Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Deportivo Seagull]

[Tweet]1237345461616418816[/Tweet]

No one is immune ( actually that’s not strictly true as a very small minority will be), but if you are in the at risk group then age doesn’t really come into it. Nearly all that are at risk are old as they tend to have the conditions to which are susceptible.


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[dingodan]

I mean. I know it’s coming

But very many more people will die - other countries seem to give more of a sh*t than our lot.
I’m trying not to get political but maybe this will be a wake up call for a lot of voters?

It's not about giving a sh*t or not. It's about what will work.

Tell people to stop going out today and in a couple of weeks, with things not hitting a peak/very high level of infections, people will get bored/complacent and start ignoring the instructions, at what would be the worst possible time.

If you wait until the right moment, then the moment of bordem and complacency will be more aligned with a moment of more obvious severity, people will still be frustrated and fed up, but also sufficiently concerned that they keep up with following the instructions.

It's crazy to think that anyone doesn't give a sh*t, this isn't a political issue. It's about doing the right thing. If this was political then politicians would simply cave to public demands in order to score points and keep up political appearances, and in doing so could make a deadly mistake, all for the sake of public opinion and politics.

 

[A1X]

View attachment 120859

Britain’s Moron Threat Level raised from ‘Moderate’ to ‘Severe’


https://newsthump.com/2020/03/10/britains-moron-threat-level-raised-from-moderate-to-severe/

What idiot downgraded it in the first place

 

[A1X]

I just hope if and when it is suspended we are not in the bottom three....

I would imagine in that scenario the legal challenges would be going straight in from every club which could still mathematically stay up / qualify for Europe / go up?

 

[peterward]

Would be interesting to have a list what measures other countries governments have put in place and then compare it to ours.

Just read Austria with less than half our cases is blocking all roads for anyone entering from Italy. Anyone entering from Italy must have a negative medical cert or go into 14 days quarantine.

How easy is it though to circumvent their tough and sensible border policy?

Take the easyJet from Milan to Stansted that's wide open and requires no certs or medical checks, do the vienesse waltz into the UK, then take the Lauda flight to Vienna from Stansted. Simples

 

[LamieRobertson]

I have a regular cold and have been at work. Just had a colleague say to me I should think about working from home. More than happy to do this, especially as I can't do most of my job from home (specialist software on machines without internet access for security etc). I'll tell them I called 111 and was advised to stay home for a bit. Homes Under The Hammer for me!

I bet in the past they would have called you a wimp for not houngan one to work.

Don’t work don’t get paid for me ..having said that if I was working with others in a confined space I’d do the right thing regardless

 

[Insel affe]

NY Post

Nations are closing borders, stocks are plummeting and a New York Times headline reads: “The Coronavirus Has Put the World’s Economy in Survival Mode.” Both political parties have realized the crisis could severely impact the November elections — House, Senate, presidency. And sacré bleu, they’ve even shuttered the Louvre!

Some of these reactions are understandable, much of it pure hysteria. Meanwhile, the spread of the virus continues to slow.

More than 18,000 Americans have died from this season’s generic flu so far, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In 2018, the CDC estimated, there were 80,000 flu deaths. That’s against 19 coronavirus deaths so far, from about 470 cases.

Worldwide, there have been about 3,400 coronavirus deaths, out of about 100,000 identified cases. Flu, by comparison, grimly reaps about 291,000 to 646,000 annually.

China is the origin of the virus and still accounts for over 80 percent of cases and deaths. But its cases peaked and began *declining more than a month ago, according to data presented by the Canadian epidemiologist who spearheaded the World Health Organization’s coronavirus mission to China. Fewer than 200 new cases are reported daily, down from a peak of 4,000.

Subsequent countries will follow this same pattern, in what’s called Farr’s Law. First formulated in 1840 and ignored in *every epidemic hysteria since, the law states that epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern or bell-shaped curve. AIDS, SARS, Ebola — they all followed that pattern. So does seasonal flu each year.

Clearly, flu is vastly more contagious than the new coronavirus, as the WHO has noted. Consider that the first known coronavirus cases date back to early December, and since then, the virus has *afflicted fewer people in total than flu does in a few days. Oh, and why are there no flu quarantines? Because it’s so contagious, it would be impossible.

As for death rates, as I first noted in these pages on Jan. 24, you can’t employ simple math — as everyone is doing — and look at deaths versus cases because those are *reported cases. With both flu and assuredly with coronavirus, the great majority of those infected have symptoms so mild — if any — that they don’t seek medical attention and don’t get counted in the caseload.

Furthermore, those calculating rates *ignore the importance of good health care. Given that the vast majority of cases have occurred in a country with poor health care, that’s going to dramatically exaggerate the death rate.

The rate also varies tremendously according to age, with a Chinese government analysis showing 0.2 percent deaths below age 40 but 14.8 percent above 80. A study published last month in the Journal of the American Medical Association found zero deaths worldwide among children 9 and under. Zero.


State Department tells Americans to stay off cruises during coronavirus crisis
Like the flu, the coronavirus is afflicting high-risk groups: the elderly, those with *underlying health conditions like diabetes or heart disease and those with compromised immune systems. Are there exceptions? Sure. But that’s the case with almost every complex biological phenomenon of the kind.

More good news. This month, the Northern Hemisphere, which includes the countries with the most cases, starts heating up. Almost all respiratory viruses hate warm and moist weather. That’s why flu dies out in America every year by May at the latest and probably why Latin America has reported only 25 coronavirus cases. The Philippines, where I live, has about a third of the US population, but it’s so damned hot and humid here, so far we have had no confirmed cases of internal transmission.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

So have the "It's just flu/lot of fuss about nothing" mob.

I'm 100% with Bozza on this.

But, hey ho, we'll see in a week or two, I guess!

It’s certainly not a fuss about nothing but for 80-85% of the population it will be like seasonal flu in terms of symptoms. TBH, I had seasonal flu four years ago and it was t pleasant! It’s the remaining percentage that are very much in danger and hence should be protected.

The Italian’s falling was they did the square root and not a lot when this first started. They didn’t report any infections until 31st jan. France and Germany had outbreaks a week previously but put in mitigation in the same way the uk has. The general consensus is that Italy most likely had infections before France and if they had acted maybe (very much conjecture) the situation wouldnt be as bad as it is.
The questions people should be asking are “ why is Italy worse than the rest of Europe?” “Is it down to timing?” “is it cultural ( holy communion social interaction?”, “ age demographics?“, “hygiene factors”. “Type of preventive measures” etc

Why does the rest of Europe appear to be doing ok? what are we doing differently? can we learn any lessons? Does Italy have the aggressive strain and we predominately have the much milder one?

If you take data without context then at worse it meaningless and at best misleading.


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[Wozza]

Wow, this travel business could go either way....

https://coronaholidays.co.uk

 

[highflyer]

Haven't read the whole thread, but even if this has been posted before, probably worth doing it again.
This really sums it up - the aim is not to 'stop' the spread, although of course if you can reduce the overall numbers that get it in total, that is better

But the real battle is to slow it down enough that it does not overwhelm the ability of our health system to cope.

Slowing things down enough seems to be two reliant on factors 1. reducing how many people come into contact with each other and how often and 2. how they behave when they do meet.

This is a situation where we need people to take on some (relatively minor in the big scheme of things) inconvenience, in terms of working from home whenever you can, less socilaising, less travel, self isolating as a precaution etc. Not (mostly) because of the threat to us individually, but for the greater good.

Going to be a test of the kind of society we have become I guess...

 

[peterward]

NY Post

Nations are closing borders, stocks are plummeting and a New York Times headline reads: “The Coronavirus Has Put the World’s Economy in Survival Mode.” Both political parties have realized the crisis could severely impact the November elections — House, Senate, presidency. And sacré bleu, they’ve even shuttered the Louvre!

Some of these reactions are understandable, much of it pure hysteria. Meanwhile, the spread of the virus continues to slow.

More than 18,000 Americans have died from this season’s generic flu so far, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In 2018, the CDC estimated, there were 80,000 flu deaths. That’s against 19 coronavirus deaths so far, from about 470 cases.

Worldwide, there have been about 3,400 coronavirus deaths, out of about 100,000 identified cases. Flu, by comparison, grimly reaps about 291,000 to 646,000 annually.

China is the origin of the virus and still accounts for over 80 percent of cases and deaths. But its cases peaked and began *declining more than a month ago, according to data presented by the Canadian epidemiologist who spearheaded the World Health Organization’s coronavirus mission to China. Fewer than 200 new cases are reported daily, down from a peak of 4,000.

Subsequent countries will follow this same pattern, in what’s called Farr’s Law. First formulated in 1840 and ignored in *every epidemic hysteria since, the law states that epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern or bell-shaped curve. AIDS, SARS, Ebola — they all followed that pattern. So does seasonal flu each year.

Clearly, flu is vastly more contagious than the new coronavirus, as the WHO has noted. Consider that the first known coronavirus cases date back to early December, and since then, the virus has *afflicted fewer people in total than flu does in a few days. Oh, and why are there no flu quarantines? Because it’s so contagious, it would be impossible.

As for death rates, as I first noted in these pages on Jan. 24, you can’t employ simple math — as everyone is doing — and look at deaths versus cases because those are *reported cases. With both flu and assuredly with coronavirus, the great majority of those infected have symptoms so mild — if any — that they don’t seek medical attention and don’t get counted in the caseload.

Furthermore, those calculating rates *ignore the importance of good health care. Given that the vast majority of cases have occurred in a country with poor health care, that’s going to dramatically exaggerate the death rate.

The rate also varies tremendously according to age, with a Chinese government analysis showing 0.2 percent deaths below age 40 but 14.8 percent above 80. A study published last month in the Journal of the American Medical Association found zero deaths worldwide among children 9 and under. Zero.


State Department tells Americans to stay off cruises during coronavirus crisis
Like the flu, the coronavirus is afflicting high-risk groups: the elderly, those with *underlying health conditions like diabetes or heart disease and those with compromised immune systems. Are there exceptions? Sure. But that’s the case with almost every complex biological phenomenon of the kind.

More good news. This month, the Northern Hemisphere, which includes the countries with the most cases, starts heating up. Almost all respiratory viruses hate warm and moist weather. That’s why flu dies out in America every year by May at the latest and probably why Latin America has reported only 25 coronavirus cases. The Philippines, where I live, has about a third of the US population, but it’s so damned hot and humid here, so far we have had no confirmed cases of internal transmission.

Not another...."well look at flu" and let's compare.

There is no comparison.

Flu has been circulating for centuries.
Covid 19 started in December from zero.

Flu has zero transmission control.
Covid-19 has the biggest global attempt to stop any disease in our lifetimes.

You get flu you probably give it those around you and stay in bed a week.
You get covid19 you're locked up and everyone you've contacted is checked, places been disinfected.

Flu kills 100,000's per year and yet it still has many with immunity and working vaccinations.
Covid-19 has under 100,000 with immunity and no vaccine.

Flu unrestrained kills 0.1% of people even with immunity and vaccinations.
Covid19 is currently 3.4% almost certainly lower in reality but most probably 1% (10x higher)

In Wuhan area unrestrained seasonal flu kills under 2000 people per annum.
Covid19 even with biblical restraint efforts killed more in 4 weeks.

If the dam breaks and you get like for like transmission with flu in an unvaccinated population. These types of "let's compare to flu" will look ridiculous (accepting you just shared an article in good faith).

It's not even close to like for like in disease controls.

 

[Titanic]

NHS England has confirmed the sixth death in the UK relating to COVID-19 coronavirus

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51812326

The decision to delay closing schools and introduce other strict measures to combat coronavirus has been defended by England's deputy chief medical officer.

Dr Jenny Harries said experts are assessing new cases on an hourly basis to achieve a "balanced response".

It comes as a man in his early 80s became the sixth person with the virus to die in the UK.

Meanwhile, many airlines cut thousands of flights, including to and from Italy, in the wake of the outbreak.

According to the latest figures, there were 319 confirmed cases as of 09:00 GMT on Monday.

The latest death happened on Monday evening and was a man with underlying health conditions who was being looked after at Watford General Hospital, the NHS said.

Dr Harries said the vast majority of those diagnosed with coronavirus in Britain are "pretty well" but that they may "feel a bit rough for a few days".

She told BBC Breakfast new government measures could follow as UK cases begin to rise rapidly over the next two weeks.

She added that people with flu-like symptoms will be advised to self-isolate within 10 to 14 days and, at the same time, significant increases in the number of cases are likely to begin.

Dr Harries said cancelling big outdoor events like football matches would not necessarily be a decision supported by science.

"The virus will not survive very long outside," she said. "Many outdoor events, particularly, are relatively safe."

 

[rogersix]

If viruses were here before we were, what did they use to replicate ? Only asking like ...

soap

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

7I mean. I know it’s coming

But very many more people will die - other countries seem to give more of a sh*t than our lot.
I’m trying not to get political but maybe this will be a wake up call for a lot of voters?

Would be interesting to have a list what measures other countries governments have put in place and then compare it to ours.

I am generally in the [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] school of 'be very worried about what could potentially happen'..

.. But I also think that we are getting it right in a way that Italy or Spain haven't, for whatever reason, maybe just the way they live in narrow terraces and apartment blocks, go to communion and kiss each other all the time; in the way that Iran didn't, that South Korea couldn't because of the crazy cult and China couldn't because they didn't know what they were dealing with until it was too late.

Namely that every potential case has been got to immediately and tested quickly and isolated until results known - over 20000 negative tests attest to that - and those who are positive are isolated straight away and their contacts tracked down and isolated and their schools or offices closed and cleaned immediately. By doing this the chance of a rapid spread is severely limited.

The advice for anyone with even a simple cough or cold to isolate is extremely good, coupled with the confirmation that everyone doing this gets immediate sick pay. Many people will follow this advice. The continuous information to everyone to wash hands, to text everyone to not attend the surgery if feeling sick but call 111, its all helping - I can't remember another instance of a news story where everyone I speak to is so well informed and attuned to what to do. People don't want to be told they can't do things, but because we're not being told that yet, the story is focused on the right things, ie the severity if you do get it, simple ways to avoid it. You don't get many 70+ people saying 'it's just flu' - the ones I know are limiting movements because it is demonstrably an immediate risk to them.

The forecast is always 'We might cancel sports events. We might tell people with colds to self isolate. We might call volunteer nurses up.' But all just left hanging on the air. It gives time to people to absorb it, if we did that immediately the airwaves would be dominated with irate people - look at the prison riots in Italy when told visiting hours would be temporarily cut. But by merely alluding to it we get people to think about it, and many to do just what it's being suggested even if not mandated.

Forget Number 10, politicians or voters. This scenario has been war-gamed over and over for decades. This is a finely-tuned plan that has been in place for many years, and constantly refined and practised. They expected this and they aren't working on the hoof.

I am hopeful that we will be one of the least affected countries. Being an island helps too. But no place for complacency.

 

[melias shoes]

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ghting-covid-19-outbreak-is-like-war-11954229
For those that think it's just a bad cold/flu. This man thinks different and he should know.

 

[Titanic]

Changing ingrained patterns of behaviour is not a simple thing...

 

[Nobby]

But on the BBC link [MENTION=33848]The Clamp[/MENTION] shared we have the Deputy Chief Medical Officer (no less) who, I would surmise, knows more than me and you put together, saying exactly what the government are saying.

It's rare I stick up for Boris but I'm actually glad it's him. He won't have bargained for any of this. Cummings will have promised him a year of Shouting At Belgians followed by a period of playing the man of the people, whatever the outcome. Now he's so far out of his depth his only choice will be to listen to the scientists around him including, one assumes, the Deputy Chief Medical Officer (and probably the actual CMO as well).

We'll never know, and I don't particularly want to politicise this either, but would Corbyn have been just stubborn and intellectually superior enough to think he could handle it all?

If Boris and the scientists start getting at each other's throats I will be genuinely scared. That's not happening at the moment.

Rumours elsewhere that it may be happening already

 

[peterward]

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ghting-covid-19-outbreak-is-like-war-11954229
For those that think it's just a bad cold/flu. This man thinks different and he should know.

That argument, will unfortunately soon be put to bed.

I posted this once already but if youve 20 mins time and missed it, Richard Hatchet is a leading US virologist and previous advisor to both George W and Clinton. Listen to what this real expert says.

 

[Wozza]

https://inews.co.uk/sport/football/...s-marinakis-coronavirus-players-squad-2445405

The i is claiming that Nottingham Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis shook hands with players - and that they should go into self-isolation.

"...a source has confirmed to i that Marinakis also met members of the Nottingham Forest squad, who are therefore at risk of infection. Symptoms usually take five days to appear.

"The Government’s current advice is for all people who have come into contact with a sufferer to place themselves into self-isolation, and that might well include all players and coaching staff at the club, plus those who came into direct contact with Marinakis.

"The 52-year-old’s diagnosis could have wide-ranging ramifications for English football. Nottingham Forest are due to play Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday, but any period of self-isolation would put that fixture at risk. So too Millwall, who are due to face Derby County on the same day.

"There is also a schedule of Championship matches the following midweek, to be played on 17 and 18 March . The EFL has been approached for comment."

 

[Titanic]

Rumours elsewhere that it may be happening already

Since yesterday?