Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Is it PotG?]

Germany OUT.

Germany's Public Health Institute has designated the UK as a virus variant area of concern.

From Sunday 23 May, people travelling to Germany from England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland may only enter the country if they are a German citizen or resident.

Spouses and children under 18 of a German citizen or resident can also enter, as long as the household are travelling together.

Those with an urgent humanitarian reason such as an immediate family bereavement are also able to enter.

But anyone entering the country from the UK will have to quarantine for two weeks, even if they test negative for the coronavirus.

People who are only transferring from one flight to another will still be allowed in, however they must remain in the airport transit area.

Germany is still on the UK government's amber list - meaning travellers must quarantine at home for 10 days on return and take a pre-departure test and two post-arrival tests.

 

[atomised]

Germany OUT.

Germany's Public Health Institute has designated the UK as a virus variant area of concern.

From Sunday 23 May, people travelling to Germany from England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland may only enter the country if they are a German citizen or resident.

Spouses and children under 18 of a German citizen or resident can also enter, as long as the household are travelling together.

Those with an urgent humanitarian reason such as an immediate family bereavement are also able to enter.

But anyone entering the country from the UK will have to quarantine for two weeks, even if they test negative for the coronavirus.

People who are only transferring from one flight to another will still be allowed in, however they must remain in the airport transit area.

Germany is still on the UK government's amber list - meaning travellers must quarantine at home for 10 days on return and take a pre-departure test and two post-arrival tests.

We are clearly doing the world's sequencing work to save them the bother. I believe we are doing a far higher number of sequencing tests.

 

[nicko31]

Germany OUT.

Germany's Public Health Institute has designated the UK as a virus variant area of concern.

From Sunday 23 May, people travelling to Germany from England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland may only enter the country if they are a German citizen or resident.

Spouses and children under 18 of a German citizen or resident can also enter, as long as the household are travelling together.

Those with an urgent humanitarian reason such as an immediate family bereavement are also able to enter.

But anyone entering the country from the UK will have to quarantine for two weeks, even if they test negative for the coronavirus.

People who are only transferring from one flight to another will still be allowed in, however they must remain in the airport transit area.

Germany is still on the UK government's amber list - meaning travellers must quarantine at home for 10 days on return and take a pre-departure test and two post-arrival tests.

This is very prudent, latest data suggests just 35% protection with one shot of vaccine against the Indian variant, compared to 51% with the Kent variant

After 2 shots its 81% versus 87%

https://www.ft.com/content/a70d423a-7d7c-4736-8828-0a485d7c3a8e

Going ahead with June 21 looks increasingly unwise...

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

This is very prudent, latest data suggests just 35% protection with one shot of vaccine against the Indian variant, compared to 51% with the Kent variant

After 2 shots its 81% versus 87%

https://www.ft.com/content/a70d423a-7d7c-4736-8828-0a485d7c3a8e

Going ahead with June 21 looks increasingly unwise...

It looks absolutely fine still.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1396015144233222144?s=20

20 million fully vaccinated of those at risk.

And 4 more weeks to go.

 

[Hotchilidog]

It looks absolutely fine still.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1396015144233222144?s=20

20 million fully vaccinated of those at risk.

And 4 more weeks to go.

Potentially another 20m or so doses before June 21. Even if June 21 is postponed it should only be by a matter of a week or two rather than months.

Got my second jab today. They are working through it.

 

[e77]

I think we can be an awful lot back to normal on June 21st. I am not convinced public transport will be able to run at full capacity by them though which fairly much wipes out commuting and getting everyone back in the office.

 

[Yoda]

Potentially another 20m or so doses before June 21. Even if June 21 is postponed it should only be by a matter of a week or two rather than months.

Got my second jab today. They are working through it.

Looking at the governments plan to offer everyone over the age of 18 at least one dose by the end of June, I believe any delay on that date will be by one month at the worst to somewhere between 19th-23rd July to allow the vaccine to take effect on those having their jabs at the end of June.

 

[Billy the Fish]

This is very prudent, latest data suggests just 35% protection with one shot of vaccine against the Indian variant, compared to 51% with the Kent variant

After 2 shots its 81% versus 87%

https://www.ft.com/content/a70d423a-7d7c-4736-8828-0a485d7c3a8e

Going ahead with June 21 looks increasingly unwise...

100% effective at preventing serious illness.

Just to reiterate - ONE HUNDRED PERCENT.

It doesn't matter if people's get it and have a mild cold.

 

[dsr-burnley]

This is very prudent, latest data suggests just 35% protection with one shot of vaccine against the Indian variant, compared to 51% with the Kent variant

After 2 shots its 81% versus 87%

https://www.ft.com/content/a70d423a-7d7c-4736-8828-0a485d7c3a8e

Going ahead with June 21 looks increasingly unwise...

Just to make it clear: are you saying that we should not leave lockdown until a brand new vaccine is developed that is substantially better than the one we have now? (Even though the one we have now is extremely effective?)

Prudence is overrated. It's a useful attribute, but unless taking your next breath is all that you wish to look forward to, it needs to be tempered with realism.

 

[nwgull]

100% effective at preventing serious illness.

Just to reiterate - ONE HUNDRED PERCENT.

It doesn't matter if people's get it and have a mild cold.

Where has it been reported as 100% percent effective against serious illness? People have been admitted to hospital in Bolton with the Indian variant after having one and two jabs, so it can’t be 100%.

 

[Billy the Fish]

Where has it been reported as 100% percent effective against serious illness? People have been admitted to hospital in Bolton with the Indian variant after having one and two jabs, so it can’t be 100%.

Source?

The vaccines are 100% effective against every other variant. Given the data that's emerging and the very similar numbers why would this one be any different?

 

[nwgull]

Source?

The vaccines are 100% effective against every other variant. Given the data that's emerging and the very similar numbers why would this one be any different?

This was all over the news earlier this week, but even so:

https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...8-people-hospital-bolton-coronavirus-20608067

Most cases of hospitalisation are on unvaccinated people that were eligible, so vaccinations are clearly effective at stopping serious illness, but they’re clearly not 100%. I don’t think many vaccines are.

 

[Billy the Fish]

This was all over the news earlier this week, but even so:

https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...8-people-hospital-bolton-coronavirus-20608067

Most cases of hospitalisation are on unvaccinated people that were eligible, so vaccinations are clearly effective at stopping serious illness, but they’re clearly not 100%. I don’t think many vaccines are.

Ok fair enough not 100%. It's still going to be in the very high 90s. That article isn't very specific about when those people had their jab, bearing in mind it takes 3 weeks to fully kick in.

It's still not enough to delay opening.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Where has it been reported as 100% percent effective against serious illness? People have been admitted to hospital in Bolton with the Indian variant after having one and two jabs, so it can’t be 100%.

That doesn't necessarily follow, because we don't know whether they were admitted to hospital for unrelated reasons and just happened to have coronavirus. The vaccine cannot stop you breathing in the virus, and it cannot stop it getting attached to the cells of your lungs. What it can do is prime the antibodies to get going so much faster and wipe out the virus before it gets going.

 

[e77]

Vaccines - Covid or otherwise - are never 100% effective. The idea is they create enough of a firebreak that it starves the disease of opportunities to spread and infect people.

 

[nicko31]

Just to make it clear: are you saying that we should not leave lockdown until a brand new vaccine is developed that is substantially better than the one we have now? (Even though the one we have now is extremely effective?)

Prudence is overrated. It's a useful attribute, but unless taking your next breath is all that you wish to look forward to, it needs to be tempered with realism.

The Germans are being cautious because we now have a variant will is more transmissible (still don't know how much) and also the vaccines are 35% less effective with one dose versus the Kent variant. Its understandable they will want to keep this variant out as long as possible until they achieve higher vaccination rates

Our vaccination rates are still higher than the Germans, but if we take into account 1st, 2nd and no jabs currently the adult population has 43% vaccine protection ​against the Kent variant and 33% protected against the Indian variant which will more than likely become the dominant variant.

We've come a long way but still a long way to go, and of course these number are without taking into account under 18's (take off another 5-10% to cover this group)

If we go too early and get another big surge we risk the chance of more new variants with unknown consequences

Better to be over cautious and delay a few weeks than go the over optimistic route. The government seem to hell bent on the later again and are ignoring the science once more.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

The Germans are being cautious because we now have a variant will is more transmissible (still don't know how much) and also the vaccines are 35% less effective with one dose versus the Kent variant. Its understandable they will want to keep this variant out as long as possible until they achieve higher vaccination rates

Our vaccination rates are still higher than the Germans, but if we take into account 1st, 2nd and no jabs currently the adult population has 43% vaccine protection ​against the Kent variant and 33% protected against the Indian variant which will more than likely become the dominant variant.

We've come a long way but still a long way to go, and of course these number are without taking into account under 18's (take off another 5-10% to cover this group)

If we go too early and get another big surge we risk the chance of more new variants with unknown consequences

Better to be over cautious and delay a few weeks than go the over optimistic route. The government seem to hell bent on the later again and are ignoring the science once more.

“The Science”?

Dr Harries told Marr that the possibly of lifting all lockdown restrictions in June is currently “looking good” before urging caution in order to avoid a fourth national lockdown.

Dr Graham Medley

He told Sky News that “people should have common sense, they should use judgement and I think if we act in a reasonable way, there is no reason to suppose that we can’t reopen the economy entirely on June 21”.

Etc etc

If by the science you mean independent sage line of thought, schools would still be shut if we followed them.

 

[Billy the Fish]

Vaccines - Covid or otherwise - are never 100% effective. The idea is they create enough of a firebreak that it starves the disease of opportunities to spread and infect people.

Depends what your measure of success is.

In the clinical trials nobody died or went to hospital, the objective was to stop hospitals being overwhelmed, I would call that 100% effective hence my earlier post.

I see all these percentages being thrown around in the media and the vast majority of people don't have a Scooby what they actually mean. Vaccine is 30% less effective against the Indian variant, WTF does that mean in real terms
I don't know, I bet nobody else on here knows either.

 

[Poojah]

The Germans are being cautious because we now have a variant will is more transmissible (still don't know how much) and also the vaccines are 35% less effective with one dose versus the Kent variant. Its understandable they will want to keep this variant out as long as possible until they achieve higher vaccination rates

Our vaccination rates are still higher than the Germans, but if we take into account 1st, 2nd and no jabs currently the adult population has 43% vaccine protection ​against the Kent variant and 33% protected against the Indian variant which will more than likely become the dominant variant.

We've come a long way but still a long way to go, and of course these number are without taking into account under 18's (take off another 5-10% to cover this group)

If we go too early and get another big surge we risk the chance of more new variants with unknown consequences

Better to be over cautious and delay a few weeks than go the over optimistic route. The government seem to hell bent on the later again and are ignoring the science once more.

I posted this in the Good News Thread earlier but it seems relevant here. Basically, graph shows that the case to death rate has fallen from >2% in January to around 0.2% in early May (the figure will probably be even lower right now, we just have to wait around 3 weeks for the corresponding death data). Unless the Indian variant (or any other variant for that matter) fundamentally changes this then I don't see any tightening of restrictions happening again - it may be prudent to delay the complete cessation of restrictions on 21st June (which always seemed ambitous to me), but I feel reasonably positive that we are slowly but surely moving out of this now.

 

[nicko31]

“The Science”?

Dr Harries told Marr that the possibly of lifting all lockdown restrictions in June is currently “looking good” before urging caution in order to avoid a fourth national lockdown.

Dr Graham Medley

He told Sky News that “people should have common sense, they should use judgement and I think if we act in a reasonable way, there is no reason to suppose that we can’t reopen the economy entirely on June 21”.

Etc etc

If by the science you mean independent sage line of thought, schools would still be shut if we followed them.

PHE "updated" their risk assessment yesterday for vaccine escape from AMBER to RED, government messaging doesn't reflect this

The sooner we get second doses into arms the better