Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
Yep, and loads of places seem to be open unlike March, people are on the roads in numbers as well unlike the first lockdown.
Got something to say or just want fewer pesky ads? Join us... 😊
Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GingerBeerMan
- Start date
Nobby
Well-known member
- Sep 29, 2007
- 2,892
Is it Johnson’s mouth?
My mums care home let us know last week that for the first time they have had 5 confirmed cases and have lost 3 residents, it came in they think from agency staff.
We probably need to return to 2m distancing, with the subsequent effect that has on capacity in supermarkets etc. It was a huge inconvenience having to queue for 20 minutes just to get into Sainsbury’s earlier in the year, but it’s noticeable what a free for all they’ve become. We already know they are the most common public setting for transmission, so given the new variant’s propensity to spread the current environment could be disastrous.
Other than that, I can only see shutting down non-essential businesses as an option left on the table. And by non-essential, I mean it. Amazon, other than its grocery arm, isn’t essential. Nor are takeaways, or many trades etc.
Basically, you stay at home unless your job involves food / sanitary products, medicine, essential infrastructure or fixing an essential item in an emergency. That’s going to be economically painful and a pretty grim way to live our lives for a period, however we would at least go into it would some idea as to what the exit plan is and when it is coming.
I don’t even know what incremental benefit those measures would deliver versus March, but given what we now know about the new variant, the fact the NHS is seemingly close to breaking point and that we probably still haven’t seen the fallout and residual impact from Christmas it seems we’re going to end up with something resembling this model in relatively short order.
Shit times, but there is light at the end of the tunnel.
How would you compensate all those companies, they would without doubt shed heads without close to 100 percent support straight away, and with no way to people earn that’s a lot of jobless people with mortgages/rent to pay.
Without any sort of exit plan/target I think there would be a lot of push back being under complete house arrest, we are already hearing of shortages and delays of Vaccine it only takes a couple more for March to become April etc
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,014
economically harmful and doesnt solve the basic problem of spreading in the community, ie family and friends ignoring the rules. or if we have to go stricter, we should revisit the plan of at risk shielding and the rest carrying on with work. in the end the primary concern should be those at risk, avoid them getting infected and the consequence to NHS and death rate is mitigated.
Jimmy Grimble
Well-known member
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55511169
Another U turn for the collection. Frankly I’m amazed they’re opening them down here. Give it a week and they’ll be closed is my prediction.
Another U turn for the collection. Frankly I’m amazed they’re opening them down here. Give it a week and they’ll be closed is my prediction.
Is it PotG?
Thrifty non-licker
Then the moaners will come out 'How am I supposed to work with kids at home'?
I think sooner than that. The national education unions executive are meeting in the morning then have zoom meetings scheduled to reps and members and have suggested the outcome will impact staff returning to schools on Monday
Jimmy Grimble
Well-known member
Very true.
I get that it’s not ideal for some but it appears there’s serious concern that this new variant affects children more than the original strain, as well as the much noted fact it spreads faster.
I also get that if schools shut it affects the economy and the mental well-being of many children, but given the information at hand I think the physical health of children and those who work in education should come first now and that means closing schools.
In this current situation I wonder if many on here would be prepared to spend every weekday with 30 kids in a classroom that isn’t big enough to practise social distancing.
Well, this is the issue. In doing what I outlined, we’d go even deeper down economic shit creek than we are already, adding to the economic pain we’re all going to feel in the years and possibly even decades after the main event has run its course. It’s a highly unpalatable option, I’m not contesting that.
But what is the alternative? Here’s a quote from a BBC article I read earlier:
If we do the maths, we’re at roughly 55,000 cases per day now. Even failing to allow for where we’ll be this time next week as the fallout from Christmas becomes clearer, if roughly 60% of those cases are the new variant then a November-style lockdown would have us at 99,000 cases of the new variant alone, plus whatever is left of the old variant. You’re probably looking at around 115,000 daily cases, which on its own sounds a scary number but to give it some context it would put us at roughly 3x per capita where the USA is right now.
If it hasn’t sunk in yet, this new variant is a game changer. I think whatever we do now is going to be relatively ineffective and economically disastrous, but if we take the light touch approach we are going to see absolutely horrendous levels of death up until such a time we have hit the vaccination tipping point.
In many ways, I see this new variant as a similar situation to what we had in March. People, myself included, didn’t want to believe how precarious the situation was until we had found ourselves in the midst of an incredibly depressing set of circumstances. I deplore unnecessary sensationalism or doom mongering, but I think that the first quarter of 2021 will be tougher than March and April of last year for a whole host of reasons.
Things will quickly get better though, that’s important to remember. We didn’t have that hope before. Just uncertainty.
See my post above. Such measures wouldn’t ‘solve’ anything - but they would make a potentially cataclysmic situation slightly less damaging. Perhaps not even ‘manageable’ as far as the NHS is concerned, but less catastrophic.
Cataclysmic. Catastrophic. Powerful words, and not nice ones. However, with great regret, I believe that’s what we’re looking at in the early part of the year. I think we were all glad to see the back of 2020, but I do think that the early part of 2021 may be the bumpiest part of the ride yet.
Never has the saying “it’s always darkest before the dawn” been more apt.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,014
the measures to slow spread of the virus apply the same to the new variant. its not immune to washing hands, it doesnt leap through masks, or travel further, it doesnt seek out particular demographic. the difference with the new variant is that when people arent practising those measures, it is more infectious.
I honestly don’t know what the mechanics of the new variant are, or even if anyone does. However, it’s a little naive to assume that people’s behaviour will be perfect, and not always intentionally.
Ultimately, I’m not sure your argument stacks up. People can and will make mistakes, consciously or unconsciously, whatever measures are in place. The point is this - any measures that were implemented previously will be significantly less effective with the new variant, and therefore the virus will spread at a quicker rate. Ergo, we’re likely to have to implement measures that were stricter than ever before in order to keep the spread to remotely manageable levels.
I don’t like that in the slightest. But it is what it is, in my opinion of course.
worthingseagull123
Well-known member
- May 5, 2012
- 2,687
For godness sake, people are protesting outside a hospital in London apparently.
Against what?
worthingseagull123
Well-known member
- May 5, 2012
- 2,687
Unbelievable. These people need putting down.