Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[vegster]

NY Post

Nations are closing borders, stocks are plummeting and a New York Times headline reads: “The Coronavirus Has Put the World’s Economy in Survival Mode.” Both political parties have realized the crisis could severely impact the November elections — House, Senate, presidency. And sacré bleu, they’ve even shuttered the Louvre!

Some of these reactions are understandable, much of it pure hysteria. Meanwhile, the spread of the virus continues to slow.

More than 18,000 Americans have died from this season’s generic flu so far, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In 2018, the CDC estimated, there were 80,000 flu deaths. That’s against 19 coronavirus deaths so far, from about 470 cases.

Worldwide, there have been about 3,400 coronavirus deaths, out of about 100,000 identified cases. Flu, by comparison, grimly reaps about 291,000 to 646,000 annually.

China is the origin of the virus and still accounts for over 80 percent of cases and deaths. But its cases peaked and began *declining more than a month ago, according to data presented by the Canadian epidemiologist who spearheaded the World Health Organization’s coronavirus mission to China. Fewer than 200 new cases are reported daily, down from a peak of 4,000.

Subsequent countries will follow this same pattern, in what’s called Farr’s Law. First formulated in 1840 and ignored in *every epidemic hysteria since, the law states that epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern or bell-shaped curve. AIDS, SARS, Ebola — they all followed that pattern. So does seasonal flu each year.

Clearly, flu is vastly more contagious than the new coronavirus, as the WHO has noted. Consider that the first known coronavirus cases date back to early December, and since then, the virus has *afflicted fewer people in total than flu does in a few days. Oh, and why are there no flu quarantines? Because it’s so contagious, it would be impossible.

As for death rates, as I first noted in these pages on Jan. 24, you can’t employ simple math — as everyone is doing — and look at deaths versus cases because those are *reported cases. With both flu and assuredly with coronavirus, the great majority of those infected have symptoms so mild — if any — that they don’t seek medical attention and don’t get counted in the caseload.

Furthermore, those calculating rates *ignore the importance of good health care. Given that the vast majority of cases have occurred in a country with poor health care, that’s going to dramatically exaggerate the death rate.

The rate also varies tremendously according to age, with a Chinese government analysis showing 0.2 percent deaths below age 40 but 14.8 percent above 80. A study published last month in the Journal of the American Medical Association found zero deaths worldwide among children 9 and under. Zero.


State Department tells Americans to stay off cruises during coronavirus crisis
Like the flu, the coronavirus is afflicting high-risk groups: the elderly, those with *underlying health conditions like diabetes or heart disease and those with compromised immune systems. Are there exceptions? Sure. But that’s the case with almost every complex biological phenomenon of the kind.

More good news. This month, the Northern Hemisphere, which includes the countries with the most cases, starts heating up. Almost all respiratory viruses hate warm and moist weather. That’s why flu dies out in America every year by May at the latest and probably why Latin America has reported only 25 coronavirus cases. The Philippines, where I live, has about a third of the US population, but it’s so damned hot and humid here, so far we have had no confirmed cases of internal transmission.

Am I right in thinking there is a " Little Italy" in New York ? If so, the New York Post might be surprised to hear what is going on in the Bigger Italy, they seem to have picked up a rather nasty little 'flu this year, still, it's warming up in a couple of months so nothing to worry about. Unless you live there.

 

[Nobby]

NHS England has confirmed the sixth death in the UK relating to COVID-19 coronavirus

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51812326

The decision to delay closing schools and introduce other strict measures to combat coronavirus has been defended by England's deputy chief medical officer.

Dr Jenny Harries said experts are assessing new cases on an hourly basis to achieve a "balanced response".

It comes as a man in his early 80s became the sixth person with the virus to die in the UK.

Meanwhile, many airlines cut thousands of flights, including to and from Italy, in the wake of the outbreak.

According to the latest figures, there were 319 confirmed cases as of 09:00 GMT on Monday.

The latest death happened on Monday evening and was a man with underlying health conditions who was being looked after at Watford General Hospital, the NHS said.

Dr Harries said the vast majority of those diagnosed with coronavirus in Britain are "pretty well" but that they may "feel a bit rough for a few days".

She told BBC Breakfast new government measures could follow as UK cases begin to rise rapidly over the next two weeks.

She added that people with flu-like symptoms will be advised to self-isolate within 10 to 14 days and, at the same time, significant increases in the number of cases are likely to begin.

Dr Harries said cancelling big outdoor events like football matches would not necessarily be a decision supported by science.

"The virus will not survive very long outside," she said. "Many outdoor events, particularly, are relatively safe."

Bizarre - surely it will in the bogs of the West Upper and if so why is everyone else cancelling crowded sports events?

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

NY Post.

Leaving aside the flawed rationale of that article, i posted yesterday the flu figures for Italy to Jan 23rd.

2.8 million diagnosed with seasonal flu since October 2019, 240 deaths in just shy of 4 months.

Coronavirus to yesterday, 9,100 diagnosed, 464 deaths in 17 days. And still rising.

Not 'just like flu'

 

[The Clamp]

Oh darn holiday booked for Sicily, supposed to be leaving 4th April, not sure what to do, as the measures are currently in force until the 3rd of April, so I am not sure we can officially apply to cancel or get refunds yet.

Who will be the first NSC user to contract the virus I wonder...

I almost guarantee it’ll be me , after my posts on here!

 

[Titanic]

That argument, will unfortunately soon be put to bed.

I posted this once already but if youve 20 mins time and missed it, Richard Hatchet is a leading US virologist and previous advisor to both George W and Clinton. Listen to what this real expert says.

"Overall, I think the UK is doing a good job."

 

[peterward]

"Overall, I think the UK is doing a good job."

That was almost 1 week ago, but thats not the point. Its about the disease and its potential global impact, not what Boris Johnson is doing. If youve not the time, try his words from exactly 18:00

 

[Wozza]

From Beeb:

The number of UK coronavirus cases has risen to 373, the government has announced.

The Department of Health and Social Care said: "As of 9am on 10 March 2020, 26,261 people have been tested in the UK, of which 25,888 were confirmed negative and 373 were confirmed as positive.

"Six patients who tested positive for Covid-19 have died."

The latest figures mark a rise of 54 cases since the same time on Monday.


(1.6% mortality rate)

 

[Lyndhurst 14]

NY Post

Nations are closing borders, stocks are plummeting and a New York Times headline reads: “The Coronavirus Has Put the World’s Economy in Survival Mode.” Both political parties have realized the crisis could severely impact the November elections — House, Senate, presidency. And sacré bleu, they’ve even shuttered the Louvre!

Some of these reactions are understandable, much of it pure hysteria. Meanwhile, the spread of the virus continues to slow.

More than 18,000 Americans have died from this season’s generic flu so far, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In 2018, the CDC estimated, there were 80,000 flu deaths. That’s against 19 coronavirus deaths so far, from about 470 cases.

Worldwide, there have been about 3,400 coronavirus deaths, out of about 100,000 identified cases. Flu, by comparison, grimly reaps about 291,000 to 646,000 annually.

China is the origin of the virus and still accounts for over 80 percent of cases and deaths. But its cases peaked and began *declining more than a month ago, according to data presented by the Canadian epidemiologist who spearheaded the World Health Organization’s coronavirus mission to China. Fewer than 200 new cases are reported daily, down from a peak of 4,000.

Subsequent countries will follow this same pattern, in what’s called Farr’s Law. First formulated in 1840 and ignored in *every epidemic hysteria since, the law states that epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern or bell-shaped curve. AIDS, SARS, Ebola — they all followed that pattern. So does seasonal flu each year.

Clearly, flu is vastly more contagious than the new coronavirus, as the WHO has noted. Consider that the first known coronavirus cases date back to early December, and since then, the virus has *afflicted fewer people in total than flu does in a few days. Oh, and why are there no flu quarantines? Because it’s so contagious, it would be impossible.

As for death rates, as I first noted in these pages on Jan. 24, you can’t employ simple math — as everyone is doing — and look at deaths versus cases because those are *reported cases. With both flu and assuredly with coronavirus, the great majority of those infected have symptoms so mild — if any — that they don’t seek medical attention and don’t get counted in the caseload.

Furthermore, those calculating rates *ignore the importance of good health care. Given that the vast majority of cases have occurred in a country with poor health care, that’s going to dramatically exaggerate the death rate.

The rate also varies tremendously according to age, with a Chinese government analysis showing 0.2 percent deaths below age 40 but 14.8 percent above 80. A study published last month in the Journal of the American Medical Association found zero deaths worldwide among children 9 and under. Zero.


State Department tells Americans to stay off cruises during coronavirus crisis
Like the flu, the coronavirus is afflicting high-risk groups: the elderly, those with *underlying health conditions like diabetes or heart disease and those with compromised immune systems. Are there exceptions? Sure. But that’s the case with almost every complex biological phenomenon of the kind.

More good news. This month, the Northern Hemisphere, which includes the countries with the most cases, starts heating up. Almost all respiratory viruses hate warm and moist weather. That’s why flu dies out in America every year by May at the latest and probably why Latin America has reported only 25 coronavirus cases. The Philippines, where I live, has about a third of the US population, but it’s so damned hot and humid here, so far we have had no confirmed cases of internal transmission.

The only thing the NY Post is good for is putting a hole in the top left corner and hanging up in the bog when you run out of toilet paper

 

[vegster]

soap

I think we now know to assess your contributions on this thread from now on, thanks.

 

[Titanic]

[tweet]1237385695259312128[/tweet]

Mayor of London @MayorofLondon

To reduce the risk of coronavirus spreading @TfL is stepping up its enhanced cleaning regime across its network.

I want to reassure Londoners that these are voluntary measures taken by TfL & @PHE_uk has stated there are no specific concerns about using public transport. #COVID19

 

[rogersix]

I think we now know to assess your contributions on this thread from now on, thanks.

sauce: the tree of evolution

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Not another...."well look at flu" and let's compare.

There is no comparison.

Flu has been circulating for centuries.
Covid 19 started in December from zero.

Flu has zero transmission control.
Covid-19 has the biggest global attempt to stop any disease in our lifetimes.

You get flu you probably give it those around you and stay in bed a week.
You get covid19 you're locked up and everyone you've contacted is checked, places been disinfected.

Flu kills 100,000's per year and yet it still has many with immunity and working vaccinations.
Covid-19 has under 100,000 with immunity and no vaccine.

Flu unrestrained kills 0.1% of people even with immunity and vaccinations.
Covid19 is currently 3.4% almost certainly lower in reality but most probably 1% (10x higher)

In Wuhan area unrestrained seasonal flu kills under 2000 people per annum.
Covid19 even with biblical restraint efforts killed more in 4 weeks.

If the dam breaks and you get like for like transmission with flu in an unvaccinated population. These types of "let's compare to flu" will look ridiculous (accepting you just shared an article in good faith).

It's not even close to like for like in disease controls.

The problem with this, is that influenza, flu, isn't one virus or disease. It is the generic name for a group of viruses, that are very similar.
Flu mutates and can be mild ie a low death rate, an epidemic with thousands of deaths, or pandemic with hundreds of thousands of deaths.
There have been famous pandemics like Spanish flu, Asian flu, Hong Kong flu, A flu, SARS, Swine flu etc. It is a mistake to call flu, just flu.

The vaccine I receive every year is made up by scientists every Spring, where they include the latest known strains of flu, or the the strongest strains to try to prevent a winter outbreak. It is hit and miss sometimes as to whether they get all the latest varities.

 

[Mellotron]

NY Post

Nations are closing borders, stocks are plummeting and a New York Times headline reads: “The Coronavirus Has Put the World’s Economy in Survival Mode.” Both political parties have realized the crisis could severely impact the November elections — House, Senate, presidency. And sacré bleu, they’ve even shuttered the Louvre!

Some of these reactions are understandable, much of it pure hysteria. Meanwhile, the spread of the virus continues to slow.

More than 18,000 Americans have died from this season’s generic flu so far, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In 2018, the CDC estimated, there were 80,000 flu deaths. That’s against 19 coronavirus deaths so far, from about 470 cases.

Worldwide, there have been about 3,400 coronavirus deaths, out of about 100,000 identified cases. Flu, by comparison, grimly reaps about 291,000 to 646,000 annually.

China is the origin of the virus and still accounts for over 80 percent of cases and deaths. But its cases peaked and began *declining more than a month ago, according to data presented by the Canadian epidemiologist who spearheaded the World Health Organization’s coronavirus mission to China. Fewer than 200 new cases are reported daily, down from a peak of 4,000.

Subsequent countries will follow this same pattern, in what’s called Farr’s Law. First formulated in 1840 and ignored in *every epidemic hysteria since, the law states that epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern or bell-shaped curve. AIDS, SARS, Ebola — they all followed that pattern. So does seasonal flu each year.

Clearly, flu is vastly more contagious than the new coronavirus, as the WHO has noted. Consider that the first known coronavirus cases date back to early December, and since then, the virus has *afflicted fewer people in total than flu does in a few days. Oh, and why are there no flu quarantines? Because it’s so contagious, it would be impossible.

As for death rates, as I first noted in these pages on Jan. 24, you can’t employ simple math — as everyone is doing — and look at deaths versus cases because those are *reported cases. With both flu and assuredly with coronavirus, the great majority of those infected have symptoms so mild — if any — that they don’t seek medical attention and don’t get counted in the caseload.

Furthermore, those calculating rates *ignore the importance of good health care. Given that the vast majority of cases have occurred in a country with poor health care, that’s going to dramatically exaggerate the death rate.

The rate also varies tremendously according to age, with a Chinese government analysis showing 0.2 percent deaths below age 40 but 14.8 percent above 80. A study published last month in the Journal of the American Medical Association found zero deaths worldwide among children 9 and under. Zero.


State Department tells Americans to stay off cruises during coronavirus crisis
Like the flu, the coronavirus is afflicting high-risk groups: the elderly, those with *underlying health conditions like diabetes or heart disease and those with compromised immune systems. Are there exceptions? Sure. But that’s the case with almost every complex biological phenomenon of the kind.

More good news. This month, the Northern Hemisphere, which includes the countries with the most cases, starts heating up. Almost all respiratory viruses hate warm and moist weather. That’s why flu dies out in America every year by May at the latest and probably why Latin America has reported only 25 coronavirus cases. The Philippines, where I live, has about a third of the US population, but it’s so damned hot and humid here, so far we have had no confirmed cases of internal transmission.

Much needed. Facts and figures. Thank you.

 

[The Clamp]

Chief scientists

I wouldn’t rule it out. I wouldn’t t rule anything out but I seriously doubt “chief scientists” know what we should be doing and are not saying, to show solidarity. Sounds like rumours and scaremongering to me.

Anyway, if people are that worried; self isolate. Nothing stopping you.

 

[Mellotron]

From Beeb:

The number of UK coronavirus cases has risen to 373, the government has announced.

The Department of Health and Social Care said: "As of 9am on 10 March 2020, 26,261 people have been tested in the UK, of which 25,888 were confirmed negative and 373 were confirmed as positive.

"Six patients who tested positive for Covid-19 have died."

The latest figures mark a rise of 54 cases since the same time on Monday.


(1.6% mortality rate)

*Disclaimer - actual mortality rate is of course much, much lower, as it has been confirmed (numerous times now) the majority of people who contract Coronavirus show no to mild symptoms, and therefore the majority do not present for testing.

 

[vegster]

sauce: the tree of evolution

I refer you to my previous statement.

 

[Rodney Thomas]

I wouldn’t rule it out. I wouldn’t t rule anything out but I seriously doubt “chief scientists” know what we should be doing and are not saying, to show solidarity. Sounds like rumours and scaremongering to me.

Anyway, if people are that worried; self isolate. Nothing stopping you.

I think you know, most people live more complicated lives than that.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Just read Austria with less than half our cases is blocking all roads for anyone entering from Italy. Anyone entering from Italy must have a negative medical cert or go into 14 days quarantine.

How easy is it though to circumvent their tough and sensible border policy?

Take the easyJet from Milan to Stansted that's wide open and requires no certs or medical checks, do the vienesse waltz into the UK, then take the Lauda flight to Vienna from Stansted. Simples

I did a lads trip to Slovenia in September. We flew to Venice and then drove through northern Italy to get there. The road Slovenian border is unmanned, or was then. But you can cross the border numerous times if you do a hill walk (at that time) or ski in the Julian Alps. The Italian ski resorts may be shut but the Slovenian ones will not be. You cannot lock down borders within the EU - it was one of the leaver's arguments.

That argument, will unfortunately soon be put to bed.

I posted this once already but if youve 20 mins time and missed it, Richard Hatchet is a leading US virologist and previous advisor to both George W and Clinton. Listen to what this real expert says.

I saw that and it was in a reply to me. I've watched it and a few thoughts occurred.

Firstly, this is obviously more serious than I first thought. I acknowledge and admit that. Not the first time I've been wrong but hopefully not in the BG league (RIP).

BUT

I find the comparison to the Second World War utterly insulting. WWII took young men in their prime and decimated them. It rained bombs on people in a totally indiscriminate manner. An entire race were attempted to be wiped out by gas chamber. None of that is what Coronavirus will do. Indeed, with sensible restrictions and some decent hygine I still feel quite bullish come what will be will be. I wouldn't feel like that if I was in a trench on the front line or imprisoned in a Japanese POW camp or whatever.

Why use such alarmist language? Because, of course, he has an agenda. They deal with it towards the end of the interview, to be fair, but with the wrong question. The question is not how much money he has available to make the vaccine now but what he stands to gain in the future. If he saves us from World War II that means a future of Nobel prizes and unlimited funding for his organisation. If he saves a few hundred octogenarians? Not so much. Sorry to be cynical but everything he says is in his interest to say.

 

[The Clamp]

I think you know, most people live more complicated lives than that.

Well, they’re either worried enough to self isolate or they’re not. No good whingeing about nobody doing anything and then..... not doing anything.

If they think Johnson and the CMO are telling lies, go against their advice and lock yourself down.

Absolutely nothing stopping anyone getting the family in one house, taking the kids out of school, stocking up, calling in sick and going to ground.

Is there?

 

[peterward]

The problem with this, is that influenza, flu, isn't one virus or disease. It is the generic name for a group of viruses, that are very similar.
Flu mutates and can be mild ie a low death rate, an epidemic with thousands of deaths, or pandemic with hundreds of thousands of deaths.
There have been famous pandemics like Spanish flu, Asian flu, Hong Kong flu, A flu, SARS, Swine flu etc. It is a mistake to call flu, just flu.

The vaccine I receive every year is made up by scientists every Spring, where they include the latest known strains of flu, or the the strongest strains to try to prevent a winter outbreak. It is hit and miss sometimes as to whether they get all the latest varities.

SARS is a coronavirus not a flu and I agree with you (and also get vaccinated), that flu severity alters depending on strain/year.

But we get some form of vaccination and we have some form of immunity. Big difference when compared to Covid19