Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Albion my Albion]

Would we be happy about that as well?

Not really. Better to end whichever way and try to better your team than have a long down time.

I find it interesting that the Chinese may be forced to default on their promise to the US in their trade agreement to buy large quantities of certain items. Trump has got to be fuming at Mother Nature in his sleep. Ok, right, he doesn't sleep.

 

[dazzer6666]

Interesting time-lapse video of the 1,000-bed hospital going up in 10 days......

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51349154

 

[goldstone]

Thing that that gets me is all these Brits demanding to be brought home before the "rescue" flight was arranged. "Why hasn't the British government done anything for us?" Did the British government force them to go to China? No. Were they employed by the British Government? No. So why the hell should the British government (for which, read the taxpayer, for which read you and me) be responsible for bringing them home? They made a decision to go and live in China so if they want out for any reason then they make their own arrangements. And I hope they are charged for the cost of the rescue flight.

 

[portlock seagull]

Thing that that gets me is all these Brits demanding to be brought home before the "rescue" flight was arranged. "Why hasn't the British government done anything for us?" Did the British government force them to go to China? No. Were they employed by the British Government? No. So why the hell should the British government (for which, read the taxpayer, for which read you and me) be responsible for bringing them home? They made a decision to go and live in China so if they want out for any reason then they make their own arrangements. And I hope they are charged for the cost of the rescue flight.

I agree. Everything from travel operators going bust to ash clouds!

 

[Justice]

I was enjoying a meal out and a few beers last night unfortunately a Chinese lady on the next table started coughing violently the over reaction was comical stampede to the exit

 

[golddene]

Thing that that gets me is all these Brits demanding to be brought home before the "rescue" flight was arranged. "Why hasn't the British government done anything for us?" Did the British government force them to go to China? No. Were they employed by the British Government? No. So why the hell should the British government (for which, read the taxpayer, for which read you and me) be responsible for bringing them home? They made a decision to go and live in China so if they want out for any reason then they make their own arrangements. And I hope they are charged for the cost of the rescue flight.

just announced on the radio one of the evacuees had been taken ill !!!

 

[hans kraay fan club]

These are the four coaches that will transporting them from Brize ..
Couldn’t make it up...

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Some rich imagery there, it's an omen.

Took me a whole to get there but laughed when I finally got it. Worth zooming in.

I appreciate it ruins the joke - but there are FIVE coaches in that picture

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Deadly Chinese Wuhan virus

just announced on the radio one of the evacuees had been taken ill !!!

Cough and cold. In quarantine but feels better and has put it down to the stress of the situation. He is being tested and so is waiting for the results. Source: bbc news website

For some perspective, in 2018, 80,000 people world wide died of normal annual flu ..... source: Centre for disease Control and a Prevention.

Mortality rate is 2-3%. SARS was 9-10%. If gets on par with SARS the. Things could become interesting.


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[Thunder Bolt]

Cough and cold. In quarantine but feels better and has put it down to the stress of the situation. He is being tested and so is waiting for the results.

For some perspective, in 2018, 80,000 people world wide died of normal annual flu .....


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Posters don’t want perspective. They want to panic and blame someone.

 

[vegster]

I appreciate it ruins the joke - but there are FIVE coaches in that picture

I'd like to quote the late great, Terry Pratchett on this subject... "There was once a fifth horseman, Kaos, but he left them before they were famous because of artistic disagreements "

So, five is still valid.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Cough and cold. In quarantine but feels better and has put it down to the stress of the situation. He is being tested and so is waiting for the results. Source: bbc news website

For some perspective, in 2018, 80,000 people world wide died of normal annual flu ..... source: Centre for disease Control and a Prevention.

Mortality rate is 2-3%. SARS was 9-10%. If gets on par with SARS the. Things could become interesting.


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That figure for the flu is just for the USA - worldwide the figure is 250,000 - 500,000 people dying annually.

17-18 in the US was an especially bad year - 38,000 the year before and 35,000 in 2018-19. In the UK its apparently 600 or so in a normal year, but was as high as 13,000 in 2008-09.

The figure of 80,000 for the states is out of 45 million infections, so a death rate of 0.18% - this coronavirus has a mortality rate about 15 times that, so would cause the equivalent of 1.2 million deaths in the US if it infected as many people as flu does in bad years....

Probably worth quarantining everyone for.

At the extreme scale, the 1918 flu epidemic killed 40-50 million people, and was estimated to have infected 1 billion - that's a 5% death rate.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

That figure for the flu is just for the USA - worldwide the figure is 250,000 - 500,000 people dying annually.

17-18 in the US was an especially bad year - 38,000 the year before and 35,000 in 2018-19. In the UK its apparently 600 or so in a normal year, but was as high as 13,000 in 2008-09.

The figure of 80,000 for the states is out of 45 million infections, so a death rate of 0.18% - this coronavirus has a mortality rate about 15 times that, so would cause the equivalent of 1.2 million deaths in the US if it infected as many people as flu does in bad years....

Probably worth quarantining everyone for.

At the extreme scale, the 1918 flu epidemic killed 40-50 million people, and was estimated to have infected 1 billion - that's a 5% death rate.

Spanish flu was a killer for the young and healthy which was why it was such a *******. The standard of health care has improved significantly since then and suspect the mortality rate would be much lower.








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[Thunder Bolt]

That figure for the flu is just for the USA - worldwide the figure is 250,000 - 500,000 people dying annually.

17-18 in the US was an especially bad year - 38,000 the year before and 35,000 in 2018-19. In the UK its apparently 600 or so in a normal year, but was as high as 13,000 in 2008-09.

The figure of 80,000 for the states is out of 45 million infections, so a death rate of 0.18% - this coronavirus has a mortality rate about 15 times that, so would cause the equivalent of 1.2 million deaths in the US if it infected as many people as flu does in bad years....

Probably worth quarantining everyone for.

At the extreme scale, the 1918 flu epidemic killed 40-50 million people, and was estimated to have infected 1 billion - that's a 5% death rate.

I survived having Asian flu in 1967, whilst sharing a mess with 6 other young women. Asian flu was classed as an epidemic that winter. None of the other 6 caught so much as a sniffle, and I got better two weeks later.

We’ve had bird flu, swine flu and all sorts of other epidemics which will kill people. This is no worse, and probably not as bad as other viruses.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

I survived having Asian flu in 1967, whilst sharing a mess with 6 other young women. Asian flu was classed as an epidemic that winter. None of the other 6 caught so much as a sniffle, and I got better two weeks later.

We’ve had bird flu, swine flu and all sorts of other epidemics which will kill people. This is no worse, and probably not as bad as other viruses.

Oh it's worse than bird flu. Swine flu is just a flu, albeit a version of the influenza A virus that caused the epidemic of 1918, and the Asian flu you were exposed to. Swine flu killed 250-600,000 people in all probability, and is the reason for the spike in flu deaths in the UK at that time (13000 compared to an average of 600) but it infected some 10-20% of the worlds population, so the mortality rate was very low.

Once you get a mortality rate over 0.5%, if it was to go pandemic and infect people at will, that would be something major. If this virus infected 20% of the worlds population at a 2% mortality rate, that would be 30 million dead, 250,000 in the UK

Barely put a dent in our population I suppose, but pretty significant. We'd all know someone who died.

Thats why they're quarantining everyone, which is why it will probably end up being not that significant in raw numbers

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Oh it's worse than bird flu. Swine flu is just a flu, albeit a version of the influenza A virus that caused the epidemic of 1918, and the Asian flu you were exposed to. Swine flu killed 250-600,000 people in all probability, and is the reason for the spike in flu deaths in the UK at that time (13000 compared to an average of 600) but it infected some 10-20% of the worlds population, so the mortality rate was very low.

Once you get a mortality rate over 0.5%, if it was to go pandemic and infect people at will, that would be something major. If this virus infected 20% of the worlds population at a 2% mortality rate, that would be 30 million dead, 250,000 in the UK

Barely put a dent in our population I suppose, but pretty significant. We'd all know someone who died.

Thats why they're quarantining everyone, which is why it will probably end up being not that significant in raw numbers

Beautifully explained. Can you do sufficient versus necessary, or specificity versus selectivity too?

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Oh it's worse than bird flu. Swine flu is just a flu, albeit a version of the influenza A virus that caused the epidemic of 1918, and the Asian flu you were exposed to. Swine flu killed 250-600,000 people in all probability, and is the reason for the spike in flu deaths in the UK at that time (13000 compared to an average of 600) but it infected some 10-20% of the worlds population, so the mortality rate was very low.

Once you get a mortality rate over 0.5%, if it was to go pandemic and infect people at will, that would be something major. If this virus infected 20% of the worlds population at a 2% mortality rate, that would be 30 million dead, 250,000 in the UK

Barely put a dent in our population I suppose, but pretty significant. We'd all know someone who died.

Thats why they're quarantining everyone, which is why it will probably end up being not that significant in raw numbers

The Asian flu of 1967/68 went pandemic and killed one million people. I had it and survived.
I also survived the small pox outbreak in Brighton in 1952.

The press will always build up these types of illnesses and then people panic. Basic hygiene like washing hands frequently, not touching your nose or eyes, using tissues for sneezing etc will prevent most spreads of types of flu.

 

[Solid at the back]

Oh it's worse than bird flu. Swine flu is just a flu, albeit a version of the influenza A virus that caused the epidemic of 1918, and the Asian flu you were exposed to. Swine flu killed 250-600,000 people in all probability, and is the reason for the spike in flu deaths in the UK at that time (13000 compared to an average of 600) but it infected some 10-20% of the worlds population, so the mortality rate was very low.

Once you get a mortality rate over 0.5%, if it was to go pandemic and infect people at will, that would be something major. If this virus infected 20% of the worlds population at a 2% mortality rate, that would be 30 million dead, 250,000 in the UK

Barely put a dent in our population I suppose, but pretty significant. We'd all know someone who died.

Thats why they're quarantining everyone, which is why it will probably end up being not that significant in raw numbers

The damage is already done, this virus is all over China, and you can still travel in and out of China,as someone said earlier, you can even do this unchecked. Add to that this virus spreads before symptoms show, then quarantining people with symptoms, really makes no difference and is far far to late.
Even if we closed the borders now, I doubt that would make a blind bit of difference. They should of been closed 2 or 3 weeks ago

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

The Asian flu of 1967/68 went pandemic and killed one million people. I had it and survived.
I also survived the small pox outbreak in Brighton in 1952.

The press will always build up these types of illnesses and then people panic. Basic hygiene like washing hands frequently, not touching your nose or eyes, using tissues for sneezing etc will prevent most spreads of types of flu.

Asian flu infected a third of the worlds population. Death rate <0.2%.that seems to be about the limit for influenza viruses. Now these coronaviruses, they're a bit different. MERS has a fatality rate >30%, but thankfully that can't spread person to person. SARS has a death rate of 9%, including 50% of people over 60. Judging by your history of Asian flu I'm putting you in that bracket, thankfully SARS didn't go pandemic. This Wuhan coronavirus has a lower mortality rate, but it's still 2-3%, and it looks like it IS going to go pandemic. The mortality rate will probably drop over time, but if it goes pandemic the number of people killed will swamp Asian flu.

But yes, its not smallpox, by far the most deadly highly-contagious virus. Polio not far behind, and both have been eradicated.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Asian flu infected a third of the worlds population. Death rate <0.2%.that seems to be about the limit for influenza viruses. Now these coronaviruses, they're a bit different. MERS has a fatality rate >30%, but thankfully that can't spread person to person. SARS has a death rate of 9%, including 50% of people over 60. Judging by your history of Asian flu I'm putting you in that bracket, thankfully SARS didn't go pandemic. This Wuhan coronavirus has a lower mortality rate, but it's still 2-3%, and it looks like it IS going to go pandemic. The mortality rate will probably drop over time, but if it goes pandemic the number of people killed will swamp Asian flu.

But yes, its not smallpox, by far the most deadly highly-contagious virus. Polio not far behind, and both have been eradicated.

Do you honestly think it is going to go pandemic?

 

[Soylent Blue]

We’ve had bird flu, swine flu and all sorts of other epidemics which will kill people. This is no worse, and probably not as bad as other viruses.

Anyone spouting this line or various types of "its just flu" needs to sort their head out.

Non-peer reviewed data from the Chinese Acadamy suggests an R0 rate of infection as roughly 3.3 to 4.7 with a 95% confidence interval, or 4.08. 2.5 is considered a pandemic.

Also a fatality rate similar to SARS at 6.5%.

There is a lot of competing data atm and i'm trying to stay on top of it. The rate of complications is roughly 20%, that is those needing hospital treatment, this will over whelm countries with poor health services and/or poor organisation. This could be a disaster for africa which has revealed about 20 cases across 4 countries in the last 24 hours.

The only way to stop it is close boarders and quarantine people coming through, this is only feasable in homogonous countries which have lower levels of transit.

Countries are endulging in pacifying their populaces like spraying passangers with water in Indonesia or promoting homopathy as a cure in India, or straight up denial like the UK.

havn't watched this yet, but this chap looks clued up imo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuRJD8ZxDLk



This needs updating.
https://wuflu.live/