[News] Lockdown lifting - when?

[LlcoolJ]

A Spanish news website as well as a global statistical body, mention as many as 57% of Spanish covid deaths occurring in care homes and not recorded as such. Spanish police are investigated over 100 care homes where the staff left the elderly to die.

Yeah that article is pretty shocking in how it describes exactly that happening. Grim.

 

[dazzer6666]

Genuine question, have they closed them?

No - still a handful of flights in/out. Mostly repatriation (or incoming farm workers) I believe.

 

[crodonilson]

Also, in hindsight, allowing the Cheltenham Festival to go ahead.

Although interestingly, Ireland’s subsequent covid stats are low, despite 10,000’s of race goers from the ROI attending.

To date I think only 1 person has tested positive for covid-19 in ROI who attended Cheltenham.

 

[Weststander]

Plus, re the above very sad article from Spain, it's the same case in Italy where thousands of care home deaths and deaths in remote villages etc have gone untested.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-coronavirus-death-toll-is-far-higher-than-reported-11585767179

I'm no fan of this government (or Cummings) but I do think they are between a rock and a hard place on the issue of reporting the statistics.

To start with they were chastised for "ignoring" deaths in care homes. But then when they try to get the most accurate figures for total deaths there's shock and horror that our figures are so high. In comparison to other countries whose stats are only hospital deaths (or it's "unclear" which deaths they do actually include).

Factor in the clear fact that many, many deaths that MAY have been the result of the virus have gone unrecorded (certainly in Spain and Italy) and you're comparing peas with gravy.

I actually trust our figures from the ONS to be the most accurate we can get at the moment. I can't say the same for some other countries.

The UK have played fairly by releasing all hospital deaths WITH covid (a higher figure), then throughout the ONS have published other settings deaths which take far longer to gather even in France, and finally it was made plain yesterday that the UK will accept the even higher figure of deaths above the norm, when academics across the globe used an agreed formula to calculate that for every nation.

In addition, the UK also publish deaths by date of death stats.

The smoking gun of 10,000’s covered up deaths in the UK was hyperbole. Not least, that would take every single scientist and epidemiologist in the 4 nations to be sympathetic to the Tories or SNP, not one whistle blowing to The Sun or The Times.

 

[A1X]

They come along along about once every 5 years and are happening more frequently

I must have missed that pandemic in 2015. You'd have thought it would be bigger news?

 

[Rugrat]

For example New Zealand has nearly eradicated the disease but is highly reliant on tourism - what do they do, stop tourists coming for ten years so that the virus doesn't re-emerge?

I'm not sure they are any more reliant on it than we are (5.6% of their GDP) but tourism is definitely one of the biggest issues they and others (including ourselves) will need to grapple with.

There's only going to be so much testing that can be undertaken at port of entry and that will never (I doubt) be able to identify if someone just picked it up in the previous x hours/days. It'll be interesting to see how the first countries with a dependency on tourism tackle it

 

[Guinness Boy]

A wealth of things to cover on this thread and too many people to quote, but here's my tuppence worth.

1) WFH - yes, working from home can be great and I'm sure we will see more of it in the future but 24/7 WFH is not a panacea for Covid nor is it desirable for any organisation. I used to love working from home a day or two a week as a change to early mornings heading to client site or an office in North West London. But working from home 5 days a week has been a disaster. Both my wife and I have WFH since 23 March and with the kids at home as well the tension has, at times, been unbearable. The kids have had to share my personal laptop to do school work (more of this later) meaning I am on my work one from 7am to 7pm. I had almost no rest at all while I was sicker than I realised and my only down time involved arguing with the wife over broadband bandwidth / speed or whose turn it was to bail out of a conference call to feed everyone lunch. In the last week I've signed off work with health and everyone has now found a routine and become friends again. I'm dreading going back tomorrow. I would go back to commuting at the drop of a hat even though my commute would either take me round the M25 or on the tube past Northwick Park.

2) Schools. Also an unmitigated disaster. My kids are working 2 to 3 hours a day with no teacher interaction. The only time we hear from the school is if they have not completed a task but normally that just means they have not ticked a check box on one of about 5 different apps to say the work has been done - they have actually done it. My son is doing GCSEs in three years and this level of education, across the country will see lower grades even for high achievers and inequality reinforced between those with parents with time / money / tech / educational backgrounds and those without. I would say that schools have to be the first to go back but what does that do for teachers? Puts them in a very vulnerable position, that's what. They're not going to have PPE. It may need something like the Chinese body temperature / red/green/amber app to get schools back. When they do then it may be all the universities in the country are broke anyway. We are quickly choosing between infecting key workers and bringing up a generation of morons.

3) General lockdown. Agree with [MENTION=12101]Mellotron[/MENTION] it'll flex back and forth but "normal" is a fair way off. IMO it will need two out of three of a vaccine, a reliable, scalable antibody test and herd immunity. Good versions of one of the first two things should speed up or at least confirm the third.

 

[daveinplzen]

What puts us a couple of weeks behind Dave ? Do you have a more effective lockdown over there ? I’m just wondering what our Government can do.

State of emergency was declared on March 16th. Unless going to work or getting essential supplies, stay at home. If you are out you have to wear a mask. Only small food shops and chemists were open. Everything else shut. Borders were closed. First week army patrols. Other small shops were allowed to open on Monday. but not big stores or malls. I think the difference here was it was law and not advice.
I took pics on way to work yesterday, for something that couldnt be done at home and crossed old town square, see pic, and not many peopke out at all. When I see pics of Brighton, the difference is huge.

 

[loz]

I touched on it earlier...But see below.

Between December 2014 and March 2015 there were 44,000 excess winter deaths, 2.5 times higher than the record low of the previous winter, and the highest number since the winter of 1999/2000 when flu levels were very high.

Daily deaths peaked on 1 January 2015, 35% higher than the five-year average
Deaths peaked on 1 January last winter when daily deaths were 35% higher than the five-year average. The first part of 2015 (5 to 11 January) also saw weekly deaths at 15,000, the highest number in any given week since the last two weeks of December 1999 and first two weeks of January 2000, when flu levels were very high.

Daily deaths were above the five-year average on 304 out of 365 days in 2014/15. There were only two days during the winter period where daily deaths fell below the five year average, and on both occasions, the difference was less than fifteen deaths.

 

[blue-shifted]

State of emergency was declared on March 16th. Unless going to work or getting essential supplies, stay at home. If you are out you have to wear a mask. Only small food shops and chemists were open. Everything else shut. Borders were closed. First week army patrols. Other small shops were allowed to open on Monday. but not big stores or malls. I think the difference here was it was law and not advice.
I took pics on way to work yesterday, for something that couldnt be done at home and crossed old town square, see pic, and not many peopke out at all. When I see pics of Brighton, the difference is huge.

But don't believe everything you see in the tabloids

 

[darkwolf666]

State of emergency was declared on March 16th. Unless going to work or getting essential supplies, stay at home. If you are out you have to wear a mask. Only small food shops and chemists were open. Everything else shut. Borders were closed. First week army patrols. Other small shops were allowed to open on Monday. but not big stores or malls. I think the difference here was it was law and not advice.
I took pics on way to work yesterday, for something that couldnt be done at home and crossed old town square, see pic, and not many peopke out at all. When I see pics of Brighton, the difference is huge.

Silly question, you say only "small" food shops were open - how did people get provisions, it was mayhem here, and that was with the supermarkets staying open - admittedly ravaged by a plague of locusts who stripped the shelves bare.

 

[AmexRuislip]

But don't believe everything you see in the tabloids

Have you seen the news, that they've discovered a new lake in Scotland.
Its going to be named Loch Doon

 

[LlcoolJ]

A wealth of things to cover on this thread and too many people to quote, but here's my tuppence worth.

1) WFH - yes, working from home can be great and I'm sure we will see more of it in the future but 24/7 WFH is not a panacea for Covid nor is it desirable for any organisation. I used to love working from home a day or two a week as a change to early mornings heading to client site or an office in North West London. But working from home 5 days a week has been a disaster. Both my wife and I have WFH since 23 March and with the kids at home as well the tension has, at times, been unbearable. The kids have had to share my personal laptop to do school work (more of this later) meaning I am on my work one from 7am to 7pm. I had almost no rest at all while I was sicker than I realised and my only down time involved arguing with the wife over broadband bandwidth / speed or whose turn it was to bail out of a conference call to feed everyone lunch. In the last week I've signed off work with health and everyone has now found a routine and become friends again. I'm dreading going back tomorrow. I would go back to commuting at the drop of a hat even though my commute would either take me round the M25 or on the tube past Northwick Park.

2) Schools. Also an unmitigated disaster. My kids are working 2 to 3 hours a day with no teacher interaction. The only time we hear from the school is if they have not completed a task but normally that just means they have not ticked a check box on one of about 5 different apps to say the work has been done - they have actually done it. My son is doing GCSEs in three years and this level of education, across the country will see lower grades even for high achievers and inequality reinforced between those with parents with time / money / tech / educational backgrounds and those without. I would say that schools have to be the first to go back but what does that do for teachers? Puts them in a very vulnerable position, that's what. They're not going to have PPE. It may need something like the Chinese body temperature / red/green/amber app to get schools back. When they do then it may be all the universities in the country are broke anyway. We are quickly choosing between infecting key workers and bringing up a generation of morons.

3) General lockdown. Agree with [MENTION=12101]Mellotron[/MENTION] it'll flex back and forth but "normal" is a fair way off. IMO it will need two out of three of a vaccine, a reliable, scalable antibody test and herd immunity. Good versions of one of the first two things should speed up or at least confirm the third.

Sorry to hear that GB. We've had the opposite experience with the school thing. They've been really good with supplying the work and with almost immediate feedback (my son is Y8).

Mrs is also WFH (I do anyway) and although she doesn't like it, it's working fine. It helps though that she's been given a laptop to work on and I use the PC in my office so the sprog has free reign on our laptop. Plus no broadband issues.

As I said on another thread, my only gripe is that I'm used to having the house to myself most days so sometimes I wish they'd **** off and leave me to work in peace. But it's no big deal at all.

 

[wellquickwoody]

What puts us a couple of weeks behind Dave ? Do you have a more effective lockdown over there ? I’m just wondering what our Government can do.

Really enforce the rules. Ours in Oz are looser than those in the UK. But those caught breaking them (just in Victoria, 5 million people) between 500 and 1000 people per day get a $1600 fine. Bit different to sixty quid, reduced to thirty if you pay on time.

 

[daveinplzen]

Silly question, you say only "small" food shops were open - how did people get provisions, it was mayhem here, and that was with the supermarkets staying open - admittedly ravaged by a plague of locusts who stripped the shelves bare.

After about a week they let a number of supermarkets open, but no locusts. Well stocked. M&S cant open so im deprived of decent tea but thats all im suffering from really

 

[LlcoolJ]

I took pics on way to work yesterday, for something that couldnt be done at home and crossed old town square, see pic, and not many peopke out at all. When I see pics of Brighton, the difference is huge.

My brother in law works in Sheffield city centre and took some photos yesterday. It was completely deserted and there was a pair of ducks walking up what is usually the busiest shopping street. I think the media are twisting this one a bit about how many people are flouting the rules. There will always be some dickheads obviously, but almost everyone (here at least) seems to be doing the right thing.

 

[daveinplzen]

My brother in law works in Sheffield city centre and took some photos yesterday. It was completely deserted and there was a pair of ducks walking up what is usually the busiest shopping street. I think the media are twisting this one a bit about how many people are flouting the rules. There will always be some dickheads obviously, but almost everyone (here at least) seems to be doing the right thing.

Now I believe so, but it took some time I think. When did lockdown start there?

 

[Guinness Boy]

Sorry to hear that GB. We've had the opposite experience with the school thing. They've been really good with supplying the work and with almost immediate feedback (my son is Y8).

Mrs is also WFH (I do anyway) and although she doesn't like it, it's working fine. It helps though that she's been given a laptop to work on and I use the PC in my office so the sprog has free reign on our laptop. Plus no broadband issues.

As I said on another thread, my only gripe is that I'm used to having the house to myself most days so sometimes I wish they'd **** off and leave me to work in peace. But it's no big deal at all.

Cheers, and no worries.

I had thought this situation pisses on everyone's chips. I've got a couple of mates who are furloughed and loved it to start, but now bored. I've got another couple who are looking at businesses that normally make a fortune in the summer not making a penny. I'm sure some key workers would love to be working from home whereas I just want to break the door down and jump on a train to see my clients. The grass is always greener and all that. With that in mind I'm glad it's working out for a few of us!

 

[LlcoolJ]

Now I believe so, but it took some time I think. When did lockdown start there?

23rd March. And it was overnight. Our local row of shops / bars / restaurants went from rammed to ghost town the next day. I can only account for the small part of one city where I live obviously because I haven't bloody been anywhere else since.

But I must admit, the photos my mate sent me yesterday surprised me. In comparison to some of the stuff I've read.







The Moor, Division Street and Fargate. Three of the busiest streets in the city centre usually.

 

[Cowfold Seagull]

Errrrm, what did the OP do to deserve that response? Someone obviously shat on your cornflakes this morning.

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I wish someone would.