Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[beorhthelm]

The talk of us being put potentially in tier 3 in East Sussex, when we were in tier 1 when we went into lockdown is utterly unbelievable isn’t it. Infection rates have dropped off pretty fast in Brighton and Hove over the last week as well.

yes it is unbelievable, so wouldnt believe it. where is the talk from? if we're in tier 3 with the lower rates compared to north, would make the tiers rather pointless.

 

[Weststander]

The Guardian:

Germany reported 410 deaths in 24 hours; its worst such toll since the pandemic began.
It came as the chancellor Angela Merkel met with 16 federal state leaders to discuss restrictions for the Christmas and new year holidays.


Their record in the spring was exemplary, one of the best testing systems in the world. Showing it's hard to contain the virus in democracies where there's free spirit and day to day freedoms are cherished.

 

[Weststander]

did it explain why? did it give an alternative behaviour and protocols for NHS and carehomes that would have occurred one week earlier?

None of the experts in the doc said that UK CV19 deaths would've 50% lower if the original lockdown had started 7 days earlier.

 

[keaton]

The Guardian:

Germany reported 410 deaths in 24 hours; its worst such toll since the pandemic began.
It came as the chancellor Angela Merkel met with 16 federal state leaders to discuss restrictions for the Christmas and new year holidays.


Their record in the spring was exemplary, one of the best testing systems in the world. Showing it's hard to contain the virus in democracies where there's free spirit and day to day freedoms are cherished.

Yes. But the UK's was 608 yesterday. So their worst day is still far better than where we're at now

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

The lockdown No.1 documentary on BBC2 tonight is very informative.

Among the many things I have taken from this is the estimate that there would have been 50% less deaths if Boris had locked down 1 week earlier.

The behavioural science that stated people wouldn’t adhere to the lockdown for long did not come from the behavioural science committee that reported in to SAGE, it came from elsewhere. Unbelievable.

I must have missed that part, They seemed to suggest the errors surrounding care homes was more of an issue.

 

[Weststander]

Yes. But the UK's was 608 yesterday. So their worst day is still far better than where we're at now

It's not a competition. We are allowed to talk about other nations suffering without whataboutery.

An awful pandemic across Europe and getting still worse in some countries.

Denmark, Finland and Norway the stand out nations.

 

[Weststander]

I must have missed that part, They seemed to suggest the errors surrounding care homes was more of an issue.

It was discussed with one scientist saying that was his preference, at the same time admitting that his scientist colleagues felt differently.

 

[Lyndhurst 14]

Not looking good in the States over Thanksgiving and Christmas with hospitals saying "We are on an absolutely catastrophic path”


https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/11/americas-best-prepared-hospital-nearly-overwhelmed/617156/?fbclid=IwAR0nh8hj3QQTkO8cqiAXoHYLb2-l_jpjRmP1bQEOv7lEXPE047b-smgJypM

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Parliament spitting feathers that the new tiers were made available online - on bbc and hmgov sites and prob loads more - before 11.30 announcement. As the Speaker just said, this is completely inacceptable. He also noted that all those sites have crashed due to technical problems ie the entire population trying to access them - so by accident rather than design parliament might actually end up being the first to know. Major political row brewing on this latest arse-over-tit release of information

 

[LamieRobertson]

https://www.gov.uk/government/speec...ign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=immediate

This explains ..we’ll sort of why various parts of the country are in their tier

 

[Weststander]

We holidayed in Italy in August, we came home impressed with their CV19 protocols and compliance with the CV19 laws. I only saw two people in our entire stay (arrogantly) ignoring the masks rule. It was in one of the regions hit very hard in the first wave, everyone had friends or family killed in the pandemic, as a result the authorities and public took it very seriously.

But now:


Wonder what wrong this time?

 

[darkwolf666]

We holidayed in Italy in August, we came home impressed with their CV19 protocols and compliance with the CV19 laws. I only saw two people in our entire stay (arrogantly) ignoring the masks rule. It was in one of the regions hit very hard in the first wave, everyone had friends or family killed in the pandemic, as a result the authorities and public took it very seriously.

But now:
View attachment 130831

Wonder what wrong this time?

Hmm, sorry to bang on about the same old thing but... schools went back in Italy on September 20th, which would have been part and parcel, as here, of people’s attitudes being more relaxed...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/13/older-teachers-in-italy-fear-covid-19-risks-as-schools-return

 

[Weststander]

Hmm, sorry to bang on about the same old thing but... schools went back in Italy on September 20th, which would have been part and parcel, as here, of people’s attitudes being more relaxed...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/13/older-teachers-in-italy-fear-covid-19-risks-as-schools-return

Thanks, an interesting article.

Do you listen to 5live in the daytime at all? It was insightful after 10am today, they had a real expert in; Professor Paul Hunter, a specialist on medical microbiology and emergency outbreaks.
http://epr.hpru.nihr.ac.uk/our-team/investigators/professor-paul-hunter
He answered the questions you’ve so often asked on where exactly is the virus spreading.

Although Prof Hunter had no angle, they set up the brewer Jonathan Neame (from near your patch) to argue against him.

In summary, Prof Hunter said:
1. Yes the virus does spread through schools, but it’s a balance in keeping 9M kids in good mental health, as well as it being a societal responsibility to educate all kids. (I take that only through lessons in school can all kids access).
2. They know through detailed studies overseas that the virus spreads rapidly in restaurants, pubs, gyms and hotels. Anywhere where masks aren’t worn by patrons and has more than 10 people.

Neame argued that CV19 doesn’t spread through pubs, because his staff rarely test positive, also studies show only 3% of spread has been through hospitality.

Prof Hunter’s reply was that:
- Well run pubs would protect their staff well through PPE. The spread is actually between customers in the venues, who then take CV19 home to family and elderly relatives.
- Because the hospitality sector has been shut down for much of this year, this gives the low overall spread rate.
- We know that many pubs completely circumvent the laws and had no interest in the protocols such as test and trace.

The overall message was that governments (plural) consider kids attending schools a price needing to be paid. That the pandemic would’ve been far worse had pubs, restaurants, hotels and gyms had remained open.

 

[darkwolf666]

Thanks, an interesting article.

Do you listen to 5live in the daytime at all? It was insightful after 10am today, they had a real expert in; Professor Paul Hunter, a specialist on medical microbiology and emergency outbreaks.
http://epr.hpru.nihr.ac.uk/our-team/investigators/professor-paul-hunter
He answered the questions you’ve so often asked on where exactly is the virus spreading.

Although Prof Hunter had no angle, they set up the brewer Jonathan Neame (from near your patch) to argue against him.

In summary, Prof Hunter said:
1. Yes the virus does spread through schools, but it’s a balance in keeping 9M kids in good mental health, as well as it being a societal responsibility to educate all kids. (I take that only through lessons in school can all kids access).
2. They know through detailed studies overseas that the virus spreads rapidly in restaurants, pubs, gyms and hotels. Anywhere where masks aren’t worn by patrons and has more than 10 people.

Neame argued that CV19 doesn’t spread through pubs, because his staff rarely test positive, also studies show only 3% of spread has been through hospitality.

Prof Hunter’s reply was that:
- Well run pubs would protect their staff well through PPE. The spread is actually between customers in the venues, who then take CV19 home to family and elderly relatives.
- Because the hospitality sector has been shut down for much of this year, this gives the low overall spread rate.
- We know that many pubs completely circumvent the laws and had no interest in the protocols such as test and trace.

The overall message was that governments (plural) consider kids attending schools a price needing to be paid. That the pandemic would’ve been far worse had pubs, restaurants, hotels and gyms had remained open.

No I didn’t hear that, but you (and he) have pretty much confirmed what many think, the hospitality sector has been used as leverage to keep schools open. Jonathan Neame clearly has a vested interest, as his family brewery will be struggling with the continued losses. However, his 3% infection quote is wrong, and often misquoted, the 3% actually refers to outbreaks. An outbreak is where multiple cases are reported, referring back to one venue, so clearly multiple cases means more infections.

Clearly, the professor interviewed has agreed the schools are a driver for infection, but should remain open, however even that is not as clear cut as he makes out, as schools staying open is also an economic driver as it means lower paid workers, who can’t work from home, can go to work. The fear has always been that if schools close children get passed onto elderly relatives and so the cycle goes round. The Professor won’t have been on thereto explain government policy!

 

[Rugrat]

Link to zero in on school districts. Shows some quite significant swings in numbers to the broader council areas

https://www.schoolcovidmap.org.uk/

 

[The Wizard]

That ‘firebreak’ lockdown in Wales worked then

They are now looking like being forced into another more strict lockdown just a few weeks after, whats that definition of insanity again?

 

[Driver8]

That ‘firebreak’ lockdown in Wales worked then

They are now looking like being forced into another more strict lockdown just a few weeks after, whats that definition of insanity again?

It did work as the numbers came right down but since it finished earlier this month the rate has started to increase again hence the new measures.

 

[Rugrat]

That ‘firebreak’ lockdown in Wales worked then

They are now looking like being forced into another more strict lockdown just a few weeks after, whats that definition of insanity again?

All the time a significant proportion of the population stick their fingers up there's little if any point fiddling around with the rules.

Whilst I have no time at all for our government (or their offshoots) they really are between a rock and a hard place where managing this pandemic is concerned.

Let's just hope they don't feck up the rollout of vaccine, but I've absolutely zero confidence there either

 

[The Wizard]

It did work as the numbers came right down but since it finished earlier this month the rate has started to increase again hence the new measures.

You mean things opened up and transmission went up? How surprising.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

It did work as the numbers came right down but since it finished earlier this month the rate has started to increase again hence the new measures.

Don’t they have the worst affected area in the U.K.

I think Wizards point was, it was never going to be a 2 week lockdown