Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Guinness Boy]

Firstly, I think a death rate of 0.5% is 5 times worse than flu. Secondly, your figures look very conservative to me, where have you got them from?

Worldwide, there have been 95,509 cases. 56,975 have recovered, 3,286 have died, giving a death rate of 6%. In time, when more data is available, the death rate might be estimated as a lot lower the 6% (we can only hope), but it doesn't make sense to have 4% as your upper end of the range including a margin for error. I can't see anything suggesting it's as low as 0.5%.


There probably aren't fewer that 100 cases in the UK.

Your two points are contradictory. If you don't know how many cases there are, by definition you don't know the mortality rate

 

[Nobby]

I see the Daily Mail and the Daily Express, haven of senior citizens, are loving their spread and anxiety and panic.

They love a bit of Armageddon.

If they keep going like this they’ll kill a few off before the virus even hits properly

The Daily Mail, Express and Sun are just as toxic as this bloody virus

 

[Soylent Blue]

Fatality rates.

WHO says 3.4


Mainland China 3.7
Hubei 4.3
https://covid19info.live/

Deaths v cured rate
6% v 94%
This removes the time element from the data
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This guys pretty good.
https://www.youtube.com/user/ChrisMartensondotcom

https://www.youtube.com/user/ChrisMartensondotcom

 

[Guinness Boy]

the graphic is also showing those hospitialised by Covid-19 verse all flu incidence in population, so is grossly distorted.

its also very likely there are more people infected than being detected, as only those with moderate to severe symptoms will even be reporting any illness. this means on one hand we're further along than thought in terms of spread, the fatality rate skewed too.

Well exactly. Let's not let boring old facts get in the way of destroying our economy though.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Fatality rates.

WHO says 3.4


Mainland China 3.7
Hubei 4.3
https://covid19info.live/

Deaths v cured rate
6% v 94%
This removes the time element from the data
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This guys pretty good.
https://www.youtube.com/user/ChrisMartensondotcom

https://www.youtube.com/user/ChrisMartensondotcom

Still not good with an apostrophe are you Looney?

 

[Triggaaar]

Couldn't you read the stat I posted in response to the last clever clogs who came out with that line?

No, don't know what you're referring to. I read your post as saying you weren't worried about Coronavirus, as you think you're more likely to die on your next car journey, than die of Coronavirus. I don't know the stats for numbers of deaths per car journey, but I imagine it's vanishingly low.

I assume you're healthy and so not particularly at risk. I find it odd that you appear to have no empathy for those not in your position. And I'm not talking about those over 90, because obviously none of us will live forever, we just hope to have a decent innings, but there are many of us or our family members who are young and have a full life ahead of us, albeit with what's currently a manageable health issue. This virus is quite a worry for some of us.

 

[Dave the OAP]

Interesting today that two people in hospital have been tested positive and they were not in for anything connected with the virus.

The suggestion is it is rife in the community but 99.99% of people have it, have a sniffle and it passes...

I wonder what would be the results if there was a programme of testing people when they go into shopping centres, cinemas etc like they are doing in the Far East. Looks like a simple temperature check initially.

I do think this is all knee jerk, BUT there are lots of people out there with asthma and other issues that are certainly at risk. A guy over the road is undergoing chemotherapy and he tries to get out to walk the dog daily, but his wife tries to stop him chatting as he is walking around. Bit extreme, but you can understand her concerns,

 

[Nobby]

Well exactly. Let's not let boring old facts get in the way of destroying our economy though.

I hope you’re washing your hands

 

[Triggaaar]

Poor description in my view - expected better from you.
My old mum is 86 and she ain't shitting it as you say.
Older people like her are not like the snowflake generation around today.

I agree that many 86-year-olds won't be shitting it, but not because they're not snowflakes, but because they're already lived their life and they don't expect to live for many more years anyway.

 

[Icy Gull]

No, don't know what you're referring to. I read your post as saying you weren't worried about Coronavirus, as you think you're more likely to die on your next car journey, than die of Coronavirus. I don't know the stats for numbers of deaths per car journey, but I imagine it's vanishingly low.

I assume you're healthy and so not particularly at risk. I find it odd that you appear to have no empathy for those not in your position. And I'm not talking about those over 90, because obviously none of us will live forever, we just hope to have a decent innings, but there are many of us or our family members who are young and have a full life ahead of us, albeit with what's currently a manageable health issue. This virus is quite a worry for some of us.

There are quite a few cavalier/ ignorant/who gives a **** type comments on this thread. Disappointing but hey ho

 

[Triggaaar]

nah. we are still living in singapore so been in the middle of this for months already, our government here have a much better handle on it than bojo and co.

What have they done well, and what should be done here? I was told that people in Singapore just weren't going to work (I assume it was an exaggeration).

 

[Guinness Boy]

No, don't know what you're referring to. I read your post as saying you weren't worried about Coronavirus, as you think you're more likely to die on your next car journey, than die of Coronavirus. I don't know the stats for numbers of deaths per car journey, but I imagine it's vanishingly low.

I assume you're healthy and so not particularly at risk. I find it odd that you appear to have no empathy for those not in your position. And I'm not talking about those over 90, because obviously none of us will live forever, we just hope to have a decent innings, but there are many of us or our family members who are young and have a full life ahead of us, albeit with what's currently a manageable health issue. This virus is quite a worry for some of us.

3700 people die every day globally in road traffic incidents. 3200 people (approx) have died from covid-19 in total. The sources for both figures are on my earlier post that you conveniently ignored.

You also conveniently ignored the reply I gave you on the other thread - my step father will be in a very high risk category should there be an epidemic.

 

[Triggaaar]

Don't the genuine peace loving always truthful Cinese have a research lab in Wuhan? Sure I read it somewhere..

A young, fit, healthy, whistle-blower doctor may have offered an insight into this, but sadly he suddenly died.

 

[Triggaaar]

Your two points are contradictory. If you don't know how many cases there are, by definition you don't know the mortality rate

No they're not. I've not stated that we know the mortality rate, I made it clear that we don't yet know.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

[tweet]1235252608845197314[/tweet]

 

[Guinness Boy]

No they're not. I've not stated that we know the mortality rate, I made it clear that we don't yet know.

But you said

I can't see anything suggesting it's as low as 0.5%.


There probably aren't fewer that 100 cases in the UK.

If there are more than 100 cases in the UK and the only Brit to die was on a cruise ship in Japan then the UK death rate is lower than 0.5%.

Still. as pointed out a number of times on this thread, the numbers I got were from a BBC factual special on covid-19 and applied a statistical margin of error to the WHO data at that time. So, you're not arguing with me, you're arguing with the actual advice that's going out from the national broadcaster.

 

[Silverhatch]

A young, fit, healthy, whistle-blower doctor may have offered an insight into this, but sadly he suddenly died.

Yes he did, in a state controlled country, where the virus originated and whose security services had told him to STFU! Now that is sinister.

 

[Triggaaar]

3700 people die every day globally in road traffic incidents.

Road traffic accidents? So you're adding all the pedestrians to your stats to try and make the odds of you dying in a car journey here appear more likely. And you're using stats from all the dangerous roads around the world, despite the fact that you won't be anywhere near them. You didn't say 'people on roads around the world', you said you on your next car journey.

3200 people (approx) have died from covid-19 in total.

And then you look at the currently low number of people that have died for Covid-19, apparently oblivious to the fact that the number will clearly rise significantly.

The sources for both figures are on my earlier post that you conveniently ignored.

I either didn't notice it, or didn't think it was relevant.

You also conveniently ignored the reply I gave you on the other thread - my step father will be in a very high risk category should there be an epidemic.

Nothing convenient about it. I don't try and memorise all the posts I read. I saw your post comparing chance of death in your next journey, with chance of death from the Coronavirus, and thought 'well that's clearly nonsense', so I replied.

 

[Barrow Boy]

My wife works at Sainsburys Lyons Farm Worthing as a checkout operator. When she got in to work yesterday there were printed notes at each checkout stating that staff were responsible for providing their own hand sanitant and that the company would not be providing them with any (the shop has none in stock). They had to provide their own tissues (fair enough) and that they would enable checkout staff to wash their hands where practicable!!!

 

[pb21]

3700 people die every day globally in road traffic incidents. 3200 people (approx) have died from covid-19 in total. The sources for both figures are on my earlier post that you conveniently ignored.

You also conveniently ignored the reply I gave you on the other thread - my step father will be in a very high risk category should there be an epidemic.

I am not sure you are more likely to die when you drive next.

There is a 0.2% chance I would die if I got the virus, i.e. 1 in 500, maybe more likely for you if you are older?

I would be pretty surprised if the chance of me dying the next time I go for a drive is higher than 0.2%?

I have driven many hundreds (thousands?) of times, and I haven't died yet, maybe I am lucky?