Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[atomised]

It's Warwick University saying 10,000 a day. Other scientists have said 20,000 a day.

January's peak (which was higher than in the first wave) was 3,800 in a day....

It's as though the models assume vaccination isn't happening?

I really don't see where they find these numbers. Who are these 10000 a day to be hospitalised? I appreciate it's not over yet but I can't grasp how with 70% plus of the adult population having antibodies of one form or another it clearly can't rip through massive numbers like it could pre vaccination programme

 

[Poojah]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/14/india-covid-variant-could-lead-to-third-wave-uk

The new models are deeply troubling, suggesting that if the government carries on with the new unlocking on Monday and even if it then delays the 21st June deadline if the new variant is 40% more transmissible (and current estimates are it could be as much as 60% more transmissible) we will see a bigger wave than January.

IF.

That’s the overriding theme of that article. There are lots of unknowns about the Indian variant - it might knock us off track, it might not. The fact that it has a probability of >10% makes it a news story, but it’s reckless to present the projected worst case scenario as a nailed on ghost of the future.

Politicians are rightly being cautious about future relaxations, but as of now the risk to most of us remains low. Currently, the pattern is this - we have increasing levels of a south Asian variant of the virus, currently wreaking havoc in South Asia, prevailing within south Asian communities in the UK - a demographic that has a statistically lower vaccination rate as well as a higher prevalence of multi-generational households.

I find this unsurprising - it was inevitable. But given the vaccination level we are now at - my 36 year old, healthy wife was vaccinated yesterday, I think it’s increasingly unlikely we are going to get into four figure daily deaths again. Feel free to quote me on this at a later date (I’ll glumly take my medicine if so) but I find the prospect of even three figure daily deaths incomprehensible.

Let’s take it one step at a time before too much hand wringing takes place. For everyone’s sake.

 

[darkwolf666]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/14/india-covid-variant-could-lead-to-third-wave-uk

The new models are deeply troubling, suggesting that if the government carries on with the new unlocking on Monday and even if it then delays the 21st June deadline if the new variant is 40% more transmissible (and current estimates are it could be as much as 60% more transmissible) we will see a bigger wave than January.

Weird, I could have sworn over 35,000,000 people had been vaccinated since that January peak...

The models throughout this pandemic have been next to useless, Warwick in particular have always been merchants of doom and largely wrong!

 

[crodonilson]

Weird, I could have sworn over 35,000,000 people had been vaccinated since that January peak...

The models throughout this pandemic have been next to useless, Warwick in particular have always been merchants of doom and largely wrong!

Which if true begs the question of why do the government and the media place such emphasis on this modelling? The head of the NHS however yesterday was practically begging for up to date modelling in the effects a new wave could have on the NHS, and in the back of this I expect he will be calling for new lockdowns to keep the NHS from being swamped even more so than January.

But playing devils advocate if we don't trust the genius of the SAGE scientists and their modelling were leaving ourselves vulnerable to many future waves and other epidemics? ( If we followed POF Neil Ferguson's advice throughout the epidemic we'd fave locked down in February last year and again last September for winter and wouldn't be in nearly such a mess)

 

[atomised]

If the NHS is swamped again across the Summer something has gone drastically wrong. Only last week these scientists were talking of a smaller wave and not likely to occur until autumn.

 

[dsr-burnley]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/14/india-covid-variant-could-lead-to-third-wave-uk

The new models are deeply troubling, suggesting that if the government carries on with the new unlocking on Monday and even if it then delays the 21st June deadline if the new variant is 40% more transmissible (and current estimates are it could be as much as 60% more transmissible) we will see a bigger wave than January.

Don't be troubled by the new models. The modellers are extremely clever people, who know that they are so clever that when they say one thing and the real world says another, it is the real world that is wrong. Because people as clever as they are can never, in their own minds, be wrong.

So when they produced a model. A model that initially ignored the Indian variant, and based its findings on the variants we already had. And that model said the effect of all the vaccinations would mean 4,000 to 11,000 deaths in July and August 2021, as compared with 913 in July and August 2020. So their model predicts that the vaccine has no effect at all.

These people do not have the common sense to look at real world data, not just here but in Israel and the USA and other countries - even India - to see that they are flat out wrong. Their models have always been wrong. Why does it not occur to them that if the models are always wrong, then there is something wrong with the models?

And then they add in the Indian variant. What is the point of assuming that the vaccines do not reduce illness and death, when we know that they do? What is the point of assuming that the vaccines do not slow the spread, when we know that they do? What is the point of assuming that summer makes no difference to the virus, when it is 99%+ certain that it does? What is the point of this model at all?

These people are on a par with the ones saying Bill Gates has microchipped the vaccine.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Which if true begs the question of why do the government and the media place such emphasis on this modelling? The head of the NHS however yesterday was practically begging for up to date modelling in the effects a new wave could have on the NHS, and in the back of this I expect he will be calling for new lockdowns to keep the NHS from being swamped even more so than January.

But playing devils advocate if we don't trust the genius of the SAGE scientists and their modelling were leaving ourselves vulnerable to many future waves and other epidemics? ( If we followed POF Neil Ferguson's advice throughout the epidemic we'd fave locked down in February last year and again last September for winter and wouldn't be in nearly such a mess)

If the vaccine works, we won't get any more waves. If the vaccine doesn't work, we will. You don't need models for that.

If the vaccine doesn't work, then either we live and die and take our chances, or else we stay locked down for ever. Which option we take is a matter for a different discussion, but as all the signs are that the vaccine works, it's a pointless and purely hypothetical argument. The vaccines work on all known variants and there is no evidence that this Indian variant is any different.

 

[crodonilson]

Don't be troubled by the new models. The modellers are extremely clever people, who know that they are so clever that when they say one thing and the real world says another, it is the real world that is wrong. Because people as clever as they are can never, in their own minds, be wrong.

So when they produced a model. A model that initially ignored the Indian variant, and based its findings on the variants we already had. And that model said the effect of all the vaccinations would mean 4,000 to 11,000 deaths in July and August 2021, as compared with 913 in July and August 2020. So their model predicts that the vaccine has no effect at all.

These people do not have the common sense to look at real world data, not just here but in Israel and the USA and other countries - even India - to see that they are flat out wrong. Their models have always been wrong. Why does it not occur to them that if the models are always wrong, then there is something wrong with the models?

And then they add in the Indian variant. What is the point of assuming that the vaccines do not reduce illness and death, when we know that they do? What is the point of assuming that the vaccines do not slow the spread, when we know that they do? What is the point of assuming that summer makes no difference to the virus, when it is 99%+ certain that it does? What is the point of this model at all?

These people are on a par with the ones saying Bill Gates has microchipped the vaccine.

So from all this im concluding you're a better modeller than any of the SAGE scientists?? And I guess we should just all go back to normal now? Thank **** you weren't in charge last spring, you can get your bottom dollar you were one of the idiots advocating herd immunity and the Cheltenham festival going ahead

 

[beorhthelm]

Weird, I could have sworn over 35,000,000 people had been vaccinated since that January peak...

The models throughout this pandemic have been next to useless, Warwick in particular have always been merchants of doom and largely wrong!

yep, and with effects of virus not hospitalising the small % that still fall to the disease, case numbers are pretty irrelevant. we're into realms of academics fishing for research funding.

 

[Sussexscots]

Which if true begs the question of why do the government and the media place such emphasis on this modelling? The head of the NHS however yesterday was practically begging for up to date modelling in the effects a new wave could have on the NHS, and in the back of this I expect he will be calling for new lockdowns to keep the NHS from being swamped even more so than January.

But playing devils advocate if we don't trust the genius of the SAGE scientists and their modelling were leaving ourselves vulnerable to many future waves and other epidemics? ( If we followed POF Neil Ferguson's advice throughout the epidemic we'd fave locked down in February last year and again last September for winter and wouldn't be in nearly such a mess)

Ferguson lost any authority he had to pontificate about lockdowns when he decided they didn't apply to him as he wanted to pop out to shag his Mistress. The man is a huckster.

There's no evidence to suggest the vaccines are ineffective against this or any other variant. And if vaccines are not our manumission, then what? We keep having lockdowns ad infinitum?

 

[beorhthelm]

So from all this im concluding you're a better modeller than any of the SAGE scientists??

the article says modellers advising Sage, not actually Sage scientist, probably some research group that a Sage member on a mailing list. its Daily Express grade reporting. and read what [MENTION=29976]dsr-burnley[/MENTION] wrote, he's challenging why the rate would be higher this autumn than last when there was no vaccine. did the article explain that? no, because they dont want to. the modelling only produces such scenario with extremely unlikely/improbable inputs.

its notable that the last Sage minutes dont even mention the transmission, nor hospitalisation cited in the article.
what is does say how ever "Modelling shows that taking step 3 of the roadmap is alone highly unlikely to put unsustainable pressure on the NHS".
it also states "In most scenarios modelled, any peak in numbers of hospitalisations and deaths is smaller than any previous wave seen in England. The peaks are also smaller than modelled ahead of step 2 because new evidence suggests that vaccination may have a greater impact on transmission than previously assumed,"

So we have a claimed university model saying new wave and 11k deaths in July, while Sage actually says they dont expect any pressure on NHS and dont expect peaks more than before.

 

[dsr-burnley]

So from all this im concluding you're a better modeller than any of the SAGE scientists?? And I guess we should just all go back to normal now? Thank **** you weren't in charge last spring, you can get your bottom dollar you were one of the idiots advocating herd immunity and the Cheltenham festival going ahead

Here are the minutes for the SAGE meeting of 10th March 2020.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...s-coronavirus-covid-19-response-10-march-2020

Note this paragraph in particular:

37. SAGE noted that public gatherings pose a relatively low but not zero public risk. People are more likely to be infected by people they know, not strangers. But it acknowledged the importance of advice in this area and agreed to review it and to look at different types of gatherings or meetings.

So you need to make your mind up. Are SAGE wonderfully wise people who should have been listened to, or are they idiots who advocated the Cheltenham Festival (which started on 10th March) should go ahead? It has to be one or the other.

 

[crodonilson]

the article says modellers advising Sage, not actually Sage scientist, probably some research group that a Sage member on a mailing list. its Daily Express grade reporting. and read what [MENTION=29976]dsr-burnley[/MENTION] wrote, he's challenging why the rate would be higher this autumn than last when there was no vaccine. did the article explain that? no, because they dont want to. the modelling only produces such scenario with extremely unlikely/improbable inputs.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-89-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-13-may-2021

No it's very much SAGE itself, I draw you to point 9 of the SAGE minutes from the emergency meeting on Thursday where they suggest with high confidence even with only the next stage going ahead in Monday it will lead to at least the number of hospitalisations from the January peak and possibly more. We need to protect our NHS.

 

[dsr-burnley]

And if you want the actual last meeting of SAGE before the Cheltenham Festival started, it was five days earlier on 5th March. This was their verdict then:

14. SAGE agreed there is no evidence to suggest that banning very large gatherings would reduce transmission. Preventing all social interaction in public spaces, including restaurants and bars, would have an effect, but would be very difficult to implement.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...es-coronavirus-covid-19-response-5-march-2020

 

[crodonilson]

Here are the minutes for the SAGE meeting of 10th March 2020.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...s-coronavirus-covid-19-response-10-march-2020

Note this paragraph in particular:

37. SAGE noted that public gatherings pose a relatively low but not zero public risk. People are more likely to be infected by people they know, not strangers. But it acknowledged the importance of advice in this area and agreed to review it and to look at different types of gatherings or meetings.

So you need to make your mind up. Are SAGE wonderfully wise people who should have been listened to, or are they idiots who advocated the Cheltenham Festival (which started on 10th March) should go ahead? It has to be one or the other.

Well maybe they were idots, we know already there were some idiots within SAGE who advocated herd immunity. I will give them some benefit of the doubt, it was still only a few months after the initial cases in China and nobody knew quite how it would take offm I do know certain members within SAGE wanted us to lockdown as early as February like Neil Ferguson, whose modeling eventually forced the government into a long overdue lockdown.

 

[atomised]

Well maybe they were idots, we know already there were some idiots within SAGE who advocated herd immunity. I will give them some benefit of the doubt, it was still only a few months after the initial cases in China and nobody knew quite how it would take offm I do know certain members within SAGE wanted us to lockdown as early as February like Neil Ferguson, whose modeling eventually forced the government into a long overdue lockdown.

And then gleefully ignored the lockdown he had pushed for.

 

[atomised]

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-89-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-13-may-2021

No it's very much SAGE itself, I draw you to point 9 of the SAGE minutes from the emergency meeting on Thursday where they suggest with high confidence even with only the next stage going ahead in Monday it will lead to at least the number of hospitalisations from the January peak and possibly more. We need to protect our NHS.

You still haven't really explained from which pool of people this huge number of hospitalisations will come from.

 

[crodonilson]

And if you want the actual last meeting of SAGE before the Cheltenham Festival started, it was five days earlier on 5th March. This was their verdict then:

14. SAGE agreed there is no evidence to suggest that banning very large gatherings would reduce transmission. Preventing all social interaction in public spaces, including restaurants and bars, would have an effect, but would be very difficult to implement.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...es-coronavirus-covid-19-response-5-march-2020

This was correct, without a full lockdown implemented by the government any measures would have been almost impossible to implement. We know now certain members bought up herd immunity and letting the virus rip as a tactic and we've seen the damage done around the world with such tactics. Now we gave real world examples of what covid dies SATE are very rightly telling the government to impose measures to control the spread of new variants which is the single greatest risk to all if the progress we've me are since January.

 

[dsr-burnley]

These are the idiots on SAGE last March.

Patrick Vallance (GCSA)
Chris Whitty (CMO)
Andrew Rambaut (Edinburgh)
Angela McLean (CSA MOD)
Brooke Rogers (King’s College London)
Carole Mundell (CSA FCO)
Charlotte Watts (CSA DfID)
David Halpern (CO)
Graham Medley (LSHTM)
James Rubin (King’s College London)
Jeremy Farrar (Wellcome)
John Aston (CSA HO)
John Edmunds (LSHTM)
Jonathan Van Tam (Deputy CMO)
Maria Zambon (PHE)
Neil Ferguson (Imperial)
Osama Rahman (CSA DfE)
Peter Horby (Oxford)
Russell Viner (UCL)
Sharon Peacock (PHE)
Steve Powis (NHS)

And these are the idiots on SAGE this week

Scientific experts (39): Patrick Vallance (GCSA), Chris Whitty (CMO), Adam Kucharski
(LSHTM), Andrew Rambaut (Edinburgh), Angela McLean (MoD, CSA), Calum Semple
(Liverpool), Catherine Noakes (Leeds), Charlotte Watts (FCDO), Fliss Bennee (Welsh
Government), Graham Medley (LSHTM), Gregor Smith (Scottish Government, CMO), Harry
Rutter (Bath), Ian Boyd, Ian Diamond (ONS), Ian Young (Northern Ireland, CSA),
Jeanelle de Gruchy (ADPH), Jenny Harries (UKHSA), Jeremy Farrar (Wellcome), Julia Gog
(Cambridge), John Edmunds (LSHTM), Jonathan Van Tam (dCMO),
Kamlesh Khunti (Leicester), Linda Partridge (Royal Society), Maria Zambon (PHE),
Mark Walport, Mark Wilcox (Leeds), Meera Chand (PHE), Michael Parker (Oxford), Paul
Kellam (Imperial), Peter Horby (Oxford), Ravindra Gupta (Cambridge), Rob Orford (Welsh
Government, CSA), Sharon Peacock (PHE), Sheila Rowan (Scottish Government, CSA),
Steve Powis (NHS England), Susan Hopkins (PHE/NHST&T), Wei Shen Lim (Nottingham),
Wendy Barclay (Imperial), and Yvonne Doyle (PHE).

13 of the idiots from last March (including Whitty, Vallance and Van Tam) are still there. So if you want to call people idiots for wanting Cheltenham to go ahead, then you are calling SAGE idiots. And if you are calling SAGE idiots, then you can't really call them the wisest group in Christendom.

 

[crodonilson]

You still haven't really explained from which pool of people this huge number of hospitalisations will come from.

The many hundreds of thousands of vulnerable unvaccinated people and then amongst the cacinated vulnerable people, not to mention the young people who are yet to be vaccinated.