Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[dazzer6666]

This is irresponsible sh*tstirring from the DT

There was very limited data and still pleny of unknowns now. The potential has been there for things to go horribly pear shaped. There have been valid arguments on both sides and any decisions had massive potential consequences. Even now we don't know for certain whether the decision to hold off furher restrictions was the correct one or not. Turning this debate into an extension of the culture war (as we see endlessly here) just makes you look an arse IMO. Whether that is pretending that a few people having a meeting in a garden is the worse thing that anyone has ever done or the right wing fantasists stroking thekr own egos by making speeches in parliament about 'freedom'.

None of us really know anything and most of us are trying to do the right thing, trusting those that know a damn sight more than us and get through this as best we can.

Tend to agree.....it's still to early too call either way. There's misinformation in both directions and neither is helpful. Not sure why it makes me look an arse though - I didn't even comment.

Just popped into Tesco. Still plenty not wearing masks.

 

[LamieRobertson]

This is irresponsible sh*tstirring from the DT

There was very limited data and still pleny of unknowns now. The potential has been there for things to go horribly pear shaped. There have been valid arguments on both sides and any decisions had massive potential consequences. Even now we don't know for certain whether the decision to hold off furher restrictions was the correct one or not. Turning this debate into an extension of the culture war (as we see endlessly here) just makes you look an arse IMO. Whether that is pretending that a few people having a meeting in a garden is the worse thing that anyone has ever done or the right wing fantasists stroking thekr own egos by making speeches in parliament about 'freedom'.

None of us really know anything and most of us are trying to do the right thing, trusting those that know a damn sight more than us and get through this as best we can.

Trust without question? Hmmmm

Merry Xmas

 

[beorhthelm]

This is irresponsible sh*tstirring from the DT

There was very limited data and still pleny of unknowns now.

not really. firstly there were weeks of data from South Africa being ignored. second this is about the claimed 17 day lag, that we should wait that long (at least) until we see outcomes in data, when 10 days is the average. certain elements in healthcare have (naturally) asserted a precautionary approach, overlooking consequences. we want to trust those that know more, however often find they dont use that knowledge as objectively as we'd hope. we have repeatedly seen excessive claims and outlier statistics used to drive decision making - we were suppose to have millions of case and thousands in hospital a day according to some of the advisors.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Tend to agree.....it's still to early too call either way. There's misinformation in both directions and neither is helpful. Not sure why it makes me look an arse though - I didn't even comment.

Just popped into Tesco. Still plenty not wearing masks.

How can you bear to visit a supermarket a day after Xmas day
….as an aside my local is pretty compliant on face masks

 

[dazzer6666]

How can you bear to visit a supermarket a day after Xmas day
….as an aside my local is pretty compliant on face masks

LOL....walked past, Cafe is open [emoji16]

 

[The Wizard]

Three members of my house, older relative tested positive Monday, her partner and closest contact is still negative. I’ve tested positive this morning after a negative PCR test on Thursday and negative all week on LFT.

I’m in my twenties and the good news is I have zero symptoms and my older relative has a mild cough but nothing worse than a normal cold, touch wood.

Merry Christmas eh

Still no symptoms for me.

Both those I live with now have it unsurprisingly, my other older relative has also tested positive but very minor symptoms and the symptoms on the initial ‘infectee’ (or the grinch who stole Christmas as I call her ) seem to be receding, she’s now on the 6th day of symptoms, very stuffed up nose and the cough is lingering, which is interesting as the initial reports about omicron suggest a cough isn’t one of the most common symptoms

 

[Motogull]

:d

[tweet]1475050010618351621[/tweet]

 

[highflyer]

Tend to agree.....it's still to early too call either way. There's misinformation in both directions and neither is helpful. Not sure why it makes me look an arse though - I didn't even comment. .

Sorry for lack of clarity that wasn't aimed at you.

 

[dazzer6666]

Sorry for lack of clarity that wasn't aimed at you.

No worries…… I’m genuinely interested in how the data evolves, and how it gets reported and manipulated (either way). Both ‘sides’ guilty of trying to serve their own purposes

 

[dazzer6666]

Interesting comments on football crowds (DT extract)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/footbal...premier-league-government-keep-stadiums-full/

Clubs in fear of being forced behind closed doors

Football and Government have been urged by scientists to hold their nerve on keeping stadiums full even if ministers are forced to launch restrictions elsewhere as Covid cases soar.

Premier League clubs remain in fear of being forced behind closed doors this week after the UK Health Security Agency warned it was too early to downgrade the threat from the new strain.

However, after UKHSA chief executive Dr Jenny Harries described a "glimmer" of hope around data showing omicron can be less severe, public-health experts believe sporting venues should be safe.

"Stadiums are not inherently risky places," said Professor Robert Dingwall, a Nottingham Trent University sociologist who has advised Government on Covid policy.

The main risk to fans is in their choice of transport or whether they visit a bar before or after the match, he explained. "Given this, and the early, if still uncertain, indications that omicron causes less severe disease than delta, it is hard to see how additional restrictions could be justified. Indeed, some of those that are in place have such a weak evidence base that they should be reconsidered at an early opportunity. More data might change this view but that is unlikely to be available until after the New Year."

So far it is outbreaks among players that have been the main cause of chaos in England's top tier. The busy Boxing Day schedule has already been hit with three postponements, following outbreaks at Leeds, Watford and Everton.

However, there is hope that the latest Covid crisis will not lead to venue shutouts. The UKHSA estimates that someone with Omicron is between 31 per cent and 45 per cent less likely to attend A&E and 50 per cent to 70 per cent less likely to be admitted to hospital than an individual with the Delta variant.

If restrictions are forced upon England, Prof Keith Neal, of the University of Nottingham, suggested a compromise for sports around Covid passports that would only allow spectators who are either fully jabbed having recovered from recent infection.

"No one else uses lateral-flow tests in a passport," he said. "Only fully vaccinated or recent infections is what the rest of Europe uses....They don’t need to check everyone at an event, just enough to be a deterrent to getting caught and big fines."

After Prime Minister Boris Johnson resisted any further restrictions for England over Christmas, Monday is the first opportunity for Government to seriously consider if changes in sport and the wider community are needed. Prof Neal, who has 25 years of experience in the research of the epidemiology of infectious diseases at Nottingham, agreed the "main problem" for major sporting events remains public transport.

 

[Dick Swiveller]

I see a text about boosters has loads of morons who don't understand GDPR bitching about breaches of GDPR.

 

[vegster]

This is irresponsible sh*tstirring from the DT

There was very limited data and still pleny of unknowns now. The potential has been there for things to go horribly pear shaped. There have been valid arguments on both sides and any decisions had massive potential consequences. Even now we don't know for certain whether the decision to hold off furher restrictions was the correct one or not. Turning this debate into an extension of the culture war (as we see endlessly here) just makes you look an arse IMO. Whether that is pretending that a few people having a meeting in a garden is the worse thing that anyone has ever done or the right wing fantasists stroking thekr own egos by making speeches in parliament about 'freedom'.

None of us really know anything and most of us are trying to do the right thing, trusting those that know a damn sight more than us and get through this as best we can.

Hilarious that the Daily Telegraph has found its voice over " Dodgy Data "....they had no problem with publishing no end of inaccuracies regarding how wonderful Brexit would be!

 

[Bakero]

Anyone know if they're doing walk-in vaccinations at the Racecourse? Is it open today? I've rung the phone line and it tells me their office is closed until 9am 27th December

 

[The Wizard]

Still no symptoms on day 3, the only ‘symptom’ I had was the night before my positive test when I felt fatigue but that may have been a coincidence, annoying as I feel full of energy. Went for a PCR test to confirm my LTF yesterday as required and felt like a walking breathing biohazard

 

[vegster]

Still no symptoms on day 3, the only ‘symptom’ I had was the night before my positive test when I felt fatigue but that may have been a coincidence, annoying as I feel full of energy. Went for a PCR test to confirm my LTF yesterday as required and felt like a walking breathing biohazard [emoji38]ol:

A friend of Mrs V went down with it last Monday, he was WFH and was very careful about wearing a mask and limiting contacts...

.he tracked back his recent movements and worked out he caught it when he went for his booster jab, either in the Vaccination centre or on the bus there and back...

 

[dazzer6666]

Probably paywalled, but interesting take on where we might be going…….refers to ‘alternative modelling’ ie not simply trying to find the worst case, but looking to understand other impCTS

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...ection-lockdown-could-pay-big-dividends-2022/

Couple of extracts, but really need to read the whole article for context

The analysis from JP Morgan is striking because its base case is one Sage did not present: a scenario where no more restrictions are needed and boosters save the day, leading to a political triumph for Boris Johnson. It envisages Britain pulling through without cause for another lockdown because boosters have already done enough to keep hospitalisations below those of the last peak. Its research note looks around Europe and struggles to see any other country so well placed to ride all this out.

JP Morgan’s case is fairly simple. The omicron surge has been concentrated amongst the young: and, as we know, risk lies with the over-60s. But an extraordinary 93 per cent of them have already been boosted, giving high protection from either catching omicron or getting seriously sick from it – the highest figure of any major country. This time last year, lockdown was used as a tool to buy time to vaccinate the at-risk age groups. Now, we enter the omicron wave with that work largely done.

Britain is also leading the world on two other fronts. The first is the new national sport of nostril swabbing: we’re getting through millions of lateral flow tests each day, with another 700 million on the way. This is more per capita than any country on Earth. It is expensive, but it is helping us to achieve what the goal has always supposedly been: living with Covid. Between vaccines and testing, we’re staving off lockdowns. The sick are quickly isolating, while the healthy go about their lives with more confidence.

Then come the antivirals, the wonder-drugs from Pfizer and Merck shown to stop serious illness in its tracks. The success rate is astonishing: molnupiravir cuts the risk of Covid hospitalisation or death by 30 per cent and paxlovid by 90 per cent for those whose underlying conditions make them vulnerable. There are about 1.3 million such people in Britain and they are each being sent a PCR test kit in case they get ill. If they test positive, antivirals are delivered to them quickly in the hope of keeping them safe and out of hospital. Britain has placed one of the world’s biggest orders for these antivirals. Again, expensive – but cheaper than a national lockdown.

….and…..

Omicron could still prove just as dangerous as suggested by those Sage “scenarios” of up to 6,000 deaths a day. But a happier scenario is also coming into view, and real-world evidence is backing it up – that Britain gets through this with minimal deaths and no more restrictions, thanks to the most successful booster programme in Europe. This is why the PM is waiting an extra week: he’d like to see if his jabs work. Covid has been full of surprises. This could be one of them.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Wes Streeting MP [MENTION=3791]Wes[/MENTION]streeting
After a difficult 2021, people will be relieved to see no new restrictions ahead of the new year, but we need reassurance that this is the right decision being taken for the right reasons and that schools and the NHS will be able to cope.

Labour are starting to move away from calls for restrictions it seems.

 

[The Wizard]

A friend of Mrs V went down with it last Monday, he was WFH and was very careful about wearing a mask and limiting contacts...

.he tracked back his recent movements and worked out he caught it when he went for his booster jab, either in the Vaccination centre or on the bus there and back...

I do think at this point everyone is going to catch Omicron, a lot of people I know who have avoided covid since the beginning have now caught it, it seems so contagious it’s going to be like trying to avoid catching a cold. Thankfully with the anti virals, vaccines and other treatments I think Omicron actually spells the end of the pandemic.

I still have no symptoms, luckily. PCR test confirmed my positive result yesterday.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

No worries…… I’m genuinely interested in how the data evolves, and how it gets reported and manipulated (either way). Both ‘sides’ guilty of trying to serve their own purposes

My job is teaching and research so the evolution of a view about something is critical to half of what I do. I don't have any problem with people who have access to data describing that data and, in a 'free society' one expects journalists to ask questions, some good, some provocative and some ill-informed.

Because we don't yet know how omicrom may affect hospital beds, it is understandable that people will speculate, with more or less caution according to judgement, and present this in soft or hard light depending on the context (questioner and question).

My view is that it is possible that there will be problems in hospitals (based on the data on hospitalization in London) and that the next set of figures will be very telling.

Meanwhile....the nipper tested positive on the 24th, and Mrs T tested positive on Boxing day. She has no temperature, and no loss of taste, but has felt very achy and weak, with the back of the throat working as a snot machine. I suspect I will find that I'm positive shortly. I could barely taste my tea this morning (albeit had no issues with a banana). Unlike the last 2 waves, this time I'm much less concerned if I'm infected. That's because in my judgement the data seem to suggest omicron is not anything like as dangerous, especially to someone triple jabbed (like me).

It is fine for people to do modeling and fine for this to be discussed. But I still think it's too early to say where this will go over the next few weeks. So it would be foolish to abandon caution.

 

[Motogull]

Meanwhile....the nipper tested positive on the 24th, and Mrs T tested positive on Boxing day. She has no temperature, and no loss of taste, but has felt very achy and weak, with the back of the throat working as a snot machine. I suspect I will find that I'm positive shortly. I could barely taste my tea this morning (albeit had no issues with a banana). Unlike the last 2 waves, this time I'm much less concerned if I'm infected. That's because in my judgement the data seem to suggest omicron is not anything like as dangerous, especially to someone triple jabbed (like me).

Fingers crossed for you all.