Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Fat Boy Fat]

My post was a comparison of bias on twitter Vs here and the same people in both displaying that bias. It wasn't a direct accusation of bias purely on twitter

No, confirmation bias is everywhere and from all sides!

 

[nicko31]

[tweet]1451252732380200975[/tweet]

Weekly Covid admissions...

17 June: 1220
17 Oct: 5250

And Javid says "We are a lot closer to normal than we were a few months ago"

Maybe we're not so tough after all

 

[sparkie]

[tweet]1451210570326286343[/tweet]

We are way under best case modelling, what are we too late in doing?

The later we introduce Plan B, the more chance of Lockdown 4.

I don't want Lockdown 4 so let's not delay on Plan B.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

MP on radio 5 now saying restrictions should be removed to allow the spread of flu (and Covid) because if we don't, the viruses will mutate 'more' to 'more dangerous forms'.

What a stupid prick. Viruses mutate as they spread.

I don't know what party he represents so no confirmation bias here.

 

[dsr-burnley]

MP on radio 5 now saying restrictions should be removed to allow the spread of flu (and Covid) because if we don't, the viruses will mutate 'more' to 'more dangerous forms'.

What a [deleted]. Viruses mutate as they spread.

I don't know what party he represents so no confirmation bias here.

There is a theory that mutations are more likely to thrive when the original virus is suppressed and struggling to survive. More fertile ground for a mutation to move into. Have you taken that into account?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

You seem to have forgotten to mention they have banned Germany and Holland as well

Just an oversight I’m sure and not politically motivated.

I refuse to believe that anyone on NSC would be such a grade A contempitable **** using a global pandemic to always paint the UK in the worst possible light continually trying to score political points ... what sort of sad w***** would do that?

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[Harry Wilson's tackle]

There is a theory that mutations are more likely to thrive when the original virus is suppressed and struggling to survive. More fertile ground for a mutation to move into. Have you taken that into account?

Of course. The MP hasn't though.

The theory doesn't stand up. If it did we would get rid of the flu virus, let it spread around unrestricted, and then it wouldn't mutate and we would not get flu the next year because we would all be immune to the only mutant in town - last year's mutant.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I refuse to believe that anyone on NSC would be such a grade A contempitable **** using a global pandemic to always paint the UK in the worst possible light continually trying to score political points ... what sort of sad w***** would do that?

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I decided to unblock you. What an offensive little prick you are.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I decided to unblock you. What an offensive little prick you are.

I thought you said you were going to row back on being a tedious arrogant bellend .... epic fail!

 

[dsr-burnley]

Of course. The MP hasn't though.

The theory doesn't stand up. If it did we would get rid of the flu virus, let it spread around unrestricted, and then it wouldn't mutate and we would not get flu the next year because we would all be immune to the only mutant in town - last year's mutant.

It's not a one or other. There's no reason to believe that EITHER coronavirus mutates when there is loads of it about OR it mutates when there's little of it about. In fact, it's certain to be both. Mutations are more likely when there's more of it qbout, and mutations are more likely to take hold when there's less of it about. Which do we prefer, smaller numbers of mutations with a greater probability of spreading, or larger numbers with a smaller probabilty?

Didn't the Indian (delta) variant arise when India had a relatively small number of cases? I'm only going off memory there, so I could be wrong.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

It's not a one or other. There's no reason to believe that EITHER coronavirus mutates when there is loads of it about OR it mutates when there's little of it about. In fact, it's certain to be both. Mutations are more likely when there's more of it qbout, and mutations are more likely to take hold when there's less of it about. Which do we prefer, smaller numbers of mutations with a greater probability of spreading, or larger numbers with a smaller probabilty?

Didn't the Indian (delta) variant arise when India had a relatively small number of cases? I'm only going off memory there, so I could be wrong.

I'm less concerned with what I or anyone else believes. I'm more interested in facts or, in the absence of facts, HMG making wise decisions on the basis of reasonable inference. They have a track record of not doing this.

 

[Billy the Fish]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/24/coronavirus-cases-slump-winter-say-scientists/

Very interesting stuff.

Ministers are thought to be holding back from introducing restrictions such as compulsory face masks, working from home and vaccine passports, after seeing projections from several groups which show infections declining rapidly within weeks.

One model, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, suggests that cases will soon peak before falling steeply in the winter months, even without Plan B.
The Telegraph understands that other unpublished models seen by the Government have also shown similar imminent drops, with experts indicating that cases could fall to around 5,000 cases a day before Christmas.

John Edmunds, Professor in the Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the school, a member of Sage and the sub-group SPI-M, said: “When we were doing the work about two weeks ago, the Health Secretary had made it very clear that the government was not planning to introduce Plan B in the near future.
“Our model was projecting that cases would start to decline some time in the autumn.

“However, the model also suggests that cases may start to climb again in the spring, due to a combination of waning immunity and increased contacts.”

Main points to take from this, infections in children are dropping off already and should improve after half term because natural immunity levels will be high. Now the virus is becoming endemic we are simply in a cycle of infection that will ebb and flow over time.

 

[Guinness Boy]

I refuse to believe that anyone on NSC would be such a grade A contempitable **** using a global pandemic to always paint the UK in the worst possible light continually trying to score political points ... what sort of sad w***** would do that?

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Exactly the same type that would blame a global financial crisis on Labour.


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[Klaas]

I refuse to believe that anyone on NSC would be such a grade A contempitable **** using a global pandemic to always paint the UK in the worst possible light continually trying to score political points ... what sort of sad w***** would do that?

Sent from my SM-G970F using Tapatalk

Scoring political points when and however you can? Your specialty that. Pathetic post.

 

[Rodney Thomas]

Seems cases have fallen again, let's hope that trend continues.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

3 days of week on week drops.

Hopefully continues.

 

[Weststander]

[MENTION=522]Kinky Gerbils[/MENTION] and many others, you were correct all along. Period.




This guy knows his pandemic and vaccine onions.
https://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/team/sir-andrew-pollard

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Seems cases have fallen again, let's hope that trend continues.

The number from Wales didn’t come through because of IT failure so it may not be lower.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

The number from Wales didn’t come through because of IT failure so it may not be lower.

Today had 3 days worth of Wales data

There is also the debate to be had if you split the 4 nations up

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

https://www.politico.eu/article/cor...lions-document/amp/?__twitter_impression=true