Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[LamieRobertson]

Well, yes. But I could have said 10 deaths. 100. 1,000. 5,000. 10,000, 1 million. The number doesn't actually matter. Use whichever number you want - big or small.

Regardless of how many people are dying, no additional restrictions are necessary according do your man, as long as the health service isn't overwhelmed.

We were losing close to 1,000 a day at our worst back in early April, and I don't believe our heath service was overwhelmed. If that were to happen again, my interpretation of his stated strategy would be that we don't need to do anything different, and no further restrictions would be required.

I don't know what you think my narrative is here, it's simply that I think this bloke has let his little bit of twitter fame go to his head somewhat.

Well I beg to disagree ...obviously when you use a figure like five thousand a day it’s a lot more emotive than say ten...we don’t seem to be seeing equal attention to the consequences of the action being taken by this government

I don’t see the problem with questioning any strategy and taking the guys ‘tweeting’ I don’t see that ‘fame has gone to his head ...as regards to the use of the word narrative..maybe that’s the wrong term...i was kind of taking into account an earlier exchange...but I’m probably wrong so withdraw that remark....I’ll end it there if you agree ..we seem to have different views as regards to this particular matter and I can’t see anything to be gained by continuing on this occasion...but by all means respond as you wish

 

[Bozza]

Israel are probably winning (losing) the Crisis Country Cup right now.

- Hospitals full: check
- Turning away sick Covid-19 people as there are no beds: check
- Turning regular wards into Covid wards which will deny other sick people care: check
- Hurriedly building field hospitals to help with the overflow: check
- Already in lockdown with schools etc closed: check

We too could have all this, and more, if we just let the virus do its thing.

 

[Bozza]

Well I beg to disagree ...obviously when you use a figure like five thousand a day it’s a lot more emotive than say ten...we don’t seem to be seeing equal attention to the consequences of the action being taken by this government

I don’t see the problem with questioning any strategy and taking the guys ‘tweeting’ I don’t see that ‘fame has gone to his head ...as regards to the use of the word narrative..maybe that’s the wrong term...i was kind of taking into account an earlier exchange...but I’m probably wrong so withdraw that remark....I’ll end it there if you agree ..we seem to have different views as regards to this particular matter and I can’t see anything to be gained by continuing on this occasion...but by all means respond as you wish

I don't know what you think I think, but I'll try and say quickly...

The virus may have mutated (I don't think it has), we may have widespread immunity in the population through prior infection/T-cells/whatever (I don't think we have) or there may be "something else going on with the virus" that means it spreading won't yield horrendous consequences. Any of those may be in play, but we have absolutely nothing approaching certainty with any of them, so to base public health policy for a country of 66m people on these hopes is just not possible.

To compound this, is the "stopping a tanker" effect. You can't just try something and then apply the brakes if it doesn't work out. Well, you can, but like a tanker you're going to have to wait a long time before things come to a stop - many, many weeks.

I certainly do not want, nor am I advocating, a lockdown akin to what we had earlier this year. That won't do anyone any good at all.

I think we need to find the blend of measures that permits as much economic, educational and social activity as possible whilst keeping a lid on viral spread, recognising there are multiple very positive-looking chances of a viable vaccine in the not-too-distant future. This will involve some sacrifice and pain, certainly, but I can't see any path out of this that allows us all to sail off into the sunset trouble-free.

Like everyone else, I just want to get the hell out of this craziness as soon as possible.

 

[Weststander]

I’ve thought again about your post....from what I can see you’ve compared apples with oranges.....positive cases with hospitalisations...both graphs appear right

We can both sleep soundly now

 

[LamieRobertson]

Israel are probably winning (losing) the Crisis Country Cup right now.

- Hospitals full: check
- Turning away sick Covid-19 people as there are no beds: check
- Turning regular wards into Covid wards which will deny other sick people care: check
- Hurriedly building field hospitals to help with the overflow: check
- Already in lockdown with schools etc closed: check

We too could have all this, and more, if we just let the virus do its thing.

An interesting read to go along with what you have typed

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/how-israel-went-from-right-to-wrong-on-coronavirus-641197

 

[LamieRobertson]

I don't know what you think I think, but I'll try and say quickly...

The virus may have mutated (I don't think it has), we may have widespread immunity in the population through prior infection/T-cells/whatever (I don't think we have) or there may be "something else going on with the virus" that means it spreading won't yield horrendous consequences. Any of those may be in play, but we have absolutely nothing approaching certainty with any of them, so to base public health policy for a country of 66m people on these hopes is just not possible.

To compound this, is the "stopping a tanker" effect. You can't just try something and then apply the brakes if it doesn't work out. Well, you can, but like a tanker you're going to have to wait a long time before things come to a stop - many, many weeks.

I certainly do not want, nor am I advocating, a lockdown akin to what we had earlier this year. That won't do anyone any good at all.

I think we need to find the blend of measures that permits as much economic, educational and social activity as possible whilst keeping a lid on viral spread, recognising there are multiple very positive-looking chances of a viable vaccine in the not-too-distant future. This will involve some sacrifice and pain, certainly, but I can't see any path out of this that allows us all to sail off into the sunset trouble-free.

Like everyone else, I just want to get the hell out of this craziness as soon as possible.

 

[Guinness Boy]

This.

Anyone who includes 'protect those at serious risk' in any rant gets my attention.

Boris is an absolute clown. He is managing to destroy the economy AND put vulnerable people at risk of death at the same time. He couldn't possibly have done a worse job. And there is no sign of any sort of realisation. Just more mad initiatives. Protect the vulnerable, everone else back to work! If not right this second then in a week's time. Maybe 2 weeks (just to be sure the deaths don't start to rocket - my guess is the wont meaning the virus has mutated).

Look at the data, think, act. Don't filter it through a political committee chaired by Cummings to work out how best to maximise a good look for the tories.

As an aside I just heard the Orient chairman on the radio claim that by paying for tests (that found 18 of his staff 'positive') he has lost £1.5 million owing to the Spuds cancellation. But if he had done all he needed to do at the time (after 3 positive tests) which, legally, is **** all, the game would have gone ahead. He claims he is being punished for being responsible and blames the government for potentially putting clubs out of business.

This nation....a laughing stock run by dishonest self-serving moral and intellectual pygmies.

I know I've had "quite a journey" on this thread but back in June you were saying this.

I had a peek on the good news thread. I almost posted a comment but decided 'what a load of soppy optimistic bollocks' was not appropriate for that thread.

Today's numbers don't look great to me....

View attachment 124369

You've given a "this" to someone who seems to be advocating living as normal and taking the consequences, and I didn't think that was your position. Surely we DO need to be responsible, and take reasonable action? I think what many of us are violently agreeing on is that Boris is incapable of reasonable action.

 

[Megazone]

Israel are probably winning (losing) the Crisis Country Cup right now.

- Hospitals full: check
- Turning away sick Covid-19 people as there are no beds: check
- Turning regular wards into Covid wards which will deny other sick people care: check
- Hurriedly building field hospitals to help with the overflow: check
- Already in lockdown with schools etc closed: check

We too could have all this, and more, if we just let the virus do its thing.

Israel does have a very good health service (in top 10 ranked in the world) so that is a concern.

Hopefully we'll do what they're doing in Madrid and then problem solved.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I heard the Orient interview. The foregone cup game windfall will be £150,000 if it’s never televised.

Orient lose millions a year anyway, he said the additional lockdown losses will be £2.5m.

He didn’t come across angry at all. He praised the huge cash injection from furlough, but was at his wits end on financing this season.

Sage Simon Jordan turned this around, with two big criticisms of the football industry:

1. The EFL kicked the can of wildly excessive player wages down the road this year, when it could’ve got to grips.

2. The huge transfer fees changing hands this summer and vast contracts being awarded eg at Arsenal, don’t look good for an industry pleading poverty.

I may have misheard some of the interview. Yes he was sanguine. But he did have a go at the government. I think the word 'blame' was mentioned. And he certainly made it clear that had he not tested his wider staff the game would have gone ahead. I have no words.....

I watched Boris gawping at the autocue and reading the text Cummings had written him, earlier. I was particularly taken by the fisting for emphasis.

It was one of the most craven and absurd political performances I have witnessed from a PM since the 'here is the paper which bears his name upon it' declaration. If Boris were the Albion's manager he'd be busy now working out his tactics and line up for Newcastle away.

 

[Weststander]

I don't know what you think I think, but I'll try and say quickly...

The virus may have mutated (I don't think it has), we may have widespread immunity in the population through prior infection/T-cells/whatever (I don't think we have) or there may be "something else going on with the virus" that means it spreading won't yield horrendous consequences. Any of those may be in play, but we have absolutely nothing approaching certainty with any of them, so to base public health policy for a country of 66m people on these hopes is just not possible.

To compound this, is the "stopping a tanker" effect. You can't just try something and then apply the brakes if it doesn't work out. Well, you can, but like a tanker you're going to have to wait a long time before things come to a stop - many, many weeks.

I certainly do not want, nor am I advocating, a lockdown akin to what we had earlier this year. That won't do anyone any good at all.

I think we need to find the blend of measures that permits as much economic, educational and social activity as possible whilst keeping a lid on viral spread, recognising there are multiple very positive-looking chances of a viable vaccine in the not-too-distant future. This will involve some sacrifice and pain, certainly, but I can't see any path out of this that allows us all to sail off into the sunset trouble-free.

Like everyone else, I just want to get the hell out of this craziness as soon as possible.

Regarding your second paragraph, you touched I think on this (an emerging pattern of high cases, surprisingly low deaths) many months ago in somewhere such as the USA Covid or Florida threads.

Possible explanations were mentioned and virologists have discussed this matter since. A provisional consensus that; young people are being tested in large numbers (who generally survive CV19) so skewing the stats, older people now stay indoors isolating far more than they did, and the benefits of everyone washing their hands more and wearing masks. The last two points should also reduce the number of deaths from Influenza.

Not scientifically proven, but it seems plausible.

 

[LamieRobertson]

A breakdown of today’s figures ...perhaps useful if it was reported like this everyday?

Of the 4,187 PCR positives reported today - in England:

East Midlands - 230
East of England - 189
London - 354
North East - 537
North West - 1,381
South East - 187
South West - 132
West Midlands - 590
Yorkshire and The Humber - 505

 

[Bozza]

Regarding your second paragraph, you touched I think on this (an emerging pattern of high cases, surprisingly low deaths) many months ago in somewhere such as the USA Covid or Florida threads.

Possible explanations were mentioned and virologists have discussed this matter since. A provisional consensus that; young people are being tested in large numbers (who generally survive CV19) so skewing the stats, older people now stay indoors isolating far more than they did, and the benefits of everyone washing their hands more and wearing masks. The last two points should also reduce the number of deaths from Influenza.

Not scientifically proven, but it seems plausible.

Certainly makes sense - from the very beginning my own observations have been that youngsters were the worst flouters of the rules, not that I can blame them particularly.

One stat I found interested in yesterday's briefing was that if we see cases continue to double at the current rate we could see 50,000 cases per day by mid-October and 200 deaths a day a month later. (Please don't quibble on the rationale behind these numbers - it's not relevant to my point).

At the height of the last wave, it is estimated we had c100,000 infections per day and we were at c1,000 deaths per day. If those numbers are accurate, and nothing had changed, then you'd probably expect 500 deaths per day to come from those supposed 50,000 infections. So why the difference? I'm guessing it's a combination of better protection of the most vulnerable, including those in care homes - meaning more infections are those who will do better, and improved treatments available to those who do end up in hospital.

Regardless, it feels a positive that we don't believe that cases will convert to deaths at anything like the same rate we experienced previously.

 

[Megazone]

I know I've had "quite a journey" on this thread but back in June you were saying this.



You've given a "this" to someone who seems to be advocating living as normal and taking the consequences, and I didn't think that was your position. Surely we DO need to be responsible, and take reasonable action? I think what many of us are violently agreeing on is that Boris is incapable of reasonable action.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I know I've had "quite a journey" on this thread but back in June you were saying this.



You've given a "this" to someone who seems to be advocating living as normal and taking the consequences, and I didn't think that was your position. Surely we DO need to be responsible, and take reasonable action? I think what many of us are violently agreeing on is that Boris is incapable of reasonable action.

First, the 'this' came with the health warning that there has to be the proviso to protect the vulnerable. Quite often the 'back to normal' contingent made no mention of that, which made my piss boil. The chap to whom I replied did add the priviso. He may not have done so in past posts and if so I would have dug him out for it at the time. Now, credit where it's due.

I also think that looking across the world, numbers seem to go up and down regardless of 'steps'. I think that having only 6 contacts, or whatever Swansman does at the weekend, is irrelevant. It isn't what, it's who (the yoof, now, go for it, but geriatrics like me, stay safe). With a mutated virus (see below) the new 'steps' are just silly. They wouldn't have been in April with a more lethal virus, though. But back then HMG were slow to act (understandable) then inept when the data screamed 'killer virus'.

My thinking now is this. Covid is about 1/200th as lethal as it was in April (cases to deaths at first peak vs now). All the numbers suggest this is now a different strain (much less lethal - as I have opined frequently recently). But those 20 a day who are dying now are humans that need to be kept safe. We know who they are (roughly - so we can protect them and others too - nealy all of them are retired). Meantime everyone else should be back at work....with the proviso not just yet - we must watch the death numbers like hawks for 1-2 weeks to be sure there isn't some sort of lag artefact due to earlier case identification, now vs Spring.

And yes, it is always right to change a view, when circumstances and data change. In Spring at peak we had 5000 new cases a day and 1000 deaths. It is now 4000 and 20. If it is 200 deaths a day next week I will change my mind again. But it thrills me not to see my mind is swifter than HMG's. I have a lifetime of being right (sadly I don't always follow my own best advice) and am sanguine about being wrong, and will admit so when the data prove it. Presently I think I am right to consider that livelihoods, homes and futures are now about to be needlessly lost because HMG can't see its arse from its elbow.

All that aside, I hope you are recovering. I heard a poor woman on the radio today who was ill weeks ago and is still in a shocking state. If only we had gone draconian in early March Instead, dither then, dither again, hubris when the sun shone, and Corporal Jones style panic now. We should all be angry (if we are still alive and well enough, or well paid enough, or still being paid).



Edit: I was a bit taken aback by your comments. Reading my post back, you may have read this: "Protect the vulnerable, everone else back to work! " to mean that I was saying this is HMG's plan. It isn't. This is my suggestion. Apologies for any ambiguoty.

 

[Bozza]

A breakdown of today’s figures ...perhaps useful if it was reported like this everyday?

Of the 4,187 PCR positives reported today - in England:

East Midlands - 230
East of England - 189
London - 354
North East - 537
North West - 1,381
South East - 187
South West - 132
West Midlands - 590
Yorkshire and The Humber - 505

One thing to note about the daily reported positive case stats, and this is similar to the death stats, is that most of them didn't happen yesterday/in the last 24 hours. They'll relate to specimens taken over a period of time - most being in the last 3-4 days, with a few stragglers from older dates.

So although today's reported total was 4,926 positive cases, only 60 of those relate to tests taken yesterday.

In short, the reported daily case total does not quite tell the full tale. At the time of typing this, 18th September is the highest recent date with 3,772 positive specimens taken, although this may still rise a bit over coming days.

 

[Weststander]

A breakdown of today’s figures ...perhaps useful if it was reported like this everyday?

Of the 4,187 PCR positives reported today - in England:

East Midlands - 230
East of England - 189
London - 354
North East - 537
North West - 1,381
South East - 187
South West - 132
West Midlands - 590
Yorkshire and The Humber - 505

Which supports the lack of localised lockdowns down South throughout. A third of England’s population live in London and the SE, yet just 13% of cases.

Well done the civilised South.

Whilst in February/March, naturally London was the epicentre, then the West Midlands, Manchester and Glasgow conurbations.

 

[Ethelwulf]

Boris is showing himself to be out of depth as PM and Hancock is a disaster as health secretary.

God help us

 

[LamieRobertson]

One thing to note about the daily reported positive case stats, and this is similar to the death stats, is that most of them didn't happen yesterday/in the last 24 hours. They'll relate to specimens taken over a period of time - most being in the last 3-4 days, with a few stragglers from older dates.

So although today's reported total was 4,926 positive cases, only 60 of those relate to tests taken yesterday.

In short, the reported daily case total does not quite tell the full tale. At the time of typing this, 18th September is the highest recent date with 3,772 positive specimens taken, although this may still rise a bit over coming days.

Yes...bit like the published mortality figure (as you’ve said)...various dates which is confusing..is your 4926 for the whole of UK?

 

[Bozza]

Yes...bit like the published mortality figure (as you’ve said)...various dates which is confusing..is your 4926 for the whole of UK?

I believe so, yes. I knew a number of 4,9xx had been reported on the news earlier and it's on the dashboard now - https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases