Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[BLOCK F]

Will you please stop banging on about missed cancer treatments, this is not a metric for measuring how successful or bad the response to Covid has been...

It is undeniable that had we not had a lockdown the death figures from Covid would have been a lot higher and the currently unexplained excess deaths even higher.

PS please show me where I have said the majority of the excess deaths were Covid related? I have consistently asked questions as to what exactly the cause of deaths have been, but no-one seems to know!

According to today's Times, there were 25,472 excess deaths in private homes in England between December 28th and September 11th. The figures show that the leading cause of death in private homes was ischaemic heart disease and that deaths from prostate cancer doubled.Deaths from dementia and Alzheimer's have risen by79% during the pandemic, with 2095 excess deaths from these diseases at home between March 14th and September 11th.
The majority of excess deaths in private homes in England were among men and women aged 70 to 89. Deaths of men at home from heart disease rose
26% compared to the 5 year average, with fewer dying in hospital.
Deaths from prostate cancer at home rose by 53%, compared to the 5 year average, with fewer dying in hospital.
For women the leading cause of death was heart disease, accounting for 10.5% of all deaths in private homes.
Deaths from dementia and Alzheimer's of women in private homes increased by 75% compared to the 5 year average, but deaths from the diseases in hospitals fell by 40.6%.
According to the ONS, while deaths in hospital and care homes have dropped below the 5 year average since the initial peak of the coronavirus pandemic, we've consistently seen deaths in private homes remain well above the 5 year average. We have seen an overall increase of deaths as well as a redistribution of various causes of death.For instance, while deaths of heart disease are below average in hospital, it has been above average at home. Likewise for prostate cancer for males and dementia and Alzheimer's in women. Unlike the high numbers of deaths involving Covid in hospitals and care homes,the majority of deaths in private homes are unrelated to Covid 19.

 

[beorhthelm]

OK, I'll bite then - exactly why are there so many excess home deaths on a daily basis? What are their causes of death? Are they just all too scare to seek treatment at their doctors/hospital? Why are they dying so quickly?

Someone must know the answer to these questions?

in part because they are scared or worried to seek treatment, or are not taken to hosptial. for the most part this is simple a change of location, the excess deaths increase in homes, excess deaths reduce in hospitals and carehomes. net is about flat.

 

[Yoda]

This track and trace is now becoming a personal nightmare. We've all heard stories of Bugs Bunny or Lionel Messi signing into a pub that we may have been in for Track and Trace purposes, but today took a weird and very annoying turn for me today.

Some git has obviously made up a contact number and given it when entering a pub in Thirsk on Friday (that number given or made up coincidentally happened to match my mobile)

Today I've had 8 calls in four hours wanting to speak to a Mr Ian Carter (who as you've probably guessed is not me - I think my user ID here gives you a clue), and they have all told me to self isolate for 14 days as I've supposedly come into contact with a positive Covid positive person in Thirsk on Fiday (I don't even know where Thirsk is).

I've tried to explain to all the call handlers that I am not Mr Carter and my number must have been given fraudulently (one agent did seem to agree when I clarified to them where I live in Shoreham, Sussex) although I've still been told to self isolate. Ironically I haven't left the home since last Wednesday (when I went shopping in Worthing), so how I can have been in Thirsk (wherever that is) on Friday is beyond me.

I plan to just carry on but could I now realistically be fined?

The number of calls received has been intrusive this afternoon but I've also been warned I'll be risking a fine if I leave my home in the next 2 weeks.

Surely any fine wouldn't be perusable against yourself as it's for this Mr Ian Carter?

Having done a quick google, Thrisk is in North Yorkshire half way between York & Middlesbrough on the A19.

 

[sparkie]

This track and trace is now becoming a personal nightmare. We've all heard stories of Bugs Bunny or Lionel Messi signing into a pub that we may have been in for Track and Trace purposes, but today took a weird and very annoying turn for me today.

Some git has obviously made up a contact number and given it when entering a pub in Thirsk on Friday (that number given or made up coincidentally happened to match my mobile)

Today I've had 8 calls in four hours wanting to speak to a Mr Ian Carter (who as you've probably guessed is not me - I think my user ID here gives you a clue), and they have all told me to self isolate for 14 days as I've supposedly come into contact with a positive Covid positive person in Thirsk on Fiday (I don't even know where Thirsk is).

I've tried to explain to all the call handlers that I am not Mr Carter and my number must have been given fraudulently (one agent did seem to agree when I clarified to them where I live in Shoreham, Sussex) although I've still been told to self isolate. Ironically I haven't left the home since last Wednesday (when I went shopping in Worthing), so how I can have been in Thirsk (wherever that is) on Friday is beyond me.

I plan to just carry on but could I now realistically be fined?

The number of calls received has been intrusive this afternoon but I've also been warned I'll be risking a fine if I leave my home in the next 2 weeks.

Ian Carter will be risking a fine and they'll have to take him to court to get it. Ignore it, it's not you.

 

[A1X]

So what’s the excuse for cancellation of ops/appointments then ?

Availability of medical staff, availability of ancillary staff, testing capacity in labs, staff availability in labs...

 

[darkwolf666]

According to today's Times, there were 25,472 excess deaths in private homes in England between December 28th and September 11th. The figures show that the leading cause of death in private homes was ischaemic heart disease and that deaths from prostate cancer doubled.Deaths from dementia and Alzheimer's have risen by79% during the pandemic, with 2095 excess deaths from these diseases at home between March 14th and September 11th.
The majority of excess deaths in private homes in England were among men and women aged 70 to 89. Deaths of men at home from heart disease rose
26% compared to the 5 year average, with fewer dying in hospital.
Deaths from prostate cancer at home rose by 53%, compared to the 5 year average, with fewer dying in hospital.
For women the leading cause of death was heart disease, accounting for 10.5% of all deaths in private homes.
Deaths from dementia and Alzheimer's of women in private homes increased by 75% compared to the 5 year average, but deaths from the diseases in hospitals fell by 40.6%.
According to the ONS, while deaths in hospital and care homes have dropped below the 5 year average since the initial peak of the coronavirus pandemic, we've consistently seen deaths in private homes remain well above the 5 year average. We have seen an overall increase of deaths as well as a redistribution of various causes of death.For instance, while deaths of heart disease are below average in hospital, it has been above average at home. Likewise for prostate cancer for males and dementia and Alzheimer's in women. Unlike the high numbers of deaths involving Covid in hospitals and care homes,the majority of deaths in private homes are unrelated to Covid 19.

Thank you for that, very informative.

These are expet deaths against a 5 year average - So in a nutshell, the number of deaths at home has increased as people haven't been dying in hospital of the same conditions?

So, it's not new, unexpected deaths, like those dying of Covid? Just a different location!

Or is the inference that those that died at home did so without treatment?

 

[Albion Dan]

Seems to be loads of hospital admission hysteria getting whipped up again. The best tool the media seems to use to terrify everyone.

Then then this report shows London our densest city says admissions far lower than first wave. A friend of mine works in Lewisham hospital A&E and saying still quiet there and tragically the rest of the hospital still not serving anywhere near what it was pre covid. The article also shows how much better mortality rates are this time as doctors as far better at treating the virus.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/lon...ew-high-hospitalisations-latest-a4572139.html

 

[The Wizard]

Dark wolf, I know we have come to blows before, but please, ‘will people stop banging on about missed cancer appointments’ is a horrific thing to say, as you know my family member passed away from Bowel cancer during August after having her treatment stopped in early April, and listen she was in her eighties I understand people have to take priority, we accepted that. It was just horrible timing but we are seeing so many people, even young people dying of cancer that could have been treated. It’s horrific.

You also need to think about people with the undiagnosed cancers, I had a ‘scare’ last year which I went and got checked and the not knowing in the two weeks before my check up was akin to mental torture, the worry and stress this is causing people, hundreds of thousands of people all over the U.K. is not to be underestimated. It’s torturous for many people who have had treatments stopped, you know you have something inside you growing that could potentially kill you.

Missed cancer treatments are a useful metric of whether lockdown is causing more harm than good because we know the number that ‘normally’ are diagnosed with cancer and the numbers are WELL down on usual. The thousands of people add up my friend, for sure Lockdown will reduce COVID deaths, that I will not argue as it’s fact, but all the other numbers matter as well, and that’s what I think people need to think about, there is so many ‘side effects’ of stopping covid.

26000 more deaths at home than usual(Only 3% of those are COVID related)
Cancer diagnosis well down on usual
Tens of thousands of women missed breast cancer screenings
Very difficult to get face to face appointments with the doctor
Mental health issues skyrocketing
Long term economic depression

I can’t even list all the things, every other aspect of health is being neglected.

 

[dazzer6666]

Seems to be loads of hospital admission hysteria getting whipped up again. The best tool the media seems to use to terrify everyone.

Then then this report shows London our densest city says admissions far lower than first wave. A friend of mine works in Lewisham hospital A&E and saying still quiet there and tragically the rest of the hospital still not serving anywhere near what it was pre covid. The article also shows how much better mortality rates are this time as doctors as far better at treating the virus.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/lon...ew-high-hospitalisations-latest-a4572139.html

Daughter’s hospital has seen hardly any increase.....those they do have are tending to be a bit younger this time (typically 40-60 rather than 75+) but all seems very much under control.

 

[darkwolf666]

Dark wolf, I know we have come to blows before, but please, ‘will people stop banging on about missed cancer appointments’ is a horrific thing to say, as you know my family member passed away from Bowel cancer during August after having her treatment stopped in early April, and listen she was in her eighties I understand people have to take priority, we accepted that. It was just horrible timing but we are seeing so many people, even young people dying of cancer that could have been treated. It’s horrific.

You also need to think about people with the undiagnosed cancers, I had a ‘scare’ last year which I went and got checked and the not knowing in the two weeks before my check up was akin to mental torture, the worry and stress this is causing people, hundreds of thousands of people all over the U.K. is not to be underestimated. It’s torturous for many people who have had treatments stopped, you know you have something inside you growing that could potentially kill you.

Missed cancer treatments are a useful metric of whether lockdown is causing more harm than good because we know the number that ‘normally’ are diagnosed with cancer and the numbers are WELL down on usual. The thousands of people add up my friend, for sure Lockdown will reduce COVID deaths, that I will not argue as it’s fact, but all the other numbers matter as well, and that’s what I think people need to think about, there is so many ‘side effects’ of stopping covid.

26000 more deaths at home than usual(Only 3% of those are COVID related)
Cancer diagnosis well down on usual
Tens of thousands of women missed breast cancer screenings
Very difficult to get face to face appointments with the doctor
Mental health issues skyrocketing
Long term economic depression

I can’t even list all the things, every other aspect of health is being neglected.

I apologise for my “banging on” reference. I am just sick of cancer treatment being used as the means to measure everything. Like you I have experience of cancer during Covid and feel that those giving treatment are being given a rough deal.

It is more than possible the hospital my wife attends may be an exception, but the staff in the Oncology unit have said they have treated as many people on a daily basis since March as before.

Screening and diagnosis have clearly dropped, but I haven’t seen any figures to say that actual treatments, like chemotherapy has - clearly there are anecdotal cases like yours that say I am wrong, but being a statistics man I would like to see the figures to show the drop in actual treatment.

As for causing more harm than good, well dead is dead whether it be from Covid or other causes. It’s a hard act to balance!

I really wish I knew the answers...

 

[Machiavelli]

241 deaths.

The exponential trajectory is getting nasty now.

The 2nd wave will dwarf the 1st one.

21,000 new cases too, which strongly suggests that in two weeks time, that number will be far, far higher. I so hope I'm wrong in this, but the trajectory is deeply concerning.

 

[Lower West Stander]

21,000 new cases too, which strongly suggests that in two weeks time, that number will be far, far higher. I so hope I'm wrong in this, but the trajectory is deeply concerning.

67 yesterday was it?

How do we know those 241 people died of COVID?

How many non Covid deaths were there today?

I’m at the point where the information we are being given is so one sided, I’m starting to question everything that’s being reported by a highly malleable press.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Springal]

“A very large, very comprehensive study shows that 2020 has had nearly 300,000 deaths more than "normal." Keep in mind that people are not driving motor vehicles nearly as much as they used to.

There are huge percentage changes in the excesses deaths of young adults 25-44 and in Hispanic, Black, and Asian, Native American minorities.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm#suggestedcitation “

 

[ManOfSussex]

21,000 new cases too, which strongly suggests that in two weeks time, that number will be far, far higher. I so hope I'm wrong in this, but the trajectory is deeply concerning.

Nah, the nightclubs will be open in a fortnight, we'll be able to stand at the bar in the pub again, point at at a picture of Nicola Sturgeon in The Daily Mail whilst propping it up and call her 'despicable' too and it'll be a full crowd for the Liverpool game at the end of the month without face coverings. (Political correctness gone mad, aren't they?) Just shield the vulnerable, post some figures up and and a weekend away in Lanzarote is in sight before Christmas.............

 

[atomised]

Nah, the nightclubs will be open in a fortnight, we'll be able to stand at the bar in the pub again, point at at a picture of Nicola Sturgeon in The Daily Mail whilst propping it up and call her 'despicable' too and it'll be a full crowd for the Liverpool game at the end of the month without face coverings. (Political correctness gone mad, aren't they?) Just shield the vulnerable, post some figures up and and a weekend away in Lanzarote is in sight before Christmas.............

The level of sarcasm and anger on here towards others is awful today. Seems worse than ever

 

[ManOfSussex]

The level of sarcasm and anger on here towards others is awful today. Seems worse than ever

It's a pretty bad day all-in-all and the figures released just underline it all. Dressing them up doesn't make a difference - we're in for a long grim winter.

 

[beorhthelm]

67 yesterday was it?

How do we know those 241 people died of COVID?

How many non Covid deaths were there today?

I’m at the point where the information we are being given is so one sided, I’m starting to question everything that’s being reported by a highly malleable press.

you mean like giving an isolated data point to prove something?

 

[Yoda]

67 yesterday was it?

How do we know those 241 people died of COVID?

How many non Covid deaths were there today?

I’m at the point where the information we are being given is so one sided, I’m starting to question everything that’s being reported by a highly malleable press.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I'll refer you to my earlier post:

Don't just look at the reported date, look at the date of death (and for cases, date of specimen). It give a much more accurate trend of how things are progressing. When you look at these, it almost looks like they have held back over 100 from the previous three days. Whether on purpose (for the shock response it clearly got from yourself) or just a lag due to weekend reporting, we will never know.

 

[darkwolf666]

The level of sarcasm and anger on here towards others is awful today. Seems worse than ever

I would just like to hold my hand up and say sorry if I have offended anyone today or over the last couple of days.

My wife is having a massive wobble with regards her cancer treatment. It’s a strange one, the cancer she has means she’s not needed any surgical treatment, and since starting her chemotherapy has felt “well”. She has almost forgotten she has cancer, between her 2 monthly chemo sessions.

2 days ago she had a call from her radiotherapy consultant, who is a jolly enough fellow, but threw into the conversation, of course as you have Non Hodgkin Lymphoma you know we cant cure you... Yes, she did know this, but it felt like a bit of a slap round the face for her, and has probably made me even more spikey than normal.

Then I come on here and see people squabbling over semantics as to how, where and when people died - and sort of blew. Please, please, please remember that everyone of those deaths, whatever age, are someone’s loved ones and please don’t trot out the “ah, but they had an underlying health condition” to justify their death. My wife has an underlying health condition, and at just 59 doesn’t deserve to die or have her death dismissed as another statistic.

Sorry, I will now retreat back to my safe place...

 

[atomised]

I would just like to hold my hand up and say sorry if I have offended anyone today or over the last couple of days.

My wife is having a massive wobble with regards her cancer treatment. It’s a strange one, the cancer she has means she’s not needed any surgical treatment, and since starting her chemotherapy has felt “well”. She has almost forgotten she has cancer, between her 2 monthly chemo sessions.

2 days ago she had a call from her radiotherapy consultant, who is a jolly enough fellow, but threw into the conversation, of course as you have Non Hodgkin Lymphoma you know we cant cure you... Yes, she did know this, but it felt like a bit of a slap round the face for her, and has probably made me even more spikey than normal.

Then I come on here and see people squabbling over semantics as to how, where and when people died - and sort of blew. Please, please, please remember that everyone of those deaths, whatever age, are someone’s loved ones and please don’t trot out the “ah, but they had an underlying health condition” to justify their death. My wife has an underlying health condition, and at just 59 doesn’t deserve to die or have her death dismissed as another statistic.

Sorry, I will now retreat back to my safe place...

Having lost someone I knew to this damn thing today I'm.probably oversensitive myself this evening.