Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Guinness Boy]

I reckon tens of thousands have had it and recovered without even knowing - wouldn't be overly surprised if I have had it myself. Of course, problem there is I might have infected others without knowing about it...................... and therein lies the rub. The measures required more to protect the vulnerable, not the majority aren't they ? Also, on that basis, the mortality rate is almost certainly overstated (it's a % of known cases) and perhaps enormously so.

Would be interesting to see the genuine numbers from places like Iran where there are rumoured to have been loads of deaths, and I dread to think what happens if this explodes in parts of Africa etc.

See, I don't disagree with any of that.

We have a friend who has an immune compromised child and therefore he has an immunologist. If you believe what she said the immunologist said (via Facebook so pinch your salt now) it was along the lines that there have probably been shitloads of undiagnosed cases here but they remained so because they were either so mild they weren't noticed or mistaken for something else. My daughter had a weird flu - temperature, barking cough, no energy at all (and she's a nutter) back in October and it was diagnosed as flu. I'm not running this week because something has sapped all the energy out of me and given me headaches, but I've not had a temperature or cough so I've not reported it. I've worked from home all week, turned off the laptop when needed, slept more and am ready to resume running at the weekend. I just put it down to the normal run-down you get when marathon training, but who really knows? Technically I had one of the symptoms.

If the above is true then the world hasn't ended or even close to it, so I still don't get the panic.

 

[Nobby]

See, I don't disagree with any of that.

We have a friend who has an immune compromised child and therefore he has an immunologist. If you believe what she said the immunologist said (via Facebook so pinch your salt now) it was along the lines that there have probably been shitloads of undiagnosed cases here but they remained so because they were either so mild they weren't noticed or mistaken for something else. My daughter had a weird flu - temperature, barking cough, no energy at all (and she's a nutter) back in October and it was diagnosed as flu. I'm not running this week because something has sapped all the energy out of me and given me headaches, but I've not had a temperature or cough so I've not reported it. I've worked from home all week, turned off the laptop when needed, slept more and am ready to resume running at the weekend. I just put it down to the normal run-down you get when marathon training, but who really knows? Technically I had one of the symptoms.

If the above is true then the world hasn't ended or even close to it, so I still don't get the panic.

Erm October?

So you’re saying it didn’t start in Wuhan in December?

 

[Balders]

For me (and it's just my opinion!) is that broadly people are split into 2 camps - either looking at the figures as at now and putting those numbers into current context which suggests that it is being blown out of all proportion OR listening to what Experts in the field are saying and nailing their flag to that mast.

Personally I'm in the latter camp as I believe that there is a great deal of correlation between what's happening now compared to what the experts have been saying. One thing that struck a chord with me is Sir Patrick Vallance's comments last night (Chief Scientific Officer) that in these situations cases "double" exponentially and it soon gets out of control - look what is happening in Italy, Germany and France, that's correlating with the Experts view.

Those countries started with cases imported from Italy, much like ours.

One set of people will be right - don't forget lots of people have "self interest" in this and their view will be clouded....

One final thing - it appears the first thing to be rationed maybe bog roll - how bizarre!

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[Guinness Boy]

Erm October?

So you’re saying it didn’t start in Wuhan in December?

Can you read?

I said:

My daughter had a weird flu - temperature, barking cough, no energy at all (and she's a nutter) back in October and it was diagnosed as flu

So there is a seasonal flu doing the rounds with exactly the same symptoms.

Of course, there is also an outside chance the Chinese government have been lying through their teeth but I've dismissed that possibilty as utter nonsense.....

 

[Titanic]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51759602

Coronavirus: Older patient becomes first virus fatality in UK

A patient with underlying health conditions has become the first person in the UK to die after testing positive for coronavirus.

The Royal Berkshire NHS Trust said the person was an "older patient" who had been "in and out of hospital for non-coronavirus reasons".

The patient "was admitted and last night tested positive for coronavirus".

It comes as the number of UK people diagnosed with the virus reached 116, a rise of more than 30 since Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the prime minister's official spokesman said it was "highly likely the virus is going to spread in a significant way".

The patient, who was being treated at the Royal Berkshire Hospital in Reading, is believed to have caught the virus in the UK, said the country's chief medical adviser Professor Chris Whitty.

They are not thought to have been abroad recently, BBC health correspondent Nick Triggle added.

Officials are now trying to trace the people they were in contact with.

"I am very sorry to report a patient in England who tested positive for Covid-19 has sadly died," said Prof Whitty.

"I offer my sincere condolences to their family and friends and ask that their request for privacy is respected."

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said "his sympathies are with the victim and their family" but the UK was "still in the contain phase" - the first stage of the government's response to the outbreak.

He said scientists and medical staff are making preparations for the next phase - the "delay" phase" - and reiterated the advice to wash hands.

According to the latest government figures, as of 9:00 GMT on Thursday there were 115 cases across the UK. Another case was later confirmed in Wales.

The UK cases include 105 patients in England as well as six in Scotland, three in Northern Ireland and two in Wales.

Around 45 of the confirmed cases have been self-isolating at home, while 18 people have recovered.

There are currently 10 cases where the authorities do not know how the individual was infected, said our health correspondent. They have no links with foreign travel, he added.

Mr Johnson said the UK was still in the first phase of its four-part plan to tackle the virus outbreak, which is made up of: contain, delay, research and mitigate.

The government is still deciding what measures will be taken in the delay phase, but has previously said this could include banning big events, closing schools, encouraging people to work from home and discouraging the use of public transport.

Last week, a British man in Japan became the first UK citizen to die from the virus after being infected on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

My point is purely that it’s not actually a bad thing for the planet if we have a bit of a cull. *shrug*


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I am all for culling the vermin, but this disease won't separate the good from the bad.

 

[Bevendean Hillbilly]

The real issue here is that, whilst for the vast majority, this is going to be a mild illness the Chinese stats are that 14% of those infected require a Hospital bed and another 5% need ITU. That translates to a potential extra million or so Hospital episodes over and above what we are seeing currently.

I work in A&E and expect it to turn into a cluster**** for the NHS.

 

[peterward]

Nota lotta pasta

(Tesco Durrington)

You and the Mrs got 5 trollies worth off camera?

Or take the one remaining bottom shelf fettuccine for £1

 

[Albion Dan]

At the end of the day only 80k people have it in China a country of 1.3bn with a mortality rate of 2% and it’s been there 2 months now. To me that suggests everyone is massively over reacting. There was a guy who lives in Milan on the radio today saying after everyone lost their s##t a couple of weeks back when cases began to rise things are pretty much back to normal but with much better hygiene precautions standard. Expect the same here soon.

 

[Driver8]

China has virtually shut down in a way that the UK never could because of the attitude of people such as some of the posters on this thread.

 

[Bozza]

At the end of the day only 80k people have it in China a country of 1.3bn with a mortality rate of 2% and it’s been there 2 months now. To me that suggests everyone is massively over reacting. There was a guy who lives in Milan on the radio today saying after everyone lost their s##t a couple of weeks back when cases began to rise things are pretty much back to normal but with much better hygiene precautions standard. Expect the same here soon.

Not sure where you're getting 2% from...

China: 3,013 deaths out of 80,430 cases. That's 3,7%. And a further 5,952 cases are still deemed serious or critical.
Worldwide: 3,354 deaths from 97,971 cases. That's the same 3.4% that the WHO are currently stating to be the mortality rate.

I hope your bullish tone, which is a stark contrast to every UK health expert out there, turns out to be accurate.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Not sure where you're getting 2% from...

China: 3,013 deaths out of 80,430 cases. That's 3,7%. And a further 5,952 cases are still deemed serious or critical.
Worldwide: 3,354 deaths from 97,971 cases. That's the same 3.4% that the WHO are currently stating to be the mortality rate.

I hope your bullish tone, which is a stark contrast to every UK health expert out there, turns out to be accurate.

It's 3.4% because that's how the WHO gets the statistic.

So (again) the questions are:

- is every case being reported, tested and diagnosed?
- are there deaths in undiagnosed people that go unnoticed or is the primary cause of death in someone with covid-19 actually something else?

If the answer to question 1 is "no" or question 2 "yes" apply a margin of error. As the BBC did.

 

[Driver8]

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news...navirus-are-you-sharing-online-20200305194122

 

[Petunia]

Nota lotta pasta

(Tesco Durrington)

I saw a chap argue at the checkout when the cashier refused to let him have 150 cartons of long-life UHT milk!

Both the toilet roll and pasta shelves were totally empty.

Fortunately there was plenty of wine and chocolate so I’m OK

 

[Bozza]

It's 3.4% because that's how the WHO gets the statistic.

So (again) the questions are:

- is every case being reported, tested and diagnosed?
- are there deaths in undiagnosed people that go unnoticed or is the primary cause of death in someone with covid-19 actually something else?

If the answer to question 1 is "no" or question 2 "yes" apply a margin of error. As the BBC did.

Yep, and I'm not disputing any of that.

I was merely responding to the stated 2% rate in China which doesn't seem to be anyone else's statistic at all.

 

[Albion Dan]

Not sure where you're getting 2% from...

China: 3,013 deaths out of 80,430 cases. That's 3,7%. And a further 5,952 cases are still deemed serious or critical.
Worldwide: 3,354 deaths from 97,971 cases. That's the same 3.4% that the WHO are currently stating to be the mortality rate.

I hope your bullish tone, which is a stark contrast to every UK health expert out there, turns out to be accurate.

My bad the % rate has risen slightly since I last checked. However the reality is thousands of people with Coronovirus haven’t even likely been registered because their symptoms have been so mild so is highly likely a far lower true % rate. Also the vast majority of mortality is in the over 80s.

I think you are also massively over exaggerating saying every health expert is the opposite of bullish. Based on what? The weekly briefings we are getting at work suggest anything but that (they are pragmatic)but that doesn’t work for the media machine.

I’m not underplaying the issue. The number of people who get this Is highly likely to run beyond 100k+. My point is that the panic (media induced) meltdown reaction is pretty silly and ultimately will achieve nothing. As I said, life in countries that have far higher numbers than the UK seem to have settled back to a level of reason as this isn’t going anywhere and life has to go on.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Yep, and I'm not disputing any of that.

I was merely responding to the stated 2% rate in China which doesn't seem to be anyone else's statistic at all.

Also agreed

 

[Albion Dan]

I can also report that I’ve just been to the local co op and there is plenty of toilet roll. I didn’t check the pasta.

 

[The Antikythera Mechanism]

Top tip - Use both sides of toilet paper to wipe - 50% saving on bum fodder.

 

[Albion Dan]

Are you worried about getting Coronavirus ?

I was merely responding to the stated 2% rate in China which doesn't seem to be anyone else's statistic at all.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-51674743

I knew I’d got the 2% number from an official source. Basically it’s our Governments estimation and was quoted by Matt Hancock just 2 days ago.