Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Bozza]

Well if it is true and the booster goes well we won’t have anything to worry about

It depends on what you mean...

As has been the case throughout this, the risk to any of us, individually, remains pretty small particularly if you have no underlying health conditions and are fully-vaxxed up.

But, at a country level, I think there are still grounds for quite serious concern.

I'm absolutely not saying this will happen - and I never have - but I still think that in the first quarter of 2022 there is still a solid chance of the need for any of quite severe societal restrictions such as school closures, hospitality closures, crowd-less football (possibly the temporary cessation of football), hospitals swamped leading to regular care being postponed, right up to and including the lockdowns we have previously experienced.

It still comes down to the same thing: a large number of infections is likely to translate to a lot of people needing hospital care.

Like anyone else, I'm crossing my fingers which I think is a better approach than sticking them into my ears and saying "La la la la, everything will be OK".

 

[Billy the Fish]

No, it's OK - you get thumbs up from #TeamNothingToWorryAbout whilst I don't, so I'll leave yours there to harvest those.

I gave you both a good thumbing

 

[Poojah]

It depends on what you mean...

As has been the case throughout this, the risk to any of us, individually, remains pretty small particularly if you have no underlying health conditions and are fully-vaxxed up.

But, at a country level, I think there are still grounds for quite serious concern.

I'm absolutely not saying this will happen - and I never have - but I still think that in the first quarter of 2022 there is still a solid chance of the need for any of quite severe societal restrictions such as school closures, hospitality closures, crowd-less football (possibly the temporary cessation of football), hospitals swamped leading to regular care being postponed, right up to and including the lockdowns we have previously experienced.

It still comes down to the same thing: a large number of infections is likely to translate to a lot of people needing hospital care.

Like anyone else, I'm crossing my fingers which I think is a better approach than sticking them into my ears and saying "La la la la, everything will be OK".

I’m not disputing the accuracy of your prediction of what may, possibly, happen, but there’s something about this scenario which makes me very uncomfortable. I’m a fit bloke in my mid-30s, and I’ve happily stepped into line and followed all previous lockdown restrictions, not out of fear for my own safety or for that of my wife and kids, but to help other people. People like my mum and dad I suppose. Ultimately, I didn’t very much like the idea of thousands of my countrymen dying every day or our hospitals collapsing.

But that was then. Now, we have a huge layer of protection available to us all (or at least 99.9% of adult society), and we know that generally speaking this works very well. The big question that remains for me is not how many people are being hospitalised, but who - or more to the point, whether they have opted to be vaccinated or not. This data is not 100% up to date, is for the US and is pre-Omnicron, but it shows that an overwhelming majority of people in hospitalised are unvaccinated.



If the same is true of Omicron (and I appreciate we don’t know yet), then I won’t be happy if my kids’ education, not to mention my ability to go to the football or for a pint, is destroyed due to the conscious choices of people not to take a vaccine. I respect their right to decline a vaccine, however in such a dooms day scenario as you predict above their right to freedom and subsequently treatment should be conceded before the freedom of everyone else.

 

[Weststander]

I’m not disputing the accuracy of your prediction of what may, possibly, happen, but there’s something about this scenario which makes me very uncomfortable. I’m a fit bloke in my mid-30s, and I’ve happily stepped into line and followed all previous lockdown restrictions, not out of fear for my own safety or for that of my wife and kids, but to help other people. People like my mum and dad I suppose. Ultimately, I didn’t very much like the idea of thousands of my countrymen dying every day or our hospitals collapsing.

But that was then. Now, we have a huge layer of protection available to us all (or at least 99.9% of adult society), and we know that generally speaking this works very well. The big question that remains for me is not how many people are being hospitalised, but who - or more to the point, whether they have opted to be vaccinated or not. This data is not 100% up to date, is for the US and us pre-Omnicron, but it shows that an overwhelming majority of people in hospitalised are unvaccinated.

View attachment 142624

If the same is true of Omicron (and I appreciate we don’t know yet), then I won’t be happy if my kids’ education, not to mention my ability to go to the football or for a long, is destroyed due to the conscious choices of people not to take a vaccine. I respect their right to decline a vaccine, however in such dooms day scenario as you predict above their right to freedom and subsequently treatment should be conceded before the freedom of everyone else.

In the “Good News” thread I just posted Pfizer’s findings, that three jabs including the booster is the key against Omicron. With the added footnote that scientists don’t yet know if Omicron will cause serious illness in a vaccinated European nation.

If we rack up the booster numbers rapidly to 30m, 40m, hopefully the UK will be set fair whatever. Children and undergraduates will get a real education, be able to freely mix with peers, people actually lead a life.

 

[Bozza]

I’m not disputing the accuracy of your prediction of what may, possibly, happen, but there’s something about this scenario which makes me very uncomfortable. I’m a fit bloke in my mid-30s, and I’ve happily stepped into line and followed all previous lockdown restrictions, not out of fear for my own safety or for that of my wife and kids, but to help other people. People like my mum and dad I suppose. Ultimately, I didn’t very much like the idea of thousands of my countrymen dying every day or our hospitals collapsing.

But that was then. Now, we have a huge layer of protection available to us all (or at least 99.9% of adult society), and we know that generally speaking this works very well. The big question that remains for me is not how many people are being hospitalised, but who - or more to the point, whether they have opted to be vaccinated or not. This data is not 100% up to date, is for the US and us pre-Omnicron, but it shows that an overwhelming majority of people in hospitalised are unvaccinated.

View attachment 142624

If the same is true of Omicron (and I appreciate we don’t know yet), then I won’t be happy if my kids’ education, not to mention my ability to go to the football or for a long, is destroyed due to the conscious choices of people not to take a vaccine. I respect their right to decline a vaccine, however in such dooms day scenario as you predict above their right to freedom and subsequently treatment should be conceded before the freedom of everyone else.

Firstly, I'm absolutely not predicting anything at all!

Like everyone else on here, I imagine, what I want is for this thing to fade away sooner rather than later and for the last 20 months or so to just feel like a rather bad dream not too far from now.

The unvaccinated are a problem, certainly, but there are also a fair number of people (out of the 66m or so that we have) who are living with conditions that mean either they can't take the vaccine or for whom the vaccine offers very little, if any, protection.

But beyond those, there will be many people who have dutifully done all they should, are fully-vaxxed up but, for nothing other than bad luck, a Covid infection could cause them to suffer a severe illness. The vaccines are great, but they are NOT a suit of armour - the virus doesn't just bounce off everyone who has had it unfortunately.

Which is why a large wave of infections could soon become problematic for health services, although it would probably be a short-lived but very sharp peak to get over.

 

[Poojah]

Firstly, I'm absolutely not predicting anything at all!

Like everyone else on here, I imagine, what I want is for this thing to fade away sooner rather than later and for the last 20 months or so to just feel like a rather bad dream not too far from now.

The unvaccinated are a problem, certainly, but there are also a fair number of people (out of the 66m or so that we have) who are living with conditions that mean either they can't take the vaccine or for whom the vaccine offers very little, if any, protection.

But beyond those, there will be many people who have dutifully done all they should, are fully-vaxxed up but, for nothing other than bad luck, a Covid infection could cause them to suffer a severe illness. The vaccines are great, but they are NOT a suit of armour - the virus doesn't just bounce off everyone who has had it unfortunately.

Which is why a large wave of infections could soon become problematic for health services, although it would probably be a short-lived but very sharp peak to get over.

I should have probably written ‘prediction’ in inverted commas, but ultimately it’s a potential scenario not completely outside the realms of possibility. I have no issue with that.

I absolutely feel for those people who are clinically vulnerable or for whatever reason aren’t as protected by vaccines as most people, it must be a horrendous time, and probably even scarier now than it was in lockdown. What the solution is for such people, I am not intelligent enough to even comprehend.

However, I don’t think they’ve ever really been a measuring stick in terms of the pandemic and what action to take, at least not in the broadest sense. Ultimately, lockdowns happen because of hospital load - the government simply cannot let its hospital systems fall over.

To that end, what I am saying is IF Omicron begins to overload the NHS, and IF a sizeable majority of that load is caused by willingly unvaccinated people, then you’re going to have a very hard time selling another lockdown to the the mostly vaccinated population of this country. I’d go as far as saying it would risk causing civil unrest.

The majority cannot be made to suffer for a stubborn minority. That there will be some vulnerable people caught up amidst it all is absolutely tragic (I can’t do it justice with words on a messageboard), but the misfortune of certain individuals has never been the government’s grave concern. It’s a numbers game to them.

 

[Dibdab]

Anyone falling for the need for Plan B now needs to check themselves into simple school. This is classic diversion to dig the tosser out of his almighty mess. It's astounding people are falling for it. His ex-mate Cummings calling it out exactly as it is.

https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1468531753979678725?s=20

 

[Yoda]

And still the data coming out from South Africa is good, not panic stations like SAGE & the UK press. (skip to 3:33 for the real data)

If this data continues to be favourable surely we want Omicron to take over as the dominant variant as quickly as possible, not suppress it?

 

[loz]

Am I correct in thinking there has not be 1 death from the Omicron variant?

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

And still the data coming out from South Africa is good, not panic stations like SAGE & the UK press. (skip to 3:33 for the real data)

If this data continues to be favourable surely we want Omicron to take over as the dominant variant as quickly as possible, not suppress it?

Mildly amusing watching them put the case for restrictions with slides showing less deaths and people in hospital

 

[Bozza]

I should have probably written ‘prediction’ in inverted commas, but ultimately it’s a potential scenario not completely outside the realms of possibility. I have no issue with that.

I absolutely feel for those people who are clinically vulnerable or for whatever reason aren’t as protected by vaccines as most people, it must be a horrendous time, and probably even scarier now than it was in lockdown. What the solution is for such people, I am not intelligent enough to even comprehend.

However, I don’t think they’ve ever really been a measuring stick in terms of the pandemic and what action to take, at least not in the broadest sense. Ultimately, lockdowns happen because of hospital load - the government simply cannot let its hospital systems fall over.

To that end, what I am saying is IF Omicron begins to overload the NHS, and IF a sizeable majority of that load is caused by willingly unvaccinated people, then you’re going to have a very hard time selling another lockdown to the the mostly vaccinated population of this country. I’d go as far as saying it would risk causing civil unrest.

The majority cannot be made to suffer for a stubborn minority. That there will be some vulnerable people caught up amidst it all is absolutely tragic (I can’t do it justice with words on a messageboard), but the misfortune of certain individuals has never been the government’s grave concern. It’s a numbers game to them.

It's a fine idea. I'm not sure how we accomplish that unless we check vaccination status at the entry to hospital....

Infected with Covid? - check. Vaccinated - check. In you come - we'll sort you out. Next...

Got Covid sir? Can I ask if you are vaccinated? Oh you're not? I'm ever so sorry - our hospital is very busy and we don't want to deny life-saving care to those with cancer and heart problems and the like. Unfortunately, we can't see you now - you'll have to go home. So sorry, but good luck!​

...which is clearly not going to happen.

Unvaccinated people will be allowed into hospital to be treated because that's how our country works, and if there is enough of them, then everyone else who needs hospital care may end up feeling the impact in terms of postponed or cancelled treatments.

 

[Bozza]

Mildly amusing watching them put the case for restrictions with slides showing less deaths and people in hospital

Amusing? Really?

Maybe go back to February/March 2020 on this thread and all the comments like...

"Only 23 people have it - what's the fuss about?"

"More people die brushing their teeth than have died of this coronavirus thing - why's everyone making a fuss?

...and much more besides. How did those kind of comments age?

We all KNOW there is a significant lag between infection and hospitalisation and then hospitalisation and death.

But, beyond that, do people really want our scientific leaders to wait until the shit has truly hit the fan before they act? Isn't caution the best approach in the face of a worrying trend, knowing we can quickly row back if things turn out well. The result of not doing anything until later, if the gamble is wrong, is dead bodies.

 

[Bozza]

Anyone falling for the need for Plan B now needs to check themselves into simple school. This is classic diversion to dig the tosser out of his almighty mess. It's astounding people are falling for it. His ex-mate Cummings calling it out exactly as it is.

https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1468531753979678725?s=20

I'd be delighted if it's a diversionary tactic.

Let's check back on this in 6 weeks shall we, and see?

Your theory seems to suggest that Omicron is a fuss over nothing and we should all just carry on as we were. I will be absolutely delighted for you to be right on that call.

 

[Poojah]

Anyone falling for the need for Plan B now needs to check themselves into simple school. This is classic diversion to dig the tosser out of his almighty mess. It's astounding people are falling for it. His ex-mate Cummings calling it out exactly as it is.

https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1468531753979678725?s=20

Do you know what, to a degree I can just about tolerate well meaning incompetence and I can at least accept that many politicians are self-serving and will act in their best interests; that’s just how it is.

But what we have here is the prime minister acting, in my opinion, directly against the very best interests of the country, causing unnecessary fear and anxiety amongst its people and actively harming businesses (particularly those in hospitality, again!), out of nothing other than a desire for distraction and self-preservation. To put your own interests first over those of the entire country that elected you to power is utterly unforgivable.

You can counter me and tell me that Omicron is a major threat to us all and that in acting early, Boris Johnson is simply doing his bit to protect the people of this nation. But this is a man who has repeatedly and consistently locked down too late and unlocked too early, and this sudden about turn in policy contradicts his entire handling of this affair to date. Are we to believe that it is a pure coincidence that it has coincided with arguably the biggest Tory scandal of the pandemic so far?

I honestly can’t buy it for a split second and I really feel that this kind of attempted deceit of our nation is serious, treacherous stuff. The naivety in his thinking however overlooks the fact that whatever he does from here on in, no matter what he does to try and preserve his good name, he is only sealing his fate as the worst political leader in British history.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Amusing? Really?

Maybe go back to February/March 2020 on this thread and all the comments like...

"Only 23 people have it - what's the fuss about?"

"More people die brushing their teeth than have died of this coronavirus thing - why's everyone making a fuss?

...and much more besides. How did those kind of comments age?

We all KNOW there is a significant lag between infection and hospitalisation and then hospitalisation and death.

But, beyond that, do people really want our scientific leaders to wait until the shit has truly hit the fan before they act? Isn't caution the best approach in the face of a worrying trend, knowing we can quickly row back if things turn out well. The result of not doing anything until later, if the gamble is wrong, is dead bodies.

Yes, amusing

We can equally go back to July for comments the other way

 

[Bozza]

Yes, amusing

We can equally go back to July for comments the other way

Indeed. And as I said if we get it wrong by acting early, we row back relieved. (And, let's be clear, Plan B really doesn't make much difference - everything is open, at full capacity and we have to wear a mask now and again.)

If we act late and get it wrong, people die, possibly lots and lots of them.

Which way is best?

I desperately hope these mild ratcheting up of restrictions is an over-creation. That would be the best outcome here.

From the Sage minutes...

14. The faster the growth in infections at the point measures are introduced, the more admissions will increase in the period between action being taken and the number of admissions being affected. With lags of the order of two or more weeks, and doubling times of the order of three days, it is likely that, once hospitalisations begin to increase at a rate similar to that of cases, four doublings (a 16-fold increase) or more could already be “in the system” before interventions that slow infections are reflected in hospitalisations.​

The main thing I'll take away from this pandemic is how most people really don't understand exponential growth.

 

[Bozza]

Do you know what, to a degree I can just about tolerate well meaning incompetence and I can at least accept that many politicians are self-serving and will act in their best interests; that’s just how it is.

But what we have here is the prime minister acting, in my opinion, directly against the very best interests of the country, causing unnecessary fear and anxiety amongst its people and actively harming businesses (particularly those in hospitality, again!), out of nothing other than a desire for distraction and self-preservation. To put your own interests first over those of the entire country that elected you to power is utterly unforgivable.

You can counter me and tell me that Omicron is a major threat to us all and that in acting early, Boris Johnson is simply doing his bit to protect the people of this nation. But this is a man who has repeatedly and consistently locked down too late and unlocked too early, and this sudden about turn in policy contradicts his entire handling of this affair to date. Are we to believe that it is a pure coincidence that it has coincided with arguably the biggest Tory scandal of the pandemic so far?

I honestly can’t buy it for a split second and I really feel that this kind of attempted deceit of our nation is serious, treacherous stuff. The naivety in his thinking however overlooks the fact that whatever he does from here on in, no matter what he does to try and preserve his good name, he is only sealing his fate as the worst political leader in British history.

I hope you're right - that will be amazing for all of us. Fingers crossed.

 

[Bozza]

A renowned epidemiologist writes...

[tweet]1468180742995947524[/tweet]

 

[Poojah]

I hope you're right - that will be amazing for all of us. Fingers crossed.

My point was less about the threat posed by Omicron and more about the panicked “look over there” tactic deployed by Johnson in order to divert attention away from a scandal which last night was being talked about as his potential demise and tonight has been largely forgotten about. It’s done the trick.

These measures may yet turn out to be right or wrong; I’m not one to dismiss the severity or unpredictably of this virus (I was the one being mocked by my colleagues in February last year for my “end is nigh” melodrama), but I don’t believe for a minute that today’s decision has been taken, today, for anyone’s sake but Boris Johnson and his mates.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Indeed. And as I said if we get it wrong by acting early, we row back relieved. (And, let's be clear, Plan B really doesn't make much difference - everything is open, at full capacity and we have to wear a mask now and again.)

If we act late and get it wrong, people die, possibly lots and lots of them.

Which way is best?

I desperately hope these mild ratcheting up of restrictions is an over-creation. That would be the best outcome here.

From the Sage minutes...

14. The faster the growth in infections at the point measures are introduced, the more admissions will increase in the period between action being taken and the number of admissions being affected. With lags of the order of two or more weeks, and doubling times of the order of three days, it is likely that, once hospitalisations begin to increase at a rate similar to that of cases, four doublings (a 16-fold increase) or more could already be “in the system” before interventions that slow infections are reflected in hospitalisations.​

The main thing I'll take away from this pandemic is how most people really don't understand exponential growth.

These restrictions are a nothing, doesn’t overly bother me - with the exception of the WFH order (but you can still go to parties) they won’t make much of a difference.

Even the vaccine passports (which I think are a good idea as a nudge) is thrown in just because and not done correctly - as I said months ago when they had them just for football grounds you have more tighter gathering spots without them than with them - there is no science behind it.

This is a diversion from the parties, what has changed in less than 24 hours from going from nothing in the data to rolling out plan B - when actually the news on the vaccines has been better than expected

The good data comparing from South Africa is comparing deaths/Hospitalisations to the previous delta wave - which is currently lower 8% v 25%

Currently 95 percent of over 16s in the UK have antibodies

But this is it now, every new variant we will be faced with restrictions and potential rumoured lockdown.

I’ve finished work for the day now, so I wish you a good evening.