Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Bodian]

Probably paywalled, but interesting take on where we might be going…….refers to ‘alternative modelling’ ie not simply trying to find the worst case, but looking to understand other impCTS

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...ection-lockdown-could-pay-big-dividends-2022/

JP Morgan’s case is fairly simple. The omicron surge has been concentrated amongst the young: and, as we know, risk lies with the over-60s. But an extraordinary 93 per cent of them have already been boosted, giving high protection from either catching omicron or getting seriously sick from it – the highest figure of any major country. This time last year, lockdown was used as a tool to buy time to vaccinate the at-risk age groups. Now, we enter the omicron wave with that work largely done.

This bit interests me - as what seems to be the narrative on the news at the moment is the concerns about what happens when omicron starts 'moving' into the older generation. I don't quite understand this - because it's almost as though there is a belief that it's only been circulating where the younger generations mix, and hasn't yet reached the older populations. I suppose this is based on London being the epicentre. Hospitalisations and infections do seem to be predominantly the younger generations.

But what if it's just the case that Omicron is circulating everywhere, and it's just that the older generations are not catching it, or showing no symptoms? If that happens, then it's good news.

 

[vegster]

My job is teaching and research so the evolution of a view about something is critical to half of what I do. I don't have any problem with people who have access to data describing that data and, in a 'free society' one expects journalists to ask questions, some good, some provocative and some ill-informed.

Because we don't yet know how omicrom may affect hospital beds, it is understandable that people will speculate, with more or less caution according to judgement, and presented in soft or hard light depending on the context (questioner and question).

My view is that it is possible that there will be problems in hospitals (based on the data on hospitalization in London) and that the next set of figures will be very telling.

Meanwhile....the nipper tested positive on the 24th, and Mrs T tested positive on Boxing day. She has no temperature, and no loss of taste, but has felt very achy and weak, with the back of the throat working as a snot machine. I suspect I will find that I'm positive shortly. I could barely taste my tea this morning (albeit had no issues with a banana). Unlike the last 2 waves, this time I'm much less concerned if I'm infected. That's because in my judgement the data seem to suggest omicron is not anything like as dangerous, especially to someone triple jabbed (like me).

It is fine for people to do modeling and fine for this to be discussed. But I still think it's too early to say where this will go over the next few weeks. So it would be foolish to abandon caution.

Hope all goes well for you and the family with the bug Harry. Although things seem better this wave it is still going to cost some people their lives and some their health for months if not years. Johnson is hogtied due to the group within his party and cabinet that put the needs of business ( disguised as a sudden new interest in individual freedom ) first but offering only minimal financial support.

We now find ourselves being told by our Prime Minister to exercise caution and common-sense in our attitude to avoiding the virus, despite our Prime Minister himself rarely showing such caution and common-sense for most of his adult life.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

My job is teaching and research so the evolution of a view about something is critical to half of what I do. I don't have any problem with people who have access to data describing that data and, in a 'free society' one expects journalists to ask questions, some good, some provocative and some ill-informed.

Because we don't yet know how omicrom may affect hospital beds, it is understandable that people will speculate, with more or less caution according to judgement, and presented in soft or hard light depending on the context (questioner and question).

My view is that it is possible that there will be problems in hospitals (based on the data on hospitalization in London) and that the next set of figures will be very telling.

Meanwhile....the nipper tested positive on the 24th, and Mrs T tested positive on Boxing day. She has no temperature, and no loss of taste, but has felt very achy and weak, with the back of the throat working as a snot machine. I suspect I will find that I'm positive shortly. I could barely taste my tea this morning (albeit had no issues with a banana). Unlike the last 2 waves, this time I'm much less concerned if I'm infected. That's because in my judgement the data seem to suggest omicron is not anything like as dangerous, especially to someone triple jabbed (like me).

It is fine for people to do modeling and fine for this to be discussed. But I still think it's too early to say where this will go over the next few weeks. So it would be foolish to abandon caution.

I hope you and yours keep well and safe Harry.

 

[dsr-burnley]

My job is teaching and research so the evolution of a view about something is critical to half of what I do. I don't have any problem with people who have access to data describing that data and, in a 'free society' one expects journalists to ask questions, some good, some provocative and some ill-informed.

Because we don't yet know how omicrom may affect hospital beds, it is understandable that people will speculate, with more or less caution according to judgement, and presented in soft or hard light depending on the context (questioner and question).

My view is that it is possible that there will be problems in hospitals (based on the data on hospitalization in London) and that the next set of figures will be very telling.

Meanwhile....the nipper tested positive on the 24th, and Mrs T tested positive on Boxing day. She has no temperature, and no loss of taste, but has felt very achy and weak, with the back of the throat working as a snot machine. I suspect I will find that I'm positive shortly. I could barely taste my tea this morning (albeit had no issues with a banana). Unlike the last 2 waves, this time I'm much less concerned if I'm infected. That's because in my judgement the data seem to suggest omicron is not anything like as dangerous, especially to someone triple jabbed (like me).

It is fine for people to do modeling and fine for this to be discussed. But I still think it's too early to say where this will go over the next few weeks. So it would be foolish to abandon caution.

Even if there are problems in hospitals, it may well be better to face the problems, solve them as best we can, and move on. The first lockdown was born out of justifiable panic because we didn't know what was going on or how it would pan out. the second lockdown was born principally out of desire to save lives by delaying any surge in the virus until after everyone was vaccinated. In both cases there was also a desire to "protect the NHS".

Now we know what is happening, we have treatments, we have vaccines, we are substantially all vaccinated (and the ones that aren't have made their own decision and must be deemed prepared to meet the consequences)..The only remaining reason for lockdown would be to "protect the NHS". The idea would be to delay the virus spread - not to stop people getting it, but to ensure they get it over the next year or two rather than the next month. So they obviously have to ask, is it better to carry on like we did in the first half of last year so the NHS can work under the same conditions as it did last year? Or do we bite the bullet, let this milder variant infect and immunise people, and take the hit now to get back to normal sooner?

 

[Weststander]

Wes Streeting MP [MENTION=3791]Wes[/MENTION]streeting
After a difficult 2021, people will be relieved to see no new restrictions ahead of the new year, but we need reassurance that this is the right decision being taken for the right reasons and that schools and the NHS will be able to cope.

Labour are starting to move away from calls for restrictions it seems.

As did Labour MP Siobhain McDonagh in a long TV interview in the last hour.

No criticism of the government, other than Labour want to see the latest science. She even said London hospitals were in overall numbers coping at the moment.

No calls for copying Drakeford or Sturgeon.

I love it when politicians speak without entrenched hyperbole.

 

[Weststander]

My job is teaching and research so the evolution of a view about something is critical to half of what I do. I don't have any problem with people who have access to data describing that data and, in a 'free society' one expects journalists to ask questions, some good, some provocative and some ill-informed.

Because we don't yet know how omicrom may affect hospital beds, it is understandable that people will speculate, with more or less caution according to judgement, and presented in soft or hard light depending on the context (questioner and question).

My view is that it is possible that there will be problems in hospitals (based on the data on hospitalization in London) and that the next set of figures will be very telling.

Meanwhile....the nipper tested positive on the 24th, and Mrs T tested positive on Boxing day. She has no temperature, and no loss of taste, but has felt very achy and weak, with the back of the throat working as a snot machine. I suspect I will find that I'm positive shortly. I could barely taste my tea this morning (albeit had no issues with a banana). Unlike the last 2 waves, this time I'm much less concerned if I'm infected. That's because in my judgement the data seem to suggest omicron is not anything like as dangerous, especially to someone triple jabbed (like me).

It is fine for people to do modeling and fine for this to be discussed. But I still think it's too early to say where this will go over the next few weeks. So it would be foolish to abandon caution.

It took me 10 days to full recover from (likely imho) Omicron.

I only passed it onto the missus, our 16 and 19 year old's definitely never caught it from us (daily LFT's and each had PCR's for other reasons).

I was only double jabbed at that stage, you'll have the great advantage of being tripled jabbed.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

This bit interests me - as what seems to be the narrative on the news at the moment is the concerns about what happens when omicron starts 'moving' into the older generation. I don't quite understand this - because it's almost as though there is a belief that it's only been circulating where the younger generations mix, and hasn't yet reached the older populations. I suppose this is based on London being the epicentre. Hospitalisations and infections do seem to be predominantly the younger generations.

But what if it's just the case that Omicron is circulating everywhere, and it's just that the older generations are not catching it, or showing no symptoms? If that happens, then it's good news.

The monkey in the wrench is the uncertainty about what happens if boosters start to wane. The oldest were boosted first so any waning will happen first in the most vulnerable.

Prepare for shot 4 from February onwards, I suppose, and for it to be a twice yearly booster from here on in until the vaccines get better and can do the job with an annual booster like the flu.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Even if there are problems in hospitals, it may well be better to face the problems, solve them as best we can, and move on. The first lockdown was born out of justifiable panic because we didn't know what was going on or how it would pan out. the second lockdown was born principally out of desire to save lives by delaying any surge in the virus until after everyone was vaccinated. In both cases there was also a desire to "protect the NHS".

Now we know what is happening, we have treatments, we have vaccines, we are substantially all vaccinated (and the ones that aren't have made their own decision and must be deemed prepared to meet the consequences)..The only remaining reason for lockdown would be to "protect the NHS". The idea would be to delay the virus spread - not to stop people getting it, but to ensure they get it over the next year or two rather than the next month. So they obviously have to ask, is it better to carry on like we did in the first half of last year so the NHS can work under the same conditions as it did last year? Or do we bite the bullet, let this milder variant infect and immunise people, and take the hit now to get back to normal sooner?

Quite. But the consequences will be bed blocking (see London hospitalization figures).

I am not in favour of a lockdown.

What I would ike to see is people who have declined the offer of a vaccine told to stay at home if they get Covid. It won't happen though because we let the NHS treat self-inflicted goons like Hans Blix treated Saddam. You won't do what we asked? OK then, we will simply carry on asking and in the meantime you can crack on with whatever.

I also warn again not beinf too bold about what we should do till the dust has settled over the next few days.

 

[Weststander]

This bit interests me - as what seems to be the narrative on the news at the moment is the concerns about what happens when omicron starts 'moving' into the older generation. I don't quite understand this - because it's almost as though there is a belief that it's only been circulating where the younger generations mix, and hasn't yet reached the older populations. I suppose this is based on London being the epicentre. Hospitalisations and infections do seem to be predominantly the younger generations.

But what if it's just the case that Omicron is circulating everywhere, and it's just that the older generations are not catching it, or showing no symptoms? If that happens, then it's good news.

Or the elderly are infected, but with mild symptoms or none at all, due to being tripled jabbed.

After four weeks of Omicron being present in the UK, without a lockdown, huge numbers of the elderly must’ve been exposed to it. Through family, events, transport, shopping, restaurants.

 

[LamieRobertson]

The monkey in the wrench is the uncertainty about what happens if boosters start to wane. The oldest were boosted first so any waning will happen first in the most vulnerable.

Prepare for shot 4 from February onwards, I suppose, and for it to be a twice yearly booster from here on in until the vaccines get better and can do the job with an annual booster like the flu.

If this is the case I’d like to see resources directed to setting up vaccination centres (for everything) and away from doctors surgeries (yes I know there are some temporary ones) ..so that the surgeries can concentrate on the stuff they were doing pre pandemic .. plus of course covid related illness

 

[dazzer6666]

DT extract…..good to finally see some commentary and data on this.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...hould-treated-caution-many-patients-admitted/

Hospitals are reporting high numbers of “incidental Covid” patients who are admitted for unrelated reasons, an NHS chief has said, warning hospitalisation data should be treated with caution.

Chris Hopson, the NHS Providers chief executive, stressed that Covid figures do not distinguish between those hospitalised because of the virus and other patients who test positive asymptomatically after arrival.

He cautioned against misinterpreting the 27 per cent rise in coronavirus hospital admissions nationally over the past week and the 45 per cent hike in London.

The number of people in hospital with coronavirus in England is less than half what it was this time last year, despite three times as many infections amid the omicron variant surge.

Official figures in recent weeks have suggested that up to one in three Covid patients may have caught the illness in hospital

 

[e77]

Again, if someone is asymptomatic and is only tested in hospital or gets Covid in hospital it is still a problem as they will have to be treated differently in hospital and can still infect other people, including hospital staff. They are still very much part of the total infected people.

Funny how the Telegraph don't mention reinfections don't count towards the figures though.

 

[dazzer6666]

Again, if someone is asymptomatic and is only tested in hospital or gets Covid in hospital it is still a problem as they will have to be treated differently in hospital and can still infect other people, including hospital staff. They are still very much part of the total infected people.

Funny how the Telegraph don't mention reinfections don't count towards the figures though.

That’s true, but rather than being an ‘infected’ stat, they are currently being included in the ‘admissions with covid’ data, which is (or at least has been) partly driving decision-making on NHS capacity, restrictions and potential lockdown. Should probably be split in the data for clarity.

 

[wehatepalace]

Again, if someone is asymptomatic and is only tested in hospital or gets Covid in hospital it is still a problem as they will have to be treated differently in hospital and can still infect other people, including hospital staff. They are still very much part of the total infected people.

Funny how the Telegraph don't mention reinfections don't count towards the figures though.

But as you know, the huge difference and main factor is, these people aren’t being admitted with severe illness caused by covid.

This in turn is a massive factor to be taken into consideration when our politicians are deciding whether to restrict peoples right to lead a normal life or not.

I honestly think once this wave passes and we have firm data to show that omicron does in fact pose much less of a threat to us regarding severity, it’s time to stop publishing daily figures, it’s fuelling panic, it’s dividing society and becoming ever more political by the day.

 

[dazzer6666]

But as you know, the huge difference and main factor is, these people aren’t being admitted with severe illness caused by covid.

This in turn is a massive factor to be taken into consideration when our politicians are deciding whether to restrict peoples right to lead a normal life or not.

I honestly think once this wave passes and we have firm data to show that omicron does in fact pose much less of a threat to us regarding severity, it’s time to stop publishing daily figures, it’s fuelling panic, it’s dividing society and becoming ever more political by the day.

Agree - keep the relevant figures (true, 'because of' Covid hospitalisations and 'because of' Covid deaths) but not infections.....also, suspect we'll see more like this over the coming days and weeks if the data on those figures stays manageable :

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...ter-covid-becomes-common-cold-says-scientist/

Extract :

Scrap Covid self-isolation and start living with virus, says scientist

Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at East Anglia, said people who test positive should be allowed to 'go about their normal lives'

Self-isolation for those catching coronavirus should be abandoned within months to allow the country to begin living with the virus, an expert has said.

Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine at the University of East Anglia, said that the Government should consider "scaling back" measures after Easter if the virus was under control.

His comments come after the US halved the recommended isolation period from 10 days to give for people without symptoms.

The Italian government is also considering shortening quarantine rules from seven to five days for people who had booster shots to minimise the risk of disruption to the economy from the spike in omicron cases after disease experts warned 10 million could end up isolating.

Last week, South Africa announced it will stop contact tracing and end quarantine for asymptomatic cases because containment of the virus is "no longer viable".

 

[The Wizard]

Day 5 for me, still no symptoms or any sign of infection, LTF test still positive.

Looks like I’m one of the lucky ones as most of the other people I know have cold like symptoms, severe aches and pains seem to be the most common thing I’ve heard. It’s weird as well because up until this I only knew 1 person who had even had covid, now about 6 people I know have it. (Not linked)

 

[LamieRobertson]

But as you know, the huge difference and main factor is, these people aren’t being admitted with severe illness caused by covid.

This in turn is a massive factor to be taken into consideration when our politicians are deciding whether to restrict peoples right to lead a normal life or not.

I honestly think once this wave passes and we have firm data to show that omicron does in fact pose much less of a threat to us regarding severity, it’s time to stop publishing daily figures, it’s fuelling panic, it’s dividing society and becoming ever more political by the day.

In addition …the effect on peoples mental health/ thinking as they go about their daily lives hearing headline figures dramatised by MSM…..also maybe it would garner more trust in stats that we are fed …etc etc

 

[LamieRobertson]

DT extract…..good to finally see some commentary and data on this.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...hould-treated-caution-many-patients-admitted/

Hospitals are reporting high numbers of “incidental Covid” patients who are admitted for unrelated reasons, an NHS chief has said, warning hospitalisation data should be treated with caution.

Chris Hopson, the NHS Providers chief executive, stressed that Covid figures do not distinguish between those hospitalised because of the virus and other patients who test positive asymptomatically after arrival.

He cautioned against misinterpreting the 27 per cent rise in coronavirus hospital admissions nationally over the past week and the 45 per cent hike in London.

The number of people in hospital with coronavirus in England is less than half what it was this time last year, despite three times as many infections amid the omicron variant surge.

Official figures in recent weeks have suggested that up to one in three Covid patients may have caught the illness in hospital

Interesting run of tweets by Chris Hopson

No agenda ..no sugar coating ..no scare mongering

https://twitter.com/chrisceohopson/status/1475540046677790723?s=21

 

[dazzer6666]

Interesting run of tweets by Chris Hopson

No agenda ..no sugar coating ..no scare mongering

https://twitter.com/chrisceohopson/status/1475540046677790723?s=21

Seems reasonable…….encouraging signs, still too early to tell, lack of staff through isolation may cause a significant issue……..

 

[e77]

That’s true, but rather than being an ‘infected’ stat, they are currently being included in the ‘admissions with covid’ data, which is (or at least has been) partly driving decision-making on NHS capacity, restrictions and potential lockdown. Should probably be split in the data for clarity.

That's the way the stats are collected and has been for a while now. It gives us a relative figure to, for example, what the position was this time last year. The fact that no one is seriously suggesting a further lockdown in England suggest they are interpreting the stats absolutely fine without the constant Walrussing from the Telegraph.