Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[A1X]

There's an element of logic in that BBC article as we can't treat a pandemic purely on a national level, even if we vaccinated everyone from Covid in the UK we're still vulnerable all the while it's "in the wild" in sufficient numbers to pose a risk. Which is why if (as posited elsewhere) the UK does end up with a large surplus of vaccine we should use it in poorer nations, much as NZ are doing with their vaccine procurement in donating it to the Pacific islands.

 

[dsr-burnley]

I read this yesterday and it felt to me like it was pre-meditated in its gloomy outlook. This is the key line, and in particular the words in bold.



What we know is that we currently have vaccines which prevent serious illness in an overwhelming majority of people. This is good news, but as the article suggests, not sufficient in and of itself to get us quickly back to 'normal'. What we don't yet know is whether the vaccines help reduce transmission, and this is the going to be the key as to how quickly we get our lives back.

If it has zero effect on transmission, i.e. most people who get it do not become ill but can pass it on, then it's going to take a lot longer because the removal of social distancing would ensure that the prevalence of the virus would soar and a small but significant percentage of people would remain vulnerable to its effects.

However, if vaccines are proven to reduce transmission to a meaningful degree, then you rapidly push the down the R rate and the virus recedes into the fringes. In this instance, a smaller proportion of people are becoming ill at the same time fewer people are contracting Covid. In this scenario, I would imagine that a return to normal like in the UK would be practically a given within the first half of this year. Of course, as the article reminds us, Covid is a global problem and of course it's going to take large, developing countries like India considerably longer to get back online. However in terms of ditching social distancing rules, face coverings etc., the UK would be back on track rather quickly.

But which of these scenarios will turn out to be closest to the truth, science doesn't yet know. We will however find out the answer over the coming weeks, so keep your fingers and toes crossed. Until then, I'd take any correspondence which is either profoundly negative or mindlessly optimistic with a pinch of salt. It all rests on something we don't know yet.

This vaccine, like most vaccines, reduces the numbers of virus particles in the body. With most diseases, people with a small dose of the virus are less infectious than people with large doses. What evidence we have to date suggests this is true of covid as well - remember the talk of viral doses?

Hence it is unlikely that people who are vaccinated will pass it on at anything like the same rate as non-immune people.

 

[dsr-burnley]

There's an element of logic in that BBC article as we can't treat a pandemic purely on a national level, even if we vaccinated everyone from Covid in the UK we're still vulnerable all the while it's "in the wild" in sufficient numbers to pose a risk. Which is why if (as posited elsewhere) the UK does end up with a large surplus of vaccine we should use it in poorer nations, much as NZ are doing with their vaccine procurement in donating it to the Pacific islands.

I agree. Keep the factories working flat out, and distribute the spare vaccines to (eg.) the poorer Commonwealth nations for a start. The incidental advantage being that if at all goes belly up again, we have vaccine factories tooled up and ready to go.

 

[pasty]

What is wrong with the ****ING MORONS!!!!!

Party goers "didn't know about pandemic"

 

[RossyG]

What is wrong with the ****ING MORONS!!!!!

Party goers "didn't know about pandemic"

Haha! Obviously that was a lousy “dog ate my homework” excuse rather than genuine ignorance.

 

[dazzer6666]

If the infection rate had doubled over the last 10 days or so the news would be all over it like a rash........the fact it’s actually almost halved from the peak (despite more testing) and the rolling 7 day number is over 20% down barely gets a mention.........

 

[Miximate]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55708709

Not much moves me to tears, but listening to the husband and daughters....

 

[Poojah]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55708709

Not much moves me to tears, but listening to the husband and daughters....

I didn’t think it was going to get me, but...

 

[dazzer6666]

My neighbour passed away last week after a long battle against terminal cancer. Her daughter told me today that when the doc came to certify, he put ‘covid’ on the death certificate as one of the reasons. She categorically hadn’t been tested and had no symptoms at all, but someone in the house had been tested positive recently so it was therefore ‘assumed’.

 

[RossyG]

My neighbour passed away last week after a long battle against terminal cancer. Her daughter told me today that when the doc came to certify, he put ‘covid’ on the death certificate as one of the reasons. She categorically hadn’t been tested and had no symptoms at all, but someone in the house had been tested positive recently so it was therefore ‘assumed’.

It happens a lot, apparently.

 

[beorhthelm]

My neighbour passed away last week after a long battle against terminal cancer. Her daughter told me today that when the doc came to certify, he put ‘covid’ on the death certificate as one of the reasons. She categorically hadn’t been tested and had no symptoms at all, but someone in the house had been tested positive recently so it was therefore ‘assumed’.

should be reported to police. seriously. its false information on a death certificate and illegal.

 

[Sussexscots]

should be reported to police. seriously. its false information on a death certificate and illegal.

Agree. And what possible reason/motive is there for putting Covid on a death certificate if it hasn't been established as a contributory factor?

 

[Richy_Seagull]

It happens a lot, apparently.

Any reliable sources (other than stories on an internet forum) to back up the claim NHS doctors are falsely putting covid as a reason for deaths?

They must have passed me by.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1351313981894483970?s=20

March becomes April, which is drifting into May

 

[RossyG]

Any reliable sources (other than stories on an internet forum) to back up the claim NHS doctors are falsely putting covid as a reason for deaths?

They must have passed me by.

You don’t remember this?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53722711

 

[CHAPPERS]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...nityinengland/antibodydatafortheukjanuary2021

In England, an estimated 1 in 8 people (95% confidence interval: 1 in 9 to 1 in 8) would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in December, suggesting they had the infection in the past.

 

[dsr-burnley]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...nityinengland/antibodydatafortheukjanuary2021

Though they do also point out that an unknown number of people who would not have tested positive for antibodies have had the disease as well, because antibodies fade away over time even though the body remembers how to produce them.

 

[Billy the Fish]

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1351313981894483970?s=20

March becomes April, which is drifting into May

I've seen a couple of similar stories today. I think there's going to be a clash here but suspect Boris will go against SAGE advice and lift restrictions sooner than they want.

Ultimately the medical profession is hugely risk averse, if they had their way restrictions would never be lifted. Once the main risk groups are vaccinated there's no reason not to lift restrictions.

 

[Richy_Seagull]

You don’t remember this?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53722711

Yep, looks like the introduction of the 28 day cut off, how is that relevant to a proof of a doctor deliberately putting covid as a cause of death when it wasn’t?

 

[Notters]

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1351313981894483970?s=20

March becomes April, which is drifting into May

Cheerful stuff!

Not convinced myself - cases are falling rapidly already (likely to be largely natural?)

Interesting how big cities are singled out given that the highest rates are currently in places like Eastbourne and the Isle of Wight.

I've seen a couple of similar stories today. I think there's going to be a clash here but suspect Boris will go against SAGE advice and lift restrictions sooner than they want.

Ultimately the medical profession is hugely risk averse, if they had their way restrictions would never be lifted. Once the main risk groups are vaccinated there's no reason not to lift restrictions.

They're also obviously focussed on Covid and not the wider societal impacts of lockdown. Not sure about 'no reason' though - long covid is affecting a lot of younger people.

Shame Easter is so early this year.