LamieRobertson
Not awoke
Nice of SAGE to ratchet up the fear factor
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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GingerBeerMan
- Start date
Nice of SAGE to ratchet up the fear factor
crodonilson
He/Him
I think with SAGE coming out so clearly now about the imminent need for lockdown, and all of the key metrics going in the wrong direction much like this time last year his hand is about to be forced.
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
‘Peaking’ is worst case, not best case
Ye but that would go against his daily trolling instincts
crodonilson
He/Him
‘Peaking’ is worst case, not best case
[tweet]1471915722221789193[/tweet]
No, no, no.
3,000 peak is 'best case' without further interventions many models are gravely worse than this.
His own party won’t support it. SAGE modelling has been suspect throughout. The public won’t comply. It’s too early to comment on ‘all key metrics’. Even your buddy Prof DoomWhitty said as much yesterday to MPs.
Move to Wales or Scotland.
Talk me through the accuracy of those models so far……….
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
This must be a first from YouGov…looks as if they didn’t consult the Crodos
It comes after a poll suggested that the public are tiring of restrictions. A YouGov survey for The Times newspaper found that a majority of people would not back pubs, restaurants or non-essential shops being shut or bans on meeting people from other households.
Then we have this
UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) consistently warned this week that omicron infections were doubling every 1.9 days. But a methodology memo published quietly by the UKHSA on Thursday states it is now wrong to assume that the doubling rate will remain constant, and so should no longer be used.
A spokesman said the figure had given a “useful snapshot” to “emphasise the scale” at which omicron was spreading, but argued that increased mask wearing and working from home had altered the forecast. The UKHSA could not give an up-to-date estimate of infections.
It comes after a poll suggested that the public are tiring of restrictions. A YouGov survey for The Times newspaper found that a majority of people would not back pubs, restaurants or non-essential shops being shut or bans on meeting people from other households.
Oh dear modelling wrong
On Friday, new modelling by Imperial College was also criticised for failing to take into account real-world data from South Africa showing that omicron is causing fewer deaths and hospitalisations, and leading to shorter stays in hospital even for the oldest and most vulnerable.
Imperial warned that the risk of reinfection with the omicron variant is 5.4 times greater than that of the delta variant, although latest UKHSA real-world data suggests it is closer to three times.
Blimey then there is this ..
The Imperial modelling suggests that in countries with high vaccination rates – such as Britain – an omicron wave could bring nearly 5,000 deaths a day – three times as many as the January wave. However, experts said this was unlikely.
Professor James Naismith, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, said: “We can be confident that the double and especially triple vaccinated have protection against serious disease.
“As a result, the number of hospitalisations per 1000 infections of omicron will be significantly lower than the first wave. Better medicines and treatments will help too.”
Course models can be different
Imperial’s own data, which looked at more than 200,000 cases between November 29 and December 11 also showed that the risk of needing hospital attention from omicron was 0.15 per cent compared to 0.66 per cent compared to delta – four times less.
The Imperial model also states that a booster jab may only give 80 per cent protection against hospitalisation. However, models released last weekend by London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine state it could be anywhere between 84 per cent and 97 per cent.
I’d add that apparently they do still need more data for either to be accurate
…..can’t add more as I might get told off
It comes after a poll suggested that the public are tiring of restrictions. A YouGov survey for The Times newspaper found that a majority of people would not back pubs, restaurants or non-essential shops being shut or bans on meeting people from other households.
Then we have this
UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) consistently warned this week that omicron infections were doubling every 1.9 days. But a methodology memo published quietly by the UKHSA on Thursday states it is now wrong to assume that the doubling rate will remain constant, and so should no longer be used.
A spokesman said the figure had given a “useful snapshot” to “emphasise the scale” at which omicron was spreading, but argued that increased mask wearing and working from home had altered the forecast. The UKHSA could not give an up-to-date estimate of infections.
It comes after a poll suggested that the public are tiring of restrictions. A YouGov survey for The Times newspaper found that a majority of people would not back pubs, restaurants or non-essential shops being shut or bans on meeting people from other households.
Oh dear modelling wrong
On Friday, new modelling by Imperial College was also criticised for failing to take into account real-world data from South Africa showing that omicron is causing fewer deaths and hospitalisations, and leading to shorter stays in hospital even for the oldest and most vulnerable.
Imperial warned that the risk of reinfection with the omicron variant is 5.4 times greater than that of the delta variant, although latest UKHSA real-world data suggests it is closer to three times.
Blimey then there is this ..
The Imperial modelling suggests that in countries with high vaccination rates – such as Britain – an omicron wave could bring nearly 5,000 deaths a day – three times as many as the January wave. However, experts said this was unlikely.
Professor James Naismith, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, said: “We can be confident that the double and especially triple vaccinated have protection against serious disease.
“As a result, the number of hospitalisations per 1000 infections of omicron will be significantly lower than the first wave. Better medicines and treatments will help too.”
Course models can be different
Imperial’s own data, which looked at more than 200,000 cases between November 29 and December 11 also showed that the risk of needing hospital attention from omicron was 0.15 per cent compared to 0.66 per cent compared to delta – four times less.
The Imperial model also states that a booster jab may only give 80 per cent protection against hospitalisation. However, models released last weekend by London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine state it could be anywhere between 84 per cent and 97 per cent.
I’d add that apparently they do still need more data for either to be accurate
…..can’t add more as I might get told off
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‘Peaking’ is worst case, not best case
Sadly I think many will get the wish for a lockdown.
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,625
Yes. Remember that this model is putting 3,000 at the absolute low end of the figures. High end is probably, based on last summer's modelling, about 10,000 per day, and that's not an absolute peak, just a probable peak.
As a comparative, remember the model that SAGE used in September to predict the October cases? Worst case scenario was for 10-15,000 hospitalisations per day, but they said that was highly unlikely. What they said was most likely was that cases would be between 2,000-7,000 per day if no new measures were introduced immediately. It's an enormous range, too wide to be really useful, but that's the best they could do for a likely scenario because there are so many uncertainties.
They did produce another scenario, which again they decided was highly unlikely, where if all went far better than expected and they were wrong in some of their assumptions, the number of cases could be restricted (as an absolute low point, possibility close to zero of being any less) of 1,200.
So there it was. Absolute minimum 1,200, absolute maximum bout 15,000 (it's too far off the graph to read), but ignoring ridiculously extreme scenarios, it would be between 2,000 and 7,000. Which is why I read this figure to be between 3,000 and 10,000 hospitalisations per day, though of course they haven't leaked the report yet.
It may of course adjust our interpretation of the figures when we realise the maximum daily admissions, seven day rolling average, was 1,021. If they produce such a huge range of possibilities and it's still outside their range, then you have to wonder if their model was really relevant. Or indeed, if the model now is really relevant.
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
Apparently there is a darts tournament going on…perhaps one of their dartboards could be put to use by a modeller
Will never get through parliament
Weststander
Well-known member
Many scientists at present like the current rules, where people take personal responsibility on whether they’ll socialise, go to events.
Hospitality and travel are reporting a de facto lockdown due to all the cancellations. For better or worse, the public are being careful.
I wonder if a formal lockdown won’t become necessary at all.
Crodo’s faux mate Sturgeon said this today regarding lockdowns.
“But we shouldn't be fatalistic. We know we can drive it down through behaviour. So let's not see anything as inevitable.”
worthingseagull123
Well-known member
- May 5, 2012
- 2,687
Which many of us will chose to ignore.
Fat Boy Fat
New member
- Aug 21, 2020
- 1,077
Except we’re now a year closer to the end of this crap.
I so hope you are right...
Except we’re now a year closer to the end of this crap.
2?!
With Labour ?
