Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

I am asking this questions without prejudice (well, except for bring a concerned father):

Anyone have any views (positive, negative or neutral) about the rise in covid hospitalisations among children in South Africa that's linked to the omicron variant? And what this might mean for future of the pandemic and how we handle it?

There were similar stories about the delta variant sending more children to hospital in the USA too but there didn't seem to be any report about rises in deaths.

We don't know what the health demographic of the children being admitted is, are they living with co-morbidity? Also if hospitalisations are low then the threshold for being admitted to hospital may be lower, so the people in hospital aren't as sick as those in hospital at the height of the earlier waves. This could mean children who would have been treated at home then are now in hospital as beds are available and they can be treated better in hospital. Without more detailed information about those children in hospital it's difficult to know what it means, but as always the media headlines will look to sensationalise the situation.

This report says there is a hugely concerning rise in numbers but gives no further numbers, but goes for the shock value by mentioning a 15 year old dying. (https://inews.co.uk/news/world/omic...covid-strain-young-children-hospitals-1337840)

These two reports mention cases being mild, so a lot less sensationalist in their headlines and also quotes about doctors wanting to treat children in hospital for a day or two as a precaution rather than because they are seriously ill, but airing caution because there isn't enough data yet to fully understand what is happening.

https://news.sky.com/story/south-af...-in-omicron-epicentre-but-cases-mild-12486132

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/wor...ren-mild-hospital-covid-pandemic-b970334.html

 

[Rodney Thomas]

From what I've read South Africa authorities are currently investigating it. It only appears to be in some provinces and they are not yet sure if the kids are hospitalised for different reasons and picking up Covid, if it is precaution in areas where they have a lot of available hospital beds or if Omicron is indeed causing sickness in kiddos. We'll know more in a week or two.

A fair assessment at the moment for sure. It seems to correlate with what Dr. Fauci also said in an interview I watched this morning. It might indeed be sown to precautionary admissions due to high capacity right now or due to incidental diagnosis (although that could have also happened in previous waves but I didn't in any significant numbers - at least at hospital level).

I haven't seen anyone quote any numbers. It may be that just 1 or 2 extra children turn up in hospital with coronavirs - and they might well be turning up with a broken leg and not know they have coronavirus - would probably skew the stats and raise flag.

As a comparison, the number of cases of hospital admission of children under 17 with coronavirus, in the UK for the last four weeks, is about 2,500, which is 2 per hospital trust per week. That's a very low base to count from, and remember it includes admissions for all reasons including those where covid is incidental or irrelevant. It's a low enough number that if any one area doubles or trebles, it is likely to be random rather than have a particular cause. They need more data before deciding if this particular issue even exists.

(As an aside, the majority of UK hospital trusts have literally not seen a child death from or with coronavirus, because there have been 104 deaths age under 20 and there are 223 hospital trusts.)

Yeah, I'm aware of the stats in the UK up to now with current variants. Maybe this will turn out to be no different with omicron but there are some figures coming out of South Africa which are different (not I am not saying worse per say) than the ones you have outline above:

"Ntsakisi Maluleke, a public health specialist in the Gauteng province that includes Tshwane and the biggest city Johannesburg, told Reuters that out of the 1,511 COVID-positive patients in hospitals in the province 113 were under 9 years old, a greater proportion than during previous waves of infection"(1)

"Dr Rudo Mathivha, head of Intensive Care at Chris Hani Baragwanath hospital, said the shift in demographics is very worrying as the number of sick patients presenting to hospitals has increased exponentially. Dr Mathivha said the hospital is reportedly admitting around 5-10 children at a time."(2)

Again, I am certainly not panicking but genuinely interested in what everyone currently left posting on this thread think (the outright deniers seems to have disappeared or been banned).



(1) https://www.reuters.com/world/afric...-with-covid-19-is-not-cause-panic-2021-12-04/
(2) https://www.news.com.au/technology/...s/news-story/0647b966791165a344734263ab0a5324

 

[The Clamp]

I can’t find the stats (I’ll have a look) but I read that the majority of people with the new variant are going into hospital for other reasons, get tested and are found to have it with no ill effects.

I hope it’s a fast spreader. Let’s all get some heightened immunity to it quickly and let the subsequent variants do the same, they will weaken over time and hardly bother us. Virus’s just what to live unnoticed in our noses and throats. Let it be.

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

I can’t find the stats (I’ll have a look) but I read that the majority of people with the new variant are going into hospital for other reasons, get tested and are found to have it with no ill effects.

I hope it’s a fast spreader. Let’s all get some heightened immunity to it quickly and let the subsequent variants do the same, they will weaken over time and hardly bother us. Virus’s just what to live unnoticed in our noses and throats. Let it be.

A few days ago it was said that 76% of people in hospital in South Africa were for incidental covid according to tweets mentioned in these two posts.

https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/show...ion-Thread&p=10087305&viewfull=1#post10087305

https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/show...ion-Thread&p=10088813&viewfull=1#post10088813

 

[The Clamp]

A few days ago it was said that 76% of people in hospital in South Africa were for incidental covid according to tweets mentioned in these two posts.

https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/show...ion-Thread&p=10087305&viewfull=1#post10087305

https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/show...ion-Thread&p=10088813&viewfull=1#post10088813

Many thanks

 

[dazzer6666]

Meanwhile, another expert is scaring the horses..............note use of 'could have', 'probably'..and 'guess' Oh - and then if you've got a sniffle, you should isolate.

The UK could have more cases of omicron than some countries on the travel red list, Professor Tim Spector has said.

The professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College London told BBC Breakfast: "The official estimates are about 350-odd Omicron cases, and because the current testing is missing a lot of those, it's probably at least 1,000 to 2,000 I would guess at the moment.

"And we are expecting this to be doubling about every two days at the moment, so if you do your maths - say assumed it's 1,000 at the moment, and you think it's going to be doubling every two days, you can see that those numbers are going to be pretty (high) certainly in about 10 days time.

"By that time, we'll probably have more cases than they will in some of those African countries.”

...and separately

The founder of the Zoe Covid study app Tim Spector has said that people should isolate for a least a few days if they have cold-like symptoms such as a sniffle or sore throat

People with cold-like symptoms should work from home and avoid Christmas parties, a leading expert has said.

The founder of the Zoe Covid study app Tim Spector has said that people should isolate for a least a few days if they have cold-like symptoms such as a sniffle or sore throat.

His remarks come as an infectious disease expert said vulnerable people and those who are unvaccinated should think twice about attending work parties this month.

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Mr Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London, said the UK should “get more people to isolate at least for a few days with cold-like symptoms”.

“At the moment, we’re estimating that somewhere between one and three and one in four colds are actually due to Covid,” he told Times Radio.

 

[Billy the Fish]

Copied from the GNT

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-n...icron-outbreak-appears-mild-say-norway-covid/

As many as 120 people who attended the Louise Restaurant and Bar on the night of November 26th have now tested positive for coronavirus, about half of whom have screened positive for omicron, with 13 of those proven to have the variant in sequencing.

"They have symptoms like fever, cough, headache, muscle pain, fatigue, but for now, none of them has become severely ill, and none of them have been treated in hospital," Tine Ravlo, the Oslo infectious disease doctor responsible, told The Telegraph.
*****
Norway's state epidemiologist, Frode Forland, said that the sheer number of people infected at a single event added to evidence that omicron was considerably more infectious than the delta variant.

 

[crodonilson]

Copied from the GNT

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-n...icron-outbreak-appears-mild-say-norway-covid/

This is the issue, the measures in place to keep the virus roughly in equilibrium, putting severe stress on the NHS but not making it buckle, will simply not be enough with the far more contageous omicron variant. The saving grace may be it is not as likely to cause severe illness if we are unfortunate to come into contact with it but we should remember only a very small fraction of a massive amount of cases could still result in a lot of hospitalisations in a very short period.

 

[dazzer6666]

This is the issue, the measures in place to keep the virus roughly in equilibrium, putting severe stress on the NHS but not making it buckle, will simply not be enough with the far more contageous omicron variant. The saving grace may be it is not as likely to cause severe illness if we are unfortunate to come into contact with it but we should remember only a very small fraction of a massive amount of cases could still result in a lot of hospitalisations in a very short period.

It could, but you're speculating - we don't know, hence the current step-back with additional measures re masks, tests to travel etc. Equally, if virtually all cases are asymptomatic to very mild, we're out of the pandemic. Let's wait and see - we'll know by Christmas I suspect.

 

[The Clamp]

This is the issue, the measures in place to keep the virus roughly in equilibrium, putting severe stress on the NHS but not making it buckle, will simply not be enough with the far more contageous omicron variant. The saving grace may be it is not as likely to cause severe illness if we are unfortunate to come into contact with it but we should remember only a very small fraction of a massive amount of cases could still result in a lot of hospitalisations in a very short period.

You really are the tunnel at the end of the light

 

[vegster]

In the UK there’s also throughout been an element of:
- grumpy old sods not wanting young adults to have a life, to party.
- not giving a care for business owners.
- hate going to work, hoping for a full blown lockdown with ££££ furlough.
- not giving a care about other peoples kids missing out on real education and friends.
- people sitting pretty on fixed income who aren’t into overseas travel.

In my defence I would say yes, I'm a bit grumpy but for good reason.

I have no problem with youngsters going out and having a good time, it does not interfere in my life in any way, i do pity them paying £5 + for a pint of Carlingsberg or whatever, poor sods.

Yes, business owners in some sectors are struggling and thats catastrophic for those that have put their heart and soul in to a business venture, hopefully they can recover.

I hate going to work, but there is NO furlough now and if I catch Covid and have to isolate i will only get the bare minimum government sick pay as there is NO official sick pay from my company. If your face fits and you have an odd day sick the boss sometimes says " I'll pay you for that day off as i know you must have felt like shite not to make it in but....don't tell the others "

I do care deeply about education, Mrs V is a supply teacher now and alas if she gets covid, she can't work and yes, she will only get the government minimum too. So, there will be two of us missing out financially as we self isolate together.

Finally , if we get a surge in cases that leads to restrictions at Christmas, Mrs v's elderly and vulnerable mother will be relying on her care workers to pop in and microwave her a ready meal on Christmas day and Boxing day which is a miserable way to live.

I just wish that facemask wearing had been kept as mandatory in shops and enclosed public spaces and public transport for longer, it might just have kept a lid on things long enough for the vaccine to limit transmissions, mutations and hospitalisations.

 

[Weststander]

In my defence I would say yes, I'm a bit grumpy but for good reason.

I have no problem with youngsters going out and having a good time, it does not interfere in my life in any way, i do pity them paying £5 + for a pint of Carlingsberg or whatever, poor sods.

Yes, business owners in some sectors are struggling and thats catastrophic for those that have put their heart and soul in to a business venture, hopefully they can recover.

I hate going to work, but there is NO furlough now and if I catch Covid and have to isolate i will only get the bare minimum government sick pay as there is NO official sick pay from my company. If your face fits and you have an odd day sick the boss sometimes says " I'll pay you for that day off as i know you must have felt like shite not to make it in but....don't tell the others "

I do care deeply about education, Mrs V is a supply teacher now and alas if she gets covid, she can't work and yes, she will only get the government minimum too. So, there will be two of us missing out financially as we self isolate together.

Finally , if we get a surge in cases that leads to restrictions at Christmas, Mrs v's elderly and vulnerable mother will be relying on her care workers to pop in and microwave her a ready meal on Christmas day and Boxing day which is a miserable way to live.

I just wish that facemask wearing had been kept as mandatory in shops and enclosed public spaces and public transport for longer, it might just have kept a lid on things long enough for the vaccine to limit transmissions, mutations and hospitalisations.

I never had you in mind or any nsc’er.

Just various folk who’d called Nicky Campbell, Jeremy Vine or LBC over the last 20 months, with tunnel vision for full lockdowns. Some, even as young as 20’s, admitted they’d “done their working bit and were entitled to a year or two off on furlough”. People without school age kids demanding that all schools and uni’s close “until Covid is 100% beaten”. I saw depression from kids cooped up at home for months. An interesting discussion on tv last week where uni lecturers (not your average laissez faire, right wing types) agreed that students had been deprived of the real learning experience, of the nuances that can only be gained in face to face lectures, seminars and tutorials.

Campbell took a chilling call during Lockdown 1 from some northerner who “hoped that the lockdown caused all the Italian and Indian restaurants in his city to go bust”.

I really believe that some grumps on guaranteed income and not into travel, saw lockdowns and restrictions as a way to hurt sections of society they were envious of or hated.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1468322626401669125?s=20

Time to get vaccinated even if you’ve had the vid

Sounds like gov are 50/50 over vaccine passports - get them out

 

[crodonilson]

[tweet]1467944188000014340[/tweet]

Prof Christina Pagel projecting 90k cases and rising by Xmas.

 

[Bozza]

[tweet]1467944188000014340[/tweet]

Prof Christina Pagel projecting 90k cases and rising by Xmas.

It's not a prediction (just getting that in before a certain group make a diary note to come back and rubbish it at Christmas).

Oliver Johnson, who churns the numbers on this kind of thing, picked up on that tweet earlier, disagreed with it and explained why. If you expand the various replies, you'll see Pagel came back with "basically I was just trying to see what might happen to omicron over next few weeks and what different growth rates with look like.".

Anyway, Johnson's tweet thread on it is here: [tweet]1468143142427889672[/tweet]

 

[Bozza]

In other news, the first study on Omicron is in.

Tweet from the lead scientist here (open for chain of tweet) : https://twitter.com/sigallab/status/1468325159501287434

Pre-print of the paper here: https://www.ahri.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/MEDRXIV-2021-267417v1-Sigal.pdf

Slightly more layman's summary thread here (open for chain of tweets): https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1468348689055891456?s=20

Seems to be a relatively limited initial study looking at impact on Pfizer double-jabbed and Pzifer double-jabbed and also prior infection. Suggestion seems to be Omicron is good at escaping immunity, with double-jabbed losing a LOT of protection but double-jabbed and infection do better. Hope is that will be replicated in double-jabbed and boosted. (My interpretation might be off though - DYOR etc)

 

[Bozza]

You wait for a bus and then two...

Second study also in.

Tweet from one of the lead scientists here (open for full thread etc): https://twitter.com/BenjMurrell/status/1468341478363746310?s=20

Paper here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CuxmNYj5cpIuxWXhjjVmuDqntxXwlfXQ/view

Summary conclusion seems more optimistic than the above. Omicron still able to escape immunity but not by such a great extent as in the first study.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

In other news, the first study on Omicron is in.

Tweet from the lead scientist here (open for chain of tweet) : https://twitter.com/sigallab/status/1468325159501287434

Pre-print of the paper here: https://www.ahri.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/MEDRXIV-2021-267417v1-Sigal.pdf

Slightly more layman's summary thread here (open for chain of tweets): https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1468348689055891456?s=20

Seems to be a relatively limited initial study looking at impact on Pfizer double-jabbed and Pzifer double-jabbed and also prior infection. Suggestion seems to be Omicron is good at escaping immunity, with double-jabbed losing a LOT of protection but double-jabbed and infection do better. Hope is that will be replicated in double-jabbed and boosted. (My interpretation might be off though - DYOR etc)

So opening up on the 19th looks like a good choice, the UKs immunity via infection must be large numbers.

They seem to suggest protection still against death/serious illness

 

[Bozza]

In other news, the first study on Omicron is in.

Tweet from the lead scientist here (open for chain of tweet) : https://twitter.com/sigallab/status/1468325159501287434

Pre-print of the paper here: https://www.ahri.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/MEDRXIV-2021-267417v1-Sigal.pdf

Slightly more layman's summary thread here (open for chain of tweets): https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1468348689055891456?s=20

Seems to be a relatively limited initial study looking at impact on Pfizer double-jabbed and Pzifer double-jabbed and also prior infection. Suggestion seems to be Omicron is good at escaping immunity, with double-jabbed losing a LOT of protection but double-jabbed and infection do better. Hope is that will be replicated in double-jabbed and boosted. (My interpretation might be off though - DYOR etc)

The media wasting no time to create scare headlines about something they don't really understand: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/pfizer-vaccine-omicron-variant-covid-b1971679.html

 

[dsr-burnley]

[tweet]1467944188000014340[/tweet]

Prof Christina Pagel projecting 90k cases and rising by Xmas.

It's lucky she stopped the growth at Christmas. Because that projection extended to New Year's Day rises to 250k per day, by 8th January we're over 1 million per day, 8th January it's 4.6m, and it only takes until 20th January before everyone in the country is catching this disease every day.

When will they realise that graphs illustrating growth like this, without giving any clue as to when the growth will slow down and what the peak might be, are pointless. It's not science, it's just a way of spreading fear. If, as she claims, it is just a way of illustrating how exponential growth works, then why not draw a graph showing how exponential growth works, as opposed to one showing that there might be 100,000 cases per day at Christmas.

The other thing - she says it's a "very conservative" assumption to say that delta variant will continue at zero growth, as it has done for the past 5 months or so. Even if you carefully select the dates to get the very highest possible rise in cases, you don't get close to 1% growth per day. She seems to be assuming that omicron will supplant delta as the dominant variant while at the same time delta will not be affected by omicron - that isn't what normally happens. as a new dominant variant appears, the old one fizzles out. That isn't what happened with delta/alpha. If she wants to assume that there is statistical independence between the numbers infected by delta and the number infected by omicron - ie. that the new omicron variant has no effect whatsoever on delta - then she ought at least to give her reasons.