Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Triggaaar]

But you said

"I can't see anything suggesting it's as low as 0.5%.

There probably aren't fewer that 100 cases in the UK."

If there are more than 100 cases in the UK and the only Brit to die was on a cruise ship in Japan then the UK death rate is lower than 0.5%.

No, you're not understanding how it works. You've got it wrong on a few levels:

1) The number of reported cases in the UK is 87 or so at the moment. It seems obvious that over 100 people have it, as some will not have had symptoms or been tested yet. But you're trying to count those who haven't even had symptoms yet, as people who will definitely survive the virus. That's ridiculous.
2) We weren't talking about UK death rate, we were talking about worldwide death rate. I don't think you specified UK only.
3) The numbers in the UK are currently too low to be considered a proper sample size.

You can't say that 1 person in Wales had it, they didn't die, therefore the death rate in Wales will remain at zero.

Still. as pointed out a number of times on this thread, the numbers I got were from a BBC factual special on covid-19 and applied a statistical margin of error to the WHO data at that time. So, you're not arguing with me, you're arguing with the actual advice that's going out from the national broadcaster.

I asked where you got the figures. You're saying the BBC. That doesn't mean I'm arguing with the BBC. The BBC didn't write that we can use the UK cases to predict a future death rate.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

It astounds me that the government want to close Parliament down for five months but not close schools.

Maybe they have an ulterior motive?

 

[Guinness Boy]

No, you're not understanding how it works. You've got it wrong on a few levels:

1) The number of reported cases in the UK is 87 or so at the moment. It seems obvious that over 100 people have it, as some will not have had symptoms or been tested yet. But you're trying to count those who haven't even had symptoms yet, as people who will definitely survive the virus. That's ridiculous.
2) We weren't talking about UK death rate, we were talking about worldwide death rate. I don't think you specified UK only.
3) The numbers in the UK are currently too low to be considered a proper sample size.

You can't say that 1 person in Wales had it, they didn't die, therefore the death rate in Wales will remain at zero.

I asked where you got the figures. You're saying the BBC. That doesn't mean I'm arguing with the BBC. The BBC didn't write that we can use the UK cases to predict a future death rate.

You said "there probably aren't fewer than 100 cases in the UK". You didn't say by how many or why. That could easily be interpreted as being that there have been many more cases than 100, providing a decent sample size, but they have not been reported due to the person having mild or non-existent symptoms (like any virus you can be a carrier without getting ill). You need to be a bit more specific if you're then going to deconstruct every comma and space in replies, as per

And, since the UK health system will be dealing with cases here, I think it's best if we think of survival outcomes in terms of UK mortality rates. It's exactly the same argument you used against counting global traffic accidents.

 

[portlock seagull]

It astounds me that the government want to close Parliament down for five months but not close schools.

Maybe they have an ulterior motive?

See if you even notice it’s shut!! And with that witty remark as my legacy, I’m off as I need a break. Good luck TB and everyone out there. Stay safe!

 

[Bozza]

An interesting insight from Chris Whitty into the modelling being used this morning...

- 50% of UK cases forecast to happen within a three-week period
- 95% of UK cases forecast to happen within a nine-week period

That would be one hell of a spike.

 

[Stat Brother]

 

[SIMMO SAYS]

I agree that many 86-year-olds won't be shitting it, but not because they're not snowflakes, but because they're already lived their life and they don't expect to live for many more years anyway.

OK Trigg I'll tell her that

 

[Guinness Boy]

An interesting insight from Chris Whitty into the modelling being used this morning...

- 50% of UK cases forecast to happen within a three-week period
- 95% of UK cases forecast to happen within a nine-week period

That would be one hell of a spike.

If the virus receeds in warmer, sunnnier weather like the common cold then it makes perfect sense. You're looking at a pick up due to inability to contain any more followed by decline due to isolation, changes in lifestyle and spring coming along.

 

[Wrong-Direction]

Best mate is getting married in Malta middle of May, everything's booked, hoping it doesn't hit them ffs

Sent from my SM-A600FN using Tapatalk

 

[Triggaaar]

You said "there probably aren't fewer than 100 cases in the UK".

Yes and I stand by that.

You didn't say by how many or why.

Well I have said why - because some people will have only just got the virus, and either won't yet have experienced symptoms or won't yet have been tested and had results back. The numbers that are reported in any country tend to lag behind the actual numbers by a week or two. As for how many, I don't know.

That could easily be interpreted as being that there have been many more cases than 100, providing a decent sample size, but they have not been reported due to the person having mild or non-existent symptoms

No it's not a decent sample size. And even if it was, you don't do the maths to come up with a fatality rate until after the people have recovered/died from the virus.

You need to be a bit more specific if you're then going to deconstruct every comma and space in replies, as per

No I don't. I said there are probably more than 100 cases. I don't have to say exactly how many there are. You're being weird, presumably just to try and defend your argument.

And, since the UK health system will be dealing with cases here, I think it's best if we think of survival outcomes in terms of UK mortality rates.

And that's fine, we can do that, but that's not what we had said.

It's exactly the same argument you used against counting global traffic accidents.

While I agree that ideally we want UK data, the fact is we don't yet have anything like enough to go on.

 

[Triggaaar]

OK Trigg I'll tell her that

You don't need to, she doesn't appear to be worried anyway.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Yes and I stand by that.
Well I have said why - because some people will have only just got the virus, and either won't yet have experienced symptoms or won't yet have been tested and had results back. The numbers that are reported in any country tend to lag behind the actual numbers by a week or two. As for how many, I don't know.

No it's not a decent sample size. And even if it was, you don't do the maths to come up with a fatality rate until after the people have recovered/died from the virus.

No I don't. I said there are probably more than 100 cases. I don't have to say exactly how many there are. You're being weird, presumably just to try and defend your argument.

And that's fine, we can do that, but that's not what we had said.

While I agree that ideally we want UK data, the fact is we don't yet have anything like enough to go on.

Here we go again. Line by line, word by word.

One thing is for certain, you're not going to make anyone safer by spending all day arguing on the internet. Have a good day.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Fatality rates.

WHO says 3.4


Mainland China 3.7
Hubei 4.3
https://covid19info.live/

Deaths v cured rate
6% v 94%
This removes the time element from the data
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This guys pretty good.
https://www.youtube.com/user/ChrisMartensondotcom

https://www.youtube.com/user/ChrisMartensondotcom

Why not just go to the WHO Website


https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0304-sitrep-44-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=783b4c9d_2

This is the latest status report from WHO. Anything else is conjecture ...


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Fignon's Ponytail]

Popped into Asda last night for a bit of shopping....& noticed the completely empty rows of hand gel shelves (not that we needed any anyway)
Not been getting too worried about it all tbh, but the guy standing in the middle of an aisle coughing his guts up - and not covering his mouth - just as we walked past, did make me think a little....

 

[A1X]

An interesting insight from Chris Whitty into the modelling being used this morning...

- 50% of UK cases forecast to happen within a three-week period
- 95% of UK cases forecast to happen within a nine-week period

That would be one hell of a spike.

Is that "from now" or "from a certain future point", out of interest?

 

[Triggaaar]

I'm going to have to hope I get this sooner rather than later, I'm 60 in August and if I don't hurry up my chance of dying more than doubles.

Not only that, but if you get it now, there'll be a hospital bed ready and waiting for you. If you get it in August, you're on your own.

 

[Bozza]

Is that "from now" or "from a certain future point", out of interest?

I think I had previously read that it was forecast that the peak here would take 2-3 months to reach, but I can't be certain.

From what Whitty said this morning, it seems that we are entering the "delay" phase of the government's plan which is to slow down community spread as much as possible in order to push that peak towards the summer months. This is where we may start to hear about event cancellations, the closure of educational establishments and the like.

 

[knocky1]

Most of the world uses their hand and washes it after. Then there’s the Daily Mail, although not the online edition - you’ll ruin your smart phone!

That's a smear campaign against The Mail.

 

[Triggaaar]

One thing is for certain, you're not going to make anyone safer by spending all day arguing on the internet.

And you are?

 

[Triggaaar]

Interesting today that two people in hospital have been tested positive and they were not in for anything connected with the virus.

I thought it was difficult/expensive to test for it, so why are they testing random people who don't have symptoms?