Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Yoda]

I don't think anyone is arguing that one of the few saving graces of the pandemic is that children rarely die from it but they can get very ill from it and we don't fully understand long covid. There is a debate to be had about vaccinating children, although with the US going down that route it is hardly an out there idea if not done with AZ.

What we do know about long covid, is the older you are the more likely you are to suffer from it. I also read an extract that said on average, most people were 35+.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/us-post/long-covid
Who is most likely to get long COVID?
The researchers discovered that older people are much more likely to get long COVID than younger people, although it does occur across all ages. Long COVID affects around 10% of 18-49 year olds who become unwell with COVID-19, rising to 22% of over 70s. Weight also plays a role, with people developing long COVID having a slightly higher average BMI than those with short COVID.

Although men are more likely to be admitted to hospital with COVID-19, women appear to be slightly more likely to suffer from long COVID than men (14.5% compared with 9.5%), but only in the younger age group.

The researchers also found that people with asthma were more likely to develop long COVID, although there were no clear links to any other underlying health conditions.

Importantly, the more symptoms a person had in the first week, the more likely they were to go on to develop long COVID.

 

[Billy the Fish]

Once again, I'm NOT saying it it the solution, but it IS a halfway house between your scenarios of "unlock all the things now" and "lock everything up forever".

Maybe there will be variants of concern, maybe there won't. We'd have to see. Most of those involved with vaccines at a technical level and know what they're talking about, ie neither you nor me, seem to have relatively high confidence that the vaccines we have will prove effective at most mutations that could come our way. Further more when variants do emerge, it seems to be a relatively quick process to asses vaccine effectiveness against them in a lab. So, if everyone who wants to be vaccinated has had the chance to have both jabs and develop full protection, then we'd be as well-placed as we could be to deal with any such VOCs. Quite unlike now.

*Most* children are only mildly-affected by Covid, fortunately, but not all. Some will die but many, many more will suffer long-term, possible life-long, debilitating symptoms from "long Covid". I guess crossing our fingers that our own kids are amongst the lucky ones is a reasonable tactic though.

I understand what you're saying and I can't disagree with any of it. On reflection maybe I just don't see it as a viable option and I'm putting the halfway house in the "restrictions forever" bracket.

 

[e77]

What we do know about long covid, is the older you are the more likely you are to suffer from it. I also read an extract that said on average, most people were 35+.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/us-post/long-covid
Who is most likely to get long COVID?
The researchers discovered that older people are much more likely to get long COVID than younger people, although it does occur across all ages. Long COVID affects around 10% of 18-49 year olds who become unwell with COVID-19, rising to 22% of over 70s. Weight also plays a role, with people developing long COVID having a slightly higher average BMI than those with short COVID.

Although men are more likely to be admitted to hospital with COVID-19, women appear to be slightly more likely to suffer from long COVID than men (14.5% compared with 9.5%), but only in the younger age group.

The researchers also found that people with asthma were more likely to develop long COVID, although there were no clear links to any other underlying health conditions.

Importantly, the more symptoms a person had in the first week, the more likely they were to go on to develop long COVID.

Skimming through that article it is 10% of 18-49 year olds versus 22% for the over 70s who get Covid go on to suffer Long Covid (although there are other factors such as BMI). As we are still in a window where younger people aren't fully vaccinated so presumably will be a fair chunk of the 100,000 people a day being infected the cases might begin to stack up in the weeks, months and years to come.

We were always going to have an exit wave and there are good arguments for letting it happen now as opposed to Autumn but if I was a 25 year old shop worker who had been vaccinated once and went on to catch Covid which want on to be long Covid I would feel fairly aggrieved.

 

[e77]

I understand what you're saying and I can't disagree with any of it. On reflection maybe I just don't see it as a viable option and I'm putting the halfway house in the "restrictions forever" bracket.

TBF it is more 'restrictions for a bit longer' rather than 'restrictions forever'.

 

[beorhthelm]

However the undisputed downside of the new plan is more people, adult and child, will get ill. In the overwhelming amount of cases not seriously but when your are talking 100,000 a day some will.

I see the benefits of doing it now as opposed to autumn time when virtually everyone who wanted one would be vaccinated. But can we please start acknowledging there is a downside and not hide being cliches like 'this ends now' and 'personal responsibility'.

would you stop the 100k a day prediction?

 

[darkwolf666]

would you stop the 100k a day prediction?

If you mean why does he use that prediction, then that would be because that's what the Health Secretary said himself on TV this very morning, think about that nearly 3/4 million people, in one week!!!

 

[beorhthelm]

The researchers also found that people with asthma were more likely to develop long COVID, although there were no clear links to any other underlying health conditions.

Importantly, the more symptoms a person had in the first week, the more likely they were to go on to develop long COVID.

not unlike pneumonia or other secondary effects from a serious respiratory infection. dont think there isnt a formal clinical coding for long covid, its simply symptoms persisting for some undefined time past the main illlness.

 

[beorhthelm]

If you mean why does he use that prediction, then that would be because that's what the Health Secretary said himself on TV this very morning, think about that nearly 3/4 million people, in one week!!!

and Javid used "personal responsibility"... dont want to be selective on which soundbite and cliches to use.

 

[darkwolf666]

and Javid used "personal responsibility"... dont want to be selective on which soundbite and cliches to use.

Sorry, what is your point, the Health Secretary used those figures, that's not a soundbite or cliché but a fact...

 

[LamieRobertson]

Yesterday I’d have liked to have seen an announcement for more help on sick pay

 

[Weststander]

On Sky News the brilliant Professor Carl Heneghan is debating the opening up with Dr Zubaida Haque (supposedly Independent Sage). She spitting hate, with a screwed up forehead, at the ending of many restrictions. I used to think that scientists were always objective, apolitical, measured.

Heneghan’s overriding point is that we have to take everything in the wider context of society, all other illnesses, mental health. He didn’t even mention the affect on kids education or people’s livelihoods.

 

[Yoda]

Skimming through that article it is 10% of 18-49 year olds versus 22% for the over 70s who get Covid go on to suffer Long Covid (although there are other factors such as BMI). As we are still in a window where younger people aren't fully vaccinated so presumably will be a fair chunk of the 100,000 people a day being infected the cases might begin to stack up in the weeks, months and years to come.

We were always going to have an exit wave and there are good arguments for letting it happen now as opposed to Autumn but if I was a 25 year old shop worker who had been vaccinated once and went on to catch Covid which want on to be long Covid I would feel fairly aggrieved.

10% of 18-49 with a higher proportion of that 10% towards the top end of that age group due to age being a major factor. Who are largely fully vaccinated.

Just because its 10% of all 18-49 year olds that get covid, go on to get a form of long covid does not mean 10% of all 18 year old that catch covid will get long covid. As per the bottom part of the section I quoted "Importantly, the more symptoms a person had in the first week, the more likely they were to go on to develop long COVID." - We know as you move down the younger age groups, the less amount of symptoms you get. This will also play a huge factor into how many (or fewer in the lower age groups) may get long covid.

(Also please note, long covid does not mean a debilitating effect as still just having the cough and nothing else between 4 & 12 weeks later can still be classed as long covid)

 

[Sorrel]

Every new case provides the potential for mutation and a new variant.

This is true for many diseases. Each year there are flu variants that are potentially very dangerous.

 

[nicko31]

On Sky News the brilliant Professor Carl Heneghan is debating the opening up with Dr Zubaida Haque (supposedly Independent Sage). She spitting hate, with a screwed up forehead, at the ending of many restrictions. I used to think that scientists were always objective, apolitical, measured.

Heneghan’s overriding point is that we have to take everything in the wider context of society, all other illnesses, mental health. He didn’t even mention the affect on kids education or people’s livelihoods.

From Haque a difference of opinion, but hate

Heneghan’s argument seemed to suggest the government was experimenting and seeing what will happen when we give people ‘personal responsibility’.

The role government should be there to protect, not permit mass infection on a scale of hundreds of thousands when the half the population is unprotected

We've have 16 months of this, why risk it all by going too early? Its the story of Johnson from the very start, too late to lockdown, too early to unlock....

 

[Weststander]

From Haque a difference of opinion, but hate

Heneghan’s argument seemed to suggest the government was experimenting and seeing what will happen when we give people ‘personal responsibility’.

The role government should be there to protect, not permit mass infection on a scale of hundreds of thousands when the half the population is unprotected

Heneghan came across as open minded, in the past he’s admitted where he misjudged things either way. They’re all learning from unique events. If he doesn’t know, he says so, as you’d expect from any scientist. As with Dr Chris Smith, never political.

Whilst Haque is classic ‘Independent’ Sage, highly political, scathing of literally everything and anything done. A colleague of hers Susan Michie was interviewed by socially-minded Shelagh Fogarty on LBC back in May. Things were going well, it was intended to be an intelligent conversation on where we go through here. Instead she steered every question to a statement that started with a bitterly said “Johnson”, I don’t know how many lemons she’d sucked. Even Fogarty commented, trying to get intelligent answers. I looked up Michie afterwards, no surprise at all, she’s a member of the Communist Party and Corbyn supporter.

Independent Sage includes a rag tag of natural opponents of anything right of centre politically. And it shows in their angry interviews. Propaganda to try to influence the public.

I’d rather listen to a calm scientist without an angle.

 

[vegster]

So we might reach 100,000 cases a day by end of Summer? To put that into context we peaked at about 60,000 a day in early January. Fully acknowledge that the vaccine will reduce the severity for most so hospitalisations and deaths should be relatively much lower but that is still a lot of people being ill at once and quite possibly needing time off work.

Heard an expert talking about this today. The vaccine reduces the risk of hospitalisation and death to a small percentage, however when you get big numbers a small percentage becomes quite a lot.
Looks like we are throwing caution to the wind as Johnson seems to have had enough of having to make decisions and judgements... Javid is frightening me too, one week in the job and his previous experience in banking seems to have given him amazing clarity on dealing with Viral Pandemics...or so he thinks.... Yet even he says he will carry and use a face mask when necessary and you won't see him having to fight for standing room on the 8.05 to Victoria like the rest of us.

 

[wehatepalace]

We've have 16 months of this, why risk it all by going too early? Its the story of Johnson from the very start, too late to lockdown, too early to unlock....

Is it too early though ?
Just for context some people haven’t earned a penny for 16 months, some people haven’t had any government help for 16 months, some people haven’t seen their family for 16 months, some people haven’t even been able to go home for 16 months.
While you may have been quite comfortable during the restrictions, for others it’s been hell on earth and are literally living a nightmare.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Heard an expert talking about this today. The vaccine reduces the risk of hospitalisation and death to a small percentage, however when you get big numbers a small percentage becomes quite a lot.

Which is why, in a moderately bad flu season, 100 people a day are dying of it. (40 a day, even in a good season.) Because a small percentage of deaths out of a small percentage of people who get flu, multiplied over 66 million people, makes quite a lot of numbers.

To what extent should we alter our lives if we can save 100 lives per day? Would it be appropriate for flu, every winter, to ban travel, to close schools, to close down businesses, to cut out entertainment? every winter? And if not, we need to consider whether the same is true of coronavirus.

 

[vegster]

Which is why, in a moderately bad flu season, 100 people a day are dying of it. (40 a day, even in a good season.) Because a small percentage of deaths out of a small percentage of people who get flu, multiplied over 66 million people, makes quite a lot of numbers.

To what extent should we alter our lives if we can save 100 lives per day? Would it be appropriate for flu, every winter, to ban travel, to close schools, to close down businesses, to cut out entertainment? every winter? And if not, we need to consider whether the same is true of coronavirus.

The problem comes with the fact that Covid- 19 is far more transmissible, and has a higher death rate for those who are unvaccinated and, for people with suppressed immune systems it is probably fatal sadly.

I think that there needs to be much more thought about preventing the spread in Autumn and Winter for obvious reasons and that mask wearing and hand sanitising when on public transport or indoor social gatherings needs to continue and a degree of distancing in pubs, theatres and cinema and sporting venues too.

Johnson is taking a huge gamble with people's lives by unlocking just as case numbers are rising rapidly. I can only assume that he has weighed up the financial cost against the human cost and chose finance. A month ago he said that it would be unwise to unlock with the number if daily new cases and now it's safe although case numbers have doubled?

 

[crodonilson]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/06/data-predicting-2m-uk-summer-covid-cases-prompts-health-fears

This unlocking is going to cause absolute carnage, how can the track and trace system work with potentially 100k daily cases?? (It barely works with 5k cases). How many NHS staff are going to be off with covid or isolating after being a contact of a positive case? How many young people are we throwing to the lions with long covid?