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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread











crodonilson

crodonilson

He/Him
Jan 17, 2005
14,062
Lyme Regis
Kinky Gerbils said:
Wales are threatening restrictions again

Mark Drakeford has said there are three weeks for Covid rates to drop in Wales, otherwise his cabinet will have to look at restrictions resuming in Wales.


https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/covid-restrictions-rules-mark-drakeford-21998991
Click to expand...

Looking likely that covid passes will be required for pubs in the coming weeks, cinemas now require passes too and working from home bring strongly encouraged. Drakeford and Sturgeon have put BJ to shame over the last 12 months.
 


wehatepalace

wehatepalace

Limbs
NSC Patron
Apr 27, 2004
7,332
Pease Pottage
Currently got covid, nothing more than a cold, in fact less severe than the serious dose of man flu that I suffered a few weeks back, the ONLY reason I tested was because of the close proximity to recovering from the previous cold, you can easily see why it’s spreading around so easily if people are getting such minor symptoms you wouldn’t even think you’d have covid with just a sniffle.
It’s clear to me the vaccines are doing their job and limiting the virus to a minor illness.
 




B

BLOCK F

Well-known member
Feb 26, 2009
6,723
wehatepalace said:
Currently got covid, nothing more than a cold, in fact less severe than the serious dose of man flu that I suffered a few weeks back, the ONLY reason I tested was because of the close proximity to recovering from the previous cold, you can easily see why it’s spreading around so easily if people are getting such minor symptoms you wouldn’t even think you’d have covid with just a sniffle.
It’s clear to me the vaccines are doing their job and limiting the virus to a minor illness.
Click to expand...

My wife had COVID a few weeks ago and like you, she has suffered more from a modest cold in the past.
She only knew she had it because of taking a Lateral Flow Test prior to planning a visit to her mum in hospital.
 










beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
36,014
REACT is the best reference study.
 


Bozza

Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,284
Back in Sussex
beorhthelm said:
REACT is the best reference study.
Click to expand...

We should take note of this bit then, I guess:

Specifically, we observed a fall and then rise in swab-positivity during the same period in 2020 (round 6, mid-October to early November 2020) [15] suggesting that we should be cautious about any extrapolation of the current downward trend going forward. This is especially so given that the fall in swab-positivity (seen across the entire age range) coincides with the autumn half-term school holidays in England when social mixing patterns will have changed.​

tl;dr: this happened at the same time last year, then it all turned to shit.
 




dazzer6666

dazzer6666

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Mar 27, 2013
55,530
Burgess Hill
Bozza said:
We should take note of this bit then, I guess:

Specifically, we observed a fall and then rise in swab-positivity during the same period in 2020 (round 6, mid-October to early November 2020) [15] suggesting that we should be cautious about any extrapolation of the current downward trend going forward. This is especially so given that the fall in swab-positivity (seen across the entire age range) coincides with the autumn half-term school holidays in England when social mixing patterns will have changed.​

tl;dr: this happened at the same time last year, then it all turned to shit.
Click to expand...

….before anyone was vaccinated?
 








Bozza

Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,284
Back in Sussex
Weststander said:
THE crucial additional piece of info :thumbsup:
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...but with....

- Many millions who have refused to take it up (yes, yes - it's their fault etc, but they will choke up hospitals for the rest of society)
- Rapidly waning immunity among the vaxxed, with a slower-than-ideal booster programme

The latter point is illustrated by over 3,000 double-jabbed 70+ year-olds ending up in hospital over the last four weeks, with over 2,000 of them losing their lives.

I'm not saying the shit is about to hit the fan - clearly I have no idea. Despite JVT's quite grave warnings just yesterday, it's all best guess stuff right now, but I'm primarily taking note of REACT themselves stating caution with regards to trying to predict what is to come.
 




D

dsr-burnley

Well-known member
Aug 15, 2014
2,625
Bozza said:
The latter point is illustrated by over 3,000 double-jabbed 70+ year-olds ending up in hospital over the last four weeks, with over 2,000 of them losing their lives.
.
Click to expand...
I think you're mixing up two sets of figures there. I don't know where your 3,000 double jabbed in hospital comes from, but I can find the figures for over 70's who died in the last four reported weeks (to 22nd October) is 2,149. What I don't think is right is your assertion that those over 2,000 were all double-jabbed and had all been in hospital. I think a much higher proportion of the 3,000 in hospital survived, and that many of the 2,000+ who died, did not go to hospital.
 


Weststander

Weststander

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
69,263
Withdean area
Bozza said:
...but with....

- Many millions who have refused to take it up (yes, yes - it's their fault etc, but they will choke up hospitals for the rest of society)
- Rapidly waning immunity among the vaxxed, with a slower-than-ideal booster programme

The latter point is illustrated by over 3,000 double-jabbed 70+ year-olds ending up in hospital over the last four weeks, with over 2,000 of them losing their lives.

I'm not saying the shit is about to hit the fan - clearly I have no idea. Despite JVT's quite grave warnings just yesterday, it's all best guess stuff right now, but I'm primarily taking note of REACT themselves stating caution with regards to trying to predict what is to come.
Click to expand...

I was more concerned a few weeks ago at the height of “failed booster programme” headlines in certain (the usual) newspapers and the zero Covid scientists eg in Independent Sage who were given huge exposure, without a media explanation that the true scientists are not in unison.

Since then, the booster programme amongst the vulnerable and old is running well.

It’s not explained in the media that many in those categories aren’t quite at the time when advised to have the booster eg my asthmatic daughter … we’ve waited and tomorrow’s the day. So many, many millions are still well within their 6 months post jab 2. Booster numbers will relentlessly increase.

Then there are many millions now, especially in the child to age 30 category, who have natural immunity. I don’t wade through scientific articles, instead relying on secondhand information from eg Linda Bauld and Chris Smith. It’s been explained, correct me if I’m wrong, that getting the virus leads to a longer lasting immunity.

The talk of vast numbers of kids, teens and twenties being stricken forever with Long Covid didn’t materialise.

My wife practises at Worthing Hospital, their numbers have been up for a month or two now, but they haven’t been overwhelmed at all by Covid. Dame Marianne Griffiths emails the entire staff, covering Brighton to Chichester to Haywards Heath, the Covid metrics on a weekly basis. Cancer and other medical needs are being met, elective surgeries carry on, my own minor surgery booked for early December is on track.

I look for positives and tentatively at this I don’t see a repeat of last November to February.

My underlying slight concern is an entirely separate one, that a new and powerful variant might turn the world upside down again. Independent Sage, yes them again, thought the UK would becomes THE world’s petri-dish this summer with the opening up. Out of 200 countries, how strange that they Independent Sage said that about us, when Covid has had pretty much a free rein in Brazil and elsewhere from day one.
 
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