From what I saw earlier today, the expectation was 0.5% via an emergency meeting within the next 2 weeks (taking us to 2.75% already) and then a whopping 1% at least in their Nov meeting (to 3.75% or more). Question will be whether the BoE thinks they can wait until that Nov meeting to make the bigger move, which will depend a lot on how the markets react to a smaller emergency move now.
Edit: I see the markets are now assuming a 0.75% increase *before the end of this week* and that is what is driving the recovery of the pound so far today. If that doesn't happen, or does happen but is weaker, the pound will start to drop again. But some pundits are suggesting the BoE will be reluctant to intervene because of prior history of what can go wrong if they don't get it right (Black Wednesday). problem is, not acting is an act in itself and will also result in a reaction from the markets. Something will need to give, only question is whether it will break or bend when it does.
This prediction for the value of sterling is unsettling given the impact it will have on inflation and therefore BoE rates.
[tweet]1574368707069022212[/tweet]
Think we're headed for a tug-of-war between the BoE and their "must keep inflation down" mantra and the government with their new "let's burn money to create growth" mantra. Don't think anyone in the UK comes out of that a winner.
Edit to add this tweet that I saw after writing the above:
[tweet]1574324351150837760[/tweet]
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