagious and highly fatal with the current stats. I'm a bit lost.

Restrictions started Jan 23.

So few cases worldwide?

Seasonal flus never leave us, been with us forever, it's unrestrained and will move from here to southern hemisphere in our summer, mutate and be back again in our winter. There's no controls on spread/transmission and whilst many are vaccinated, this far less mortal disease still kills many.

Covid-19 started from zero 3 months ago, spread unrestrained for 6 weeks in a localised population from a standing start, and has since seen the biggest social quarantine ever witnessed in Wuhan. Even in other areas of China the streets are empty. In most other developed nations, anyone who may have it is tested (not so flu), everyone who has it immediately quarantined (not so flu) every contact they've had is tested/self isolated. Everywhere they've been closed and decontaminated (not so flu), there's been extraordinary human efforts to try and stop it and many people staying indoors in china, yet it's still spreading and growing globally..

Once the containment/delay battle is lost and this thing assumes the same uncontained status as regular flu, then the reality of it will bite.

The control of spread is not like for like yet.
 
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dazzer6666

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Mar 27, 2013
55,513
Burgess Hill
It's absolutely this that I cannot get my head around.

If we're saying it's really contagious then how come there are so few cases worldwide? The disease has been known about since December and travel restrictions outside of China are minimal and were't imposed there till after Western New Year.

On the other hand, if there are a lot more cases than that and people are mistaking it or not reporting it, then isn't the mortality rate per case FAR lower?

It cannot be both highly contagious and highly fatal with the current stats. I'm a bit lost.

I reckon tens of thousands have had it and recovered without even knowing - wouldn't be overly surprised if I have had it myself. Of course, problem there is I might have infected others without knowing about it...................... and therein lies the rub. The measures required more to protect the vulnerable, not the majority aren't they ? Also, on that basis, the mortality rate is almost certainly overstated (it's a % of known cases) and perhaps enormously so.

Would be interesting to see the genuine numbers from places like Iran where there are rumoured to have been loads of deaths, and I dread to think what happens if this explodes in parts of Africa etc.
 


trueblue

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
10,948
Hove
96000 cases WORLDWIDE, and we're supposed to take it seriously that it 'could' be caught by up to 80% of the UK population? Seriously? I make that about 40 million people. Forgive me if I don't fill up a shopping trolley with bog rolls and pot noodles anytime soon

What it is now and what it could be in a month are very different. Exponential increases mean it can very quickly reach the point of being beyond control. The scientists can’t win really. If people follow their advice and it avoids a hugely damaging spread that kills tens or hundreds of thousands, people (a.k.a. idiots) will say that it was all just scaremongering.
 










Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
62,677
The Fatherland
It's absolutely this that I cannot get my head around.

If we're saying it's really contagious then how come there are so few cases worldwide? The disease has been known about since December and travel restrictions outside of China are minimal and were't imposed there till after Western New Year.

On the other hand, if there are a lot more cases than that and people are mistaking it or not reporting it, then isn't the mortality rate per case FAR lower?

It cannot be both highly contagious and highly fatal with the current stats. I'm a bit lost.

Are the cases relatively few? Looking at it another way, It’s a brand new virus which has spread to over 60 counties in a couple of months, that’s rapid when compared to other virus like SARS....I think.
 
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Ninja Elephant

Doctor Elephant
Feb 16, 2009
18,855
View attachment 120738

Current state of West Hove Sainso’s toilet roll aisle, apparently it was fully stocked this morning!

I genuinely don't get this - why are people panic buying toilet roll? Is it because people are worried about being stuck inside for 2 weeks and getting ready?

In terms of am I worried about coronavirus - the answer is absolutely ****ing not. Do I believe it's so bad to warrant 24/7 coverage? Absolutely ****ing not. Do I think 60% of the UK are going to get it? Absolutely ****ing not.
 


Thunder Bolt

Silly old bat
You are missing the point. You need to look at how contagious this virus is, this is the issue. The potential for infection is crazily high. There was a US case yesterday, or day before, were an extended family were infected due to sharing a car plus other close contact. About 6 people just-like-that. Unchecked, this virus will spread easily and quickly taking the vulnerable with it. And there are no antiviral compounds or vaccines to block Coronavirus yet (although I believe some have been identified) This really isn’t hyperbole.

Yet on 11th February the County Oak surgery (Hollingbury) was closed because one doctor had been skiing and was in contact with the virus. That's three weeks ago but Brighton isn't a hot spot for the virus.

This is nationally.

UPDATE on coronavirus (#COVID19) testing in the UK:

As of 9am 5 March 2020, a total of 18,083 people have been tested:

17,968 negative.
115 positive.
 






Nobby

Well-known member
Sep 29, 2007
2,892
Are you worried about getting Coronavirus ?

Bor*s spokesman

“However, it's now highly likely that the virus is going to spread in a significant way”.

“Officials will therefore accelerate work on preparations for the 'delay' phase of the government's plan, focusing on steps we can take to seek to delay the spread of the virus”

"This will include detailed work on the optimum time to introduce further measures."


Accelerate work
Detailed work
Optimum time

That’s it, sit on your hands
 








Nobby

Well-known member
Sep 29, 2007
2,892
I genuinely don't get this - why are people panic buying toilet roll? Is it because people are worried about being stuck inside for 2 weeks and getting ready?

In terms of am I worried about coronavirus - the answer is absolutely ****ing not. Do I believe it's so bad to warrant 24/7 coverage? Absolutely ****ing not. Do I think 60% of the UK are going to get it? Absolutely ****ing not.

It’s because everybody else is panic buying toilet roll

If someone had started panic buying Bovril, we’d have none left now [emoji2359]
 






Si Gull

Way Down South
Mar 18, 2008
4,671
On top of the world
Not worried for myself particularly but partner with health issues and older family members? Absolutely. The patient that has died most likely contracted it from the community. Not good. And my elderly, infirm mother lives in Reading.....
 
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Green Cross Code Man

Wunt be druv
Mar 30, 2006
20,721
Eastbourne
BBC News running a report on the delay phase from Brighton council's perspective. Also reported from the Amex, questioning whether matches would be played behind closed doors.
 


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