Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Hugo Rune]

Sage is meeting today, are in position we are passing all 4 test to move to stage 3 of easing??

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Evidence is B.1.617.2 is more transmissible, gaining dominance and cases in some areas (notably Bolton where it represents 70% of cases now)

We'd be wise to delay things a couple of weeks and pause for breath until we know more, why risk everything when we've still circa 30m unvaccinated?

So a public inquiry for spring next year has been scheduled, no doubt with the sort hand picked goons whom authored the Race Report (institutional racism deniers), you can been guaranteed that the outcome will be decided by Downing Street prior to the publication of the report.

This is a bit shit because the Government or Boris to be precise, simply won’t learn the lessons of the pandemic and keep making the same mistakes. I’m referring, of course, to the period of time that travellers from India to the UK did not face the sort of restrictions that were imposed too late, despite being seemingly obvious that they should do this. It was just like Feb & March last year with people questioning almost unrestricted travel to the UK.

Looking at a delay, sadly, I agree with you. The June 21st date should be put back if cases continue to surge upwards in the UK. It’s very sad that we’ve hit this pothole in the road to recovery, one that could have been avoided if lessons had been learned from previous mistakes made by the Government in the pandemic. I’m not sure local lock downs will contain it with probably 15m-20m+ adults still not having revived their 1st jab.

Also - remember, when the Government say ‘it’s all about data and the science’ they are lying because they have ignored Sage before (probably the only time Labour opposed Government pandemic management decisions) last Autumn. This will be another political decision as they all are, I’m not looking forward to the ramifications of either blindly following the roadmap or extending lockdown.

 

[Badger Boy]

Looking at a delay, sadly, I agree with you. The June 21st date should be put back if cases continue to surge upwards in the UK. It’s very sad that we’ve hit this pothole in the road to recovery, one that could have been avoided if lessons had been learned from previous mistakes made by the Government in the pandemic. I’m not sure local lock downs will contain it with probably 15m-20m+ adults still not having revived their 1st jab.

Continues to surge upwards? That's a very desperate way to read the numbers. There's a spike in Blackburn, so they're rolling out the vaccine to everyone aged 18 and over. Seems clever and appropriate to me. I don't agree there's a "surge" in the numbers, the daily provided numbers don't support such a statement. Sounds to me like you're looking for an excuse not to have life get back going again. Maybe you don't miss anything about how things were, but many do and clearly the country cannot continue to keep everything closed.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Looking at a delay, sadly, I agree with you. The June 21st date should be put back if cases continue to surge upwards in the UK. It’s very sad that we’ve hit this pothole in the road to recovery, one that could have been avoided if lessons had been learned from previous mistakes made by the Government in the pandemic. I’m not sure local lock downs will contain it with probably 15m-20m+ adults still not having revived their 1st jab.

The number of adults at present who haven't had their first jab is 16.7m. I don't think we need to worry unduly about that figure going any higher - I certainly doubt that it would rise above 20m. That would be a lot of immigration.

At present we're doing about 1m per week first jabs, but that's likely to increase when the 2nd jab surge recedes a little. Allowing for just over 5 weeks to 21st June with a million plus jabs per week, I think your range of 15m to over 20m unvaccinated may be more than a little high.

 

[Hugo Rune]

The number of adults at present who haven't had their first jab is 16.7m........I think your range of 15m to over 20m unvaccinated may be more than a little high.

That range I stated was for ‘now’ so it’s accurate, even more so if you add in the probability that secondary school children could well begin to be included in vaccination population and could begin to get jabbed from the beginning of the next academic year in the Autumn.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Continues to surge upwards? That's a very desperate way to read the numbers. There's a spike in Blackburn, so they're rolling out the vaccine to everyone aged 18 and over. Seems clever and appropriate to me. I don't agree there's a "surge" in the numbers, the daily provided numbers don't support such a statement. Sounds to me like you're looking for an excuse not to have life get back going again. Maybe you don't miss anything about how things were, but many do and clearly the country cannot continue to keep everything closed.

Cases are up 12.4% in the last 7 days. That seems like a surge to me as cases were generally falling before. As for you stating it seems a desperate way to interpret the figures, this is what BBC has said about the PM.

“Boris Johnson has said he is "anxious" about the Indian variant of Covid and is "ruling nothing out" to tackle it.”

Surge vaccinations do seem clever and appropriate, let’s just hope they get rolled out to all the other places the Indian variant is taking a grip. I want restrictions to end but the Government need to make sure they are ahead of the game, in letting the Indian variant March into our Country almost unchallenged to begin with, they clearly need to up their game.

 

[nicko31]

Cases are up 12.4% in the last 7 days. That seems like a surge to me as cases were generally falling before. As for you stating it seems a desperate way to interpret the figures, this is what BBC has said about the PM.

“Boris Johnson has said he is "anxious" about the Indian variant of Covid and is "ruling nothing out" to tackle it.”

Surge vaccinations do seem clever and appropriate, let’s just hope they get rolled out to all the other places the Indian variant is taking a grip. I want restrictions to end but the Government need to make sure they are ahead of the game, in letting the Indian variant March into our Country almost unchallenged to begin with, they clearly need to up their game.

Yes the tide is turning, just the early signs

Johnson knew about the surge in the Indian sub continent in late March and Pakistan and others were put on the UK RED list in early April but with India there was no action. Why? Well he had a trip arranged to met Modi in Delhi and sign post Brexit trade deal, well a pretty small deal of circa £1B compared to what we've seen in the past.

Anyway, we lost critical weeks, when eventually India was RED listed there was still a further delay and many piled in on commercial flights and private jets to get back to the UK. We now have rapidly rising rates in UK Indian Asian communities with their variant, there is a lot of multi-generational living which of course doesn't help.

We've also seen insufficient surge testing, I'm afraid we're looking at another f**k up and after todays Sage meeting Johnson knows it. Need to thread very carefully, opening of all indoor hospitality with a crap weather outlook for the rest of May suddenly looks a bit unwise.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Yes the tide is turning, just the early signs

Johnson knew about the surge in the Indian sub continent in late March and Pakistan and others were put on the UK RED list in early April but with India there was no action. Why? Well he had a trip arranged to met Modi in Delhi and sign post Brexit trade deal, well a pretty small deal of circa £1B compared to what we've seen in the past.

Anyway, we lost critical weeks, when eventually India was RED listed there was still a further delay and many piled in on commercial flights and private jets to get back to the UK. We now have rapidly rising rates in UK Indian Asian communities with their variant, there is a lot of multi-generational living which of course doesn't help.

We've also seen insufficient surge testing, I'm afraid we're looking at another f**k up and after todays Sage meeting Johnson knows it. Need to thread very carefully, opening of all indoor hospitality with a crap weather outlook for the rest of May suddenly looks a bit unwise.

So when does this ever end?

The vaccine works on the variant, so we go through this song and dance every time there is a new mutation?

How do you know what was said in the sage meeting?

 

[beorhthelm]

Yes the tide is turning, just the early signs

Johnson knew about the surge in the Indian sub continent in late March and Pakistan and others were put on the UK RED list in early April but with India there was no action. Why?

because other countries hadnt acted to ban travel from India. they did so when other countries did too. theres a good argument they should have acted earlier, but with limited effect if people just fly via other countries.

 

[crodonilson]

Cases nearly tripling in a week, albeit from a low base even with all of the current restrictions is very concerning. This cases are going to rocket next week with so much indoors activity occuring then.

 

[Yoda]

Cases are up 12.4% in the last 7 days. That seems like a surge to me as cases were generally falling before. As for you stating it seems a desperate way to interpret the figures, this is what BBC has said about the PM.

“Boris Johnson has said he is "anxious" about the Indian variant of Covid and is "ruling nothing out" to tackle it.”

Surge vaccinations do seem clever and appropriate, let’s just hope they get rolled out to all the other places the Indian variant is taking a grip. I want restrictions to end but the Government need to make sure they are ahead of the game, in letting the Indian variant March into our Country almost unchallenged to begin with, they clearly need to up their game.

It also takes up to 7 days from when a sample is received to be gnomically sequenced and finally reported. This "surge" as you call it could most likely be largely related to those that travelled back and their close contacts when they returned taking into account how long it can take to become symptomatic and tested. We won't truly know if the new variant has taken hold until between 1-3 weeks time. That is when we will start to see any community spread in the sequencing reports.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Cases nearly tripling in a week, albeit from a low base even with all of the current restrictions is very concerning. This cases are going to rocket next week with so much indoors activity occuring then.

You seem very certain. Will the cases rocket by as much as they were going to rocket when they opened the secondary schools?

How many of these 1,700 cases are serious? There's no point getting concerned about a relatively harmless virus that isn't making people seriously ill. If these 1,700 are being rushed off to hospital in large numbers, then we'll be concerned. But until then, I think we should be more concerned about the people whose mental health is seriously suffering and who really need to be able to get out.

 

[darkwolf666]

You seem very certain. Will the cases rocket by as much as they were going to rocket when they opened the secondary schools?

How many of these 1,700 cases are serious? There's no point getting concerned about a relatively harmless virus that isn't making people seriously ill. If these 1,700 are being rushed off to hospital in large numbers, then we'll be concerned. But until then, I think we should be more concerned about the people whose mental health is seriously suffering and who really need to be able to get out.

I keep hearing this about people who can't "get out" - who, who precisely can't get out that doesn't have an underlying serious health condition. The pubs are now open for beer garden service, and more come next Monday, shops have now been open for a while, people can holiday in the UK, and do many of the things they couldn't until recently, hug a relative, or even go and watch The Albion shortly, so who is still suffering from mental health concerns you express regarding Covid.

Unless of course you are referring to those whose mental health is suffering BECAUSE of the virus, for example the clinically extremely vulnerable, who are petrified to go out for fear of coming into contact with people who appear to believe it's all over - or do they not count anymore?

I know, protect the vulnerable, blah, blah, blah...!

 

[dsr-burnley]

I keep hearing this about people who can't "get out" - who, who precisely can't get out that doesn't have an underlying serious health condition. The pubs are now open for beer garden service, and more come next Monday, shops have now been open for a while, people can holiday in the UK, and do many of the things they couldn't until recently, hug a relative, or even go and watch The Albion shortly, so who is still suffering from mental health concerns you express regarding Covid.

The problem with sitting outside a pub is that when you are 88 and feel the cold, it is likely to be very uncomfortable, and ultimately fatal. If all your social activities have to be indoors - which in this weather, they are for a lot of old people - then being told the shops are open does not make you happy.

If indoor activities are allowed, my mother (and millions of other old people) will be able to see the friends they have not seen for over a year. This may not matter to you, but it does to her.

We have been on holiday, and she is a lot better for it. So am I, for that matter.

And as for mental health issues, everyone suffering with dementia will be worse off to a greater or lesser fegree if they can't see people they know.

 

[darkwolf666]

The problem with sitting outside a pub is that when you are 88 and feel the cold, it is likely to be very uncomfortable, and ultimately fatal. If all your social activities have to be indoors - which in this weather, they are for a lot of old people - then being told the shops are open does not make you happy.

If indoor activities are allowed, my mother (and millions of other old people) will be able to see the friends they have not seen for over a year. This may not matter to you, but it does to her.

We have been on holiday, and she is a lot better for it. So am I, for that matter.

And as for mental health issues, everyone suffering with dementia will be worse off to a greater or lesser fegree if they can't see people they know.

This I guess is part of the problem when we talk about lifting of restrictions, we all see it from a personal point of view - yours is from the perspective of the old, lonely and frail, whereas mine is from the perspective of someone relatively young (60), who is petrified of dying from Covid due to the blood cancer that has already wrecked her life.

I know from living with this previously vibrant woman that her mental health is in a precarious state and is worsened by many people’s attitudes, who appear to believe this is all over, in a headlong rush to normality!

 

[The Wookiee]

Cases nearly tripling in a week, albeit from a low base even with all of the current restrictions is very concerning. This cases are going to rocket next week with so much indoors activity occuring then.

From the BBC:

In Bolton, the areas with the highest infections over the last week map very closely to areas with the lowest vaccination rates.

 

[nicko31]

Cases nearly tripling in a week, albeit from a low base even with all of the current restrictions is very concerning. This cases are going to rocket next week with so much indoors activity occuring then.

Cases of Indian variant up from 500 to 1300 in past 7 days. We need to heavily surge test and restrict indoor hospitality in these hot spot areas as an absolute minimum, though as stated in my earlier post I would go further and hold back across the board.

Unpopular view yes, but not risk not worth it with a current uncertainty...

 

[dazzer6666]

Cases of Indian variant up from 500 to 1300 in past 7 days. We need to heavily surge test and restrict indoor hospitality in these hot spot areas as an absolute minimum, though as stated in my earlier post I would go further and hold back across the board.

Unpopular view yes, but just not worth it...

Agree re surge testing - and now surge vaccinating that is also happening - in the hotspots (which are pretty clearly defined) but the next relaxation isn’t anything like a total relaxation of restrictions. We can see what happens and may need to reconsider what happens on June 21st.

There is nothing at all coming out at the moment that suggests anyone vaccinated or young/fit is at any greater risk from this variant in terms of death or hospitalisation than the others so whilst infections numbers may rise (this was always expected as restrictions were eased anyway, it’s just that in some areas they are rising faster than expected) it’s perhaps unlikely that we’ll see any dramatic increase in hospitalisations/deaths and if this is the case we don’t need to slow down the relaxation of restrictions

All of this actually supports the cautious release plan that was put in place, with time between the steps to reassess the position.

 

[beorhthelm]

From the BBC:

In Bolton, the areas with the highest infections over the last week map very closely to areas with the lowest vaccination rates.

so the problem should sort itself out. there's no good reason the rest of society should be held back due to those choosing not to vaccinate.

 

[dazzer6666]

Cases are up 12.4% in the last 7 days. That seems like a surge to me as cases were generally falling before. As for you stating it seems a desperate way to interpret the figures, this is what BBC has said about the PM.

“Boris Johnson has said he is "anxious" about the Indian variant of Covid and is "ruling nothing out" to tackle it.”

Surge vaccinations do seem clever and appropriate, let’s just hope they get rolled out to all the other places the Indian variant is taking a grip. I want restrictions to end but the Government need to make sure they are ahead of the game, in letting the Indian variant March into our Country almost unchallenged to begin with, they clearly need to up their game.

It’s 12.4% on a daily total hovering around 2,500 - so maybe 300 cases per day. At the peak we were recording 60,000 cases per day. I hate percentages, they are so open to misinterpretation

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

From the BBC:

In Bolton, the areas with the highest infections over the last week map very closely to areas with the lowest vaccination rates.

Darwinism in action.