Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[LamieRobertson]

If there was unlimited capacity everyone would be treated but there isn’t. Surely those that have tried their best to avoid infection (by getting vaccinated) should be prioritised over those who haven’t?

I’d happily see drunk drivers denied treatment but that’s a different argument.

Different argument but same theory re denying treatment ….should the ‘obese’ (I’m not picking on them) be denied treatment as it’s known you are more likely to need hospital treatment, if they haven’t tried to get fitter? ….the whole argument of denying hospital treatment runs across many facets of life …alcohol…fags etc…most would have paid taxes…indirectly if not directly…. I’m grateful” I’m not making the decisions …

 

[Solid at the back]

One reason is that those figures aren't accurate. According to EU stats, the surprisingly high figures for Portugal and Spain are because those appear to be the numbers for only 1 jab. Certainly Portugal must be wrong unless they are jabbing 11 year olds and under, because I refuse to believe that literally everyone in the country has been double jabbed.

The UK has approx 81% (54m) of its people eligible to have been double vaccinated, and 46m of them have been fully vaccinated. That's 85%. Virtually nobody under 18 has been fully vaccinated because they weren't eligible for the first jab since September unless they are medically vulnerable.

Austria has been vaccinated 12 year olds since May. Of their total population, 89% are eligible to be fully vaccinated and 64% have been - 64 out of 89 is 72%. There's a lot of the difference - we have 15% eligible but unvaccinated, they have 28% eligible but unvaccinated. Hence the worry about the high number of refuseniks.

So even though the total figures are not wildly different, the problem Austria has is that they have far more adults unvaccinated than we have. The numbers look less bad for them because they have more children fully vaccinated, but children aren't the ones filling the hospitals.

This is an excellent post.

 

[Marty___Mcfly]

One reason is that those figures aren't accurate. According to EU stats, the surprisingly high figures for Portugal and Spain are because those appear to be the numbers for only 1 jab. Certainly Portugal must be wrong unless they are jabbing 11 year olds and under, because I refuse to believe that literally everyone in the country has been double jabbed.

The UK has approx 81% (54m) of its people eligible to have been double vaccinated, and 46m of them have been fully vaccinated. That's 85%. Virtually nobody under 18 has been fully vaccinated because they weren't eligible for the first jab since September unless they are medically vulnerable.

Austria has been vaccinated 12 year olds since May. Of their total population, 89% are eligible to be fully vaccinated and 64% have been - 64 out of 89 is 72%. There's a lot of the difference - we have 15% eligible but unvaccinated, they have 28% eligible but unvaccinated. Hence the worry about the high number of refuseniks.

So even though the total figures are not wildly different, the problem Austria has is that they have far more adults unvaccinated than we have. The numbers look less bad for them because they have more children fully vaccinated, but children aren't the ones filling the hospitals.

Yes makes sense.

I guess ICU submissions possibly come down to the % of high risk folk who have been jabbed (OAPs, obese, pre-existing conditions) etc. As pretty much no one else ends up in ICU whether jabbed or not. I haven’t seen any figures to compare this factor between countries but maybe Austria etc are in worse shape.

And boosters a factor and haven’t seen many charts etc comparing 3rd jab rollout in each country.

Also UK maybe has higher level of immunity in the population from covid infections as UK (or England at least) has been largely open without restrictions since July - whereas other countries in Europe held on to some restrictions so maybe limited the spread of immunity from covid infections.

Will be interesting to see how it pans out in the various countries from here.

 

[Billy the Fish]

Mask wearing cuts incidence by more than 50%

I know it's a few days old now but I found this quite amusing.
[TWEET]1461325657653317640[/TWEET]

 

[Yoda]

One reason is that those figures aren't accurate. According to EU stats, the surprisingly high figures for Portugal and Spain are because those appear to be the numbers for only 1 jab. Certainly Portugal must be wrong unless they are jabbing 11 year olds and under, because I refuse to believe that literally everyone in the country has been double jabbed.

The UK has approx 81% (54m) of its people eligible to have been double vaccinated, and 46m of them have been fully vaccinated. That's 85%. Virtually nobody under 18 has been fully vaccinated because they weren't eligible for the first jab since September unless they are medically vulnerable.

Austria has been vaccinated 12 year olds since May. Of their total population, 89% are eligible to be fully vaccinated and 64% have been - 64 out of 89 is 72%. There's a lot of the difference - we have 15% eligible but unvaccinated, they have 28% eligible but unvaccinated. Hence the worry about the high number of refuseniks.

So even though the total figures are not wildly different, the problem Austria has is that they have far more adults unvaccinated than we have. The numbers look less bad for them because they have more children fully vaccinated, but children aren't the ones filling the hospitals.

I believe the Portuguese figures for a percentage of those eligible to be vaccinated. (similar to what we're publishing on the government covid data site).

 

[Weststander]

I believe the Portuguese figures for a percentage of those eligible to be vaccinated. (similar to what we're publishing on the government covid data site).

and they’ve vaccinated kids from age 12 upwards, parents compliant.

 

[Yoda]

and they’ve vaccinated kids from age 12 upwards, parents compliant.

And an 87% take up in the 12-17 age category too

 

[Marty___Mcfly]

This shows 1st jabs (blue line) and 2nd jabs (red line). Looks like Spain and Portugal are much higher than others but I think this seems to be correct, these are all a % of population, not the % take up from those who have been offered jab.

UK % on a par with the likes of Germany and Sweden.

Take up in children may be a factor, I think I saw only 1 million UK children have taken up the jab. Although- another study showed 80% of 12-16 year olds have already had covid, so there is good immunity in that age group anyway.

 

[Billy the Fish]

Take up in children may be a factor, I think I saw only 1 million UK children have taken up the jab. Although- another study showed 80% of 12-16 year olds have already had covid, so there is good immunity in that age group anyway.

It is age, the figure for over 35s is well over 90%. Data is in the weekly spreadsheet on this page, sadly they don't provide any nice graphs or data on under 18s

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/

 

[dsr-burnley]

This shows 1st jabs (blue line) and 2nd jabs (red line). Looks like Spain and Portugal are much higher than others but I think this seems to be correct, these are all a % of population, not the % take up from those who have been offered jab.

UK % on a par with the likes of Germany and Sweden.

Take up in children may be a factor, I think I saw only 1 million UK children have taken up the jab. Although- another study showed 80% of 12-16 year olds have already had covid, so there is good immunity in that age group anyway.

Interesting that Spain and Portugal have given far more second jabs than first jabs.

Virtually no UK children will be fully vaccinated (not enough time), though I can well believe that there are relatively few have taken it up. Messages from the authorities have been mixed, and to say the least lukewarm about the benefits - probably with good reason.

 

[dazzer6666]

Interesting article and aligns with my unqualified theory……(apologies if paywalled)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...proves-england-right-end-restrictions-summer/

Extract

With cases of Covid-19 soaring across Europe, the people who were calling Britain a "plague island" a few weeks ago no longer look so clever. When Eastern Europe saw a surge in infections in October, it was easy to blame low rates of vaccination. But Ireland, Belgium, Austria, Denmark and the Netherlands have since overtaken the UK. Germany and Switzerland are close behind, while exponential growth in France and Italy suggests that it is only a matter of time before most of Western Europe is in serious trouble.

This is not a good place to be with winter approaching, and it explains why England dropped all restrictions in July.

At the time, however, few seemed to grasp that. The decision to end lockdown in the summer was described as a “dangerous and unethical experiment” in a letter published in the Lancet, and the self-appointed experts on Independent Sage called for the Government to cancel “freedom day”, close indoor hospitality and ban indoor gatherings. In fact, only a few weeks ago, critics of the Government were warning of another lockdown if Plan B – mandatory masking, vaccine passports and working from home – was not implemented immediately.

We shouldn’t count our chickens yet, but as restrictions come back into force across Europe, it is becoming increasingly obvious that delaying “freedom day” would have made a winter lockdown more likely, not less. While many countries are facing their first major wave of the delta variant against a backdrop of waning immunity and cold weather, England built up a wall of resistance to Covid in the mild summer and autumn months, which has now been fortified by twelve million booster shots.

This was always the plan, a fact some Government critics conveniently seem to have forgotten. Back in July, the Chief Medical Officer, Chris Whitty, said: "There is quite a strong view by many people, including myself actually, that going in the summer has some advantages, all other things being equal, to opening up into the autumn when schools are going back and when we’re heading into the winter period when the NHS tends to be under greatest pressure."

In the first year of the pandemic, those who favoured more restrictions could usually rely on Whitty and most epidemiologists to support them. But not any more. “We are not behind Europe in this wave, they are behind us,” Professor Paul Hunter told the Guardian earlier this month. “We are not currently seeing a surge of the same magnitude as Europe at present largely because of the high case numbers over recent months, which most of Europe missed out on.”

The “slight gamble” of opening up in July – as Professor Neil Ferguson put it – seems to be paying off. Although the number of Covid cases has been rising for the last two weeks, rates have continued to fall among the over-60s, and the number of people in hospital with Covid has dropped by a fifth since the start of November. In France and Germany, the number of cases reported each day has doubled in a fortnight. In England, cases have fluctuated at a relatively high level but have not doubled since early July, and there have been periods of sustained decline.

In short, the virus is finding it harder and harder to find susceptible individuals to infect. Those who have had their booster shot have strong immunity against symptomatic infection, while those who are unvaccinated have mostly been infected by now and have a similar level of protection.

What’s more, anyone who wants to enjoy a normal life has been able to do so for the last four months. This was a major benefit of “freedom day” that is rarely acknowledged by critics of the Government.

An exit wave was inevitable and it was better to have it in summer than in winter. We always knew that more people would die before the pandemic was over, not least because several million adults chose not to get vaccinated.

 

[Weststander]

Interesting article and aligns with my unqualified theory……(apologies if paywalled)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...proves-england-right-end-restrictions-summer/

Extract

With cases of Covid-19 soaring across Europe, the people who were calling Britain a "plague island" a few weeks ago no longer look so clever. When Eastern Europe saw a surge in infections in October, it was easy to blame low rates of vaccination. But Ireland, Belgium, Austria, Denmark and the Netherlands have since overtaken the UK. Germany and Switzerland are close behind, while exponential growth in France and Italy suggests that it is only a matter of time before most of Western Europe is in serious trouble.

This is not a good place to be with winter approaching, and it explains why England dropped all restrictions in July.

At the time, however, few seemed to grasp that. The decision to end lockdown in the summer was described as a “dangerous and unethical experiment” in a letter published in the Lancet, and the self-appointed experts on Independent Sage called for the Government to cancel “freedom day”, close indoor hospitality and ban indoor gatherings. In fact, only a few weeks ago, critics of the Government were warning of another lockdown if Plan B – mandatory masking, vaccine passports and working from home – was not implemented immediately.

We shouldn’t count our chickens yet, but as restrictions come back into force across Europe, it is becoming increasingly obvious that delaying “freedom day” would have made a winter lockdown more likely, not less. While many countries are facing their first major wave of the delta variant against a backdrop of waning immunity and cold weather, England built up a wall of resistance to Covid in the mild summer and autumn months, which has now been fortified by twelve million booster shots.

This was always the plan, a fact some Government critics conveniently seem to have forgotten. Back in July, the Chief Medical Officer, Chris Whitty, said: "There is quite a strong view by many people, including myself actually, that going in the summer has some advantages, all other things being equal, to opening up into the autumn when schools are going back and when we’re heading into the winter period when the NHS tends to be under greatest pressure."

In the first year of the pandemic, those who favoured more restrictions could usually rely on Whitty and most epidemiologists to support them. But not any more. “We are not behind Europe in this wave, they are behind us,” Professor Paul Hunter told the Guardian earlier this month. “We are not currently seeing a surge of the same magnitude as Europe at present largely because of the high case numbers over recent months, which most of Europe missed out on.”

The “slight gamble” of opening up in July – as Professor Neil Ferguson put it – seems to be paying off. Although the number of Covid cases has been rising for the last two weeks, rates have continued to fall among the over-60s, and the number of people in hospital with Covid has dropped by a fifth since the start of November. In France and Germany, the number of cases reported each day has doubled in a fortnight. In England, cases have fluctuated at a relatively high level but have not doubled since early July, and there have been periods of sustained decline.

In short, the virus is finding it harder and harder to find susceptible individuals to infect. Those who have had their booster shot have strong immunity against symptomatic infection, while those who are unvaccinated have mostly been infected by now and have a similar level of protection.

What’s more, anyone who wants to enjoy a normal life has been able to do so for the last four months. This was a major benefit of “freedom day” that is rarely acknowledged by critics of the Government.

An exit wave was inevitable and it was better to have it in summer than in winter. We always knew that more people would die before the pandemic was over, not least because several million adults chose not to get vaccinated.

Thanks, underlining my recollection of this summer’s events. It was openly discussed about getting as ready as possible, one way or another, for the indoor months.

Another important tick for the UK was seeing out the proper time interval between jabs, as prescribed by the pharmas. I recall that being slagged off by left wing shock jocks and others not a million miles away. Prof Linda Bauld and others really ITK are now pointing out that was vital, giving greater long term immunity. Several continental states impatiently overrode those protocols.

Giving the impression that Whitty, Vallance, JVT, et al may be experts.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Thanks, underlining my recollection of this summer’s events. It was openly discussed about getting as ready as possible, one way or another, for the indoor months

.

Another important tick for the UK was seeing out the proper time interval between jabs, as prescribed by the pharmas. I recall that being slagged off by left wing shock jocks and others not a million miles away. Prof Linda Bauld and others really ITK are now pointing out that was vital, giving greater long term immunity. Several continental states impatiently overrode those protocols.

Giving the impression that Whitty, Vallance, JVT, et al may be experts.

Likewise….(that first bit)

 

[dsr-burnley]

Thanks, underlining my recollection of this summer’s events. It was openly discussed about getting as ready as possible, one way or another, for the indoor months.

Another important tick for the UK was seeing out the proper time interval between jabs, as prescribed by the pharmas. I recall that being slagged off by left wing shock jocks and others not a million miles away. Prof Linda Bauld and others really ITK are now pointing out that was vital, giving greater long term immunity. Several continental states impatiently overrode those protocols.

Giving the impression that Whitty, Vallance, JVT, et al may be experts.

I agree with your (and the Daily Telegraph's) recollection of the reasoning this summer. But I don't think I agree with your memory of the interval between jabs.

As I remember it, the tests of the vaccine found out that they worked with a 3 week interval. They never made any assertion that 12 weeks was better than 3, or that it was worse than 3, because they didn't test 12 weeks. They were in a hurry and didn't have time, so they tested a standard 3 week interval, which worked.

Then Tony Blair was the first person I remember to come out and say that we should make it a longer interval, not because a longer interval would give better protection, but because a longer interval mean that we could get more people to have their first jab quicker. Because the tests also proved that just one jab worked, albeit not as effectively as two. That was the reason for extending the period, nothing to do with how effective it was. Several continental states (well, France anyway, I don't know about any others) ridiculed this as not following the science. As it happens, it worked on two counts - one, the stated aim of getting more first jabs quickly was achieved; two, it provided (if that's proved now, which I think it may be) to be a more effective regime for providing longer term immunity.

Other countries didn't override the protocols, they stuck with the protocol. It was the UK that overrode the recommendation.

 

[beorhthelm]

As I remember it, the tests of the vaccine found out that they worked with a 3 week interval. They never made any assertion that 12 weeks was better than 3, or that it was worse than 3, because they didn't test 12 weeks. They were in a hurry and didn't have time, so they tested a standard 3 week interval, which worked.

they did test with longer interval, the data showed it had a marginal (few %) less efficacy. JCVI said we'll take that schedule thankyou, get millions more through and covered on one dose.

 

[Weststander]

they did test with longer interval, the data showed it had a marginal (few %) less efficacy. JCVI said we'll take that schedule thankyou, get millions more through and covered on one dose.

Realised very early on.
https://post.parliament.uk/changing-the-uk-covid-19-vaccine-dosing-schedule/

Modelling showed far fewer folk would get seriously ill.

In a cautious BMJ article on 6 January 2021, they did include these positive paragraphs/quotes:


“But Andrew Pollard, the head of the Oxford Vaccine Group and chief investigator into the trial of this vaccine, said that extending the gap between vaccines made biological sense. “Generally, a longer gap between vaccine doses leads to a better immune response, with the second dose causing a better boost. (With HPV vaccine for girls, for example, the gap is a year and gives better responses than a one month gap.) From the Oxford vaccine trials, there is 70% protection after the first dose up to the second dose, and the immune response was about three times greater after the second dose when the second dose was delayed, comparing second dose after four weeks versus second dose after 2-3 months,” he told The BMJ, referring to the MHRA’s summary of product characteristics.11

“With the Pfizer vaccine, there are no published data comparing shorter and longer gaps between doses because all participants had the second dose at 3-4 weeks. However, the biology is straightforward and will be the same as with all vaccines . . . The immune system remembers the first dose and will respond whether the later dose is at three weeks or three months.”

In a statement the British Society for Immunology said, “Most immunologists would agree that delaying a second ‘booster’ dose of a protein antigen vaccine (such as the two approved covid-19 vaccines) by eight weeks would be unlikely to have a negative effect on the overall immune response post-boost. We also would not expect any specific safety issues to arise for the individual due to delaying the second dose, other than an increased potential risk of disease during the extended period due to lowered protection.” “

 

[A1X]

Covid patients in ICU now almost all unvaccinated, says Oxford scientist

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...almost-all-unvaccinated-says-oxford-scientist

Covid-19 is no longer a disease of the vaccinated, the head of the Oxford jab programme has said.

The “ongoing horror” of patients gasping for breath in hospital is now “largely restricted” to people who are unvaccinated, according to Prof Sir Andrew Pollard.

Even though the more transmissible Delta variant continues to infect thousands, most of those who are fully vaccinated will experience only “mild infections” that are “little more than an unpleasant inconvenience”.

Writing for the Guardian, Pollard said: “Among the general public, the pandemic is still regarded as a silent pestilence, made visible in the images of patients fighting for their next breath … This ongoing horror, which is taking place across ICUs in Britain, is now largely restricted to unvaccinated people.

“Generally, Covid-19 is no longer a disease of the vaccinated; vaccines tend to limit its suffocating affliction, with a few exceptions.”

 

[Bozza]

In hospital, Covid-19 has largely become a disease of the unvaccinated. The man in his 20s who had always watched what he ate, worked out in the gym, was too healthy to ever catch Covid badly. The 48-year-old who never got round to making the appointment.

The person in their 50s whose friend had side-effects. The woman who wanted to wait for more evidence. The young pregnant lady worried about the effect on her baby.

The 60-year-old, brought to hospital with oxygen saturations of 70% by the ambulance that he initially called for his partner, who had died by the time it arrived; both believed that the drug companies bribed the government to get the vaccine approved.

All severely ill with Covid. All unvaccinated and previously healthy. All completely avoidable.

More from an NHS respiratory consultant >>> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...cinated-my-patience-with-them-is-wearing-thin

 

[Bozza]

One final para from the above article:

Translating this to the choice not to take the vaccine, however, I find my patience wearing thin. I think this is for a number of reasons. Even if you are not worried about your own risk from Covid, you cannot know the risk of the people into whose faces you may cough; there is a dangerous and selfish element to this that I find hard to stomach.

 

[dazzer6666]

In hospital, Covid-19 has largely become a disease of the unvaccinated. The man in his 20s who had always watched what he ate, worked out in the gym, was too healthy to ever catch Covid badly. The 48-year-old who never got round to making the appointment.

The person in their 50s whose friend had side-effects. The woman who wanted to wait for more evidence. The young pregnant lady worried about the effect on her baby.

The 60-year-old, brought to hospital with oxygen saturations of 70% by the ambulance that he initially called for his partner, who had died by the time it arrived; both believed that the drug companies bribed the government to get the vaccine approved.

All severely ill with Covid. All unvaccinated and previously healthy. All completely avoidable.

More from an NHS respiratory consultant >>> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...cinated-my-patience-with-them-is-wearing-thin

Hopefully we'll see a lot more prominence given to this type of report - might help convince at some of the antivaxxers to stop gambling with their (and others) lives and costing the NHS a fortune.