If/when spread is truly rampant, then my guess is they'll want to choke off the spread as much as they can.
We may watch football outside, but we travel on heaving trains and buses. We congregate in packed concourses. We take a piss with five blokes breathing down the back of our necks waiting their turn. It is these environments, with poor air circulation, that spreading is far more likely to occur.
Look, this is just my guess, but I'm not picking up any mixed messaging at all - it's just a matter of timing.
Like everyone else, I'll just follow expert advice as and when we receive it.
All extremely good points to be fair. You'd think the Deputy Chief Medical Officer for the whole country would have considered them. I don't disagree with what you've posted but people will read that BBC link and think any event cancellation is OTT. No wonder people are worried and confused.